Wages of Win Projects Celtics at 38.9 Wins

[LooseCannon]

According to their very early projections, they have the Celtics 9th in the east.

Their numbers are based on players under contract and are a bit wonky, as they would admit.  There are obviously problems (a lot of which have to do with projected playing time) when you predict that the average team will have 42.6 wins.  That's what happens when you use a brute force method.

I do find it amusing that their numbers have the Celtics with more projected wins than the Knicks or Nets (and the trade is incorporated into their numbers).  The Rockets are, by far, the best projected team, with the Clippers, Thunder, and Spurs also projected for more wins than the Heat.  Meanwhile Phoenix is abysmally bad.

While I think that even they would admit that the early projections are nutty and that there are still a lot of transactions to be made that can affect those numbers, I think the numbers mean that anyone who thinks the Celtics could end up close to a playoff berth is an optimist, but not a crazy, unrealistic optimist.

[Evantime34]

My ideal scenario would be us finishing 9th in the east with our young players taking big steps forward, then us miraculously getting in the top 3 of the draft lottery while everyone outside of Boston screams conspiracy.

Just looked at the list, as a statistician if you come up with a ranking of Atlanta at two and Toronto at 3 it might be time to re-evaluate your metrics.

[TeamGreen.dm]

According to their very early projections, they have the Celtics 9th in the east.

Their numbers are based on players under contract and are a bit wonky, as they would admit.  There are obviously problems (a lot of which have to do with projected playing time) when you predict that the average team will have 42.6 wins.  That's what happens when you use a brute force method.

I do find it amusing that their numbers have the Celtics with more projected wins than the Knicks or Nets (and the trade is incorporated into their numbers).  The Rockets are, by far, the best projected team, with the Clippers, Thunder, and Spurs also projected for more wins than the Heat.  Meanwhile Phoenix is abysmally bad.

While I think that even they would admit that the early projections are nutty and that there are still a lot of transactions to be made that can affect those numbers, I think the numbers mean that anyone who thinks the Celtics could end up close to a playoff berth is an optimist, but not a crazy, unrealistic optimist.

Wow that seems really high too me. I would guess with our current roster we get about 28 wins.

[LooseCannon]

My ideal scenario would be us finishing 9th in the east with our young players taking big steps forward, then us miraculously getting in the top 3 of the draft lottery while everyone outside of Boston screams conspiracy.

The miracle ideal scenario (short of a cinderella run to Banner 18) would be Atlanta and the Nets finishing in the lottery and winning the top two picks (with the Celtics getting the worse of those two picks) while the upstart Boston youths sneak into the playoffs at #8 and either upset the Heat or take them to a shocking seven games that wound them enough that they don't win the title.

[Atzar]

Unfortunately I kind of agree with this.  I think we've removed ourselves from the playoff picture, but we're not bad enough to hope for a great pick.

[BleedGreen1989]

I think that sounds about right.

I think people are crazy if they think a healthy Celtics team will win less than 30 games in the Eastern Conference.

[Yogi]

1.  Rajon Rondo
2.  Avery Bradley
3.  Courtney Lee
4.  Jeff Green
5.  Gerald Wallace
6.  Brandon Bass
7.  Jared Sullinger
8.  Kelly Olynyk

That's a quality 8-man rotation.  I'll put those 8 guys against any other team in the NBA.

[clover]

1.  Rajon Rondo
2.  Avery Bradley
3.  Courtney Lee
4.  Jeff Green
5.  Gerald Wallace
6.  Brandon Bass
7.  Jared Sullinger
8.  Kelly Olynyk

That's a quality 8-man rotation.  I'll put those 8 guys against any other team in the NBA.

I'd put Iverson in there instead of Bass, whom I think they'll be able to move.

[steefp2]

1.  Rajon Rondo
2.  Avery Bradley
3.  Courtney Lee
4.  Jeff Green
5.  Gerald Wallace
6.  Brandon Bass
7.  Jared Sullinger
8.  Kelly Olynyk

That's a quality 8-man rotation.  I'll put those 8 guys against any other team in the NBA.

Not to be a jerk but you'd lose half or more of those games. I like our young players and i'm excited for the future but gotta stay realistic.

[Yogi]

Not to be a jerk but you'd lose half or more of those games. I like our young players and i'm excited for the future but gotta stay realistic.

Having an opinion doesn't make you a jerk.  It can, however, make you wrong. 

[Yogi]

I'd put Iverson in there instead of Bass, whom I think they'll be able to move.

A lot of people under estimate Bass.  That's not new.  He's vital to our defense next year.  I love Iverson, but will he be ready to contribute next year?

[kgainez]

1.  Rajon Rondo
2.  Avery Bradley
3.  Courtney Lee
4.  Jeff Green
5.  Gerald Wallace
6.  Brandon Bass
7.  Jared Sullinger
8.  Kelly Olynyk

That's a quality 8-man rotation.  I'll put those 8 guys against any other team in the NBA.

I agree that Iverson needs to be in there
No love for Pressey? I definitely think he could be 3rd string
Only issue now is how all this works together, especially in our Forwards area.

RR/AB/Pressey
AB/Lee
Gerald Wallace/Jeff/KO
Jeff/ Sully / Bass or KO
KO/Iverson/Bass

Like...what?
Crazy

[Nerf DPOY]

1.  Rajon Rondo
2.  Avery Bradley
3.  Courtney Lee
4.  Jeff Green
5.  Gerald Wallace
6.  Brandon Bass
7.  Jared Sullinger
8.  Kelly Olynyk

That's a quality 8-man rotation.  I'll put those 8 guys against any other team in the NBA.

I'll go ahead and be a jerk. Sure, you can put those 8 up against any other team in the NBA. I agree with you in the same way one could say "In the U.S, you can kill someone..."

[Smitty77]

This has NO merit at all!!!  The Nets and the Knicks winning ONLY 37 and 37.6 games and the Lakers winning 44.9.  That is actually one of the funniest things I have seen in quite some time!!

Smitty77

[LooseCannon]

1.  Rajon Rondo
2.  Avery Bradley
3.  Courtney Lee
4.  Jeff Green
5.  Gerald Wallace
6.  Brandon Bass
7.  Jared Sullinger
8.  Kelly Olynyk

That's a quality 8-man rotation.  I'll put those 8 guys against any other team in the NBA.

Not to be a jerk but you'd lose half or more of those games. I like our young players and i'm excited for the future but gotta stay realistic.

39 wins would be losing half or more of those games.