Least Harper Jr had a good game.
have to admit I thought Brad could have picked up another PG to back up White and PP but to be honest, I think Harper is a more than competent third string PG
Yep, the benefit of getting an another PG to be the third string isn?t outweighed by the benefit of resetting the luxury tax and being able to spend big in 2027-28 onwards. It sucks that we didn?t sign anybody but we will all be thanking Brad for his foresight two years from now when we have an open checkbook.
I have a hard time with the financial stuff with the nba . So we can spend big on 27-28? Do you mean adding another very good player or retaining what we have? Do you have any players you have thought about that would be cool and possible to acquire financially ?
It's really less to do with free agents, which we won't be in a position to sign as we are over the cap. It's more about retaining what we have, because we will have a number of players currently on $2.5m vet mins who will be eligible for extensions that season. Coincidentally, to reset the luxury tax rate, you need to be under it for two years in a row. So if we duck under it this season, we need to do the same next season, then that repeater rate resets. The logic that Brad and the FO are using is
"we want our next spending window, in 2027-28, to happen without repeater penalties". Here is our cap situation right now, where we would be under the tax line by approx. $637k if we don't sign anyone else that would cause us to spend $637k in the season:
(click to enlarge)
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/yearlyEveryone's probably sick of seeing this thing because it shows our spending limitations but this will become a much nicer picture in 2027-28 when we have no choice but to spend - to retain our existing players who will be up for sigificant extensions starting from 2027-28. I circled them - Queta, Walsh, Garza in 2027-28, then Hugo and PP, you can see the extension deadlines on Spotrac for all of them.
To cut a long story short and keep it simple, let's assume 2 scenarios - Scenario 1, where they duck the tax this year and next and reset, meaning they become a
non-repeater tax team, and Scenario 2, where they sign a big for $1m to cover for Vuc, and end up going over the tax by $500k. Small amount, but it means we go into 2027-28 as a
repeater tax team. Then in 2027-28 let's assume they add $30m to the payroll just signing existing players to extensions (since we can do that, owning their Bird rights), and an additional $20m in 2028-29.
Here are the equivalent tax rates and payroll costs:
(click to enlarge)
So in my example, the difference in tax rates is 3x for non repeater and 4.5x for repeater. Which works out to be a difference of $240m in tax non repeater vs $360m in tax repeater. That's $120m just in that example.
And the repeater rate is a marginal rate that significantly increases as you add more payroll. So if those extensions end up costing more, that 4.5x will be higher, maybe 5.5x, 6.5x depending how high you go (maybe Pritchard asks for $30m instead of $20m, maybe Q ends up becoming a 15ppg/10rpg starting center, maybe Hugo ends up worth more than $5m. Those are all unknowns that they have to plan for.
TLDR:So how does this help us, other than saving Chisholm $120m? Role players quickly become unaffordable. In my example, if Q cost $10m to sign, his real cost non-repeater tax is $30m, with us paying repeater tax it becomes $45m. Think of how many role players we have to sign because we developed them and they are now worth more than the $2.5m we're paying them. So we get to keep them instead of letting them walk. And because we get to keep them, we can trade them for the nice shiny toys everyone wants, because that would be the first year we would be over the 2nd apron, so we can still aggregate players in trade.
That's the true value of ducking under the tax. It gives Brad so much more flexibility when we have to spend, vs now when, let's be realistic, our changes for the championship, while pretty good, will probably be better in 2027-28. Because by then teams like OKC will be facing the same issues we faced this year - ballooning payroll, over the 2nd apron, significant roster building penalties. As fans we want the best, most expensive team every year, but it's really about approaching the next big spending window without repeater tax penalties.
Note: I averaged the tax rates for ease of explaining, they are actually a progressive marginal tax based on different levels of spending.
Topic: Celtics (43-21) at Spurs (47-17) Game #65 3/10/26 (Read 4060 times)