2. Yes, I want those extra 15 wins. Why? Because winning breeds more winning an losing breeds more losing.
That is not true in the NBA. Do you have any recent examples? If you do, I have many more examples to the contrary.
And super young future superstars almost never win rings. Established superstars that have bee around a while win rings.
And how are you going to get them? You have to be a bit more specific.
So get that extra 15 wins. Manuever salary around and get cap space and go get an established superstar to add to this core to win a championship. THAT is way smarter than tanking to get a kid that MIGHT be good, MIGHT be great, MIGHT be good enough to become a superstar, and MIGHT be around long enough to win the team a championship years and years later. Why? Because the fact remains that even the greatest of players usually will take 7-8 years to be mature, strong, talented and lucky enough and remain with the team long enough to win that championship.
Under the new CBA, star players will most definitely choose to extend with the home team over any other team for their first big contract.
You´re musing about some theoretical "best way to rebuild", but talk only in generalities which, just like the people who believe tanking is the only option, are just not always true.
Let´s talk about the things we
can change, not stuff that might or might not happen.
If you want to talk in generalities, here they are:
- to win in the NBA, you need quality players.
- to get quality players, you need to either a) draft them, b) trade for them or c) sign them as FA.
- we can agree or disagree about Boston being a "destination city", but there´s strong evidence to believe it´s not. True or not, any rebuilding plan involving FA signings has to get into the specifics of "who" you´re going to sign.
You can´t simply say "we go for Durant and LeBron in FA". Common sense tells you it´s not that easy. This makes it just as much of a crapshoot as the draft, with the difference being that you can get good consolation prices in the draft, if you´re doing your job correctly. It is certainly not viable enough to be considered a "plan". This leaves us with options a) and b)
- to draft players, you need draft picks.
- if you want to trade for a star player, it means the other team has to be willing to give this star player up. Pretty much the only situation where a team is willing to trade a player that could win a championship for them is if the player doesn´t want to play for this team anymore. Regardless of the circumstances, the trading team will want to get something of value in return, so-called "assets".
In other words, this team will find itself at the start of this bullet point section, in exactly the same position we are currently in.
- since the "value" of these assets lies in the eye of the beholder, and depends on the direction the receiving team wants to go in, it is fair to assume that young players with potential and draft picks, which could turn into this kind of player, are the only trade commodity that has any value to them.
In other words, it simply doesn´t make sense for the Pelicans to trade Anthony Davis for Tim Duncan, even if Davis wants to leave.
- Even more importantly, you need to trade for guys who can really make a difference. The Josh Smith´s and Al Jefferson´s of this world alone are not going to cut it. Unfortunately, the Durant´s and LeBron´s aren´t always readily available, which means a lot of time can pass until such an opportunity arises. Time, in which the young players you´ve spent your draft picks and cap space on will naturally lose their appeal to the team you´re trying to trade them to (as explained above).
- This turns the whole meta game behind rebuilding into a "war of attrition".
The dilemma should be quite obvious: You can´t sign quality players without already having quality players on the roster. You can´t trade for them without "assets", potential quality players. You can only draft them. Fortunately, not only can draft picks turn into quality players themselves, they are also an asset per se.
So, it all comes down to a very simple formula:
Accumulate assets, retain flexibility, strike when the opportunity arises (either through the draft or on the trade market).
If you want to make an impact, you need to pack a punch (having assets), and be able to land it (having flexibility at the right time).
That is the only thing you can plan for and work towards. Everything else is truly "might or might not work".
Be water, my friend. Be water.
