Is Tanking Worth it?

[LarBrd33]

Simple post.  I just want to show a list of the 2013 All-Stars and show where they were drafted.   There are plenty of sneaky players like Rondo and David Lee who made the allstar team despite being taken late in the 1st round.  But not surprisingly you'll see that a ton of star players (especially superstar players) are snatched up with the first 5 picks of the draft.  Almost all are taken in the lotto.

---West Starters---
Chris Paul #4
Kobe Bryant #13 * (high school)
Kevin Durant #2
Blake Griffin #1
Dwight Howard #1
---West Bench---
Tim Duncan #1
LaMarcus Aldridge #2
James Harden #3
David Lee #30
Tony Parker #28
Zach Randolph #19
Russell Westbrook #4


---East Starters---
Rajon Rondo #21
Dwayne Wade #5
LeBron James #1
Carmelo Anthony #3
Kevin Garnett #5
---East Bench---
Chris Bosh #4
Tyson Chandler #2
Luol Deng #7
Paul George #10
Jrue Holiday #17
Kyrie Irving #1
Brook Lopez #10
Joakim Noah #9

All-stars from 2012 who didn't make it in 2013:

Andrew Bynum #10 * (high school)
Marc Gasol #48
Kevin Love #5
Steve Nash #15
Dirk Nowitzki #9
Derrick Rose #1
Roy Hibbert #17
Andre Iguodala #9
Joe Johnson #10
Paul Pierce #10
Deron Williams #3

Green = Top 5 pick
Blue = Top 10 or High School player (not possible anymore)

... Take it for what it's worth.  The 2014 draft is supposed to be the best draft in over a decade.  I hear anywhere between 5-8 of the players can end up being All-Stars.  It's an exciting time to be a Celtic fan. 

[tarheelsxxiii]

That is informative. I want to know more about these guys before I start investing too much in the hype though. Maybe after a year of college ball the level of talent, attitude, and overall promise among 5-8 will become more apparent.

[indeedproceed]

For me, absolutely.

[blink]

It would be interesting to compare that list against all of the lotto picks from the past 15 years and who they are and how they ended up.  There are a lot of average players, and lotto busts during the last 15 years as well.

IE make a list showing off all the available lotto picks over the past 15 years, how many of them ended up being repeat all stars / franchise players.  I am too lazy to do that haha...

[LarBrd33]

It would be interesting to compare that list against all of the lotto picks from the past 15 years and who they are and how they ended up. 

But if you did that you'd have to also do a list of all the non-lotto picks from the past 15 years and see how many even lasted in the league.  You'll start to realize that the Rajon Rondos and David Lees of the world are very very rare.

An interesting list would be to take Bill Simmons' hall of fame Pyramid ( http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/simmons_pyramid.html ) and see where those guys were drafted.

Fair to say that most franchise stars are spotted early in their development.  Also fair to say that most champions have a superstar-level player on their team.  It's not hard to understand why Ainge is picking right now to blow this team up and bottom out.  It's a no-brainer (although cold blooded) move and we'll be dancing in the streets in a year when KG and Pierce are retired...even if we get stuck with a #9 pick or something.

[blink]

It would be interesting to compare that list against all of the lotto picks from the past 15 years and who they are and how they ended up. 

But if you did that you'd have to also do a list of all the non-lotto picks from the past 15 years and see how many even lasted in the league.  You'll start to realize that the Rajon Rondos and David Lees of the world are very very rare.

An interesting list would be to take Bill Simmons' hall of fame Pyramid ( http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/simmons_pyramid.html ) and see where those guys were drafted.

Fair to say that most franchise stars are spotted early in their development.  Also fair to say that most champions have a superstar-level player on their team.  It's not hard to understand why Ainge is picking right now to blow this team up and bottom out.  It's a no-brainer (although cold blooded) move and we'll be dancing in the streets in a year when KG and Pierce are retired...even if we get stuck with a #9 pick or something.

Well since the 'to tank or not to tank' debate revolves around a top 10 pick and its impact on the future of the team, why even look at the lower draft picks?  We all know that there are always going to be some lower picks that turn into all star players, but the percentages are extremely low.  DA has actually done a great job finding the late 1st round diamonds.

What I would be interested to see is really the % of lotto picks that turn into franchise players and the % of those that are still with the team that drafted them.  I would expect the 2nd number to be pretty high because teams don't want to give away their best players.  But we all know it happens.

I think the big issue with 'tanking' is people's perception that we are going to lose on purpose.  I don't think we will be doing that.  But I think that even if we trade Rondo that we aren't going to be bad enough to get into the top 4-5.  There are some bad teams out there....

If you can't get that high, then there needs to be consideration in keeping Rondo.  Really hard to predict.

[LarBrd33]

It would be interesting to compare that list against all of the lotto picks from the past 15 years and who they are and how they ended up. 

But if you did that you'd have to also do a list of all the non-lotto picks from the past 15 years and see how many even lasted in the league.  You'll start to realize that the Rajon Rondos and David Lees of the world are very very rare.

An interesting list would be to take Bill Simmons' hall of fame Pyramid ( http://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/simmons_pyramid.html ) and see where those guys were drafted.

Fair to say that most franchise stars are spotted early in their development.  Also fair to say that most champions have a superstar-level player on their team.  It's not hard to understand why Ainge is picking right now to blow this team up and bottom out.  It's a no-brainer (although cold blooded) move and we'll be dancing in the streets in a year when KG and Pierce are retired...even if we get stuck with a #9 pick or something.

Well since the 'to tank or not to tank' debate revolves around a top 10 pick and its impact on the future of the team, why even look at the lower draft picks?  We all know that there are always going to be some lower picks that turn into all star players, but the percentages are extremely low.

Sure... but if your goal is to tour Wonka's Factory, you need a Golden Ticket.  And you aren't going to get a Golden Ticket buying Reese's Pieces. 

It's a superstar's league.  Superstars win titles.  I don't care how slim the odds are that a top 5 pick turns into a star.  How many champions have been built around a player who wasn't taken in the top 10? 

Bron #1
Wade #5
Pau #3
Shaq #1
KG #5
Dirk #9
Jordan #3
Hakeem #1
Duncan #1
Bird #6
McHale #3
Magic #1
Isiah #2
Billups #3
Unseld #2
Walton #1
Havlicheck #7
Cowens #4
Barry #2

...  Is what it is.

I see no logical reason for not taking.  Clearly Danny doesn't see a logical reason either.  If you miss out on a superstar in the 2014 draft... oh well.  You took your shot.  What was the alternative?  If you were to use a time machine to go back to 1996 and take over the Boston Celtics, would you tell them NOT to tank for a shot at Tim Duncan?  What was the alternative there?... trade Antoine Walker for Michael Jordan?

[GreenEnvy]

If my choices are:

A) overachieve to a .500 record and swept in first round
B) have a predictably rough year and finish with the 10-12th worst record
C) sneaky tank to 5-8th worst record
D) full-fledged, all-out, league-investigated tank to bottom 3 record


I choose D

[Celtics18]

If my choices are:

A) overachieve to a .500 record and swept in first round
B) have a predictably rough year and finish with the 10-12th worst record
C) sneaky tank to 5-8th worst record
D) full-fledged, all-out, league-investigated tank to bottom 3 record


I choose D

A.

[GreenEnvy]

If my choices are:

A) overachieve to a .500 record and swept in first round
B) have a predictably rough year and finish with the 10-12th worst record
C) sneaky tank to 5-8th worst record
D) full-fledged, all-out, league-investigated tank to bottom 3 record


I choose D

A.

I honestly think that would be the worst case scenario for this team.

We'd get embarrassed by Miami (or even worse, Brooklyn lol), and have no shot at a franchise-altering player.

[LarBrd33]

If my choices are:

A) overachieve to a .500 record and swept in first round
B) have a predictably rough year and finish with the 10-12th worst record
C) sneaky tank to 5-8th worst record
D) full-fledged, all-out, league-investigated tank to bottom 3 record


I choose D

A.

You know what... I respect that.  You're a man with honor and pride.  A man with dignity.  That's commendable.

I feel blessed that Danny Ainge is running this team and not you.

Tank it up, baby!  I want a guy in charge of the Celtics who'd trade his own mother for a 1st round pick.  Especially if she only has a few years left in her.  That's just smart business.  Draft a new mother.  Preferably one who can cook eggs benny for the next 15 years. 

[Vox_Populi]

I'm not sure why you'd ask if tanking is worth it. After all, we are the Boston Celtics and we do not tank. 

[LarBrd33]

I'm not sure why you'd ask if tanking is worth it. After all, we are the Boston Celtics and we do not tank. 

Except for like... a few times when it already happened.

[Celtics18]

If my choices are:

A) overachieve to a .500 record and swept in first round
B) have a predictably rough year and finish with the 10-12th worst record
C) sneaky tank to 5-8th worst record
D) full-fledged, all-out, league-investigated tank to bottom 3 record


I choose D

A.

You know what... I respect that.  You're a man with honor and pride.  A man with dignity.  That's commendable.

I feel blessed that Danny Ainge is running this team and not you.

Tank it up, baby!  I want a guy in charge of the Celtics who'd trade his own mother for a 1st round pick.  Especially if she only has a few years left in her.  That's just smart business.  Draft a new mother.  Preferably one who can cook eggs benny for the next 15 years.

Thanks.

My honor, pride, and dignity aside, I also believe that tanking simply has too strong a risk of back firing.  To do it right, those of you who are advocates seem to agree that it makes the most sense to trade Rondo for prospects and draft picks. 

There are too many scenarios where that could end up not working out, and leaving us as bottom dwellers for a very long time.  I'm not interested in seeing that possibility. 

I'm not a believer in the all eggs in one basket theory of team building. 

[indeedproceed]

If my choices are:

A) overachieve to a .500 record and swept in first round
B) have a predictably rough year and finish with the 10-12th worst record
C) sneaky tank to 5-8th worst record
D) full-fledged, all-out, league-investigated tank to bottom 3 record


I choose D

A.

You know what... I respect that.  You're a man with honor and pride.  A man with dignity.  That's commendable.

I feel blessed that Danny Ainge is running this team and not you.

Tank it up, baby!  I want a guy in charge of the Celtics who'd trade his own mother for a 1st round pick.  Especially if she only has a few years left in her.  That's just smart business.  Draft a new mother.  Preferably one who can cook eggs benny for the next 15 years.

Thanks.

My honor, pride, and dignity aside, I also believe that tanking simply has too strong a risk of back firing.  To do it right, those of you who are advocates seem to agree that it makes the most sense to trade Rondo for prospects and draft picks. 

There are too many scenarios where that could end up not working out, and leaving us as bottom dwellers for a very long time.  I'm not interested in seeing that possibility. 

I'm not a believer in the all eggs in one basket theory of team building.

But it really isn't eggs all in one basket. All out tank means top-6 pick.

So we lose out on the lottery, complete flashback to 2007 where my buddy sat there and mocked my passion for the Celtics as I listened with intense interest to Sirius radio as the teams were announced, and when we got the 5th pick said, 'so like...why?'

But we still have hopefully cap space from unloading Rondo with Crash's contract, Drumroe, and our other assets. No tank was built in a year.

We use those and move forward.