Caution, very long.
My summary of Ainge's moves leading up to 2008. For those that don't know much about his moves to gut the roster and make us young with cap room starting 2004.
It's not perfect, so if you have input or corrections please feel free to comment.
Of course my opinion is involved throughout so don't be afraid to disagree or give another viewpoint on what you might see as bad judgement by him or glorifying by me.
If we go by his past actions and moves, what do you think is most likely?
The Beginning:
*Ainge arrives in 2003 closer to the end of the season. We bust the playoffs and he decides it's time for some changes. He ships out Toine' and gets back La Frentz, Mills, and a first round pick in 2004.
*He adds this pick to our nest and manages to draft
Al Jefferson at 15, Delonte West and Tony Allen in the same draft.
*in 2005 the above guys along with Pierce and particularly Al Jeff start to show promise. But it's continued mediocrity, and Al Jeff has lingering foot and ankle problems with bone spurs among other ailments.
Draft night 2005 hits and Ainge gets Gerald Green at 18 and Ryan Gomes deep in 2nd round.
*This offseason moves Banks, Blount and Ricky Davis in a move that was considered pretty polarizing at the time for Wally Z and Kandi.
*We've got Pierce playing at an All Star level and Al Jeff and Perkisn developing- both showing promise at opposite ends. Big Al with Rebounding and post moves of a legitimate NBA big man and Perk with defensive intensity and help defense. With Big Al improving and still coming off the bench behind Kendrick Perkins. We still suck and barley win 30 games, ending up with the 7th pick.
*Ainge realizes he may have found his 7 foot diamond in the rough in Al Jefferson and has an evolving NBA superstar small forward in Paul Pierce. It's time to go after a point guard.
2006 coming up to 2007
*Not overly impressed with his options at number 7 in the 2006 draft, he decides he needs to move salary so he sends the 7th pick, the $40 million owed to Raef La Frentz and the horrilbe/injured Dan Dickau to the Blazers for Sebastian Telfair.
*He now had what he hoped might flourish into his starting point guard next to Pierce and Al Jeff and figured that Telfair would sharpen up if given the right chance in Boston.
*To his surprise, one of his favorite prospects in the draft dropped to number 21, and Danny made an immediate move to ask the Phoenix Suns to draft Rajon Rondo on the Celtics behalf. He now has two PG prospects and has cleared major cap room.
*By trading for Telfair he had enough money to pay off some Phoenix salary in return for the pick, and still had money left over for the upcoming free agency class next offseason in 2007. La Frentz leaving was weird at the time, but understandable with how overpaid he was.
*He also selects Leon Powe late 2nd round in 2006 draft- a high school athletic phenom once touted as the next big thing, with chronic knee issues that force him to play the power forward spot instead of his natural guard/small forward spot.
2006- 2 years after arriving:
*In the space of 2 seasons, Danny Ainge has now completely gutted the roster, leaving Paul Pierce and Kendrick Perkins as the only standing players from before 2004 ( I think?). He has again, in 2 seasons and 3 drafts (with his highest pick being number 7 and his next highest being 15), acquired through drafts and picks the following players:
Telfair
Rondo
Delonte West
Al Jefferson
Tony Allen
Leon Powe
Gomes
Gerald Green
Theo Ratliff
With Perkins and Pierce remaining.
Perceived value and potential- building value in his assets
The Celtics now have a decent stable of ponies as well as some cap room now that Toine' and La Frentz are gone. Ainge ponders how to add the right pieces to Pierce and Al Jefferson and has been valiant at 'showcasing' his young assets on the floor such as Delonte West and Gerald Green- masking Gerald's glaring weaknesses and leaving other NBA GM's with just enough guess work to imagine Gerald's almost non-existent 'potential'. With Doc Rivers help, and gaining great exposure for his 2nd round acquisitions like Gomes and Powe, keeping this in tact whilst ensuring the Celtics have a 50% shot at either Oden or Durant now that Pierce was out.
*Danny has always been the kind of guy to think 2 or 3 steps ahead. He likes cap room whenever he thinks his Celtics aren't a contender and he had enough cap room at this stage. His biggest worry was Paul Pierce's growing concerns + whispers and comments from Pierce about leaving the Celtics if they could not field a contender. He was frustrated and we all remember how painful it was for him wasting away.
The luck of the Irish- Don't you know Leprechauns create their own luck?
*A bit of Irish luck during the 2006-07 season quietly blessed Boston with injuries to both Paul Pierce AND Tony Allen- ensuring we should plummet to the bottom of the barrel in the East.
*It was the perfect 'double dip' situation for Danny. With the help of Doc Rivers and some rather 'questionable' minutes management they steered their way to win only 24 games, going 2 from 22 in their last stretch of the season and plummeting them to a league 2nd worst record. He now had an oppurtunity he'd never had- the chance to add an All Star to his core and get Pierce some help and sanity. Rashard Lewis, Steve Francis, Gerald Wallace and a few other All Star candidates would be available and Danny was looking at needing to add someone if he couldn't work anything out of the draft.
*Whilst preparing for the free agency of 2007, the Celtics had found themselves with an almost 60% chance of landing either Greg Oden, Kevin Durant or LaMarcus Aldrige.
This was the break that Danny had been waiting for.
He now had Cap space and a huge chance of a number one or two pick.
The first two of these players were considered franchise level material-potential legends, and adding Oden to a core of Pierce and Jefferson would make them an NBA powerhouse and free agent destination. Even Aldridge would have been a perfect complementary piece next to Pierce and Al Jeff.
*Ainge could even take Durant and move Pierce to the contender he'd always wanted to play for and probably get something of incredible value in return given his age and superstar status. We'll never know exactly what he was thinking. My guess is Oden was headed our way so we did dodge a draft day bullet by getting the 5th pick.
*The Irish curse had half- struck once again and the Celtics were 'punished' with the 5th pick- all but surely missing out on the Greg Oden and Kevin Durant sweepstakes. As fans it was just horrific. I remember my stomach sinking and just feeling a shock/freeze that we somehow had been screwed by lady luck again. I’ll never forget that and I often use that as a reminder that tanking is never a fun experience unless you land that franchise level talent.I can only imagine what it would have been like for Spurs and Bulls fans when they impossibly landed Duncan and Rose in their lottery wins-probably the exact opposite of our Len Bias and 2007 experiences.
*Although he'd missed out on Greg Oden, Durant and Aldridge- Ainge still had the 5th pick in what was considered a better than average draft. He was very fond of a 6'9" combo forward from Georgetown named Jeff Green and had followed him throughout the NCAA season closely.
When oppurtunity knocks, you let her the *!*$* in
*Ainge had taken only 3 seasons to rip apart a horrible roster and shed the payroll, whilst only keeping its best young talents and cheap contracts around Boston’s franchise player. He'd drafted extremely well overall considering the placement of his picks. Although there were some whiffs, they were all mid first round or late 2nd round picks. I mean Al Jefferson, Delonte and Tony Allen in one draft isn’t bad. Neither is Rondo at 21 especially when you buy your way back in to get him.
*Still planning how to get Pierce some help, Danny was always keeping his eyes on the ball. A master of timing and preparedness (and a lot of luck as usual in situations like this), his chance came along in the form of an opportunity to use his coveted combination of cap space and assets to attempt a mega deal- the kind of trade that goes down in history as one of the greatest of all time. Famous not just for its heist, but for its timing, vision and execution.
*The perfect storm had happened for Boston. The Wolves had failed yet again in the brutally tough Western Conference playoff race. Latrell Sprewell had turned down an extension being offended at 21 million over 3 years, and Sam Cassell’s back catching up with his age. With one season left on his contract, NBA MVP Kevin Garnett was requesting a trade from the Timberwolves rather than signing a contract extension.
*Danny was ready of course. It’s moments like these that you stockpile assets for. Just as the Houston Rockets are currently doing for Dwight Howard, Danny turned the roster upside down in just 2 seasons and 3 draft nights- with the help of a lottery pick and the seemingly heartbreaking lost opportunity of Greg Oden and Kevin Durant had now ‘double dipped’ into the icing on the cake to complete a game changing deal and swing the fortunes of this franchise.
In the largest multiple player transaction ever, KG was traded from the Wolves to the Celtics for
Al Jefferson
Ryan Gomes
Sebastian Telfair
Gerald Green
Theo Ratliff
Wally Zerbiak
and two first round picks.
*What's so good about this is that the centerpiece of the trade, Al Jefferson had started for an injured Kendrick Perkins and had shown All Star potential over a 10-15 game period before the season had ended. His body was transforming and his hard work was paying off. He was getting big game numbers with 20 points and 10 rebounds here and there, and getting double doubles regularly at the end of the 2006-2007 season.
Without support from Doc and Danny this small breakout likely doesn't occur from Jefferson, it's questionable that even fiercely loyal former Celtic Kevin McHale pulls the trigger on this mega deal.
*Thankfully, Big Al had been showcased just enough so that his potential was undeniable. A serious All Star potential talent AND picks AND a bucket of young prospects on cheap deals to go along with him. The argument is that KG was basically the league MVP so he could have attained more and told the Wolves where he wanted to go- that Danny was ‘gifted’ KG by the Wolves and McHale. That’s completely bogus. Often considered a one sided deal, people forget that soon to be free agent's don't always bag enormous hauls if they can walk away anyway. I’m sure we can all think of a few examples in recent history.
What else is important is that to get KG to Boston, he had to get Ray Allen first on 2007 draft night.
*Danny sent Delonte, the rights to Jeff Green and Wally Zerbiak, which would be enough for a Sonics/Thunderorganization that had signed off on their own blow it up/tank strategy whilst also acquiring Kevin Durant in the same draft. Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis would only slow down the rebuilding process and take up cap room. Two things you don’t want happeningwhen you’ve landed a franchise player like Durant and an All Star prospect like Jeff Green in the same draft!
This is something that Danny doesn't get enough credit for in making this happen and the timing and orchestration of it whilst keeping Perkins, Rondo, Powe and Tony Allen.
If the NBA was a poker game, at some stage you must cash in and re-evaluate or you’ll go broke.
Let's look at our current assets to compare to the 2004 season when Ainge started collecting eggs back then.
*We now have 9 first round picks over the next 5 seasons including 2 first round picks in 2014. Yes that’s right NINE!
*We have an All Star PG coming off ACL surgery
*We have Sullinger, Bradley and Jeff Green.
*We have Courtney Lee who’ll be given a bigger role and will hopefully live up to his contract now that less pressure is on him.
*We have Brandon Bass. His contract isn’t exactly a bargain but his defense in the playoffs will probably make him a desirable asset for a contender. The kind of guy that New Jersey would add to their huge tax bill in an instant.
* We don’t really have cap room to add significant pieces to Rondo because of Wallace and Bogans’ contracts.
*All of the above are viable trade assets. Even Wallace’s deal will become an expiring.
*Rondo can be traded or he can be kept. Even when Pierce was on his own in a terrible Eastern conference, without Walker I don’t think we managed over 35 wins. Rondo has Green but it’s still going to be an uphill battle.
Danny must now decide if and how to rebuild around Rondo.
It’s possible we win over 30 games with Rondo and this hurts our lottery chances. It still gets us a top 6-10 pick though which could be plenty enough in a draft of this caliber. Perhaps his best option is to wait till the 2014 off season and test Rondo’s trade value after his injury is better. Would anyone give up a lottery pick in 2014 for Rondo? If not, could we move a combo of Jeff Green and Rondo for a top 5 pick?
Personally I’m an advocate for going all in for this draft.
I don’t think Rondo should play but I would love to keep him for the next 5 years to complement any potential franchise changing player we may acquire in 2014. If we finished in the bottom 4 teams next season we’ll have a guaranteed All Star level prospect.
No one’s guaranteed an All Star of course, but it seems like too good an opportunity to pass up with that much talent.
*If we landed one of Wiggins, Jabari Parker or Randle it would probably change the course of our franchise for the next 10 years given how good the management are at steering the ship.
*All I know is Danny Ainge will be ready when another opportunity comes along. He’ll be thinking of deals that no one else would dream of. He’ll be strategizing with multiple outcomes and scenarios and he’ll make his own luck. I think one of the most important aspects of tanking are the management and ownership behind the management. He has the full support of the cashiers and does a brilliant job of separating Celtic nostalgia and emotion from his strategic decisions.
The Celtics are an elite organization in all sports and Danny has been a successful GM for 10 years in an industry where GM’s and coaches change over like dirty underwear.
Please feel free to add in parts I’ve left out or if you think he’s got some plan.
I feel like he’ll tank because there aren’t any franchise level free agents this off season and the 2014 draft is just too juicy for a gambler like Danny not to roll the dice. It’s not every day the timing of your rebuild coincides with a draft comparative to the 2003 draft of Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Carmelo.
Do we really give up an opportunity at this draft to overpay guys like Josh Smith and Paul Millsap?
I think Danny’s too smart for that.
What do you think?
Topic: Looking at Danny Ainge's 'rebuild' from 2004 leading up to 2008 and now (long) (Read 3169 times)