So, what have we learned so far about the Celtics? I thought I'd share some stats. Word of caution, 8 games is still a small sample size. Many indicators of play won't stabilize for a while yet.
Team Profile:
The Celtics are 12th in defensive rating according to cleaning the glass, which filters out garbage time. They are actually 4th in halfcourt first shot defense, meaning they do an excellent shot at forcing misses in the half court. That's somewhat undone by being 28th in Oreb%. They are very good at forcing turnovers ranking 3rd 17.4%, but very bad at fouling ranking 27th. That's probably not a coincidence, being more aggressive will lead to more turnovers and more fouls. They profile as a slightly better than average defense, even with their rebounding woes, because they force turnovers and defend shots well.
The Celtics are The Celtics are 21st in offensive rating according to cleaning the glass. They are 20th in first shot halfcourt offense, they do get a decent number of offensive rebounds ranking 9th. They take a lot of threes, ranking 2nd in frequency. They take some mid rangers ranking 14th in frequency. They NEVER get to the rim ranking 30th in frequency. Basically, they take a lot of jump shots. There is actually some room for growth here, they are shooting a putrid 31.4% on threes which is 28th in the league. Given their quality of shooters, you'd expect a significant improvement in that number as the season progresses. They can't really fix their rim pressure issues right now; they have one guy (Brown) who can get there. They are significantly helped by the fact they are 2nd in TO% at 11.8, which is about the same as last year. They get out in transition a fair amount, being 2nd in transition frequency but have so far struggled to score being 21st in points/possession. They have been a slightly below average offense that should get better as the 3-point shooting improves. They lack upside however because they don't get easy points at the rim or from the FT line.
A few other things:
Nemias Queta has arguably been their most IMPORTANT (not best) player. He leads the team, by far, in plus minus at +52. The next best is Pritchard at +19. He's been a solid NBA center, and the drop off from him to the rets of their centers is massive. One very easy piece of low hanging fruit would be playing him 30 mins a game instead of 23.
White is shooting 26.3% from three. But its worth noting he has had similarly bad stretches in the past. Last year he had a 17-71 from stretch from three Jan 5th and Jan 23rd. I've seen some suggest its because Tatum is out, but last year his 3 point shooting was actually better with Tatum OFF the floor, he shot 37.7% with him on and 39.6% with him off.
Brown has played very well. He's at a career high in USG with 34.2. That's similar to what SGA's USG% was last year. His TS% is 62.3%, also a career high. Ater struggling with his 2pnt% last year at just 52.9% he?s up to 59.4% this year, which is closer to what he was previously (57-58%). He is averaging 10.1 potential assists/36 minutes up from 8.7 last year, but because his teammates can't hit shots his assists are down. They've done a good job managing his minutes, he's at just under 32 a game which would be his lowest mark since his 3rd year.
Summarized:
This team has been a slightly above average defense, even accounting for their defensive rebounding issues. They are aggressive and have quite a few individually pretty good defenders. They do a great job shutting off the rim, they are 4th in opponent rim frequency. They have been below average offensively, but I expect that to get better as their shooting does. They should be an average-ish offense.
They currently have the profile of a right around .500 team, not surprising given their over under was 41.5 wins. If they can improve their rebounding they have some upside because their defense is legit very good, but they've also been healthy so they have some downside if injuries strike.
Long Term Outlook:
Injuries can always change this, but I just don't think this team is bad enough to tank barring injuries or just plain bad luck in close game. If they get a top 4 pick its because they got some lottery luck and move up from 10-14 to top 4.
But I also don't think they are that far away from contending. A lot of their issues are solved by a healthy Tatum. The rest are solved by simply getting a solid starting level center. Look at how good they've been with Queta on the floor, if they're that good with a borderline starter level guy then moving Queta to backup and getting a true starting 5 could really solidify things fast.
Topic: What have we learned: (Read 200 times)