Lets look at history and drafting in the lottery related to NBA championships.

[ram]

There is more than 1 way to skin a cat.  In other words, there is no set formula to this.

Ainge did well adding 2 stars to 1 already in place and resisting trading the 2 young players that were showing the most potential. Those 5 fit together very well in the form of a starting lineup puzzle. The easy part was adding the bench pieces (PJ, House, Posey).

This time might be a little harder because he has a couple of pieces (Rondo, Green) with health issues.
I love Rondo but I'm not sure he can hold up for another 4-5 years. His style of play coupled with his slender frame makes him a risk.

 

[Boris Badenov]

I think that people are maybe drawing a bright line between "tanking" and "not tanking" that really doesn't exist.

Danny has proven that he can acquire assets and turn them into a championship team.

Right now he is in asset-acqusition mode. Next will come turning those assets into high-quality players.

Maybe the path will be getting a high pick that turns into a superstar (long shot).

Maybe it'll be getting a solid lottery pick in a loaded draft and packaging that player plus other assets for a star (e.g., as with Green for Ray).

Maybe it'll be by drafting exceptionally well and then packaging a lesser star plus assets for a major star (e.g., Al Jeff for KG).

I would be shocked if Danny has his heart set on any of these paths right now. He's probably going to see how free agency develops, and what Rondo's return looks like.

Then he'll adapt and try to pursue the path that leaves us with the biggest stockpile of assets one year from now.

Depending on how this unfolds, we could be back in contention in 2-3 years (that would be hitting the lottery, quite literally). Or it might take longer.

There's reason for optimism IMO. Danny's last rebuild took 4-5 years, and I think the assets we have now are pretty comparable to what we had in 2003.

But anyway my approach will be to sit back and watch it all happen, and he hopeful that Danny makes good decisions - and gets a little lucky. We'll need both.

Just curious who the stars are who are going to be sold at 10 cents on the dollar after Ainge acquires all these alleged "assets."

Back to a point I have made repeatedly on this board: If you're banking on history repeating itself with the Garnett and Allen trades - and let's interrupt all the false optimism here for a minute; Ainge didn't trade "assets" for those two, he acquired them at pennies on the dollar, and then watched those alleged "assets" largely fade into obscurity - then you are in for a shock.

Unfortunate that Ainge and Wyc lacked the foresight, talent judgment and budgetary will to keep the Celtics competitive and retool on the fly.

  People say KG was traded for pennies on the dollar. Same with Ray, same with Pau, same with Shaq to Miami. It's not like it's as rare as you think. It's probably much more rare to find cases of star players being traded for what would have been considered (at the time) full value.

Took the words out of my mouth (hands).

I think if you look at the recent trades for superstars - Harden, CP3, Carmelo, Dwight, Pau...probably missing a few - the KG and Ray deals don't look so out of line, in terms of value out vs. value in. Some of those acquiring teams had advantages we don't have, of course (namely being LA or NY).

I'd argue that it's even more true if you consider that Ray and KG were past their peaks when traded, while the guys above are at their peaks.

[chambers]

I think that people are maybe drawing a bright line between "tanking" and "not tanking" that really doesn't exist.

Danny has proven that he can acquire assets and turn them into a championship team.

Right now he is in asset-acqusition mode. Next will come turning those assets into high-quality players.

Maybe the path will be getting a high pick that turns into a superstar (long shot).

Maybe it'll be getting a solid lottery pick in a loaded draft and packaging that player plus other assets for a star (e.g., as with Green for Ray).

Maybe it'll be by drafting exceptionally well and then packaging a lesser star plus assets for a major star (e.g., Al Jeff for KG).

I would be shocked if Danny has his heart set on any of these paths right now. He's probably going to see how free agency develops, and what Rondo's return looks like.

Then he'll adapt and try to pursue the path that leaves us with the biggest stockpile of assets one year from now.

Depending on how this unfolds, we could be back in contention in 2-3 years (that would be hitting the lottery, quite literally). Or it might take longer.

There's reason for optimism IMO. Danny's last rebuild took 4-5 years, and I think the assets we have now are pretty comparable to what we had in 2003.

But anyway my approach will be to sit back and watch it all happen, and he hopeful that Danny makes good decisions - and gets a little lucky. We'll need both.

Just curious who the stars are who are going to be sold at 10 cents on the dollar after Ainge acquires all these alleged "assets."

Back to a point I have made repeatedly on this board: If you're banking on history repeating itself with the Garnett and Allen trades - and let's interrupt all the false optimism here for a minute; Ainge didn't trade "assets" for those two, he acquired them at pennies on the dollar while they were being fire-sold, and then watched those alleged "assets" largely fade into obscurity - then you are in for a shock.

Unfortunate that Ainge and Wyc lacked the foresight, talent judgment and budgetary will to keep the Celtics competitive and retool on the fly.

Never mind the 5 years of contender status and the 17th NBA Championship they created from 3-4 draft picks and the 'talent judgement' they showed in buying back into the draft for the 21st pick to select Rajon Rondo.

Never mind his ability to select an All Star big man in Al Jefferson with the 15th pick, or the balls he had to even approach the Wolves and Sonics for KG and Ray Allen.
What did the Magic get for Howard? What did the Thunder get for Harden?

It's just so easy, exactly how you describe it to be as usual Mr Bo. How could they be so unwise?
 Could you point out any teams that have been successful or even made the NBA finals by 'rebuilding on the fly'?

Can you name one organization that didn't involve a mega acquisition of assets and picks over multiple years to get even get the potential to be a contender?
I'm looking at the Rockets, the Magic and the Grizzlies and I'm noticing that they all follow a strikingly similar approach to rebuilding as Mr Ainge and Mr Grousbeck.
In fact the GM of the Thunder names the Celtics as his favorite organization in the NBA as a dirty secret of his.

Anyway, go over that list of NBA champions, or take a look at the last 50 years of champions and highlight all the teams that didn't acquire one of their franchise guys through the lottery or through asset acquisition and late lottery/first round draft picks.

[bdm860]

There is more than 1 way to skin a cat.  In other words, there is no set formula to this.

Ainge did well adding 2 stars to 1 already in place and resisting trading the 2 young players that were showing the most potential. Those 5 fit together very well in the form of a starting lineup puzzle. The easy part was adding the bench pieces (PJ, House, Posey).

This time might be a little harder because he has a couple of pieces (Rondo, Green) with health issues.
I love Rondo but I'm not sure he can hold up for another 4-5 years. His style of play coupled with his slender frame makes him a risk.

 

I agree there's more than 1 way to skin a cat, most people think the only way is with a top level superstar.  While I definitely think having one of those is the best/easiest way to get to a championship (and tanking is the best way for most teams to get one), it’s definitely not the only way.  The problem is, maybe only once every few years does a transcendent superstar comes along,  Durant in ’07, LeBron in ’03, Duncan in ’97, Shaq in ’92 (with some lesser superstars like Dirk, KG, Howard, etc. able to sneak a championship or Finals appearance in the mix).  We all know it takes a lot of luck to get one of those players.

But I really think you can build a solid team and win a championship too without a top pick.  Yes it’s harder and hasn’t really been done in the recent era except for the Pistons, but just because the Pistons were the only team to pull it off, doesn’t mean it can’t be done.  Just a brief run down in my opinion:

Portland (Finals in ’90, WCF in ’91, Finals in ’92)
New York Knicks (Finals in ’99, ECF in ’00)
Indiana Pacers (ECF in ’94, ’95, ’98, 99, Finals in ’00, ECF in ‘13)
Detroit Pistons (Championship in ’04, Finals in ’05, ECF in ’06, ’07, and ’08)
Memphis Grizzlies (WCF in ’13).

While the NBA championship has eluded all of these examples except the Pistons in ’04, most of these teams came within a game or 2 of winning the whole thing, or losing to the eventual champs in the Conference Finals.    Indiana doesn’t take Hibbert out, maybe they’re the champs.  One tweak here, a couple of tweaks there, bring in one more bench player, don’t lose a certain player to injury, make a minor trade, and maybe the outcomes are different. 

Even though good teams not built around that mega-star haven’t won, doesn’t mean they can’t.  Enough teams have come close enough over the last 20 plus years for me to think it’s very possible.  Harder than building around a mega star sure, but still very possible.  And since there are so few mega stars out there, I think this is the avenue more teams should take.

In conclusion, despite lack of championships by good teams not built around a transcendent mega star, enough teams have come close enough to show me it’s still very possible.

[playdream]

i think whether to tank or not depends on how much you want
to win a championship , no pain no gain

[BballTim]

i think whether to tank or not depends on how much you want
to win a championship , no pain no gain

  Whether to tank or not depends on whether you have any other options or not.

[Celtics18]

People hate rebuilding. It's a slow and boring, painful and frustrating experience.
There are a few ways to do it. Many Celtics fans are disgusted at the thought of tanking for a top 5 pick next year or the shot at a franchise level player, thinking the better option is to add some free agents to our core and work around Rondo.
It's an honourable thought, an idealistic idea that we could re tool on the fly and become a contender relatively quickly. Unfortunately history and evidence don't agree with this option at all.

If you disagree, i want you to brainstorm.
First tell me which current players or free agents could we get to join Rondo that would make us a legitimate contender with teams like Chicago and Miami and OKC around for the next 5 seasons?

Ok so you've got a list. Lets put that list of players out there on the floor against the last 25 years of NBA championship teams. Then lets compare that list with Rondo, to the Celtics roster from 2008 to 2013. Are those players with Rondo a match for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen when they joined our then sole star player Paul Pierce? Who would you compare to KG in the current market of free agents? Anyone? Is Howard as good as KG was in 2008? It's arguable. Can we get Howard? Not likely. After him, is there anyone on Ray or KGs level? No. Not even close.
Now think back to that squad of Pierce, KG and Ray and ask how many championships we won.
Yes they were towards the end of their 'primes' but they were still in their primes and we only managed one championship. KGs injury is a major factor but the fact is we have one banner for that amazing squad.
That's how hard it is to win a championship in the NBA. So how do you win a championship in the modern NBA. Other than teaming together and conspiring in secret like the Miami Heat to form a super trio....
You need to draft a superstar yourself and surround him with the right players. By this I mean you need at least one other all star player and usually two depending on the supporting casts skill set.

The last 10 Years of NBA finalists feature teams with at least one home grown superstar and at least 3 all stars in most cases. In fact only the Mavs had a lone 'superstar' without any all star help in Dirk. The pistons had 4 all stars and are the other exception without a superstar they themselves drafted in the lottery. That's basically
The Spurs
Lakers
Celtics
Mavs
Cavs
Magic
OKC

In fact only 6 teams in the last 14 years have gotten rings.
Take that back to the last 20 years and its 8 teams
Now look back at the past 50 NBA champions, even to the beginning of the NBA.
Are there even 4 or 5 teams that don't have a superstar they drafted via tanking?
 Red Auerbach was great at ripping off other teams, but he also had vision and genius to a certain extent. he drafted KC Jones, he drafted tommy heinsohn. he made a draft day heist trade to get bill russell but GM's for the most part don't get hosed like that nowadays. We drafted Bird. In fact the period that we stunk so badly through can arguably be narrowed down to our 1986 2nd overall pick Len Bias passing away before he even played a game, followed by our late blooming superstar draftee Reggie Lewis passing away.
Go back and look at 20 years of NBA championship winners and even finalists from
 
Tim Duncan 1
Kobe Bryant 13(from Europe, if he'd played in college he'd arguably go top 5)
Dwayne Wade 4
Paul pierce 10
Dirk Nowitzki 9 (similarly to Kobe )
Hakeem 1
Allen Iverson 1
Shaq 1
Durant 1
Barkley 5
Magic Johnson 1
Michael Jordan 1
Lebron James 1
Dwight Howard 1
Kareem 1(with bucks)

Similarly you could look at NBA league MVPs and see a direct correlation.

People just don't understand or choose to ignore the blatant, obvious and painfully truthful fact that lottery picks win championships.
To get these players and number one picks, throughout recent NBA history (at least the past 25 years) teams have landed these picks the majority of the time by being very bad for a period or getting very lucky/swindling another team.
Even we were amazingly lucky to get Pierce at 10 or Mavs getting Dirk at 9 in the same draft.

Now lets look at our current situation. No superstars. We have finished a 5 year run that came via tanking and getting the 5th pick. There is one free agent in Dwight Howard that is of a franchise level. There are no others considered franchise level free agents.

All the franchise players are with other franchise players and dominating the league just as the Heat dominated us.
Andrew Wiggins is the number one prospect in what is considered to be one of the best drafts in NBA history. This is not an exaggeration or oversell. The talent, athleticism, size and skill of this years draft is mind boggling.
History GLARINGLY shows that Wiggins has a greatly higher than expected chance of winning a title through him rather than a re tooling around great but not franchise level guys.

Don't look at it as tanking,, look at it as the only possible way to acquire a talent good enough to take us to the most important goal of all....banner 18.

You do realize that every single team in the NBA has had at least one lottery pick in the draft at some point (that includes all the winners, all the losers, and everyone in between).  So, it kind of goes without saying that there is going to be a correlation with having been a lottery team at some point and subsequently  winning a title.  There is just as strong a correlation between being a lottery team (probably stronger) and being the worst team in the league. 

This fact makes the whole "we must tank this upcoming season" argument look fairly silly. 

[Boris Badenov]

  Maybe it's not as hard as it looks. Maybe you just need to look at your roster and notice you have a player who led the team deep in the playoffs at a young(ish) age and build around him instead of getting rid of him, going to the bottom, hoping you eventually get a star and hoping that you can win with him before he decides to go to a different team (as many of them seem to).

Yes, Tim, but can you identify such a player on the Celtics right now? Curious to know your thoughts about this.

[clover]

People hate rebuilding. It's a slow and boring, painful and frustrating experience.
There are a few ways to do it. Many Celtics fans are disgusted at the thought of tanking for a top 5 pick next year or the shot at a franchise level player, thinking the better option is to add some free agents to our core and work around Rondo.
It's an honourable thought, an idealistic idea that we could re tool on the fly and become a contender relatively quickly. Unfortunately history and evidence don't agree with this option at all.

If you disagree, i want you to brainstorm.
First tell me which current players or free agents could we get to join Rondo that would make us a legitimate contender with teams like Chicago and Miami and OKC around for the next 5 seasons?

Ok so you've got a list. Lets put that list of players out there on the floor against the last 25 years of NBA championship teams. Then lets compare that list with Rondo, to the Celtics roster from 2008 to 2013. Are those players with Rondo a match for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen when they joined our then sole star player Paul Pierce? Who would you compare to KG in the current market of free agents? Anyone? Is Howard as good as KG was in 2008? It's arguable. Can we get Howard? Not likely. After him, is there anyone on Ray or KGs level? No. Not even close.
Now think back to that squad of Pierce, KG and Ray and ask how many championships we won.
Yes they were towards the end of their 'primes' but they were still in their primes and we only managed one championship. KGs injury is a major factor but the fact is we have one banner for that amazing squad.
That's how hard it is to win a championship in the NBA. So how do you win a championship in the modern NBA. Other than teaming together and conspiring in secret like the Miami Heat to form a super trio....
You need to draft a superstar yourself and surround him with the right players. By this I mean you need at least one other all star player and usually two depending on the supporting casts skill set.

The last 10 Years of NBA finalists feature teams with at least one home grown superstar and at least 3 all stars in most cases. In fact only the Mavs had a lone 'superstar' without any all star help in Dirk. The pistons had 4 all stars and are the other exception without a superstar they themselves drafted in the lottery. That's basically
The Spurs
Lakers
Celtics
Mavs
Cavs
Magic
OKC

In fact only 6 teams in the last 14 years have gotten rings.
Take that back to the last 20 years and its 8 teams
Now look back at the past 50 NBA champions, even to the beginning of the NBA.
Are there even 4 or 5 teams that don't have a superstar they drafted via tanking?
 Red Auerbach was great at ripping off other teams, but he also had vision and genius to a certain extent. he drafted KC Jones, he drafted tommy heinsohn. he made a draft day heist trade to get bill russell but GM's for the most part don't get hosed like that nowadays. We drafted Bird. In fact the period that we stunk so badly through can arguably be narrowed down to our 1986 2nd overall pick Len Bias passing away before he even played a game, followed by our late blooming superstar draftee Reggie Lewis passing away.
Go back and look at 20 years of NBA championship winners and even finalists from
 
Tim Duncan 1
Kobe Bryant 13(from Europe, if he'd played in college he'd arguably go top 5)
Dwayne Wade 4
Paul pierce 10
Dirk Nowitzki 9 (similarly to Kobe )
Hakeem 1
Allen Iverson 1
Shaq 1
Durant 1
Barkley 5
Magic Johnson 1
Michael Jordan 1
Lebron James 1
Dwight Howard 1
Kareem 1(with bucks)

Similarly you could look at NBA league MVPs and see a direct correlation.

People just don't understand or choose to ignore the blatant, obvious and painfully truthful fact that lottery picks win championships.
To get these players and number one picks, throughout recent NBA history (at least the past 25 years) teams have landed these picks the majority of the time by being very bad for a period or getting very lucky/swindling another team.
Even we were amazingly lucky to get Pierce at 10 or Mavs getting Dirk at 9 in the same draft.

Now lets look at our current situation. No superstars. We have finished a 5 year run that came via tanking and getting the 5th pick. There is one free agent in Dwight Howard that is of a franchise level. There are no others considered franchise level free agents.

All the franchise players are with other franchise players and dominating the league just as the Heat dominated us.
Andrew Wiggins is the number one prospect in what is considered to be one of the best drafts in NBA history. This is not an exaggeration or oversell. The talent, athleticism, size and skill of this years draft is mind boggling.
History GLARINGLY shows that Wiggins has a greatly higher than expected chance of winning a title through him rather than a re tooling around great but not franchise level guys.

Don't look at it as tanking,, look at it as the only possible way to acquire a talent good enough to take us to the most important goal of all....banner 18.

You do realize that every single team in the NBA has had at least one lottery pick in the draft at some point (that includes all the winners, all the losers, and everyone in between).  So, it kind of goes without saying that there is going to be a correlation with having been a lottery team at some point and subsequently  winning a title.  There is just as strong a correlation between being a lottery team (probably stronger) and being the worst team in the league. 

This fact makes the whole "we must tank this upcoming season" argument look fairly silly.

That "fact" doesn't actually credibly address the tanking theory at all.

[PhoSita]

  Maybe it's not as hard as it looks. Maybe you just need to look at your roster and notice you have a player who led the team deep in the playoffs at a young(ish) age and build around him instead of getting rid of him, going to the bottom, hoping you eventually get a star and hoping that you can win with him before he decides to go to a different team (as many of them seem to).

Yes, Tim, but can you identify such a player on the Celtics right now? Curious to know your thoughts about this.

Boris, haven't you posted here long enough to know Tim's answer before you ask?

[BballTim]

  Maybe it's not as hard as it looks. Maybe you just need to look at your roster and notice you have a player who led the team deep in the playoffs at a young(ish) age and build around him instead of getting rid of him, going to the bottom, hoping you eventually get a star and hoping that you can win with him before he decides to go to a different team (as many of them seem to).

Yes, Tim, but can you identify such a player on the Celtics right now? Curious to know your thoughts about this.

  I'd probably go with Rondo, who took a collection of players worse than the group that the Knicks easily dispatched all the way to game 7 of the ECF the year before, and who had the team on a clear path to a tile before picking up an injury in 2010.

[BballTim]

  Maybe it's not as hard as it looks. Maybe you just need to look at your roster and notice you have a player who led the team deep in the playoffs at a young(ish) age and build around him instead of getting rid of him, going to the bottom, hoping you eventually get a star and hoping that you can win with him before he decides to go to a different team (as many of them seem to).

Yes, Tim, but can you identify such a player on the Celtics right now? Curious to know your thoughts about this.

Boris, haven't you posted here long enough to know Tim's answer before you ask?

  Haha.

 

[Celtics18]

Here's another telling fact:

From the 1989 to 2012 draft, exactly six players drafted in the top ten have won titles with the team that drafted them.  Three of them, Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, and Andrew Bynum, were drafted in the 9th or 10th spot.  And, one of them was Darko Milicic.

That leaves only Dwayne Wade and Tim Duncan out of the 240 players drafted in the top ten over that time span who prove the theory that the only way to build a contender is around a player that you acquired high in the draft. 

[BballTim]

Here's another telling fact:

From the 1989 to 2012 draft, exactly six players drafted in the top ten have won titles with the team that drafted them.  Three of them, Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, and Andrew Bynum, were drafted in the 9th or 10th spot.  And, one of them was Darko Milicic.

That leaves only Dwayne Wade and Tim Duncan out of the 240 players drafted in the top ten over that time span who prove the theory that the only way to build a contender is around a player that you acquired high in the draft.

  So 3 out of 240 players were the best player on a title team for the team that drafted them...

  So what you're really saying is there's a *chance* that it will work?

[Boris Badenov]

  Maybe it's not as hard as it looks. Maybe you just need to look at your roster and notice you have a player who led the team deep in the playoffs at a young(ish) age and build around him instead of getting rid of him, going to the bottom, hoping you eventually get a star and hoping that you can win with him before he decides to go to a different team (as many of them seem to).

Yes, Tim, but can you identify such a player on the Celtics right now? Curious to know your thoughts about this.

Boris, haven't you posted here long enough to know Tim's answer before you ask?

  Haha.

 

I guess that one went right over your heads.

Yes, I am in fact aware of Tim's views. I figured I could get away with needling him since I've also been a pretty big Rondo supporter.