Author Topic: Lets look at history and drafting in the lottery related to NBA championships.  (Read 7145 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline chambers

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7483
  • Tommy Points: 943
  • Boston Celtics= Championships, nothing less.
People hate rebuilding. It's a slow and boring, painful and frustrating experience.
There are a few ways to do it. Many Celtics fans are disgusted at the thought of tanking for a top 5 pick next year or the shot at a franchise level player, thinking the better option is to add some free agents to our core and work around Rondo.
It's an honourable thought, an idealistic idea that we could re tool on the fly and become a contender relatively quickly. Unfortunately history and evidence don't agree with this option at all.

If you disagree, i want you to brainstorm.
First tell me which current players or free agents could we get to join Rondo that would make us a legitimate contender with teams like Chicago and Miami and OKC around for the next 5 seasons?

Ok so you've got a list. Lets put that list of players out there on the floor against the last 25 years of NBA championship teams. Then lets compare that list with Rondo, to the Celtics roster from 2008 to 2013. Are those players with Rondo a match for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen when they joined our then sole star player Paul Pierce? Who would you compare to KG in the current market of free agents? Anyone? Is Howard as good as KG was in 2008? It's arguable. Can we get Howard? Not likely. After him, is there anyone on Ray or KGs level? No. Not even close.
Now think back to that squad of Pierce, KG and Ray and ask how many championships we won.
Yes they were towards the end of their 'primes' but they were still in their primes and we only managed one championship. KGs injury is a major factor but the fact is we have one banner for that amazing squad.
That's how hard it is to win a championship in the NBA. So how do you win a championship in the modern NBA. Other than teaming together and conspiring in secret like the Miami Heat to form a super trio....
You need to draft a superstar yourself and surround him with the right players. By this I mean you need at least one other all star player and usually two depending on the supporting casts skill set.

The last 10 Years of NBA finalists feature teams with at least one home grown superstar and at least 3 all stars in most cases. In fact only the Mavs had a lone 'superstar' without any all star help in Dirk. The pistons had 4 all stars and are the other exception without a superstar they themselves drafted in the lottery. That's basically
The Spurs
Lakers
Celtics
Mavs
Cavs
Magic
OKC

In fact only 6 teams in the last 14 years have gotten rings.
Take that back to the last 20 years and its 8 teams
Now look back at the past 50 NBA champions, even to the beginning of the NBA.
Are there even 4 or 5 teams that don't have a superstar they drafted via tanking?
 Red Auerbach was great at ripping off other teams, but he also had vision and genius to a certain extent. he drafted KC Jones, he drafted tommy heinsohn. he made a draft day heist trade to get bill russell but GM's for the most part don't get hosed like that nowadays. We drafted Bird. In fact the period that we stunk so badly through can arguably be narrowed down to our 1986 2nd overall pick Len Bias passing away before he even played a game, followed by our late blooming superstar draftee Reggie Lewis passing away.
Go back and look at 20 years of NBA championship winners and even finalists from
 
Tim Duncan 1
Kobe Bryant 13(from Europe, if he'd played in college he'd arguably go top 5)
Dwayne Wade 4
Paul pierce 10
Dirk Nowitzki 9 (similarly to Kobe )
Hakeem 1
Allen Iverson 1
Shaq 1
Durant 1
Barkley 5
Magic Johnson 1
Michael Jordan 1
Lebron James 1
Dwight Howard 1
Kareem 1(with bucks)

Similarly you could look at NBA league MVPs and see a direct correlation.

People just don't understand or choose to ignore the blatant, obvious and painfully truthful fact that lottery picks win championships.
To get these players and number one picks, throughout recent NBA history (at least the past 25 years) teams have landed these picks the majority of the time by being very bad for a period or getting very lucky/swindling another team.
Even we were amazingly lucky to get Pierce at 10 or Mavs getting Dirk at 9 in the same draft.

Now lets look at our current situation. No superstars. We have finished a 5 year run that came via tanking and getting the 5th pick. There is one free agent in Dwight Howard that is of a franchise level. There are no others considered franchise level free agents.

All the franchise players are with other franchise players and dominating the league just as the Heat dominated us.
Andrew Wiggins is the number one prospect in what is considered to be one of the best drafts in NBA history. This is not an exaggeration or oversell. The talent, athleticism, size and skill of this years draft is mind boggling.
History GLARINGLY shows that Wiggins has a greatly higher than expected chance of winning a title through him rather than a re tooling around great but not franchise level guys.

Don't look at it as tanking,, look at it as the only possible way to acquire a talent good enough to take us to the most important goal of all....banner 18.




"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
In before

[Insert post about how the Pistons prove we can win with Rondo]
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Offline Eja117

  • NCE
  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19274
  • Tommy Points: 1254
You may want to offset this a bit with the odens. There's also the value of tanking vs just getting lucky. Yes Orlando got Shaq. Then they got Chris Webber the next year.

Offline LatterDayCelticsfan

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2256
  • Tommy Points: 175
  • Ruto Must Go!
This is just the kind of dangerous oversimplification that really gets my goat re: the pro tanking argument. As much as all these title winning rosters all had lottery picks in the hearts, it strikes me as more a coincidence than an outright cause, never. Firstly as a matter of fact every draft has to have 10 `lottery picks.` With 20-30 franchises tanking, trading and otherwise squabbling over them every season over the past 3 decades. In that time pretty much every single NBA has had at least 1 top 10 if not top 5 lottery pick yet in that time only a small minority have landed titles. Why?
Ruto Must Go!

Offline Eja117

  • NCE
  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19274
  • Tommy Points: 1254
Right. You definitely can't make the case the Celtics tanked for Paul pierce and won a ring for it. They tanked for billups and Jeff green
« Last Edit: July 01, 2013, 08:31:20 AM by eja117 »

Offline LatterDayCelticsfan

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2256
  • Tommy Points: 175
  • Ruto Must Go!
 You can also make a case that pretty much every [dang] NBA has had at least 1 top 5 pick in the past 30 years yet its the same 5 or 6 teams wining title after title after title
Ruto Must Go!

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
Being "pro-tanking" doesn't mean that you believe "If you tank, you will get a superstar."

The lottery is a gamble.  It's a percentage proposition.  It is not by any means a sure thing.

The problem is that the NBA is designed so that playing the lottery and hoping to get the right guy to lead you into the next era gives you the best odds.  They aren't good odds, but they're the best you can really hope for.

So sure, there are other ways to build a contender, or get a franchise star.  But those other ways are even less likely to have a successful result.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Offline Rondo2287

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13009
  • Tommy Points: 816
If the celtics manage to be the worst team in the league the chances of them getting the #1 pick and Wiggins or Parker are far greater than the odds of them signing a top tier free agent.
CB Draft LA Lakers: Lamarcus Aldridge, Carmelo Anthony,Jrue Holiday, Wes Matthews  6.11, 7.16, 8.14, 8.15, 9.16, 11.5, 11.16

Offline bfrombleacher

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3343
  • Tommy Points: 367
Being "pro-tanking" doesn't mean that you believe "If you tank, you will get a superstar."

The lottery is a gamble.  It's a percentage proposition.  It is not by any means a sure thing.

The problem is that the NBA is designed so that playing the lottery and hoping to get the right guy to lead you into the next era gives you the best odds.  They aren't good odds, but they're the best you can really hope for.

So sure, there are other ways to build a contender, or get a franchise star.  But those other ways are even less likely to have a successful result.

Teams have gotten superstars and made nothing out of it.

This era alone you have LeBron, Melo, Dwight Howard, Rose, Wade, Durant, Chris Paul, Westbrook, Aldridge, Bosh, D-Will...

Rose and the OKC duo are probably the closest to a championship.

Offline oldutican

  • Joe Mazzulla
  • Posts: 138
  • Tommy Points: 12
By this logic, at least half the teams in the NBA should be shredding their rosters in a plan to have the worst record in the league. This Celtics team as constituted is not one of the bottom 4-5 teams. If you want that, then you get rid of the only star you have, Rondo, in the hopes of MAYBE drafting one or two guys who are better than the guy you are getting rid of.


Offline LatterDayCelticsfan

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2256
  • Tommy Points: 175
  • Ruto Must Go!
Even if it is true that the most sure fire way of landing a franchise player is securing a really high draft pick, what I don`t see being acknowledged, or being deliberately understated is that drafting in the lottery is at best step one of a long process which eventally requires manipulating all those other methods of acquiring top level talent to eventually fill out that title wining roster. 
Ruto Must Go!

Offline Rondo2287

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13009
  • Tommy Points: 816
By this logic, at least half the teams in the NBA should be shredding their rosters in a plan to have the worst record in the league. This Celtics team as constituted is not one of the bottom 4-5 teams. If you want that, then you get rid of the only star you have, Rondo, in the hopes of MAYBE drafting one or two guys who are better than the guy you are getting rid of.

Most GM's dont have the job security to do a complete tear down and rebuild like Danny does.  Most GM's would be fired for being the worst team in the league for a few years.  Also most ownership is worried about selling tickets and wouldnt support a complete tear down and rebuild for that reason.  Wyc and Co. will support danny.

Alot of teams struggle to stay relevant in the playoff discussion and make moves to try and get that 6-8th seed.  (Toronto, Milwaukee, Detroit, etc.)  Boston isnt driven by getting into the playoffs, they are championship driven.  Look at these pictures and let me know if you see the difference.



CB Draft LA Lakers: Lamarcus Aldridge, Carmelo Anthony,Jrue Holiday, Wes Matthews  6.11, 7.16, 8.14, 8.15, 9.16, 11.5, 11.16

Offline sed522002

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2280
  • Tommy Points: 221
Let's just say that theory is completely true. If Ainge hadn't traded for Allen and Garnett and just kept Jeff Green do you think the C's would have won a ring by now or be contenders? Drafting in the lottery doesn't guarantee you're getting a superstar.

Offline Boris Badenov

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5227
  • Tommy Points: 1065
I think that people are maybe drawing a bright line between "tanking" and "not tanking" that really doesn't exist.

Danny has proven that he can acquire assets and turn them into a championship team.

Right now he is in asset-acqusition mode. Next will come turning those assets into high-quality players.

Maybe the path will be getting a high pick that turns into a superstar (long shot).

Maybe it'll be getting a solid lottery pick in a loaded draft and packaging that player plus other assets for a star (e.g., as with Green for Ray).

Maybe it'll be by drafting exceptionally well and then packaging a lesser star plus assets for a major star (e.g., Al Jeff for KG).

I would be shocked if Danny has his heart set on any of these paths right now. He's probably going to see how free agency develops, and what Rondo's return looks like.

Then he'll adapt and try to pursue the path that leaves us with the biggest stockpile of assets one year from now.

Depending on how this unfolds, we could be back in contention in 2-3 years (that would be hitting the lottery, quite literally). Or it might take longer.

There's reason for optimism IMO. Danny's last rebuild took 4-5 years, and I think the assets we have now are pretty comparable to what we had in 2003.

But anyway my approach will be to sit back and watch it all happen, and he hopeful that Danny makes good decisions - and gets a little lucky. We'll need both.

Offline clover

  • Front Page Moderator
  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6130
  • Tommy Points: 315
I believe more of what you are seeing is the effect of poorly managed--and/or economically poor--teams, rather than simply the result of appearances in the lottery.