My thoughts on Ainge's next move

[BudweiserCeltic]

I really have no clue who's propagating this missing half the year stuff... he'll be ready for the beginning of the season or close to it. Whether he plays or not is another story.

People are making a common sense assumption that Rondo's type of injury means he will miss a year.  Common sense is sometimes wrong.

It's not common sense though, which is a problem in itself.

[GreenEnvy]

I think the memory of the KG and Ray trades is so vivid to some people that they have forgotten that those moves were plan B. AInge went in that directio AFTER we lost the lottery and missed out on Oden/Durant.

If we land the 1st or second pick next year, would you trade what is likely the next Durant/Lebron type of superstar?

I think he will take the same route this time and if we land a top 2 pick in 2014 we will keep it. That team when we traded for KG and Ray was not that different than now.

Sullinger=Jefferson, Pierce=Rondo, Brooks=Gerald Green.

Very similar situation, except Rondo is a bit younger and has already been to the top of the mountain once.

Jefferson was already a proven double-double machine and had no significant injury history. Sully isn't nearly as valuable now as Big Al was after the 2006-2007 season.

Rondo's value is not and probably never will be as high as Pierce's was during his peak. I don't think there is really much to debate here. A player with elite scoring ability and a great passing/rebounding swingman is more attractive than a pass-first PG with an extremely unique skill set.

I wouldn't say Brooks' potential is near 2007 Green's either. One fell to the teen's in the draft, the other was a late first rounder.


The bottom line is I don't think a Sully/Brooks/picks/expirings can land us a former MVP.

[LooseCannon]

I really have no clue who's propagating this missing half the year stuff... he'll be ready for the beginning of the season or close to it. Whether he plays or not is another story.

People are making a common sense assumption that Rondo's type of injury means he will miss a year.  Common sense is sometimes wrong.

It's not common sense though, which is a problem in itself.

It's a common sense assumption based on a flawed belief that all ACL tears are fungible and perhaps on memories of when torn ACLs were more likely to be career-destroying injuries.  Common sense is overrated, relying too much on inference and intuition to be logically sound.

What I do find interesting is that no one seems to bring up Kendrick Perkins as an example of a player quickly returning back to the court.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I really have no clue who's propagating this missing half the year stuff... he'll be ready for the beginning of the season or close to it. Whether he plays or not is another story.

People are making a common sense assumption that Rondo's type of injury means he will miss a year.  Common sense is sometimes wrong.

It's not common sense though, which is a problem in itself.

It's a common sense assumption based on a flawed belief that all ACL tears are fungible and perhaps on memories of when torn ACLs were more likely to be career-destroying injuries.  Common sense is overrated, relying too much on inference and intuition to be logically sound.

What I do find interesting is that no one seems to bring up Kendrick Perkins as an example of a player quickly returning back to the court.

As I mentioned earlier or in another tread, TA got injured in January, a month earlier than Rondo, and he was ready to go to start the next season...

[BballTim]

I really have no clue who's propagating this missing half the year stuff... he'll be ready for the beginning of the season or close to it. Whether he plays or not is another story.

People are making a common sense assumption that Rondo's type of injury means he will miss a year.  Common sense is sometimes wrong.

   Ignoring every report on a subject with no insight or evidence to dispute it isn't really common sense. It's simply making things up to support your argument.

[LooseCannon]

I really have no clue who's propagating this missing half the year stuff... he'll be ready for the beginning of the season or close to it. Whether he plays or not is another story.

People are making a common sense assumption that Rondo's type of injury means he will miss a year.  Common sense is sometimes wrong.

   Ignoring every report on a subject with no insight or evidence to dispute it isn't really common sense. It's simply making things up to support your argument.

People who rely on common sense are often morons.  I think we're really just disagreeing on the definition of common sense.  Perhaps it would be better if I used the term "conventional wisdom"?

[chambers]

It's a good call. I mean you can say that Olnyk is NBA ready to an extent but he's only going out there to get killed in his rookie season. His defense needs work, his finishing skills around the rim need work. He can shoot well and has a great handle but he's miles away from being a key piece to an NBA starting 5.
I think Danny really just sees potential in him. It's hard to find guys with that size and footwork who can also shoot and dribble. I think he sees a poor man's Dirk Nowitzki to an extent. What people don't normally know about Olnyk is how good he became so quickly. He was a benchwarmer 3 seasons ago and was contemplating quitting basketball. He even redshirted his sophomore year to work on his game and didn't play at all. He then came back as a starter and turned his flab into muscle and had developed a very nice dribble/drive game and some back to basket moves. Watch him from even 2 years ago and it's like watching a different person. Danny is hoping this line of improvement continues.


I actually don't think Danny would go after anyone this offseason or from this free agent market other than Dwight. There's just no one good enough on a franchise level. Danny knows you need 2 top tier All Star level guys to even compete for a championship. We have Rondo and Jeff Green but Green is still a complementary piece to a legitimate 'give me the reigns' leading scorer on a contender. The only one that's close is Josh Smith and even then we'd have to force him to shoot inside the key to make the most out of him- then surround him and Rondo with shooters because teams would clog the paint all night.

I think Danny is going to call about Dwight Howard but I don't think he's getting anywhere.
His next most realistic move is trading Rondo for a young asset and a lottery pick of some kind.
There are two ways this likely happens;
1) Something like Rondo to the Mavs for Marion, Larkin, Craeder, and 2 first round picks. We take back salary and get a nice young asset and some picks ensuring we suck for the 14' draft.

2) the second option is a three team trade that sees us land a monstrous lottery pick of some kind (hopefully in 2014). Here's an example off the top of my head. This trade also doesn't happen till the Feb deadline because we don't want the Bobcats winning too many games. Heck you could even agree to it in principle then pull the trigger after the season ends.

Trade the following:

*Rajon Rondo+Marshon Brooks+2016 Nets 1st round pick to OKC
*Russell Westbrook+Jeff Green+ Nets 2015 1st round pick to Charlotte Bobcats
*Charlotte Bobcats unprotected 2014 first round pick and Tyrus Thomas+Ben Gordon also to Boston.

Try to basically get 2 lottery picks in 2014 and the only salary we have are deals that expire within 2 seasons. (Wallace 2 seasons, Thomas+Gordon 1 season). You can replace those expiring Bobcats deals with whoever you want but you get the picture. OKC get's Rondo at 12 million for 2 more years instead of Westbrook at 16 million. Giving them money to go after JJ Reddick, giving them an all star point guard who looks to pass first and run the break, utilizing Ibaka and Durants stretch/jumpshooting ability and giving Durant an overall extra 10 shots a game. (Only a good thing).
Bobcats get an All star guard and a solid small forward who'll add 40-50 points per game to their core, along with Zeller and Gilchrist should be a serious threat, particularly with money left over to sign a top power forward free agent in 2014-15 off season (Gasol, Randoph, Amir Johnson etc)


Back to the Celtics,
I'm sure one of the above is Danny's plan.
Perhaps with Utah for Enes Kanter, an expiring and a first round pick or something instead of the Mavs.

My dream would be to move Rondo+Green+picks in a three way trade that lands us another lottery pick.
Would a team like Charlotte give up a top 5 pick in 2014 for Westbrook+Green? I don't know. They get an All Star and a borderline all star and clear space for another free agent.
MJ has to start making money out of that franchise soon I guess. I'd say they'd think long and hard.

[LooseCannon]

It's a good call. I mean you can say that Olnyk is NBA ready to an extent but he's only going out there to get killed in his rookie season. His defense needs work, his finishing skills around the rim need work. He can shoot well and has a great handle but he's miles away from being a key piece to an NBA starting 5.

NBA-ready can mean capable of stepping into the rotation as a back-up role.  It doesn't mean he's an immediate starter, it just means he doesn't have things to learn in the D-League.

[BudweiserCeltic]

What do you think of a roster containing:

Rajon Rondo
J. J. Redick - Bradley
Jeff Green - Wallace
Josh Smith - Sully
Al Jefferson

Don't care about you thinking if it's possible or not, just interested if something with that make-up can be effective to compete.

[vjcsmoke]

Everyone can make the case that we have so many assets that we can surround this superstar with a supporting cast, I can also make a case that we have a very good core already use those assets to acquire more than one non superstars but very good talent and a very solid bench. We'll have a much better team.

Nice Theory you got there but when was the last team to sport an ensemble cast rather than a Superstar actually win the NBA championship?

2013 Heat - Lebron*, Wade, Bosh
2012 Heat - Lebron*, Wade, Bosh
2011 Mavs - Dirk*, Chandler, Kidd
2010 Lakers - Kobe*, Gasol
2009 Lakers - Kobe*, Gasol
2008 Celtics - KG*, Pierce, Allen
2007 Spurs - Duncan*, Parker, Ginobili
2006 Heat - Wade*, Shaq, Mourning, Payton
2005 Spurs - Duncan*, Parker, Ginobili
2004 Pistons - Billups, Prince, Wallace/Wallace

Yeah, the only team that did it without a superstar in the past 10 years is the 2004 Pistons.  1 in 10 odds I do not like for winning a championship. 

A superstar plus a solid cast is still the way to go.  If you can get 3 stars and one of them a Superstar that gives you your best chance.

Hopefully we land Wiggins or Parker in 2014, that's our best shot.

[D.o.s.]

I really have no clue who's propagating this missing half the year stuff... he'll be ready for the beginning of the season or close to it. Whether he plays or not is another story.

People are making a common sense assumption that Rondo's type of injury means he will miss a year.  Common sense is sometimes wrong.

   Ignoring every report on a subject with no insight or evidence to dispute it isn't really common sense. It's simply making things up to support your argument.

People who rely on common sense are often morons.  I think we're really just disagreeing on the definition of common sense.  Perhaps it would be better if I used the term "conventional wisdom"?

For every Adrian Peterson, there is everyone else.

The typical timeline--as in, the range of the regular, is 6-12 months of recovery time after surgery. That's for normal human beings. In this regard, athletes are normal human beings.

You could reasonably expect Rondo to return to practice and things like that anywhere between that 6-12 month range. There's no way to tell, because everyone's body is different.

Where athletes differ is in their own conditioning and the amount of stress their bodies have to endure for their livelihood. There is a gargantuan difference between "able to play" and "in playing shape." Don't believe me? Google around for that picture of John Wall at a Wizards practice after his knee surgery.

That takes time. Remember the lockout? Remember how long it took some of those guys to get back into playing shape? You can't attribute every case of that to laziness.

So, yes, Rondo might be back on the floor before the all star break, but he might not, and there's absolutely no way to tell, so saying "he'll be back for training camp" holds just as much merit as saying "he'll be out for the entire season."

For my money, Rondo doesn't round into Capital R Capital R Rajon Rondo until around the All-Star break, which would be about 12 months after his surgery. He'll almost certainly be a presence at training camp, but that's a little bit of a misleading statement in and of itself--remember, Rose was practicing with the Bulls long before he got the ok from the team doctor for live play.

[LarBrd33]

Danny's next move will be trading Rondo.  It's probably not going to happen until after July 10th since that's when the KG/Pierce deal officially goes down.  At that point, we'll probably look to package Rondo with some bad contracts and take back some youth/picks.  I don't think we'll see Rondo play another game in Boston.

[BballTim]

I really have no clue who's propagating this missing half the year stuff... he'll be ready for the beginning of the season or close to it. Whether he plays or not is another story.

People are making a common sense assumption that Rondo's type of injury means he will miss a year.  Common sense is sometimes wrong.

   Ignoring every report on a subject with no insight or evidence to dispute it isn't really common sense. It's simply making things up to support your argument.

People who rely on common sense are often morons.  I think we're really just disagreeing on the definition of common sense.  Perhaps it would be better if I used the term "conventional wisdom"?

  Love the first comment, although you'd have to qualify it somehow, like "people who rely on common sense when they don't have any". In any case. if Rondo's reported return time is within the normal range of time when you'd expect it to occur (even if it's closer to the beginning than the end) ignoring those reports isn't conventional wisdom. It's one thing to say Rondo's recovery  could be slower than expected, it's another to state it will take much longer than expected like it's a fact.

[BballTim]

Danny's next move will be trading Rondo.  It's probably not going to happen until after July 10th since that's when the KG/Pierce deal officially goes down.  At that point, we'll probably look to package Rondo with some bad contracts and take back some youth/picks.  I don't think we'll see Rondo play another game in Boston.

  It's hard to imagine that Danny will be able to trade Rondo at all with him having a knee injury that (according to you) might be career ending. Get used to seeing him on the team I guess.

[BballTim]

I really have no clue who's propagating this missing half the year stuff... he'll be ready for the beginning of the season or close to it. Whether he plays or not is another story.

People are making a common sense assumption that Rondo's type of injury means he will miss a year.  Common sense is sometimes wrong.

   Ignoring every report on a subject with no insight or evidence to dispute it isn't really common sense. It's simply making things up to support your argument.

People who rely on common sense are often morons.  I think we're really just disagreeing on the definition of common sense.  Perhaps it would be better if I used the term "conventional wisdom"?

For every Adrian Peterson, there is everyone else.

The typical timeline--as in, the range of the regular, is 6-12 months of recovery time after surgery. That's for normal human beings. In this regard, athletes are normal human beings.

You could reasonably expect Rondo to return to practice and things like that anywhere between that 6-12 month range. There's no way to tell, because everyone's body is different.

Where athletes differ is in their own conditioning and the amount of stress their bodies have to endure for their livelihood. There is a gargantuan difference between "able to play" and "in playing shape." Don't believe me? Google around for that picture of John Wall at a Wizards practice after his knee surgery.

That takes time. Remember the lockout? Remember how long it took some of those guys to get back into playing shape? You can't attribute every case of that to laziness.

So, yes, Rondo might be back on the floor before the all star break, but he might not, and there's absolutely no way to tell, so saying "he'll be back for training camp" holds just as much merit as saying "he'll be out for the entire season."

  If the typical timeline is 6-12 months then the start of training camp would be roughly the mid-point of that. Saying he'll be playing at 9 months in an expected 6-12 month window has much more merit than saying he'll miss at least 15 months. And I'll go out on a limb and say your claim that Rondo might show up to camp in as out of shape as some of those post-strike players did will look pretty silly.