Officially Wiggins or Bust

[fairweatherfan]

I have three problems with the news of the last few hours:

1. Danny Ainge is blowing it up, gathering draft picks like crazy, and wants the fans to trust his ability to judge talent andhe is going to build through the draft. But then he goes out and trades UP in this draft to get the guy with possibly the least upside and biggest bust potential in this draft. That's after picking Melo last year, JuJuan Johnson the year before and JR Giddens another year.

2. His vision is to build through the draft but he has handicapped this team over the next two years with contracts like Wallace's, Bass', and Lee's to add to the contracts of Green and Rondo that come to over $20 million a year. He has no cap flexibility while having a bad team that will have to add a couple a players a year for the next three years.

I think something almost everyone is missing is that, well, we don't have to actually use all these here draft picks.  These are chips we can use in deals for established players, or, if we do use them, we can develop guys for a year or two and then use them to help get established players. 

Danny is trying to accrue assets, not hit on umpteen straight late firsts to form a 5 green lion basketball Votlron.  Will it work?  Way too soon to say.  But future 1st round picks have value well before you actually pick somebody with them.

[bfrombleacher]

Danny is trying to accrue assets, not hit on umpteen straight late firsts to form a 5 green lion basketball Votlron.  Will it work?  Way too soon to say.  But future 1st round picks have value well before you actually pick somebody with them.

BUT I WANTED EXACTLY THAT! LOL

The technology is there. Ainge should have used it! We could have our own Kevin Durant in our lab by 2020




Edit: Dang. Slow celticsblog is making me super impatient.

[LarBrd33]

I have three problems with the news of the last few hours:

1. Danny Ainge is blowing it up, gathering draft picks like crazy, and wants the fans to trust his ability to judge talent andhe is going to build through the draft. But then he goes out and trades UP in this draft to get the guy with possibly the least upside and biggest bust potential in this draft. That's after picking Melo last year, JuJuan Johnson the year before and JR Giddens another year.

2. His vision is to build through the draft but he has handicapped this team over the next two years with contracts like Wallace's, Bass', and Lee's to add to the contracts of Green and Rondo that come to over $20 million a year. He has no cap flexibility while having a bad team that will have to add a couple a players a year for the next three years.

3. Gambling on winning the lottery has screwed this team twice before. The chances of landing that guy are not good. The chances of replicating what OKC has done, is not good. Talent with experience will beat talent with very little experience, almost all the time in the NBA. Even the elitest of talent takes years to develop enough experience to lead a team to a title and many times, its not with the team that drafted them. So there is the very real chance you could lose then before they get good enough to win you a title.

#1 - I've had my run-ins with a fair share of Celtic fans.  90% chance that by Summer League half this forum will be calling Olynyk the next "Dirk Nowitzki" or "Larry Bird".  You know this to be true.  And then mid-season at the deadline when rumors start swirling about Kevin Love wanting out of Minny... you'll see plenty of posters saying, 'NO WAY WOULD I GIVE UP OLYNYK FOR A PLAYER LIKE LOVE... IN TWO YEARS OLYNYK WILL BE BETTER THAN LOVE!!".   Ainge has a good record with draft picks... gotta give him a pass on this one.  Sorry. 

#2 - I don't think it's possible to "handicap" a team financially that is clearly planning on tanking next year and probably again the year after that. Plus, we dumped Terry's salary and Humphries is expiring.  We are LESS financially "handicapped" than we would have been had we kept these guys since KG and Terry would have still been on our books.  Plus, if you have no intention of winning for the next two years, you probably don't want to sign impact players anyways... you want golden top 5 picks.   Cap space is nice, but signing like Smith (who will help you win games... but not enough games) is counterproductive to a proper tank job.  And then in 3 years when this team is really to pounce again, that Wallace contract will be a very valuable expiring piece that we can package with our expendable young assets and land another impact player.   It's a process... a 3-5 year process.  Ainge successfully turned us into a contender in 4 years the last time around.  One final FYI, Humphries has some value at the deadline since he's a big expiring contract that can be packaged with any number of assets... maybe we can take on another terrible 3 year deal for Humphries (that will line up with Wallace) and pick up ANOTHER draft pick out of it.  Flexibility isn't lacking here.

#3 - Gambling on the lotto in 1997 "screwed" this team... i guess...  I mean, Ainge wasn't in charge back then.  And what was our alternative in 1997?... Trade for Shaq?  Sign Michael Jordan?  Also, the 1997 draft was pretty top-heavy.  Keith Van Horn went #2.  Know who we took #3?... Chauncey Billups... dude was eventually Finals MVP for the Pistons.  Not like we completely struck out there.  Billups ended up being a 5 time all-star. Important to note that 2014 draft is supposedly loaded with several superstar or star level players.  "Gambling" on the lotto in 2007 netted us a #5 pick that was key to bringing in Ray Allen... which was key to bringing in Kevin Garnett (Theo Ratliff's expiring contract was a huge part of that deal, btw... that's what Wallace could be for us in 3 years).  It's not possible to say that "tanking" failed for Ainge when literally the only time we "tanked" we won a championship the very next year.  There is no possible better outcome than that.  That's a 1 billion % success rate.   

All about perspective.  Your concerns aren't valid.  Ainge is a brilliant GM and this was absolutely the smart move.  It's a long-term vision move.  I've been whining and complaining and wanting this team to tank since we stopped being contenders in 2011.  I had to suffer through two dreadful seasons of also-ran basketball where we had no realistic chance of winning a title... and listen to all these overly optimistic fans tell me about how a 41 win team built around near-retiring former stars could miraculously win a title in a Superstar's league.  It doesn't happen.  Not in the real world, at least.   Thrilled we are finally tanking... thrilled it is happening before the 2014 draft.  If you're going to do it, you might as well do it before the draft that is considered the best in over a decade.  This is definitely the best play.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I have three problems with the news of the last few hours:

1. Danny Ainge is blowing it up, gathering draft picks like crazy, and wants the fans to trust his ability to judge talent andhe is going to build through the draft. But then he goes out and trades UP in this draft to get the guy with possibly the least upside and biggest bust potential in this draft. That's after picking Melo last year, JuJuan Johnson the year before and JR Giddens another year.

2. His vision is to build through the draft but he has handicapped this team over the next two years with contracts like Wallace's, Bass', and Lee's to add to the contracts of Green and Rondo that come to over $20 million a year. He has no cap flexibility while having a bad team that will have to add a couple a players a year for the next three years.

3. Gambling on winning the lottery has screwed this team twice before. The chances of landing that guy are not good. The chances of replicating what OKC has done, is not good. Talent with experience will beat talent with very little experience, almost all the time in the NBA. Even the elitest of talent takes years to develop enough experience to lead a team to a title and many times, its not with the team that drafted them. So there is the very real chance you could lose then before they get good enough to win you a title.

Thank you NICK!

I don't see the problem of just keeping them if the only value we get is what we got?

Olynyk could benefit great with KG as a mentor. The young guys have leaders to look up too. We are competing, we are instilling a winning attitude to the young guys. We clear cap space next year anyway, sure we don't get the top 5 pick but we'd have some guys buying in into a certain team identity and having a winning attitude.

We get the top 5 pick, but what happens if the locker room is in disarray, no leaders, no identity? We are risking our team to be the Sacramento Kings, full of talent, no team identity and no winning culture. If this is all Danny could get, he should have just ran it one more time. Instead, we get Crash, who not only kill some of our cap, but will take PT from Green. 1st round picks that are late rounds and a bunch of talented guys in a team that has NO chemistry and winning attitude.

Great.

[rutzan]

I have three problems with the news of the last few hours:

1. Danny Ainge is blowing it up, gathering draft picks like crazy, and wants the fans to trust his ability to judge talent andhe is going to build through the draft. But then he goes out and trades UP in this draft to get the guy with possibly the least upside and biggest bust potential in this draft. That's after picking Melo last year, JuJuan Johnson the year before and JR Giddens another year.

2. His vision is to build through the draft but he has handicapped this team over the next two years with contracts like Wallace's, Bass', and Lee's to add to the contracts of Green and Rondo that come to over $20 million a year. He has no cap flexibility while having a bad team that will have to add a couple a players a year for the next three years.

3. Gambling on winning the lottery has screwed this team twice before. The chances of landing that guy are not good. The chances of replicating what OKC has done, is not good. Talent with experience will beat talent with very little experience, almost all the time in the NBA. Even the elitest of talent takes years to develop enough experience to lead a team to a title and many times, its not with the team that drafted them. So there is the very real chance you could lose then before they get good enough to win you a title.

#1 - I've had my run-ins with a fair share of Celtic fans.  90% chance that by Summer League half this forum will be calling Olynyk the next "Dirk Nowitzki" or "Larry Bird".  You know this to be true.  And then mid-season at the deadline when rumors start swirling about Kevin Love wanting out of Minny... you'll see plenty of posters saying, 'NO WAY WOULD I GIVE UP OLYNYK FOR A PLAYER LIKE LOVE... IN TWO YEARS OLYNYK WILL BE BETTER THAN LOVE!!".   Ainge has a good record with draft picks... gotta give him a pass on this one.  Sorry. 

#2 - I don't think it's possible to "handicap" a team financially that is clearly planning on tanking next year and probably again the year after that. Plus, we dumped Terry's salary and Humphries is expiring.  We are LESS financially "handicapped" than we would have been had we kept these guys since KG and Terry would have still been on our books.  Plus, if you have no intention of winning for the next two years, you probably don't want to sign impact players anyways... you want golden top 5 picks.   Cap space is nice, but signing like Smith (who will help you win games... but not enough games) is counterproductive to a proper tank job.  And then in 3 years when this team is really to pounce again, that Wallace contract will be a very valuable expiring piece that we can package with our expendable young assets and land another impact player.   It's a process... a 3-5 year process.  Ainge successfully turned us into a contender in 4 years the last time around.  One final FYI, Humphries has some value at the deadline since he's a big expiring contract that can be packaged with any number of assets... maybe we can take on another terrible 3 year deal for Humphries (that will line up with Wallace) and pick up ANOTHER draft pick out of it.  Flexibility isn't lacking here.

#3 - Gambling on the lotto in 1997 "screwed" this team... i guess...  I mean, Ainge wasn't in charge back then.  And what was our alternative in 1997?... Trade for Shaq?  Sign Michael Jordan?    "Gambling" on the lotto in 2007 netted us a #5 pick that was key to bringing in Ray Allen... which was key to bringing in Kevin Garnett (Theo Ratliff's expiring contract was a huge part of that deal, btw... that's what Wallace could be for us in 3 years).  It's not possible to say that "tanking" failed for Ainge when literally the only time we "tanked" we won a championship the very next year.  There is no possible better outcome than that.  That's a 1 billion % success rate.   

All about perspective.  Your concerns aren't valid.  Ainge is a brilliant GM and this was absolutely the smart move.  It's a long-term vision move.  I've been whining and complaining and wanting this team to tank since we stopped being contenders in 2011.  I had to suffer through two dreadful seasons of also-ran basketball where we had no realistic chance of winning a title... and listen to all these overly optimistic fans tell me about how a 41 win team built around near-retiring former stars could miraculously win a title in a Superstar's league.  It doesn't happen.  Not in the real world, at least.   Thrilled we are finally tanking... thrilled it is happening before the 2014 draft.  If you're going to do it, you might as well do it before the draft that is considered the best in over a decade.  This is definitely the best play.

i would like to know what algorithm you are using to crunch your numbers...

pierce and humphries both expire this year...

kg / 2 years / $24M
wallace / 3 years / $30M

those are facts...not just some numbers pulled out of the air...

[LarBrd33]

I have three problems with the news of the last few hours:

1. Danny Ainge is blowing it up, gathering draft picks like crazy, and wants the fans to trust his ability to judge talent andhe is going to build through the draft. But then he goes out and trades UP in this draft to get the guy with possibly the least upside and biggest bust potential in this draft. That's after picking Melo last year, JuJuan Johnson the year before and JR Giddens another year.

2. His vision is to build through the draft but he has handicapped this team over the next two years with contracts like Wallace's, Bass', and Lee's to add to the contracts of Green and Rondo that come to over $20 million a year. He has no cap flexibility while having a bad team that will have to add a couple a players a year for the next three years.

3. Gambling on winning the lottery has screwed this team twice before. The chances of landing that guy are not good. The chances of replicating what OKC has done, is not good. Talent with experience will beat talent with very little experience, almost all the time in the NBA. Even the elitest of talent takes years to develop enough experience to lead a team to a title and many times, its not with the team that drafted them. So there is the very real chance you could lose then before they get good enough to win you a title.

Thank you NICK!

I don't see the problem of just keeping them if the only value we get is what we got?

Olynyk could benefit great with KG as a mentor. The young guys have leaders to look up too. We are competing, we are instilling a winning attitude to the young guys. We clear cap space next year anyway, sure we don't get the top 5 pick but we'd have some guys buying in into a certain team identity and having a winning attitude.

We get the top 5 pick, but what happens if the locker room is in disarray, no leaders, no identity? We are risking our team to be the Sacramento Kings, full of talent, no team identity and no winning culture. If this is all Danny could get, he should have just ran it one more time. Instead, we get Crash, who not only kill some of our cap, but will take PT from Green. 1st round picks that are late rounds and a bunch of talented guys in a team that has NO chemistry and winning attitude.

Great.

Again... the "tanking in 1997 and 2007 was a bust" is a myth.  See above.   1997 we ended up with the 3rd pick and took a future 5 time all-star and Finals MVP.   In 2007, tanking directly lead to a championship THE VERY NEXT YEAR.

Ya'll really gotta stop acting like tanking doesn't work when it actually HAS worked very well for Ainge.  A 100% success rate. 

[LarBrd33]

I have three problems with the news of the last few hours:

1. Danny Ainge is blowing it up, gathering draft picks like crazy, and wants the fans to trust his ability to judge talent andhe is going to build through the draft. But then he goes out and trades UP in this draft to get the guy with possibly the least upside and biggest bust potential in this draft. That's after picking Melo last year, JuJuan Johnson the year before and JR Giddens another year.

2. His vision is to build through the draft but he has handicapped this team over the next two years with contracts like Wallace's, Bass', and Lee's to add to the contracts of Green and Rondo that come to over $20 million a year. He has no cap flexibility while having a bad team that will have to add a couple a players a year for the next three years.

3. Gambling on winning the lottery has screwed this team twice before. The chances of landing that guy are not good. The chances of replicating what OKC has done, is not good. Talent with experience will beat talent with very little experience, almost all the time in the NBA. Even the elitest of talent takes years to develop enough experience to lead a team to a title and many times, its not with the team that drafted them. So there is the very real chance you could lose then before they get good enough to win you a title.

#1 - I've had my run-ins with a fair share of Celtic fans.  90% chance that by Summer League half this forum will be calling Olynyk the next "Dirk Nowitzki" or "Larry Bird".  You know this to be true.  And then mid-season at the deadline when rumors start swirling about Kevin Love wanting out of Minny... you'll see plenty of posters saying, 'NO WAY WOULD I GIVE UP OLYNYK FOR A PLAYER LIKE LOVE... IN TWO YEARS OLYNYK WILL BE BETTER THAN LOVE!!".   Ainge has a good record with draft picks... gotta give him a pass on this one.  Sorry. 

#2 - I don't think it's possible to "handicap" a team financially that is clearly planning on tanking next year and probably again the year after that. Plus, we dumped Terry's salary and Humphries is expiring.  We are LESS financially "handicapped" than we would have been had we kept these guys since KG and Terry would have still been on our books.  Plus, if you have no intention of winning for the next two years, you probably don't want to sign impact players anyways... you want golden top 5 picks.   Cap space is nice, but signing like Smith (who will help you win games... but not enough games) is counterproductive to a proper tank job.  And then in 3 years when this team is really to pounce again, that Wallace contract will be a very valuable expiring piece that we can package with our expendable young assets and land another impact player.   It's a process... a 3-5 year process.  Ainge successfully turned us into a contender in 4 years the last time around.  One final FYI, Humphries has some value at the deadline since he's a big expiring contract that can be packaged with any number of assets... maybe we can take on another terrible 3 year deal for Humphries (that will line up with Wallace) and pick up ANOTHER draft pick out of it.  Flexibility isn't lacking here.

#3 - Gambling on the lotto in 1997 "screwed" this team... i guess...  I mean, Ainge wasn't in charge back then.  And what was our alternative in 1997?... Trade for Shaq?  Sign Michael Jordan?    "Gambling" on the lotto in 2007 netted us a #5 pick that was key to bringing in Ray Allen... which was key to bringing in Kevin Garnett (Theo Ratliff's expiring contract was a huge part of that deal, btw... that's what Wallace could be for us in 3 years).  It's not possible to say that "tanking" failed for Ainge when literally the only time we "tanked" we won a championship the very next year.  There is no possible better outcome than that.  That's a 1 billion % success rate.   

All about perspective.  Your concerns aren't valid.  Ainge is a brilliant GM and this was absolutely the smart move.  It's a long-term vision move.  I've been whining and complaining and wanting this team to tank since we stopped being contenders in 2011.  I had to suffer through two dreadful seasons of also-ran basketball where we had no realistic chance of winning a title... and listen to all these overly optimistic fans tell me about how a 41 win team built around near-retiring former stars could miraculously win a title in a Superstar's league.  It doesn't happen.  Not in the real world, at least.   Thrilled we are finally tanking... thrilled it is happening before the 2014 draft.  If you're going to do it, you might as well do it before the draft that is considered the best in over a decade.  This is definitely the best play.

i would like to know what algorithm you are using to crunch your numbers...

pierce and humphries both expire this year...

kg / 2 years / $24M
wallace / 3 years / $30M

those are facts...not just some numbers pulled out of the air...

Pierce - 1 year 15.5 mil
KG - 2 years 24 mil
Terry - 2 years 10 million

=  50 million


Humphries - 1 year 12 mil
Wallace - 3 years 30 million

= 42 million

After the 2013-14 season, we'd still be on the hook paying KG 12 mil and Terry 5 mil.   That's 17 mil on the books or the 2014-15 season between those two.

After the 2013-14 season, we'll have Wallace on the hook making 10 mil.  That's 10 mil on the books for the 2014-15 season for that player.


I'm right.  This offers us more financial flexibility.

After 2014-15 Season, Wallace becomes an asset as an expiring contract... right around the time we'll be ready to rise like a Phoenix from the ashes.

[LEHGOCELTICS]

I'm afraid this team is still too good...

1: Rondo/Williams
2: Bradley/Crawford
3: Green/Wallace
4: Sully/Kardashian
5: Olynyk/Melo 

That team is still not worse than the Bobcats, Suns, or Magic. Just hope for the best, or should we expect some ghost injuries like Rose?

[PAOBoston]

I have three problems with the news of the last few hours:

1. Danny Ainge is blowing it up, gathering draft picks like crazy, and wants the fans to trust his ability to judge talent andhe is going to build through the draft. But then he goes out and trades UP in this draft to get the guy with possibly the least upside and biggest bust potential in this draft. That's after picking Melo last year, JuJuan Johnson the year before and JR Giddens another year.

2. His vision is to build through the draft but he has handicapped this team over the next two years with contracts like Wallace's, Bass', and Lee's to add to the contracts of Green and Rondo that come to over $20 million a year. He has no cap flexibility while having a bad team that will have to add a couple a players a year for the next three years.

3. Gambling on winning the lottery has screwed this team twice before. The chances of landing that guy are not good. The chances of replicating what OKC has done, is not good. Talent with experience will beat talent with very little experience, almost all the time in the NBA. Even the elitest of talent takes years to develop enough experience to lead a team to a title and many times, its not with the team that drafted them. So there is the very real chance you could lose then before they get good enough to win you a title.

1. Do you have a crystal ball where you have seen Olynyk become a bust??? He hasnt played a game yet. I'm not saying he'll be good but if he turns out to be a solid rotational big, that is great for this weak draft. Also, I saw you mention sone of Ainge's busts that were chosen in the 20's, but how come you dont mention all the solid players he's picked (Jefferson, West, Allen, Perkins, Rondo, etc)?

2. Humphries is an expiring deal. Wallace gets 10 mil per for the next 3 years. The offseason isnt over yet. There's no guarantee Wallace is even on the roster. Same goes for Rondo and Green as well.

3. How did the celtics get screwed in the lottery? Yeah, they missed out on Duncan. But they drafted Billups, who became a great pg in this league. Too bad C's management was run by buffoons. In 2008, they traded the #5 pick and a boatload of assets they had acquired while, wait for it, REBUILDING, for former lottery picks Ray Allen which also led to forme lottery pick KG. Oh, and Paul Pierce? Yep, lottery pick. Superstars reign supreme in this league. To get them you either have to draft them or you have to have the assets (picks/young players) to get them. Blowing it up and building through the draft works.

[lightspeed5]

I'm afraid this team is still too good...

1: Rondo/Williams
2: Bradley/Crawford
3: Green/Wallace
4: Sully/Kardashian
5: Olynyk/Melo 

That team is still not worse than the Bobcats, Suns, or Magic. Just hope for the best, or should we expect some ghost injuries like Rose?

you realize rondo isnt going to be rondo next year right? he wont even play until the all star break if hes lucky

[rutzan]

I have three problems with the news of the last few hours:

1. Danny Ainge is blowing it up, gathering draft picks like crazy, and wants the fans to trust his ability to judge talent andhe is going to build through the draft. But then he goes out and trades UP in this draft to get the guy with possibly the least upside and biggest bust potential in this draft. That's after picking Melo last year, JuJuan Johnson the year before and JR Giddens another year.

2. His vision is to build through the draft but he has handicapped this team over the next two years with contracts like Wallace's, Bass', and Lee's to add to the contracts of Green and Rondo that come to over $20 million a year. He has no cap flexibility while having a bad team that will have to add a couple a players a year for the next three years.

3. Gambling on winning the lottery has screwed this team twice before. The chances of landing that guy are not good. The chances of replicating what OKC has done, is not good. Talent with experience will beat talent with very little experience, almost all the time in the NBA. Even the elitest of talent takes years to develop enough experience to lead a team to a title and many times, its not with the team that drafted them. So there is the very real chance you could lose then before they get good enough to win you a title.

#1 - I've had my run-ins with a fair share of Celtic fans.  90% chance that by Summer League half this forum will be calling Olynyk the next "Dirk Nowitzki" or "Larry Bird".  You know this to be true.  And then mid-season at the deadline when rumors start swirling about Kevin Love wanting out of Minny... you'll see plenty of posters saying, 'NO WAY WOULD I GIVE UP OLYNYK FOR A PLAYER LIKE LOVE... IN TWO YEARS OLYNYK WILL BE BETTER THAN LOVE!!".   Ainge has a good record with draft picks... gotta give him a pass on this one.  Sorry. 

#2 - I don't think it's possible to "handicap" a team financially that is clearly planning on tanking next year and probably again the year after that. Plus, we dumped Terry's salary and Humphries is expiring.  We are LESS financially "handicapped" than we would have been had we kept these guys since KG and Terry would have still been on our books.  Plus, if you have no intention of winning for the next two years, you probably don't want to sign impact players anyways... you want golden top 5 picks.   Cap space is nice, but signing like Smith (who will help you win games... but not enough games) is counterproductive to a proper tank job.  And then in 3 years when this team is really to pounce again, that Wallace contract will be a very valuable expiring piece that we can package with our expendable young assets and land another impact player.   It's a process... a 3-5 year process.  Ainge successfully turned us into a contender in 4 years the last time around.  One final FYI, Humphries has some value at the deadline since he's a big expiring contract that can be packaged with any number of assets... maybe we can take on another terrible 3 year deal for Humphries (that will line up with Wallace) and pick up ANOTHER draft pick out of it.  Flexibility isn't lacking here.

#3 - Gambling on the lotto in 1997 "screwed" this team... i guess...  I mean, Ainge wasn't in charge back then.  And what was our alternative in 1997?... Trade for Shaq?  Sign Michael Jordan?    "Gambling" on the lotto in 2007 netted us a #5 pick that was key to bringing in Ray Allen... which was key to bringing in Kevin Garnett (Theo Ratliff's expiring contract was a huge part of that deal, btw... that's what Wallace could be for us in 3 years).  It's not possible to say that "tanking" failed for Ainge when literally the only time we "tanked" we won a championship the very next year.  There is no possible better outcome than that.  That's a 1 billion % success rate.   

All about perspective.  Your concerns aren't valid.  Ainge is a brilliant GM and this was absolutely the smart move.  It's a long-term vision move.  I've been whining and complaining and wanting this team to tank since we stopped being contenders in 2011.  I had to suffer through two dreadful seasons of also-ran basketball where we had no realistic chance of winning a title... and listen to all these overly optimistic fans tell me about how a 41 win team built around near-retiring former stars could miraculously win a title in a Superstar's league.  It doesn't happen.  Not in the real world, at least.   Thrilled we are finally tanking... thrilled it is happening before the 2014 draft.  If you're going to do it, you might as well do it before the draft that is considered the best in over a decade.  This is definitely the best play.

i would like to know what algorithm you are using to crunch your numbers...

pierce and humphries both expire this year...

kg / 2 years / $24M
wallace / 3 years / $30M

those are facts...not just some numbers pulled out of the air...

Pierce - 1 year 15.5 mil
KG - 2 years 24 mil
Terry - 2 years 10 million

=  50 million


Humphries - 1 year 12 mil
Wallace - 3 years 30 million

= 42 million

After the 2013-14 season, we'd still be on the hook paying KG 12 mil and Terry 5 mil.   That's 17 mil on the books or the 2014-15 season between those two.

After the 2013-14 season, we'll have Wallace on the hook making 10 mil.  That's 10 mil on the books for the 2014-15 season for that player.


I'm right.  This offers us more financial flexibility.

After 2014-15 Season, Wallace becomes an asset as an expiring contract... right around the time we'll be ready to rise like a Phoenix from the ashes.

a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush...the facts are this...most teams with this minimal type of financial flexibility fail miserably...this isn't disneyland where tinker bell drops golden dust...

[uconnceltic]

Also, to address the topic of the original post, people need to stop getting the idea that we have a chance for Wiggins, or any of the other "consolation" picks. Unless we trade Rondo, this team will be too good to suck that badly.

Okay, so say we do trade Rondo. But there are some truly awful teams out there to compete with for the lottery. Even with Green as our best player, we're already better than Charlotte. Philly and Orlando are pretty bad, too. Then you have Milwaukee, whose entire backcourt has dissipated in a matter of weeks. And in the West, Phoenix is awful, Sacramento is beginning their new rebuild, and a lot of other teams are looking really questionable right now.

Now you argue that we could always trade and move up. If it was hard to do that in this year's draft, imagine what team would budge in next year's.

Bottom line is that Wiggins is NOT an option for us, unless we somehow trade both Rondo and Green so we can absolutely suck miserably. That might be an option, but it's so much less attractive then what could have been a much quicker, less painful rebuilding process.

Not sure how anyone knows how well Boston will play this upcoming season and know how the possible lottery will end up. Wiggins isn't the only player that should be coming out of college next year that can make an impact. Looking at just the incoming freshman I see 4-6 players who can make impact along with a couple of other players in college already. This upcoming draft will be the best one in a number of years and Boston has two picks to help improve the team.

[tarheelsxxiii]

I have three problems with the news of the last few hours:

1. Danny Ainge is blowing it up, gathering draft picks like crazy, and wants the fans to trust his ability to judge talent andhe is going to build through the draft. But then he goes out and trades UP in this draft to get the guy with possibly the least upside and biggest bust potential in this draft. That's after picking Melo last year, JuJuan Johnson the year before and JR Giddens another year.

2. His vision is to build through the draft but he has handicapped this team over the next two years with contracts like Wallace's, Bass', and Lee's to add to the contracts of Green and Rondo that come to over $20 million a year. He has no cap flexibility while having a bad team that will have to add a couple a players a year for the next three years.

3. Gambling on winning the lottery has screwed this team twice before. The chances of landing that guy are not good. The chances of replicating what OKC has done, is not good. Talent with experience will beat talent with very little experience, almost all the time in the NBA. Even the elitest of talent takes years to develop enough experience to lead a team to a title and many times, its not with the team that drafted them. So there is the very real chance you could lose then before they get good enough to win you a title.

Thank you NICK!

I don't see the problem of just keeping them if the only value we get is what we got?

Olynyk could benefit great with KG as a mentor. The young guys have leaders to look up too. We are competing, we are instilling a winning attitude to the young guys. We clear cap space next year anyway, sure we don't get the top 5 pick but we'd have some guys buying in into a certain team identity and having a winning attitude.

We get the top 5 pick, but what happens if the locker room is in disarray, no leaders, no identity? We are risking our team to be the Sacramento Kings, full of talent, no team identity and no winning culture. If this is all Danny could get, he should have just ran it one more time. Instead, we get Crash, who not only kill some of our cap, but will take PT from Green. 1st round picks that are late rounds and a bunch of talented guys in a team that has NO chemistry and winning attitude.

Great.

Again... the "tanking in 1997 and 2007 was a bust" is a myth.  See above.   1997 we ended up with the 3rd pick and took a future 5 time all-star and Finals MVP.   In 2007, tanking directly lead to a championship THE VERY NEXT YEAR.

Ya'll really gotta stop acting like tanking doesn't work when it actually HAS worked very well for Ainge.  A 100% success rate.

Tanking didn't work. McHale worked.

Will you be as excited when we end up with the 15th pick in a "loaded" draft class? And given Prokhorov's willingness to spend out the wazoo, how will you feel when those unprotected picks all end up being in the 20s?

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I have three problems with the news of the last few hours:

1. Danny Ainge is blowing it up, gathering draft picks like crazy, and wants the fans to trust his ability to judge talent andhe is going to build through the draft. But then he goes out and trades UP in this draft to get the guy with possibly the least upside and biggest bust potential in this draft. That's after picking Melo last year, JuJuan Johnson the year before and JR Giddens another year.

2. His vision is to build through the draft but he has handicapped this team over the next two years with contracts like Wallace's, Bass', and Lee's to add to the contracts of Green and Rondo that come to over $20 million a year. He has no cap flexibility while having a bad team that will have to add a couple a players a year for the next three years.

3. Gambling on winning the lottery has screwed this team twice before. The chances of landing that guy are not good. The chances of replicating what OKC has done, is not good. Talent with experience will beat talent with very little experience, almost all the time in the NBA. Even the elitest of talent takes years to develop enough experience to lead a team to a title and many times, its not with the team that drafted them. So there is the very real chance you could lose then before they get good enough to win you a title.

Thank you NICK!

I don't see the problem of just keeping them if the only value we get is what we got?

Olynyk could benefit great with KG as a mentor. The young guys have leaders to look up too. We are competing, we are instilling a winning attitude to the young guys. We clear cap space next year anyway, sure we don't get the top 5 pick but we'd have some guys buying in into a certain team identity and having a winning attitude.

We get the top 5 pick, but what happens if the locker room is in disarray, no leaders, no identity? We are risking our team to be the Sacramento Kings, full of talent, no team identity and no winning culture. If this is all Danny could get, he should have just ran it one more time. Instead, we get Crash, who not only kill some of our cap, but will take PT from Green. 1st round picks that are late rounds and a bunch of talented guys in a team that has NO chemistry and winning attitude.

Great.

Again... the "tanking in 1997 and 2007 was a bust" is a myth.  See above.   1997 we ended up with the 3rd pick and took a future 5 time all-star and Finals MVP.   In 2007, tanking directly lead to a championship THE VERY NEXT YEAR.

Ya'll really gotta stop acting like tanking doesn't work when it actually HAS worked very well for Ainge.  A 100% success rate.

Yeah, like that happens every year. You're telling me that all those draft picks that Danny acquired will be another KG and Ray Allen?

We already have young assets in Bradley, Sullinger, Green and Olynyk. Bass and Lee has value as well. Those assets along with our OWN picks can be flipped to acquire very good talent that can be part of a very good core. Or the young guys could have developed better under Paul and Kevin's leadership. We have cap space next year. Danny has drafted well. We don't have to SUCK to build a team who can contend in the future.

Now we have no leaders in the locker room, a team who's morale is super low, no winning mentality and we are hanging on to a ping pong's CHANCE that we land a superstar level talent in next year's draft.

What is wrong the idea of having a solid core, team chemistry, winning attitude and picking solid role players in the draft anyway? Why do we have to risk all these just to TRY and land a superstar. What if we don't land this superstar and we end up with mediocre late first round pick talents?

[rutzan]

I have three problems with the news of the last few hours:

1. Danny Ainge is blowing it up, gathering draft picks like crazy, and wants the fans to trust his ability to judge talent andhe is going to build through the draft. But then he goes out and trades UP in this draft to get the guy with possibly the least upside and biggest bust potential in this draft. That's after picking Melo last year, JuJuan Johnson the year before and JR Giddens another year.

2. His vision is to build through the draft but he has handicapped this team over the next two years with contracts like Wallace's, Bass', and Lee's to add to the contracts of Green and Rondo that come to over $20 million a year. He has no cap flexibility while having a bad team that will have to add a couple a players a year for the next three years.

3. Gambling on winning the lottery has screwed this team twice before. The chances of landing that guy are not good. The chances of replicating what OKC has done, is not good. Talent with experience will beat talent with very little experience, almost all the time in the NBA. Even the elitest of talent takes years to develop enough experience to lead a team to a title and many times, its not with the team that drafted them. So there is the very real chance you could lose then before they get good enough to win you a title.

#1 - I've had my run-ins with a fair share of Celtic fans.  90% chance that by Summer League half this forum will be calling Olynyk the next "Dirk Nowitzki" or "Larry Bird".  You know this to be true.  And then mid-season at the deadline when rumors start swirling about Kevin Love wanting out of Minny... you'll see plenty of posters saying, 'NO WAY WOULD I GIVE UP OLYNYK FOR A PLAYER LIKE LOVE... IN TWO YEARS OLYNYK WILL BE BETTER THAN LOVE!!".   Ainge has a good record with draft picks... gotta give him a pass on this one.  Sorry. 

#2 - I don't think it's possible to "handicap" a team financially that is clearly planning on tanking next year and probably again the year after that. Plus, we dumped Terry's salary and Humphries is expiring.  We are LESS financially "handicapped" than we would have been had we kept these guys since KG and Terry would have still been on our books.  Plus, if you have no intention of winning for the next two years, you probably don't want to sign impact players anyways... you want golden top 5 picks.   Cap space is nice, but signing like Smith (who will help you win games... but not enough games) is counterproductive to a proper tank job.  And then in 3 years when this team is really to pounce again, that Wallace contract will be a very valuable expiring piece that we can package with our expendable young assets and land another impact player.   It's a process... a 3-5 year process.  Ainge successfully turned us into a contender in 4 years the last time around.  One final FYI, Humphries has some value at the deadline since he's a big expiring contract that can be packaged with any number of assets... maybe we can take on another terrible 3 year deal for Humphries (that will line up with Wallace) and pick up ANOTHER draft pick out of it.  Flexibility isn't lacking here.

#3 - Gambling on the lotto in 1997 "screwed" this team... i guess...  I mean, Ainge wasn't in charge back then.  And what was our alternative in 1997?... Trade for Shaq?  Sign Michael Jordan?    "Gambling" on the lotto in 2007 netted us a #5 pick that was key to bringing in Ray Allen... which was key to bringing in Kevin Garnett (Theo Ratliff's expiring contract was a huge part of that deal, btw... that's what Wallace could be for us in 3 years).  It's not possible to say that "tanking" failed for Ainge when literally the only time we "tanked" we won a championship the very next year.  There is no possible better outcome than that.  That's a 1 billion % success rate.   

All about perspective.  Your concerns aren't valid.  Ainge is a brilliant GM and this was absolutely the smart move.  It's a long-term vision move.  I've been whining and complaining and wanting this team to tank since we stopped being contenders in 2011.  I had to suffer through two dreadful seasons of also-ran basketball where we had no realistic chance of winning a title... and listen to all these overly optimistic fans tell me about how a 41 win team built around near-retiring former stars could miraculously win a title in a Superstar's league.  It doesn't happen.  Not in the real world, at least.   Thrilled we are finally tanking... thrilled it is happening before the 2014 draft.  If you're going to do it, you might as well do it before the draft that is considered the best in over a decade.  This is definitely the best play.

i would like to know what algorithm you are using to crunch your numbers...

pierce and humphries both expire this year...

kg / 2 years / $24M
wallace / 3 years / $30M

those are facts...not just some numbers pulled out of the air...

Pierce - 1 year 15.5 mil
KG - 2 years 24 mil
Terry - 2 years 10 million

=  50 million


Humphries - 1 year 12 mil
Wallace - 3 years 30 million

= 42 million

After the 2013-14 season, we'd still be on the hook paying KG 12 mil and Terry 5 mil.   That's 17 mil on the books or the 2014-15 season between those two.

After the 2013-14 season, we'll have Wallace on the hook making 10 mil.  That's 10 mil on the books for the 2014-15 season for that player.


I'm right.  This offers us more financial flexibility.

After 2014-15 Season, Wallace becomes an asset as an expiring contract... right around the time we'll be ready to rise like a Phoenix from the ashes.

and just to be fair..if you want to throw in terry...then throw in evans (about $1.7m) which you conveniently left out...and any other nets contracts...