The Case for Running it Back

[Professor of Rondology]

Here I will make the case for why the Celtic’s should not trade away Paul/Kevin (or Rondo/Green) unless the deals are absolute no-brainers.

The argument for blowing it up typically goes as follows: you need at least 1 superduperstar to win a championship. Rondo is not a superduperstar. Therefore, we have no chance at the title and must shift from competing to stockpiling assets (or, in the most extreme version of the argument, tanking). Some people want to gut the roster entirely, sending Rondo and Jeff Green out for younger assets in the hopes of acquiring a superduperstar. This option is not very appealing to me. It is extremely risky. When Danny gutted the roster when he first became GM, he held onto Pierce. If he shipped Pierce out, there’s no way KG and Ray come to town.  And I believe that Rondo has proven himself enough to warrant the same treatment.  “Building around Rondo” doesn’t mean Rondo will be the best player on the team until he retires, it just means that we have an extremely valuable (and cheap!) asset that we should add to.  Rondo is young, cheap, and has a winner’s attitude. Oh, and check out his playoff stats:

Playoffs (per 36)
Rondo 2011-12:
15- 10- 6 ; 2.1 st/bk; 47% FG

Lebron 2012-13:
22- 6- 7; 2.2 st/bk; 49% FG

Pierce 2004-05 (his most recent pre-Big 3 playoffs appearance):
21- 4- 7; 3 st/bk; 50% FG

Playoffs-Rondo is a superduperstar.  Place a talented roster around him and he will have you competing with the best teams in the league come playoff time. Remember 2011-12? We had no depth at all and were crippled by injuries, but Rondo led that team to within minutes of the NBA finals.

For whatever reason, Rondo was in a funk this season. He looked nothing like Playoffs-Rondo. It may have been the new acquisitions, new pressures (it is now unanimously his team, whatever that means), the assist streak, or any number of other factors. The sub-.500 C’s team we saw in 2012-13 is not a reflection of the team’s capabilities. To use a metaphor: we spiffed up our car (adding JT, Sully, getting J8 back), but the engine (Rondo) wasn’t functioning properly. After Rondo went down the team found its identity-- Rajon saw that just like we did, and he will adjust his game accordingly. With modern medicine, and an attitude like Rondo's, I have little doubt that Playoffs-Rondo will be back next May/June.

TL/DR:
Playoffs-Rondo is a stud. 2012-13 Rondo was not a reflection of his true ability.

[Professor of Rondology]

Part 2, in which I argue for holding onto Pierce and KG as well:

I should make it clear that I am 100% on board with shipping KG and PP off for younger players. When I thought the offer was Bledsoe-Jordan-Cap relief for Doc-KG-Pierce I was extremely excited. Unfortunately, none of the actual trade options are very appealing. The offers consist of ‘assets’ not players. Right now we have two players in their primes in Rondo and Jeff Green.  In my mind, we should be competing, not tanking. Maybe we can swap Paul and KG for assets and then swap those assets for a legit player (eg Josh Smith, Millsap, others), but would that team scare playoff opponents as much as the one we have right now (assuming everyone remains healthy)? I think not.

1) Keep Pierce
2) Draft best-player available
3) Use mini-MLE on a backup big man (and for god’s sake give the back-up bigs significant minutes in the beginning of the season regardless of how well they fare at first)
 
Jeff Green must be given starters’ minutes to ease the burden on PP, who I would use as a Point-Forward whenever Rondo is not in the game. This allows AB to guard PGs but remain off the ball on offense, and eliminates our need for a conventional backup PG. And we NEED a center to spell KG. Without that piece, we’re pretty much toast.

It ain’t a superteam like the 08 champs, but it has a good mix of experience and youth and 4 borderline-allstars. How many teams in the league have 4 players that could conceivably make the all-star game next year? That’s a short list.
Everything that we said last summer still applies. Our first round exit was due to the loss of our best player, his only backup, and the only capable big man on the bench.

TL/DR:
Rondo is a stud in his prime, so we should be trying to place the best possible roster around him right now, not looking down the road. The best way to surround Rondo with talent is to keep the talent we have.

[LarBrd33]

Nah.  Rondo's stats this season were the best of his entire career.   How quickly we forget the assist streak.

Maybe had they played him 44 minutes a night in nationally televised games, only had him play against 2011 Philly, Horford-less Atlanta and Miami, he'd put up superstar numbers nightly. 

I'm not a believer in this "playoff rondo = superstar" myth.  He had a few good series, but his per-minute stats that year were about even with his regular season stats.  He just was playing an obscene 44 minutes a night.  All it takes is one whipping in the 1st round without KG and Pierce for the "playoff rondo = superstar" myth to die a gruesome death. 

Running it back is silly.  Acquiring assets isn't really that risky if you know what you are doing as a GM.

Bad GM - Kahn/Jordan
Good GM - Moray/Ainge 

[rondohondo]

we can't even us the mle this year

[Professor of Rondology]

Nah.  Rondo's stats this season were the best of his entire career.   How quickly we forget the assist streak.

Maybe had they played him 44 minutes a night and only had him play against 2011 Philly, Horford-less Atlanta and Miami, he'd put up superstar numbers nightly. 

Running it back is silly.  Acquiring assets isn't really that risky if you know what you are doing as a GM.

Bad GM - Kahn/Jordan
Good GM - Moray/Ainge

Luck always plays a role when acquiring young assets.  And while I agree that AInge and MOrey are shrewd GMs, they have only one title between the two of them.

And Rondo's stats were excellent, but he didn't pass the eye test. I am not alone in thinking that Rondo was not playing up to his abilities this year.

we can't even us the mle this year

Can't we use the taxpayer's MLE?

[Fred Roberts]

I would totally agree if 2014 weren't poised to be a ground shifting draft. Since it is, it makes sense to ensure we are tossing our hat in the mix for the lottery.

I like your point about the new coach actually playing reserve bigs. That would be awesome. 

[Kuberski33]

Is the fan base ready for the Celtics to go 25-57? 

One could make an argument for running the same team back out and seeing what happens.  Last year's team never had a chance to gel before Rondo went down.

The major risk with that is Rondo isn't ready to come back till 2nd half of season...then its more of the same from last year and you have to move Pierce's expiring contract at same time Rondo returns.

[LarBrd33]

Nah.  Rondo's stats this season were the best of his entire career.   How quickly we forget the assist streak.

Maybe had they played him 44 minutes a night and only had him play against 2011 Philly, Horford-less Atlanta and Miami, he'd put up superstar numbers nightly. 

Running it back is silly.  Acquiring assets isn't really that risky if you know what you are doing as a GM.

Bad GM - Kahn/Jordan
Good GM - Moray/Ainge

Luck always plays a role when acquiring young assets.  And while I agree that AInge and MOrey are shrewd GMs, they have only one title between the two of them.

And Rondo's stats were excellent, but he didn't pass the eye test. I am not alone in thinking that Rondo was not playing up to his abilities this year.

we can't even us the mle this year

Can't we use the taxpayer's MLE?

It was Rondo's best statistical regular season.  "Eye test"... eh... dude was in his prime.  This was prior to the ACL injury when Rondo was still an all-star caliber player.   And despite that and a fully healthy squad, Rondo had lead his team to a sub .500 record.   

You run it back for what?... another 41 win season and 1st round beating?  no thanks.  This is assuming Rondo even comes back from his injury next year and is anywhere near the player he was in his prime.

[Professor of Rondology]

Nah.  Rondo's stats this season were the best of his entire career.   How quickly we forget the assist streak.

Maybe had they played him 44 minutes a night and only had him play against 2011 Philly, Horford-less Atlanta and Miami, he'd put up superstar numbers nightly. 

Running it back is silly.  Acquiring assets isn't really that risky if you know what you are doing as a GM.

Bad GM - Kahn/Jordan
Good GM - Moray/Ainge

Luck always plays a role when acquiring young assets.  And while I agree that AInge and MOrey are shrewd GMs, they have only one title between the two of them.

And Rondo's stats were excellent, but he didn't pass the eye test. I am not alone in thinking that Rondo was not playing up to his abilities this year.

we can't even us the mle this year

Can't we use the taxpayer's MLE?

It was Rondo's best statistical regular season.  "Eye test"... eh... dude was in his prime.  This was prior to the ACL injury when Rondo was still an all-star caliber player.   And despite that and a fully healthy squad, Rondo had lead his team to a sub .500 record.   

You run it back for what?... another 41 win season and 1st round beating?  no thanks.  This is assuming Rondo even comes back from his injury next year and is anywhere near the player he was in his prime.

I'm not sure why you think that roster is a lock for a first round exit, since it is SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER than the roster that was up 3-2 against Miami a year ago.

And I suppose I could have been more eloquent but I assumed you would understand what I meant by "eye test." Conventional stats (especially the assist) can be very misleading. Watching games is the only way to truly gauge what a player is bringing to each game. Playoffs-Rondo did not show up this year. If you seriously deny the existence of Playoffs-Rondo, I'm not sure that this conversation will  go anywhere.

[LarBrd33]

I know it's tough guys.  But it's over.  Make peace with your basketball gods. 

Watch this video on repeat and cry it out, gentlemen:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-w6m-nhUcos

So begins our future.  Take the next week to get through them stages of grief and move on with the Giannis Adetokoubo and Fab Melo era.

[rondohondo]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9JArvEJ64M

 

[LarBrd33]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9JArvEJ64M

 

LOL.  Good stuff.

I'm still cracking up imagining Rondo on the Post-KG/Doc/Pierce Tanking Celtics next year sulking in some chair in his hotel room at night... singing this song to himself:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrMp3URM1JI

[Professor of Rondology]

I know it's tough guys.  But it's over.  Make peace with your basketball gods. 

Watch this video on repeat and cry it out, gentlemen:

So begins our future.  Take the next week to get through them stages of grief and move on with the Giannis Adetokoubo and Fab Melo era.

This is an entirely non-emotional argument that I am making. I WANT to move on. I know that this team has very little chance of winning it all. But we have no other decent options. Tanking is not a decent option for a playoff team. We would have to shed a TON of talent (or ask Rondo to take his sweet time coming back) to compete with the bottom dwellers in the league in the lotto.

[Professor of Rondology]

I had more fun watching the tanking Cs in 2007 than I did watching the competitive Cs of the past few years. My nerves can't handle that level of stress.

BUT, the only time I will admit that "it's over" is when I see a viable way to move forward. Everyone seems to assume that tanking for a loaded draft is a good enough option to throw away every speck of talent we have. I completely disagree with that sentiment, especially since 2/3 of the league has the same exact plan (and would have to shed much less talent than we would).

[Celtics18]

Nah.  Rondo's stats this season were the best of his entire career.   How quickly we forget the assist streak.

Maybe had they played him 44 minutes a night in nationally televised games, only had him play against 2011 Philly, Horford-less Atlanta and Miami, he'd put up superstar numbers nightly. 

I'm not a believer in this "playoff rondo = superstar" myth.  He had a few good series, but his per-minute stats that year were about even with his regular season stats.  He just was playing an obscene 44 minutes a night.  All it takes is one whipping in the 1st round without KG and Pierce for the "playoff rondo = superstar" myth to die a gruesome death. 

Running it back is silly.  Acquiring assets isn't really that risky if you know what you are doing as a GM.

Bad GM - Kahn/Jordan
Good GM - Moray/Ainge

"Superstar Playoff Rondo" is not a myth.  The fact that your argument relies on future hypothetical events as opposed to what has actually happened  doesn't lend it much credibility.

Again, Rondo has been a superstar in the playoffs.  That's undeniable. 

You're waiting until he has a playoff series where he's not a superstar to prove your point.  That's funny.