How many years until we make the playoffs again?

[LarBrd33]

Seems clear to me that the Celtics are prepared to start a large rebuilding process.  That doesn't mean "retool on the fly".  If it was about retooling, we would have hung onto Doc.  No, this team is going to put everyone on the block and get as many draft picks, expiring contracts and cap space as possible.  It's Tank City Time.   And I'm all for it...

My question is... how long do you think it will take us to get back to the playoffs?   I know following the downfall of the 80s Celtics, there was a stretch where we made the playoffs once in 8 years. 

Say we draft Wiggins... the Cavs didn't make the playoffs until LeBron's 3rd year.   Made the finals in year 4.   The Thunder didn't make the playoffs until Durant's 3rd year.  They weren't serious contenders until his 5th year.    So theoretically we probably wouldn't make the playoffs again until 2016-17.  Contenders again in 2018-19. 

It's creepy how closely our downfall matches the Pistons.

Pistons won in 2004.  Followed by 4 years of relevance.  And then a terrible .500 season and 1st round exit in 2008-09.

Celtics won in 2008.  Followed by 4 years of relevance.  And then a terrible .500 season and 1st round exit in 2012-13.

Pistons followed that up by 4 straight lotto seasons winning 30 games max.  If we follow their path, Boston will still be a 29 win lotto team in 2016-17. 

But the good news is we have Danny Ainge on our side.  Danny took over a flawed .500 win non-contender... and in just over 4 years he put together a championship caliber team by trading for KG and Ray.   The man knows how to build a team.  He's collecting assets right now... I say within the next 5 years we'll at least be competitive. 

FYI, if we want to hang onto Rondo, he'll be in his early 30s by the time we likely make the playoffs again.  Hopefully he doesn't mind playing for a terrible team for a few years. 

[LooseCannon]

Ainge makes a shocking sign-and-trade deal of Lee, unguaranteed Chinese league dudes, and a draft pick for someone like Paul Millsap and the Celtics make the playoffs next season.

At least, that's what I am rooting for.

[WeMadeIt17]

Celtics will make the playoffs next season.

[LarBrd33]

Ainge makes a shocking sign-and-trade deal of Lee, unguaranteed Chinese league dudes, and a draft pick for someone like Paul Millsap and the Celtics make the playoffs next season.

At least, that's what I am rooting for.

I know some people are pulling for that.  I'm not feeling it.  I'd rather acquire young assets and try to put together building blocks for a contender.  You suffer for 3-5 years and then have a period of glory.   In a way, winning 43 games and getting beat in the first round is worse to me than bottoming out.  It's really easy to get stuck in that loop of mediocrity.  Like the 4 years we spent as a playoff team in the early 2000s.  That team wasn't going to win a title.  Danny was smart enough to see that, dump Walker and let this squad bottom out. 

I'm guessing that's what he'll do here.  Dump everyone... maybe hang onto Rondo until the offer is right.

It's not like you're going to add Millisap and contend.  You might be good enough to miss out on a lotto pick, but you're not going to win anything substantial.  Those 4 years of crappy Jim O'Brien basketball weren't a lot of fun to me.  It was ugly basketball from a flawed team with no hope of legitimately contending. 

[LarBrd33]

Celtics will make the playoffs next season.

That would be a nightmare.

[Evantime34]

I think if we can get a good enough haul KG and Pierce then we could sneak in the playoffs next year. IF not I think we use our 2014 pick and space to trade for a good player that added to our core will put us back in the playoffs

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Assuming KG, Paul and Rondo is still the core, none, provided they are healthy (and acquire Gortat for Bradley and whatever).

They'll be in the Playoffs, as a 4th seed.

[LarBrd33]

I think if we can get a good enough haul KG and Pierce then we could sneak in the playoffs next year. IF not I think we use our 2014 pick and space to trade for a good player that added to our core will put us back in the playoffs

A "good haul" for KG and Pierce would equal raw prospects, draft picks and cap space.  You don't sneak into the playoffs with that... that's counterproductive to the vision of Ainge. 

[LarBrd33]

Assuming KG, Paul and Rondo is still the core, none, provided they are healthy (and acquire Gortat for Bradley and whatever).

They'll be in the Playoffs, as a 4th seed.

If KG, Paul and Rondo had any chance of being our core next season... Doc wouldn't be coaching the Clips.

I give the odds of us seeing KG, Paul and Rondo playing here next season at 0.1%.  Not happening.  It's tank time, baby!

[Celtics18]

Ainge makes a shocking sign-and-trade deal of Lee, unguaranteed Chinese league dudes, and a draft pick for someone like Paul Millsap and the Celtics make the playoffs next season.

At least, that's what I am rooting for.

I know some people are pulling for that.  I'm not feeling it.  I'd rather acquire young assets and try to put together building blocks for a contender.  You suffer for 3-5 years and then have a period of glory.   In a way, winning 43 games and getting beat in the first round is worse to me than bottoming out. It's really easy to get stuck in that loop of mediocrity.  Like the 4 years we spent as a playoff team in the early 2000s.  That team wasn't going to win a title.  Danny was smart enough to see that, dump Walker and let this squad bottom out. 

I'm guessing that's what he'll do here.  Dump everyone... maybe hang onto Rondo until the offer is right.

It's not like you're going to add Millisap and contend.  You might be good enough to miss out on a lotto pick, but you're not going to win anything substantial.  Those 4 years of crappy Jim O'Brien basketball weren't a lot of fun to me.  It was ugly basketball from a flawed team with no hope of legitimately contending.

It's just as easy, probably easier, to get stuck in a "loop of terribleness."  Given the choice between terrible and mediocre, I choose mediocre, with good to great, of course, always being the ultimate goal. 

[eugen]

Seems clear to me that the Celtics are prepared to start a large rebuilding process.  That doesn't mean "retool on the fly".  If it was about retooling, we would have hung onto Doc.  No, this team is going to put everyone on the block and get as many draft picks, expiring contracts and cap space as possible.  It's Tank City Time.   And I'm all for it...

My question is... how long do you think it will take us to get back to the playoffs?   I know following the downfall of the 80s Celtics, there was a stretch where we made the playoffs once in 8 years. 

Say we draft Wiggins... the Cavs didn't make the playoffs until LeBron's 3rd year.   Made the finals in year 4.   The Thunder didn't make the playoffs until Durant's 3rd year.  They weren't serious contenders until his 5th year.    So theoretically we probably wouldn't make the playoffs again until 2016-17.  Contenders again in 2018-19. 

It's creepy how closely our downfall matches the Pistons.

Pistons won in 2004.  Followed by 4 years of relevance.  And then a terrible .500 season and 1st round exit in 2008-09.

Celtics won in 2008.  Followed by 4 years of relevance.  And then a terrible .500 season and 1st round exit in 2012-13.

Pistons followed that up by 4 straight lotto seasons winning 30 games max.  If we follow their path, Boston will still be a 29 win lotto team in 2016-17. 

But the good news is we have Danny Ainge on our side.  Danny took over a flawed .500 win non-contender... and in just over 4 years he put together a championship caliber team by trading for KG and Ray.   The man knows how to build a team.  He's collecting assets right now... I say within the next 5 years we'll at least be competitive. 

FYI, if we want to hang onto Rondo, he'll be in his early 30s by the time we likely make the playoffs again.  Hopefully he doesn't mind playing for a terrible team for a few years.

How many years without playoff? Hard to say. Without Doc is hard, but without KG+PP, Cs will fight at the borrom part os EAST together Pistons, Raptors, Bobcats, Wizards. Kepping PP+KG will help Cs to keep palyoff status for 1-2 seasons. Ohterways the new team coming out after rebuilding need 3-4 years to get up. I think if Cs will not have KG+PP, the ownership has to find a new GM, in order to rebulit. Does not have sense to make a new rebuilt with GM.

[LarBrd33]

Ainge makes a shocking sign-and-trade deal of Lee, unguaranteed Chinese league dudes, and a draft pick for someone like Paul Millsap and the Celtics make the playoffs next season.

At least, that's what I am rooting for.

I know some people are pulling for that.  I'm not feeling it.  I'd rather acquire young assets and try to put together building blocks for a contender.  You suffer for 3-5 years and then have a period of glory.   In a way, winning 43 games and getting beat in the first round is worse to me than bottoming out. It's really easy to get stuck in that loop of mediocrity.  Like the 4 years we spent as a playoff team in the early 2000s.  That team wasn't going to win a title.  Danny was smart enough to see that, dump Walker and let this squad bottom out. 

I'm guessing that's what he'll do here.  Dump everyone... maybe hang onto Rondo until the offer is right.

It's not like you're going to add Millisap and contend.  You might be good enough to miss out on a lotto pick, but you're not going to win anything substantial.  Those 4 years of crappy Jim O'Brien basketball weren't a lot of fun to me.  It was ugly basketball from a flawed team with no hope of legitimately contending.

It's just as easy, probably easier, to get stuck in a "loop of terribleness."  Given the choice between terrible and mediocre, I choose mediocre, with good to great, of course, always being the ultimate goal.

When you're terrible you acquire assets.  As bad as the Pistons are, they have two players on that team with a boatload of trade value (Monroe and Drummond)... and they could either cash them in or hang onto them and hope that the pieces finally fall into place.

When you're mediocre... you usually just stay mediocre.

Also... give Ainge credit.  The dude is good at spotting talent. 

[BballTim]

Celtics will make the playoffs next season.

That would be a nightmare.

  Certainly not compared to your plan. I think there's a pretty good chance we make the playoffs this year as well.

  All your plans seem to include "let's just get bad and get Wiggins". That's kind of like saying "let's just clear some cap space and sign a franchise player". There's no need to rush into the plan of last resort and not much benefit from rushing into it either.

[LarBrd33]

Ainge makes a shocking sign-and-trade deal of Lee, unguaranteed Chinese league dudes, and a draft pick for someone like Paul Millsap and the Celtics make the playoffs next season.

At least, that's what I am rooting for.

I know some people are pulling for that.  I'm not feeling it.  I'd rather acquire young assets and try to put together building blocks for a contender.  You suffer for 3-5 years and then have a period of glory.   In a way, winning 43 games and getting beat in the first round is worse to me than bottoming out. It's really easy to get stuck in that loop of mediocrity.  Like the 4 years we spent as a playoff team in the early 2000s.  That team wasn't going to win a title.  Danny was smart enough to see that, dump Walker and let this squad bottom out. 

I'm guessing that's what he'll do here.  Dump everyone... maybe hang onto Rondo until the offer is right.

It's not like you're going to add Millisap and contend.  You might be good enough to miss out on a lotto pick, but you're not going to win anything substantial.  Those 4 years of crappy Jim O'Brien basketball weren't a lot of fun to me.  It was ugly basketball from a flawed team with no hope of legitimately contending.

It's just as easy, probably easier, to get stuck in a "loop of terribleness."  Given the choice between terrible and mediocre, I choose mediocre, with good to great, of course, always being the ultimate goal.

When you're terrible you acquire assets.  As bad as the Pistons are, they have two players on that team with a boatload of trade value (Monroe and Drummond)... and they could either cash them in or hang onto them and hope that the pieces finally fall into place.

When you're mediocre... you usually just stay mediocre.

Also... give Ainge credit.  The dude is good at spotting talent.

Also... let's be straight up on the Pistons here.  During their rebuild years, they have actually made good use of all their top 10 picks.

Greg Monroe #7 in 2010
Brandon Knight #8 in 2011
Andre Drummond #9 in 2012

In 2009 they didn't have a top 10 pick.  None of the guys above are even top 5 picks and yet they all have trade value.  This year they'll be adding #8 pick as well.  It's building blocks.  That's how you rebuild.

[LooseCannon]

Ainge makes a shocking sign-and-trade deal of Lee, unguaranteed Chinese league dudes, and a draft pick for someone like Paul Millsap and the Celtics make the playoffs next season.

At least, that's what I am rooting for.

I know some people are pulling for that.  I'm not feeling it.  I'd rather acquire young assets and try to put together building blocks for a contender.  You suffer for 3-5 years and then have a period of glory.   In a way, winning 43 games and getting beat in the first round is worse to me than bottoming out.  It's really easy to get stuck in that loop of mediocrity.  Like the 4 years we spent as a playoff team in the early 2000s.  That team wasn't going to win a title.  Danny was smart enough to see that, dump Walker and let this squad bottom out. 

I don't think Ainge would get stuck like that.  I think there is enough there that the Celtics should go on a path of trying to improve the team between now and the summer of 2014, without spending too much in the way of assets and picks, and then you blow it up if things don't appear to be working.

I'm okay with eventually coming to a decision to blow things up, but I am not okay with trying to force the team to bottom out in time for the highly vaunted draft of 2014.