Prepare to watch some sloppy basketball, and start rooting for losses and ping pong balls.
The glory days have returned.
You know man... honestly it's going to sting at first. But at least we're heading in a direction. I hated the feeling of being a sitting duck franchise and I've had that feeling since Shaq went down... this feeling like we we had ankle weights on and were slowly sinking to the bottom of the sea with no floaty to save us. Our window opened and closed... we'd absolutely be better next season if we kept KG, Doc and Pierce... but it's not going to result in a title. So we might as well bottom out so we can jump off ocean floor and start swimming back up to the surface.
Bottoming out was inevitable. However, I'm a big believer that when a championship is at least within striking distance, you owe it to your plans and fan base to maximize that opportunity.
Sure, our odds of winning a title were slim, and were probably reliant on a Lebron injury. However, I would still take those odds over the chances of our rebuilding efforts yielding a title contender within the next 5 years or so.
I agree completely with your logic but disagree about our chances with the current team. We would have needed not only a Lebron injury but:
(a) A return to form for Rondo
(b) A relatively healthy KG come playoff time
(c) Sully to be productive after his injury
(d) Pierce to be healthy
(e) one of Terry/Lee to have a very good year
(f) to sign a quality 10-15 mpg big guy
(g) Jeff Green to continue his good play
Now, even if all that happens we might have what, a 10% chance?
But here's the thing. Even if each of the above events has an 60% chance of happening, if they are independent events there is a a 3% chance that they ALL happen.
And combined with the 10% chance we have to win even with a healthy, high-performing squad, that gives us a 0.3% chance.
I'm not saying I have any basis for these numbers per se, but I'm using them to illustrate what is a very general point: once you recognize how many things have to go right for us to win it, the chances are very close to zero because you are betting on many, many things going right rather than one or two.
This has been our downfall in the Big Three era generally: we've had fragile teams. And while people will say "oh only that one thing went wrong that kept us from winning," like KG's knee or Shaq's achilles, there were in fact 10 things every year that had a chance of going wrong, and all together it was *very* likely that one or more of them would go wrong. That's the way it is when you have three stars (and other starters like Shaq , JO, Sheed, etc.) who are older and prone to injury.
Those issues would now have been magnified because two of our key young guys - Rondo and Sully - are coming back from serious injuries themselves.
Anyway, that's just my perspective. I think it was time to get any assets we could. Just getting a high lottery pick in 2014 is not enough. We need as many mid-level pieces as we can get, because those can be packaged too. I personally think that in Feb 2015 Jordan could be a valuable trade chip for a contender, as a big body on an expiring contract. And who knows - if he puts it together could he be as valuable as Al Jefferson was? Small chance, but maybe.
I also think that if we are not contending, Rondo may delay his return. This helps us to tank.
Ultimately luck will have a lot to do with it even in this scenario, of course. But I think we have improved our chances of winning a ring over the next 10+ years.
Topic: What do the Nooby fans do now? (Read 8697 times)