Nerlens Noel will be the biggest question mark Top 2 pick since Stromile Swift. He's a freak athlete, for sure, but he has zero offensive game. He's rail thin, and isn't a true 7 footer. To top it off, he's coming off knee surgery. What's the difference between him and the many beanpole jumping jacks with no offense that have come into and out of the league the past decade?
He's got an awesome work ethic, was a dominating presence in the post defensively, and his coaches love him, and he loves basketball.
He was a very good shot blocker and rim protector as a frosh. He did get bullied in the post by burlier players at both ends. All the other unskilled jumping jacks loved basketball too. Is he all that different than McGee and DeAndre Jordan, who are taller and jump higher? Noel might be a better athlete, but will he develop any offense?
Don't get me wrong. I've been impressed with Noel's athleticism since he exploded on the local scene a few years ago. I have yet to see a highlight where he makes an actual shot. It's all dunking and shot blocking. I can't help but think Sean Williams with a bit more height and a lot better attitude. I hope I'm wrong and he will develop some offense.
The one bad thing about today's NBA is that young bigs who are one and done don't get to develop offense in college. Imagine if Ewing left Georgetown after his freshman year. Would he ever have developed into one of the best shooting big men of all time? Probably not.
Well, lets take a closer look at that athleticism. He's super quick, and also has great top-end speed as a big guy, he's a quick leaper. THat means he's great in transition, a great asset to have in your center, and he's more than capable of putting it on the floor (for a big), with a powerful and quick first step. Plus, that pterodactyl wingspan.
THat means as a defender not only is he a elite rim protector, he's an elite help-defender, able to cover ground very quickly. That puts his ceiling well above Deandre Jordan's as a defender.
He's also got a great motor, and commitment on the defensive end. That gives him an edge on both Williams (the prospect, obviously sean williams the actual player is a distant thought) and McGee as defenders.
Offensively he is quite limited. He's a good passer for a center, he's a good driver as a center as well, but his lack of a short and midrange jumper are significant hindrances, as well as his lack of overall post skill.
But all that said, he's also only 18 years old, with a great work ethic and willingness to be coached.
Maybe you're right, and he never pans out, but I don't think comparing him only to busts is really accurate. When Tyson Chandler came into the league, he was too skinny, without a post game, and without an overall offensive game. He's now a DPOY and one of the few legitimate max-contract one-way defensive players, due mostly to his elite skills as a defensive anchor and attitude.