There is no chance that Atlanta would trade Horford and Teague for Rondo and a 2nd. None at all. I mean seriously which team would you rather have
Rondo, Williams, Smith, Gigantic ?, Howard
or
Teague, Williams, Smith, Horford, Howard
Clear no brainer, you take the second team and don't give it a second thought. I don't even know if Atlanta would trade Horford straight up for Rondo, never the less add in Teague on top of it.
I think the idea behind Atlanta being willing to give up Teague and Smith is that Smith's resigning is contingent on bringing in his best friend Rondo or that Smith is willing to resign at below his market value because he wants to play with Rondo.
Rondo brings in extra value given his relationship with Smith and in making the team significantly more appealing to FA's by having 2 "stars" (Smith hasn't been an all-star yet).
Atlanta doesn't have the leverage here since Smith could walk as a free agent and they are really only getting anything back for him if Smith is interested in a sign and trade or if they convince him to come back. The Celtics on the other hand have all the leverage since they have no real pressing need to move Rondo given his contract and the state of our team.
Atlanta can re-sign Smith if they want. They haven't wanted to pay him a full max contract, but they could easily re-sign him and Smith would go back there for a full max. Smith isn't taking a discount just to play with Rondo. He is going to sign for whomever shows him the money.
Thats exactly my point. Atlanta could resign him if they want to give him a full max contract, but obviously they don't or they wouldn't be shopping him so hard.
I don't think they want to bring Smith back at the max, but if he were willing to take a discount to play with Rondo then they are 2/3 of the way to their own big 3.
I think its entirely possible Smith would take a pay cut to play with Rondo and vice versa. No contending team is going to want to hand over max money to Josh Smith so he can either go elsewhere for max money or he can resign a still very lucrative contract but below market value and play with Rondo.
I think Atlanta only does the deal if Smith resigns at lower than the max, but that doesn't seem too far fetched for me after seeing everyone take a pay cut to go to Miami.
Smith is also buddies with Dwight Howard though and Dwight is the better player and much more likely to lead to a title. So in your hypothetical, why wouldn't Smith be just as willing to take a pay cut to play with Dwight. Thus there is no reason for Atlanta to diminish its roster for something it would already have. Horford + Teague is better than Rondo.
Atlanta just has no desire to pay Smith max money and frankly they shouldn't. And Smith just does not seem like the kind of guy that is going to give a big discount to stay in Atlanta no matter who his teammates are. It just isn't a trade Atlanta will make, especially with Rondo coming off an injury. Horford's 17/10 plus Teague's 15/7 is just more valuable than Rondo's 11/12.
I have to strongly disagree with you about Howard being a much better player than Rondo and more likely to lead a team to the title. I think his reputation has taken a huge step back after the Laker's debacle of a season.
I'm not saying Smith wouldn't take a pay cut to play with Dwight, nor am I saying that Smith would take a pay cut to play with Rondo.
What I'm saying is that IF Smith was so inclined because his relationship with Rondo is so strong (I know nothing about him a Dwight's) THEN Atlanta might consider the Horford and Teague for Rondo swap.
Rondo for Horford and Teague isn't fair value for Atlanta, but if bringing in Rondo is the way they can get Smith to stay for good money then they probably strongly consider it, especially if that means Howard could join up too.
Previously you said you would prefer a lineup of:
Teague, Williams, Smith, Horford and Howard
And I completely agree. But if Smith chooses to walk and Atlanta doesn't get anything in return their lineup is:
Teague, Williams, gigantic ?, Horford and Howard.
If thats the case then why wouldn't Atlanta consider:
Rondo, Williams, Smith, gigantic ? and Howard
I choose the latter despite the horrendous FT%s that would result.