If you were Ainge, would you keep it together or blow it up? (Poll)

[Celtics18]

Keep it together and reignite Rondo trades as soon as he's marketable again, which is precisely what I think Ainge and Wyc are going to do - unless Pierce and Garnett retire.

I have no interest in paying an offensively-challenged ambivalent defender anything close to the money he'll seek in his next deal. Now is the time to move Rondo.

Who would you like to get back for him? 

[Who]

I don't see much added value in blowing it up this summer versus mid-season unless you are willing to dump Rondo as well as Pierce and Garnett and I don't really want to do that. Lose Rondo I mean.

More ping pong balls helps, doesn't it? The idea is to be in the running for a top pick. If we play .500 ball up to the deadline it would be totally fruitless to blow it up.

Here are the odds for getting the #1 pick

1    250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2   199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3    156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4    119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5    88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6    63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7    43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8    28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9    17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10    11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11   8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12    7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13    6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14    5 combinations, 0.5% chance

Less than a 1 in 10 chance if you do not finish with one of the four worst records in the league.Only a 1 in 33 chance if you finish with the 8th worst record in the league falling to 1 in a 100 if you have the 10th worst.

The odds are terrible.

If you stretch it out to getting into the top three, the 6th worst team has a one in five chance at a top 3 pick (80% chance of not getting a top three pick) while the 7th worst team has a one in six chance (~85% chance of not getting top 3 pick) and the 8th worst team falls to one in ten (90% chance of not getting top 3 pick). And so on and so on. 

Those are just awful percentages. 

The Celtics need to finish near the absolute bottom of the league to have a good chance at one of the top five picks and to do that they will need to blow up their roster beyond just Garnett and Pierce. If that is the plan, I can get behind it but I have little to no interest in halfway measures that see Boston in that 8th-12th zone.

That's exactly my point, though. Why would you keep it together until the deadline if you are using that logic? Blow it all the way up this offseason to ensure we stink.

So you want to trade Rondo as well as KG/Pierce?

[LooseCannon]

The Celtics need to finish near the absolute bottom of the league to have a good chance at one of the top five picks and to do that they will need to blow up their roster beyond just Garnett and Pierce. If that is the plan, I can get behind it but I have little to no interest in halfway measures that see Boston in that 8th-12th zone.

Unless the Celtics are wrecked by injury and/or a bad locker room situation, I would guess that Boston would have to spend a season in that 8th-12th zone on the way to the bottom.  It's a problem if you get stuck in that zone for several years, but I don't think it is wrong to expect a season or two in that area on the way up or the way down.

[Moranis]

I suppose I am in the "keep it together" category.

I don't see much added value in blowing it up this summer versus mid-season unless you are willing to dump Rondo as well as Pierce and Garnett and I don't really want to do that. Lose Rondo I mean.

We'll win too many games with Rondo here to have realistic expectations of a top five pick. Rondo has to go too (along with Pierce and KG) if Ainge blows it up.

I would be searching hard for an additional star. A low level type star. Someone like Josh Smith or Paul Millsap. To go along with Garnett, Rondo and one of Pierce/Green. A big four type setup with strong role players like Sullinger and Bradley.

the c's were 6 games under 500 with a healthy roster with Rondo this year, what makes you think the c's are going to be to good to be in the high lottery if there is no KG or PP?

Plus we all know regular season rondo is not the same as playoff Rondo.

Try to trade Lee, Terry and Bass for expirings or trade exceptions .

Keeping the team together to get booted early in the playoffs makes no sense, especially when there are franchise players in the 2014 draft .

Worst case scenario is c's get a top 5-10 pick . They now have a trade chip to bring in another legit player to add to rondo and green, or maybe they even trade the pick along with rondo or green to get a superstar or all-star .

Either drafting a stud young guy , or using the pick to make a big trade are better options than staying with a team that will only continue to get worse .

PG: Rondo, Terry
SG: Bradley, Lee
SF: Green, FA
PF: Sullinger, Bass
C:  FA, FA

If Danny sign some capable free agents, that could easily be a 35-40 win squad. If Danny sign barely adequate free agents, that should win 30-33 games. If Danny goes out of his way to sign absolute and utter garbage that hurt the team and make it worse, approx 25 wins.

There is a pretty decent talent base there even without KG and Pierce. And if you take anything back in KG + Pierce trades, like DeAndre Jordan, that will only make it more difficult to lose enough games to get a top five pick. Imagine that lineup with DeAndre Jordan and a solid backup behind him. That is a .500 team.

Like I said, there is a pretty good talent base there. It would take a pretty big blow-up job beyond Pierce and Garnett to get that team down near the bottom of the league.

It would still have a star player in Rondo. Two good young talents in Bradley and Sullinger. A solid starter in Jeff Green. A very good backup to adequate starter in Courtney Lee. A very good backup PF in Bass. Plus, Jason Terry. There is some talent there. The squad would need to be pared down further (beyond just KG, Pierce) to get to the bottom of the league.

I don't think that is a 35-40 win team.  That teams seems a lot worse than the Bucks were this year.  No real scoring.  No rebounding.  Very inconsistent players.  I'd see that team as a 30 win team max and that is with a healthy Rondo and Sullinger.

[Moranis]

Keep it together and reignite Rondo trades as soon as he's marketable again, which is precisely what I think Ainge and Wyc are going to do - unless Pierce and Garnett retire.

I have no interest in paying an offensively-challenged ambivalent defender anything close to the money he'll seek in his next deal. Now is the time to move Rondo.

Who would you like to get back for him?

I personally would think something like Rondo + Green for Gordan, Thomas, Walker, Denver 1st, Portland 1st would be the type of trade I would be looking at.  You get a nice young player in Kemba Walker plus two picks that could be very high picks at some point.

[bobbyv]

Keep it together and reignite Rondo trades as soon as he's marketable again, which is precisely what I think Ainge and Wyc are going to do - unless Pierce and Garnett retire.

I have no interest in paying an offensively-challenged ambivalent defender anything close to the money he'll seek in his next deal. Now is the time to move Rondo.

Who would you like to get back for him?

I personally would think something like Rondo + Green for Gordan, Thomas, Walker, Denver 1st, Portland 1st would be the type of trade I would be looking at.  You get a nice young player in Kemba Walker plus two picks that could be very high picks at some point.

So in other words, we become a slightly better version of the bobcats? You do realize one bad draft pick and we end up like them for a good number of years.

[JSD]

15 to 15, incredible.

[The Rondo Show]

Keep Rondo, Sully, Green, and Avery and get picks and expirings for everybody else. Build a contending team in 2014

[JSD]

And blow it up takes the lead for the first time 16 to 15. I'm amazed at how close this is. I thought blow it up would dominate this time.

[CelticConcourse]

16-16, wow this is close.

I want one more year.

[csfansince60s]

Until I heard about KG's possible double ankle surgery for bone spurs and the Dickerson tweet on PP, I felt differently.

As the President often says in response to a crisis and his possible courses of action: "All options are on the table."

If PP and KG are gone, you gotta explore trading anyone and everyone.

[manl_lui]

keep it together...beside winning, you need something to keep the fans attached...

KG and PP are the reasons why Celtics pride came back, and in my opinion that is very important

KG to us is what Kobe and Tim Duncan are to their team respectively

[Timdawgg]

I just don't think you can actually blow it up.  There is too much decent talent that will win you too many games.  The only way way would be trading assets for pennies on the dollar.  That would not make any sense at all.  That is why the keep it together and blow up votes are about the same.  I would want to blow it up but since I know we could not blow it up enough to give us a decent chance I voted to keep it together.  It is just too unlikely to come away with anything great.  I think you have to just try and slowly acquire more assets on the fly.  The draft is too much of a longshot.

[Galeto]

If I could temporarily take over Ainge's body, I would immediately have him resign. From Mark Blunt who he resigned to Rasheed, Big Baby and Bass, it's comical how many bad rebounders he collects.  I have little faith in him.

[JSD]

24 to 22 Blow it up leading.