Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up

[celticben]

"Woeful for Wiggins" should be Danny's motto for next year.

Did you make that up? TP

Yes.

"Suck for Luck" was my inspiration.

I am sure there will be plenty of teams racing to the bottom next season. Wiggins is a beast.

Yep.

Which is why tanking for the #1 pick is such a crap shoot.

Lots of other talent will be available in the Lottery.

Who is to say Rondo won't be ready to come back until Christmas? Dump KG & PP for picks & young talent and hope for the best.

Danny's best play is to start collecting assets to trade for a star or two like he did when he brought in Allen & KG.

[Celtics18]

Unless we trade Rondo, Green, Bradley, and Sully, we will be in no position to get wiggins.

I do think we should blow the rest of the team up though

Trade Green and Rondo then.

Try to get expiring contracts and draft picks for them (higher the better)

Build around cap space, youth and draft picks (top 5 picks... not late lotto picks).

See my post here for my full realistic blueprint on building a dynasty:  http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=64634.msg1463478#msg1463478

  You seem to have found a realistic way to get to the bottom, that's the easy part. If that's all it took to build a dynasty then the Clips and the Kings and the Wizards would be perennial contenders.

I'm not a short-sighted fan.  You don't build a contender by perpetually making the playoffs with the 7th or 8th seed.


Fact:  Drafting in the Top 5 gives you by far a better opportunity to land a franchise player.   Regardless of what happens next season, if KG retires... this team is going to miss the playoffs.   The thing is, we might be a late lotto team if we hang onto Rondo and Green.  Yes, you can luck into allstars picking in the late lotto... but if you want a franchise player, you're gon need to be picking in the top 5.

List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

... Are you seeing a pattern here???

Slapping together a mediocre team is fine and all, but it just prolongs your suffering.  If you properly tanked to the league's worst record, your worst case scenario is pick #4.   Yes, this doesn't assure you of drafting a franchise player, but it puts you in a DRAMATICALLY better position of doing so. 

Yes, it's possible to draft a bust in the top 5.  It's more likely you draft a bust in the late lotto, though.  Top 5 picks are gold.  They are your one and only shot at a superstar.  2014 draft has 1 bonified superstar in Wiggins and a couple others who may reach that level as well.  You don't get this opportunity very often... and while drafting 6-30 theoretically gives you a shot at an all-star as well (see Rondo, Rajon), it's far FAR more unlikely.

How did you determine that list?

[CelticConcourse]

List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

Wait, so you're saying it's better to draft earlier than later? 

Damian Lillard - #6 pick
Paul George - #10 pick
Stephen Curry - #7 pick
Jrue Holiday - #17 pick
Eric Gordon - #7 pick
Brook Lopez - #10 pick
Roy Hibbert - #17 pick
Serge Ibaka - #24 pick
Joakim Noah - #9 pick
Marc Gasol - #48 pick
Brandon Roy - #6 pick
Rajon Rondo - #21 pick
Andrew Bynum - #10 pick
David Lee - #30 pick
Amar'e Stoudemire - #9 pick
Joe Johnson - #10 pick
Zach Randolph - #19 pick
Tony Parker - #28 pick
Gilbert Arenas - #30 pick
Dirk Nowitzki - #9 pick
Paul Pierce - #10 pick
Tracy McGrady - #9 pick
Kobe Bryant - #13 pick
Peja Stojakovic - #14 pick
Steve Nash - #15 pick
Jermaine O'Neal - #17 pick
Latrell Sprewell - #24 pick
Tim Hardaway - #14 pick
Shawn Kemp - #17 pick
Rod Strickland - #19 pick
Kevin Johnson - #7 pick
Reggie Miller - #11 pick
Chris Mullin - #7 pick
John Stockton - #16 pick
Dale Ellis - #9 pick
Clyde Drexler - #14 pick
Larry Bird - #6 pick
Bernard King - #7 pick
Adrian Dantley - #6 pick
Robert Parish - #8 pick
Alex English - #23 pick
Dennis Johnson - #29 pick
Jamaal Wilkes - #11 pick
George Gervin - #40 pick
Julius Erving - #12 pick
Artis Gilmore - #117 pick
Calvin Murphy - #18 pick
Nate Archibald - #19 pick
Dan Issel - #122 pick
Jo Jo White - #9 pick
Mel Daniels - #9 pick
Willis Reed - #8 pick
Gus Johnson - #10 pick
John Havlicek - #7 pick
Chet Walker - #12 pick
Lenny Wilkens - #9 pick
Hal Greer - #13 pick
Sam Jones - #8 pick
K.C. Jones - #13 pick
Jack Twyman - #8 pick
Bill Sharman - #16 pick
Bobby Wazner - #10 pick

[Celtics4ever]

For all these guys there is a Sam Bowie too though picked at number 2 ahead of Jordan or a Darko.  What about Greg Oden,
Michael Olowokandi and Kwame Brown all number ones?

Draft is hit or miss but usually best to pick higher than later.

[nickagneta]

If the draft is so loaded and All-Star caliber youngsters are going to be available well into non-lottery land, why should we blow it up?

This franchise has purposely tanked twice and missed out on the very best player in two drafts. Tanking is no guarantee of a top three pick. It can actually make you worse for years and years as you tank to be bad but never get the real prize.

I say, go for one more run with KG, Rondo and company but move pieces around for better cap flexibility. Conserve Pierce and KG during the regular season and if that means a worse record but still making the playoffs healthy, that's even better as picking in the 16-22 area next year will yield a very high quality player.

[nickagneta]

List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

... Are you seeing a pattern here???

Rajon Rondo. Pick #22
Tony Parker. Pick #28
Brook Lopez. Pick #10
Kobe Bryant. Pick #13
Paul Pierce. Pick #10
Dirk Nowitzki. Pick #9
Paul George Pick #10
Josh Smith. Pick #17
David Lee. Pick #30.
Jrue Holiday. Pick #17
JR Smith. Pick #18
Marc Gasol. Pick #18
Zach Randolph. Pick #19
Manu Ginobilli. Pick #28

I could go on and on.

Yeah? I am not seeing a pattern.

[Smutzy#9]

nothing will be decided until Pierce and KG make a  decision. Thats the bottom line. Once they make a decision then we can discuss what to do.

[Yogi]

Ok lets tank. 
1. Maybe we'll get lucky and draft the next Blake Griffin. 
2. Maybe we also get some talent like Eric Bledsoe and DeAndre Jordan. 
3. Well it is a fantasy let's say we get super lucky and sign the best point guard, top 3 player and great leader Chris Paul in free agency.
4. Let's say we surround them with some nice veteran pieces like Chauncey Billups, Grant Hill and Lamar Odom. 
5. Heck let's add a sixth man of the year candidate in Jamal Crawford. 
After a few years of misery and a whole lot of great luck where do we wind up?  A first round exit you say?  isn't that where we are now?

[ejk3489]

Unless we trade Rondo, Green, Bradley, and Sully, we will be in no position to get wiggins.

I do think we should blow the rest of the team up though

Trade Green and Rondo then.

Try to get expiring contracts and draft picks for them (higher the better)

Build around cap space, youth and draft picks (top 5 picks... not late lotto picks).

See my post here for my full realistic blueprint on building a dynasty:  http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=64634.msg1463478#msg1463478

  You seem to have found a realistic way to get to the bottom, that's the easy part. If that's all it took to build a dynasty then the Clips and the Kings and the Wizards would be perennial contenders.

I'm not a short-sighted fan.  You don't build a contender by perpetually making the playoffs with the 7th or 8th seed.


Fact:  Drafting in the Top 5 gives you by far a better opportunity to land a franchise player.   Regardless of what happens next season, if KG retires... this team is going to miss the playoffs.   The thing is, we might be a late lotto team if we hang onto Rondo and Green.  Yes, you can luck into allstars picking in the late lotto... but if you want a franchise player, you're gon need to be picking in the top 5.

List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

... Are you seeing a pattern here???

Slapping together a mediocre team is fine and all, but it just prolongs your suffering.  If you properly tanked to the league's worst record, your worst case scenario is pick #4.   Yes, this doesn't assure you of drafting a franchise player, but it puts you in a DRAMATICALLY better position of doing so. 

Yes, it's possible to draft a bust in the top 5.  It's more likely you draft a bust in the late lotto, though.  Top 5 picks are gold.  They are your one and only shot at a superstar.  2014 draft has 1 bonified superstar in Wiggins and a couple others who may reach that level as well.  You don't get this opportunity very often... and while drafting 6-30 theoretically gives you a shot at an all-star as well (see Rondo, Rajon), it's far FAR more unlikely.

I see you've conveniently left out the names of the most productive players in the league this year that weren't drafted in the top 5:

Andre Iguodala (9)
Joakim Noah (9)
Brook Lopez (10)
Paul George (10)
Joe Johnson (10)
Josh Smith (17)
Roy Hibbert (17)
Jrue Holliday (17)
JR Smith (18)
David West (18)
Zach Randolph (19)
Tony Parker (28)
David Lee (30)
Marc Gasol (48)

No, not all of these players are what you would consider "superstars", but they're certainly not scrubs either. Tony Parker was a legit top 5 MVP candidate this season on a 58 win team. Gasol just won DPOY, and anchored one of the best defensive teams in the league. JR Smith won Sixth Man of the Year. Noah, George, Holiday, Lopez, Noah, Lee, Parker, and Randolph were All-Stars this year, and aside from Holliday, all are (or were) starters on a playoff team.


(Edit: oops, guess I'm a few posts too late on this)

[BballTim]

Ok lets tank. 
1. Maybe we'll get lucky and draft the next Blake Griffin. 
2. Maybe we also get some talent like Eric Bledsoe and DeAndre Jordan. 
3. Well it is a fantasy let's say we get super lucky and sign the best point guard, top 3 player and great leader Chris Paul in free agency.
4. Let's say we surround them with some nice veteran pieces like Chauncey Billups, Grant Hill and Lamar Odom. 
5. Heck let's add a sixth man of the year candidate in Jamal Crawford. 
After a few years of misery and a whole lot of great luck where do we wind up?  A first round exit you say?  isn't that where we are now?

  That's what people don't get. Or you tank and get a couple of all-star level players (say PP and Antione) that make you too good to get high draft picks but not good enough to contend. Do you dump them and head back for *another* round at the bottom? Do you keep them and hope to add a KG and a Ray? Do you cut bait with a Wade, or spend 10 years hoping for a Shaq or a LeBron? How many years can you not get close to a title with a Dirk before you feel the need to drop him and try the lottery again?

[esel1000]

2012 Bobcats won 7 games and still weren't #1 in the lottery. Tanking for a high lotto pick is useless and hurts the organization in the long run. I'd rather an organization faithful to winning (even in rebuilding). That's how you attract players.

[CelticConcourse]

I love how there's three lists of great players not drafted in the top 5. XD Oh, what scrolling up can do for you... (kidding around here)

The lottery is called lottery for a reason.

[Bosstown]

For all these guys there is a Sam Bowie too though picked at number 2 ahead of Jordan or a Darko.  What about Greg Oden,
Michael Olowokandi and Kwame Brown all number ones?

Draft is hit or miss but usually best to pick higher than later.

Watch the Bowie Documentary, he was far from a joke. The rest of those guys...yea.

[LarBrd33]

Unless we trade Rondo, Green, Bradley, and Sully, we will be in no position to get wiggins.

I do think we should blow the rest of the team up though

Trade Green and Rondo then.

Try to get expiring contracts and draft picks for them (higher the better)

Build around cap space, youth and draft picks (top 5 picks... not late lotto picks).

See my post here for my full realistic blueprint on building a dynasty:  http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=64634.msg1463478#msg1463478

  You seem to have found a realistic way to get to the bottom, that's the easy part. If that's all it took to build a dynasty then the Clips and the Kings and the Wizards would be perennial contenders.

I'm not a short-sighted fan.  You don't build a contender by perpetually making the playoffs with the 7th or 8th seed.


Fact:  Drafting in the Top 5 gives you by far a better opportunity to land a franchise player.   Regardless of what happens next season, if KG retires... this team is going to miss the playoffs.   The thing is, we might be a late lotto team if we hang onto Rondo and Green.  Yes, you can luck into allstars picking in the late lotto... but if you want a franchise player, you're gon need to be picking in the top 5.

List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

... Are you seeing a pattern here???

Slapping together a mediocre team is fine and all, but it just prolongs your suffering.  If you properly tanked to the league's worst record, your worst case scenario is pick #4.   Yes, this doesn't assure you of drafting a franchise player, but it puts you in a DRAMATICALLY better position of doing so. 

Yes, it's possible to draft a bust in the top 5.  It's more likely you draft a bust in the late lotto, though.  Top 5 picks are gold.  They are your one and only shot at a superstar.  2014 draft has 1 bonified superstar in Wiggins and a couple others who may reach that level as well.  You don't get this opportunity very often... and while drafting 6-30 theoretically gives you a shot at an all-star as well (see Rondo, Rajon), it's far FAR more unlikely.

I see you've conveniently left out the names of the most productive players in the league this year that weren't drafted in the top 5:

Andre Iguodala (9)
Joakim Noah (9)
Brook Lopez (10)
Paul George (10)
Joe Johnson (10)
Josh Smith (17)
Roy Hibbert (17)
Jrue Holliday (17)
JR Smith (18)
David West (18)
Zach Randolph (19)
Tony Parker (28)
David Lee (30)
Marc Gasol (48)

No, not all of these players are what you would consider "superstars", but they're certainly not scrubs either. Tony Parker was a legit top 5 MVP candidate this season on a 58 win team. Gasol just won DPOY, and anchored one of the best defensive teams in the league. JR Smith won Sixth Man of the Year. Noah, George, Holiday, Lopez, Noah, Lee, Parker, and Randolph were All-Stars this year, and aside from Holliday, all are (or were) starters on a playoff team.


(Edit: oops, guess I'm a few posts too late on this)

Nice list.  I was sorting by NBA efficiency... the most productive players in the league (the franchise players) are almost all picked in the top 5.   Listing off all-stars (who are best served as the 2nd-4th best player on a title team) does nothing to disprove what I said...

If you want a franchise player, you need to properly tank.  If you want a mediocre team, you can cross your fingers and hope to defy the odds and land a talent like the above players (none of which will ever be the centerpiece of a championship team)

[bobbyv]

Unless we trade Rondo, Green, Bradley, and Sully, we will be in no position to get wiggins.

I do think we should blow the rest of the team up though

Trade Green and Rondo then.

Try to get expiring contracts and draft picks for them (higher the better)

Build around cap space, youth and draft picks (top 5 picks... not late lotto picks).

See my post here for my full realistic blueprint on building a dynasty:  http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=64634.msg1463478#msg1463478

  You seem to have found a realistic way to get to the bottom, that's the easy part. If that's all it took to build a dynasty then the Clips and the Kings and the Wizards would be perennial contenders.

I'm not a short-sighted fan.  You don't build a contender by perpetually making the playoffs with the 7th or 8th seed.


Fact:  Drafting in the Top 5 gives you by far a better opportunity to land a franchise player.   Regardless of what happens next season, if KG retires... this team is going to miss the playoffs.   The thing is, we might be a late lotto team if we hang onto Rondo and Green.  Yes, you can luck into allstars picking in the late lotto... but if you want a franchise player, you're gon need to be picking in the top 5.

List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

... Are you seeing a pattern here???

Slapping together a mediocre team is fine and all, but it just prolongs your suffering.  If you properly tanked to the league's worst record, your worst case scenario is pick #4.   Yes, this doesn't assure you of drafting a franchise player, but it puts you in a DRAMATICALLY better position of doing so. 

Yes, it's possible to draft a bust in the top 5.  It's more likely you draft a bust in the late lotto, though.  Top 5 picks are gold.  They are your one and only shot at a superstar.  2014 draft has 1 bonified superstar in Wiggins and a couple others who may reach that level as well.  You don't get this opportunity very often... and while drafting 6-30 theoretically gives you a shot at an all-star as well (see Rondo, Rajon), it's far FAR more unlikely.

I see you've conveniently left out the names of the most productive players in the league this year that weren't drafted in the top 5:

Andre Iguodala (9)
Joakim Noah (9)
Brook Lopez (10)
Paul George (10)
Joe Johnson (10)
Josh Smith (17)
Roy Hibbert (17)
Jrue Holliday (17)
JR Smith (18)
David West (18)
Zach Randolph (19)
Tony Parker (28)
David Lee (30)
Marc Gasol (48)

No, not all of these players are what you would consider "superstars", but they're certainly not scrubs either. Tony Parker was a legit top 5 MVP candidate this season on a 58 win team. Gasol just won DPOY, and anchored one of the best defensive teams in the league. JR Smith won Sixth Man of the Year. Noah, George, Holiday, Lopez, Noah, Lee, Parker, and Randolph were All-Stars this year, and aside from Holliday, all are (or were) starters on a playoff team.


(Edit: oops, guess I'm a few posts too late on this)

Nice list.  I was sorting by NBA efficiency... the most productive players in the league (the franchise players) are almost all picked in the top 5.   Listing off all-stars (who are best served as the 2nd-4th best player on a title team) does nothing to disprove what I said...

If you want a franchise player, you need to properly tank.  If you want a mediocre team, you can cross your fingers and hope to defy the odds and land a talent like the above players (none of which will ever be the centerpiece of a championship team)

You do realize properly tanking is more likely easily lead you to the Bobcats (perennial bottom feeder) than OKC, right?