We Need to Stop Confusing Potential with Being a Championship Piece

[EJPLAYA]

There are so many posts floating around out there stating that we just need to tweak things and that players like Bradley, Green, Sully, etc are pieces that if added to will make us contenders. Facts are this. Bradley still is only a solid defender that can harass another teams PG. Green shows flashes of being a very good consistent scoring option but isn't anywhere near the Rebounder or Passer that PP has been for us. Sully looks like he has upside and appears to be a pretty good rebounder.

That being said, they are all just "Potential" guys that haven't developed anywhere close to where they would need to be for us to compete with the Heat. And that's assuming we can add another all-star to the roster. How often does a player develop into what you "hope" that he will become? We have said for 6 years now that Rondo only needs to develop his shooting in order to be the best PG in the league, and although he is a little better in that department, we still have a PG that is a good passer and rebounder for his position but a guy who can't really shoot still. He is basically the same player he was 4 years ago, and although that is a really good PG overall, he didn't become a great shooter and the best in the league. It is much more likely that these guys are going to be just what they are now. Green an off and on scorer who doesn't really rebound or pass well. Sully a solid rebounder who can put the ball in the basket at times but not dominant. Bradley a one dimensional defender who every once in a while shows an offensive flash.

That isn't going to win it all guys no matter who you add. We only won ONE championship and had Rondo plus 3 Hall of Famers. Miami has 2 likely Hall of Famers and an All Star in Bosch. You aren't going to beat that with potential filled role players. Time to rebuild for real and hope we get lucky with the draft so we can trade them like we did with KG and Ray.

[BASS_THUMPER]

who do we rebuild with?.next move?

cuz this is anutha thread "floating around"

tell me sumthin Playa?

[chambers]

There are so many posts floating around out there stating that we just need to tweak things and that players like Bradley, Green, Sully, etc are pieces that if added to will make us contenders. Facts are this. Bradley still is only a solid defender that can harass another teams PG. Green shows flashes of being a very good consistent scoring option but isn't anywhere near the Rebounder or Passer that PP has been for us. Sully looks like he has upside and appears to be a pretty good rebounder.

That being said, they are all just "Potential" guys that haven't developed anywhere close to where they would need to be for us to compete with the Heat. And that's assuming we can add another all-star to the roster. How often does a player develop into what you "hope" that he will become? We have said for 6 years now that Rondo only needs to develop his shooting in order to be the best PG in the league, and although he is a little better in that department, we still have a PG that is a good passer and rebounder for his position but a guy who can't really shoot still. He is basically the same player he was 4 years ago, and although that is a really good PG overall, he didn't become a great shooter and the best in the league. It is much more likely that these guys are going to be just what they are now. Green an off and on scorer who doesn't really rebound or pass well. Sully a solid rebounder who can put the ball in the basket at times but not dominant. Bradley a one dimensional defender who every once in a while shows an offensive flash.

That isn't going to win it all guys no matter who you add. We only won ONE championship and had Rondo plus 3 Hall of Famers. Miami has 2 likely Hall of Famers and an All Star in Bosch. You aren't going to beat that with potential filled role players. Time to rebuild for real and hope we get lucky with the draft so we can trade them like we did with KG and Ray.

I agree 100%.
Danny knows this too.
Seems almost impossible for us to get a superstar via sign and trade or free agency. All the real game changers either hate us or have loyalty to other squads.

This is why I believe tanking next season and shooting for the 2014 draft is our best hope.

Getting Josh Smith and Millsap or a combination of some free agents next season isn't a great move.

Get rid of KG, get rid of Pierce.
Let Green, Bradley and Sully all increase their trade value and TANK.
Get a top 5 pick through tanking. Get another top 10 pick by trading Bradley and Green.
Depending how good Sully looks next season, either trade him when we see he won't be a game changer or keep him for the rebuild.
Get Wiggins or Parker. Sign Demarcus Cousins and one or two of the 2015 class of free agents.
Move Rondo if we have to but try and keep him around.
Let Doc build us a squad over a 5 year period.

We just aren't winning another championship with the free agents this offseason. Better to wait it out till 2015 and hopefully tank beforehand to increase our chances even more.

[LarBrd33]

I'm just going to post EXACTLY what I wrote in January:

I play a lot of video games.  a 1-5 star scale makes the most sense.  The better you are, the more stars you are.

For instance:

5 stars: Superstar
4 stars: All-Star
3 stars: Starter
2 stars: Rotation Player
1 star: End of the Bench


Rarely do players reach 5 stars.  We're talking LeBron, Durant... maybe Dwight and Chris Paul at their peaks.  Like in video games, players have a current level and a "potential" level.  Like if we were to look at DeMarcus Cousins... his current level is 3.5 stars... with a perceived potential of 4.5 stars.  He might never reach that potential though.

Our roster, imo:

KG in his prime was a 5... now he's a 4.
Pierce in his absolute prime may have been a 4.5, but it was short lived... he's been a 4 for most of his career and is inching towards 3.5.
Ray in his absolute prime was a 4.5... now he's a 2.5
Rondo is a 4.  His stats often suggest otherwise, but he's a 4.
Terry is life long 2.5
Bass is a 2 ->  2.5
Sully is a 2 right now with a potential anywhere between 2.5 and 3.
Lee is a 2.5
Barbosa is a 2 -> 2.5
Bradley is a 2.5 right now with a max potential of a 3.5.  THough some here see him as having 4 potential.  A few more see him as having 4.5 potential, but that's just homers being homers.
Fab Melo is a 0.5 right now probably with a max potential of 3 (Perkins was about the same).
Jeff Green is a 3 with 3.5 potential


...

In other words:

PG - Rondo - 4 stars
SG - Lee - 2.5 stars
SF - Pierce - 4 stars
PF - KG - 4 stars
C - Collins - 1 star
----
SF - Green - 3 stars
PF - Bass - 2.5 stars
SG - Terry - 2.5 stars
SG - Bradley - 2.5 stars
SG - Barbosa - 2.5 stars
PF - Sullinger - 2 stars

... Hence why I've been saying this roster "made no sense" since prior to the season starting and hence why our current struggles aren't surprising at all to me.

It's why you'd give up pretty much anything outside of Rondo to get a young 3.5 Center with 4.5 star potential.... and why it's highly unlikely our talent is valuable enough to land one.

Even landing Al Jefferson (3.5) or Josh Smith (3.5) would be an upgrade.

Still... hard to compete with a team like Miami that has a 5 star, 4.5 star and 4 star player.  And it's why you can't count out the Lakers to get it together with Kobe (4.5), Dwight (5 star when healthy), Pau (4 star when healthy), and Nash (3.5 now)

The reason why draft picks (especially lotto picks) are so valuable is that you're basically rolling the dice that you're going to land a 4.5.  It's the easiest and cheapest method of doing so.  The higher the pick, the better your odds of landing a 4.5.  Sure, you're still more likely to land a 2, but it's a chance.  Would teams give up a chance at landing a 4.5 in order to take back a 2.5 with max 3.5 potential?... probably not since their worse case scenario with the lotto pick is probably landing a 2.5 (if they know what they are doing).  So generally you probably give a top 5 pick a value of 3.5.. a lotto pick a value of 3.  Maybe higher, right?  It's why I keep asking whether anyone would actually part with a lotto pick for Avery Bradley (2.5 value currently ... possible 3.5 value if he defies the size odds and EVERYTHING goes as planned).  Most teams probably keep the lotto pick (3 star value currrently... small chance of it becoming a 4.5... as opposed to zero chance of Bradley becoming a 4.5)

... Updates from January:

Kg's defensive impact is off the charts... but he's probably fallen to 3.5 at this point.   Pierce has fallen to 3.5.  Jeff Green probably reached his peak of 3.5 this season... his shooting was incredible.  Rondo was a 4 star player before his injury... not sure what he'll look like when (if) he comes back next season.  I was being generous when I said Bradley had 3.5 star potential... he's a max 3 star player long-term, imo.  Age has caught up with Terry... he's down to 2.

Our lineup during the playoffs:

PG - Bradley - 2.5 stars
SG - Pierce - 3.5 stars (looked like he dropped to 3, though)
SF - Green - 3.5
PF - Bass - 2.5 stars
C - KG - 3.5 stars
---
SG - Terry - 2 stars (he's dropped)
SG - Crawford - 2 stars
SG - Lee - 2 stars
SG - Williams - 2 stars
DNP - Shavlik - 0.5 stars
DNP - Fab Melo - 0.5 stars
DNP - Wilcox - 1.5 stars


... And people want to blame it on the coaching that we didn't upset the 2nd seed Knicks... lol

Little chance we make the playoffs next year.  Smart move is on tanking... Andrew Wiggins supposedly has 5 star potential.

Bottom line:  There isn't a single blue-chipper on this team.  Not a single player with star potential.  Rondo isn't a franchise player... we're in rough shape.  It's time to tank and acquire assets.  Does anyone disagree with me here?

[LGC88]

Hi,
It's obvious DA knew that when he build this squad adding Terry Lee Barbosa. Those 3 were brought to compensate our lack in offense.
Evdrybody believed we had a chance this year. Unfortunately it didn't work out and the injuries killed us.
Like Danny and Doc said,  nothing is good enough but a tittle. This is the spirit of this franchise. Win it all each year.
With that in mind Danny do his job very well and I hope the franchise will continu in that direction.

[EDWARDO]

So, if Bradley was healthy last year and we had beaten the Heat in game 7, they still wouldn't be "championship pieces"?

All these guys would be championship pieces right now playing next to Lebron or Durant. Until we get a guy like that (or KG from a few years ago), all we can do is assemble the "championship pieces" -- the rooks and knights to put around a queen (or two... hmm, that sounds a bit odd, but the queen is the most powerful chess piece, not the king!).

Danny did a great job of putting together a lot of pieces/assets 6 years ago. Let's hope he can do it again.

[EDWARDO]

A better example would have been Melo. Clearly has potential, but not at all a championship piece right now. Sully, Green and Bradley could all play minutes on the Heat right now and they will romp to the title.

[clover]

Really, for the playoffs, when you factor in all the TO's, the .368 FG% (.268% from 3), and the ill-advised shots, Pierce was at best a 2.0. (He and Crawford tied for the team worst on WS at -.2.)

KG, Green, Bass and JET played well. 

Lee and TWill were so-so in short minutes.

Bradley, Pierce and Crawford were terrible.

Shav and Wilcox were neutered by Doc.

[kgainez]

i guess i'm one of the ppl who would like to let PP and KG go an be a legitimate mediocre team then. I don't think a core of Rondo and JG would get a championship. In the East, I do think they'd be a 7th or 8th seed. And if playoff Rondo is real, and JG becomes realer (yall saw him in the last quarter in game 6) we will be COMPETITIVE.

I think you get a decent draft big, keep T-Will as Rondo's back-up, maybe incorporate a guy like Shav more...I'd like to see that DEVELOPMENT.

The problem with the Cs is there is no DEVELOPMENT of younger players. They basically have to get in where they fit in because Doc is a veteran's coach. How many times did we beg Doc to sit JET and play someone else? Even KG and PP? Younger guys don't get better in an environment where we hold on to 35+ year olds.

Let them go. Stop being so sentimental. I'd rather be 41-40 with young guys than be 41-40 with 2 HOFers on my squad. That's just me.

[clover]

i guess i'm one of the ppl who would like to let PP and KG go an be a legitimate mediocre team then. I don't think a core of Rondo and JG would get a championship. In the East, I do think they'd be a 7th or 8th seed. And if playoff Rondo is real, and JG becomes realer (yall saw him in the last quarter in game 6) we will be COMPETITIVE.

I think you get a decent draft big, keep T-Will as Rondo's back-up, maybe incorporate a guy like Shav more...I'd like to see that DEVELOPMENT.

The problem with the Cs is there is no DEVELOPMENT of younger players. They basically have to get in where they fit in because Doc is a veteran's coach. How many times did we beg Doc to sit JET and play someone else? Even KG and PP? Younger guys don't get better in an environment where we hold on to 35+ year olds.

Let them go. Stop being so sentimental. I'd rather be 41-40 with young guys than be 41-40 with 2 HOFers on my squad. That's just me.

I'm with you.  I'd rather Danny had got something for them when/if he could, but I absolutely don't want to see a year seven on the three-year plan.  The young guys do need to be developed, whether they're keepers or trade fodder.  Though JET was one of the four guys who played decently in the playoffs, I hated the idea of signing another geriatric to a long-term deal.

Although the declining ticket sales could make Wyc less amenable to spending big on the team, at least it should keep him from thinking they'll be rewarded for promoting another HoFer final tour next year.

[thirstyboots18]

i guess i'm one of the ppl who would like to let PP and KG go an be a legitimate mediocre team then. I don't think a core of Rondo and JG would get a championship. In the East, I do think they'd be a 7th or 8th seed. And if playoff Rondo is real, and JG becomes realer (yall saw him in the last quarter in game 6) we will be COMPETITIVE.

I think you get a decent draft big, keep T-Will as Rondo's back-up, maybe incorporate a guy like Shav more...I'd like to see that DEVELOPMENT.

The problem with the Cs is there is no DEVELOPMENT of younger players. They basically have to get in where they fit in because Doc is a veteran's coach. How many times did we beg Doc to sit JET and play someone else? Even KG and PP? Younger guys don't get better in an environment where we hold on to 35+ year olds.

Let them go. Stop being so sentimental. I'd rather be 41-40 with young guys than be 41-40 with 2 HOFers on my squad. That's just me.

ha ha ha.  That is just you and about 50% of the members here.  It is not my opinion, however, and the other 50%.  I think younger guys do get better with veteran leadership, and I do not think the younger guys are ready to be thrown into the playoffs after only a couple months with the club.  And that is just me and my sentimental opinion. 

[kgainez]

i guess i'm one of the ppl who would like to let PP and KG go an be a legitimate mediocre team then. I don't think a core of Rondo and JG would get a championship. In the East, I do think they'd be a 7th or 8th seed. And if playoff Rondo is real, and JG becomes realer (yall saw him in the last quarter in game 6) we will be COMPETITIVE.

I think you get a decent draft big, keep T-Will as Rondo's back-up, maybe incorporate a guy like Shav more...I'd like to see that DEVELOPMENT.

The problem with the Cs is there is no DEVELOPMENT of younger players. They basically have to get in where they fit in because Doc is a veteran's coach. How many times did we beg Doc to sit JET and play someone else? Even KG and PP? Younger guys don't get better in an environment where we hold on to 35+ year olds.

Let them go. Stop being so sentimental. I'd rather be 41-40 with young guys than be 41-40 with 2 HOFers on my squad. That's just me.

ha ha ha.  That is just you and about 50% of the members here.  It is not my opinion, however, and the other 50%.  I think younger guys do get better with veteran leadership, and I do not think the younger guys are ready to be thrown into the playoffs after only a couple months with the club.  And that is just me and my sentimental opinion. 

Right.
Jason Kidd is a veteran to the Knicks, but he's on the bench.
Derek Fisher is a veteran to the Thunder, but he's on the bench.
Ray Allen is a vet to the Heat, but he's on the bench.
Spurs do a great job of mixing vets and younger players. Cs do not.

I don't mind the vets, but them having such a large role is my issue. Always has been.
And Rondo is approaching veteran territory. You keep a guy like JET (who I think will be much better next year) then you have a veteran. JG can be trusted with his playoff experience...CW is a veteran. And I'm sure we can pick up another vet on the cheap. Probably a guy who can shoot (I'm looking at LB).

[CoachBo]

i guess i'm one of the ppl who would like to let PP and KG go an be a legitimate mediocre team then. I don't think a core of Rondo and JG would get a championship. In the East, I do think they'd be a 7th or 8th seed. And if playoff Rondo is real, and JG becomes realer (yall saw him in the last quarter in game 6) we will be COMPETITIVE.

I think you get a decent draft big, keep T-Will as Rondo's back-up, maybe incorporate a guy like Shav more...I'd like to see that DEVELOPMENT.

The problem with the Cs is there is no DEVELOPMENT of younger players. They basically have to get in where they fit in because Doc is a veteran's coach. How many times did we beg Doc to sit JET and play someone else? Even KG and PP? Younger guys don't get better in an environment where we hold on to 35+ year olds.

Let them go. Stop being so sentimental. I'd rather be 41-40 with young guys than be 41-40 with 2 HOFers on my squad. That's just me.

ha ha ha.  That is just you and about 50% of the members here.  It is not my opinion, however, and the other 50%.  I think younger guys do get better with veteran leadership, and I do not think the younger guys are ready to be thrown into the playoffs after only a couple months with the club.  And that is just me and my sentimental opinion. 

Good post. TP.

With that said, it's about time for that other 50 percent to see what reality is with this franchise, I think.

And here's reality: A long, long stretch in the wilderness of the NBA. Again. Once they see quite clearly that Rondo is not the foundation of a rebuild, but a petulant, offensively-challenged, stats-chasing ball stopper. And that every single young player who comes through the TD isn't a future superstar and won't grow under Rondo's kind of veteran "leadership," as this blog so loves to contend.

It's over, I believe. Pierce will be bought out and Garnett will retire. And the Celtics will be irrelevant - for a very long time. Welcome to 2007.

[CoachBo]

There are so many posts floating around out there stating that we just need to tweak things and that players like Bradley, Green, Sully, etc are pieces that if added to will make us contenders. Facts are this. Bradley still is only a solid defender that can harass another teams PG. Green shows flashes of being a very good consistent scoring option but isn't anywhere near the Rebounder or Passer that PP has been for us. Sully looks like he has upside and appears to be a pretty good rebounder.

That being said, they are all just "Potential" guys that haven't developed anywhere close to where they would need to be for us to compete with the Heat. And that's assuming we can add another all-star to the roster. How often does a player develop into what you "hope" that he will become? We have said for 6 years now that Rondo only needs to develop his shooting in order to be the best PG in the league, and although he is a little better in that department, we still have a PG that is a good passer and rebounder for his position but a guy who can't really shoot still. He is basically the same player he was 4 years ago, and although that is a really good PG overall, he didn't become a great shooter and the best in the league. It is much more likely that these guys are going to be just what they are now. Green an off and on scorer who doesn't really rebound or pass well. Sully a solid rebounder who can put the ball in the basket at times but not dominant. Bradley a one dimensional defender who every once in a while shows an offensive flash.

That isn't going to win it all guys no matter who you add. We only won ONE championship and had Rondo plus 3 Hall of Famers. Miami has 2 likely Hall of Famers and an All Star in Bosch. You aren't going to beat that with potential filled role players. Time to rebuild for real and hope we get lucky with the draft so we can trade them like we did with KG and Ray.

You make some good points, especially on all the hyperventilating around here about Bradley. Sullinger, et al. But I would tell you flatly that if Ainge tries to rebuild around Rondo - while Pierce and Garnett disappear - it will. not. work. This franchise will be bombed back to the mid-2000s and it will take years to escape it. There are few, if any, legitimate pieces for a rebuild on this roster right now. Maybe Green. Maybe not. Beyond that ...

They've talked at length about rebuilding on the fly. It is a dicey proposition at best and it cannot be done by walking away from Pierce and Garnett and using Rondo and the above pieces as the foundation.

[pearljammer10]

But the East is turrible. Even if we have a "mediocre" team with young assets we could end up a four or five seed.