I think I am seeing the same thing as Roy and C2021. For 2026-27, we have 12 players signed (if you include Shulga). It is 13 if you assume the first round pick is signed. Using Roy's value for that rookie deal, that would leave us at $185,285,735 for these 13 with roughly $16M to spare to stay below the tax. Shugla may get waived and replaced with another contract.
But Queta is already accounted for in this at $2,667,944. Queta's contract is non-guaranteed, but BOS does not need to pay him any more than this amount for 2026-27. I believe they could extend him for some years beyond 2026-27, but I am not sure they would pay him more in 2026-27. Am I missing something?
If you assume that Queta's 2026-27 salary does not change, they would have about $16M below the tax to cover the 14th and possibly 15th roster spots. Even if you assume BOS uses the TPMLE (about $6M) on a vet, that still leaves $10M for Vucevic, which should be more than enough.
I think the likely transaction is that Shulga does get waived and is replaced by Harper. Then BOS would still have spots 14 and 15 and something less than $16M due to Harper costing a little more than Shulga. I suspect that there will be a lot of decent players settling for contracts in the range of the TPMLE ($6M'ish) so BOS should be able to keep Vucevic and add another decent vet if they want.
Thanks to Roy and C2021 for your explanations of how we might be able to keep Vooch and get an impact player in free agency with the MLE (basically if Vooch just wants to win and is willing to take a minimum salary).
VG, thanks to you too for your post here about the TPMLE.
Assuming that there is a mandate from ownership to stay below the tax threshold and reset the repeater tax, could we sign someone to the MLE at a lower salary? Or is the MLE set in stone?
Separately, is there any way to sign someone with the full MLE, (reluctantly) let Vooch walk, and sign a different player with one of the TPEs who might be an impactful player? All while being able to reset the repeater tax?
Thanks in advance!