We have missed on two of our last three first round picks.

[Boris Badenov]

In retrospect I probably over-valued Delonte (remembering his Celtic days more than the injuries and other issues). I'd still rate him as "definitely higher," but maybe not by much. (You can really name 23 players you would have drafted earlier than him? I just went through and can only think of 18...).

Sticking to my guns on Allen though. I'd personally only rank 10 or so players as having panned out better than him. I'm admittedly a sucker for defense over offense, but I don't think there's enough room for disagreement that he'd be out of the lottery for very many people...

Clearly ahead of West
Dwight
Okafor
Gordon
Harris
Childress
Deng
Iguodala
Biedrins
Jefferson
Josh Smith
JR Smith
Nelson
Allen
Martin
Varejao
Andres Nocioni (undrafted rookie in 2004)
16 total

Likely ahead of West
Telfair
Humphries
Wright
Ariza
4 subtotal, 20 total

Possibly ahead of West
Livingston
Udrih
Duhon
3 subtotal, 23 total

About the same as West
Swift (injuries did him in, not suckiness)
Vujacic
Ivey
3 subtotal, 26 total

So I think he would go from 21st to 27th depending on team need and what not.

My idea is that you re-do the draft based on players' actual performance since 2004. I'm evaluating DWest given his actual history including injuries, which pushes him down several slots IMO.

Once you start thinking about what players would have done if they weren't hurt, you're back into hypothetical-land - and the idea is to make the re-draft as black and white as possible.

I understand that it's not the GM's fault that a player gets hurt, but I don't see any other way to think about it without getting into a snakepit of what-ifs.

[Moranis]

In retrospect I probably over-valued Delonte (remembering his Celtic days more than the injuries and other issues). I'd still rate him as "definitely higher," but maybe not by much. (You can really name 23 players you would have drafted earlier than him? I just went through and can only think of 18...).

Sticking to my guns on Allen though. I'd personally only rank 10 or so players as having panned out better than him. I'm admittedly a sucker for defense over offense, but I don't think there's enough room for disagreement that he'd be out of the lottery for very many people...

Clearly ahead of West
Dwight
Okafor
Gordon
Harris
Childress
Deng
Iguodala
Biedrins
Jefferson
Josh Smith
JR Smith
Nelson
Allen
Martin
Varejao
Andres Nocioni (undrafted rookie in 2004)
16 total

Likely ahead of West
Telfair
Humphries
Wright
Ariza
4 subtotal, 20 total

Possibly ahead of West
Livingston
Udrih
Duhon
3 subtotal, 23 total

About the same as West
Swift (injuries did him in, not suckiness)
Vujacic
Ivey
3 subtotal, 26 total

So I think he would go from 21st to 27th depending on team need and what not.

My idea is that you re-do the draft based on players' actual performance since 2004. I'm evaluating DWest given his actual history including injuries, which pushes him down several slots IMO.

Once you start thinking about what players would have done if they weren't hurt, you're back into hypothetical-land - and the idea is to make the re-draft as black and white as possible.

I understand that it's not the GM's fault that a player gets hurt, but I don't see any other way to think about it without getting into a snakepit of what-ifs.

That is what I did.  I think if the draft was re-done Delonte would go anywhere from 21-27 in that particular year.  Now if you would have re-done the draft after 2006, Delonte would have been much higher, but the reality is he just hasn't been that good since he left Boston and when you couple that with all the off court problems and injuries, he falls even more.

I think Allen goes in the 15-20 range depending on team need and what not, which is better than where he was, I just don't see it as some major steal.

[Levis107]

The worst part of the Fab Melo pick is that we could have rolled that draft pick over until 2016 when it lost it's lottery protection. Why did the Celtics feel like they had to get two picks in last years draft? It was a weak draft. Next year's draft is gonna be loaded and even though it's the Clipper pick, we could have gotten someone much better than Melo.

[Moranis]

The worst part of the Fab Melo pick is that we could have rolled that draft pick over until 2016 when it lost it's lottery protection. Why did the Celtics feel like they had to get two picks in last years draft? It was a weak draft. Next year's draft is gonna be loaded and even though it's the Clipper pick, we could have gotten someone much better than Melo.

It wasn't a choice.  We had to take it the first year it wasn't protected, which was last year.

[Celtics4ever]

Melo was high risk and high reward.   Any draft pick is a gamble.   I still think Ainge has found players in the draft for where he has drafted.

[Boris Badenov]

In retrospect I probably over-valued Delonte (remembering his Celtic days more than the injuries and other issues). I'd still rate him as "definitely higher," but maybe not by much. (You can really name 23 players you would have drafted earlier than him? I just went through and can only think of 18...).

Sticking to my guns on Allen though. I'd personally only rank 10 or so players as having panned out better than him. I'm admittedly a sucker for defense over offense, but I don't think there's enough room for disagreement that he'd be out of the lottery for very many people...

Clearly ahead of West
Dwight
Okafor
Gordon
Harris
Childress
Deng
Iguodala
Biedrins
Jefferson
Josh Smith
JR Smith
Nelson
Allen
Martin
Varejao
Andres Nocioni (undrafted rookie in 2004)
16 total

Likely ahead of West
Telfair
Humphries
Wright
Ariza
4 subtotal, 20 total

Possibly ahead of West
Livingston
Udrih
Duhon
3 subtotal, 23 total

About the same as West
Swift (injuries did him in, not suckiness)
Vujacic
Ivey
3 subtotal, 26 total

So I think he would go from 21st to 27th depending on team need and what not.

My idea is that you re-do the draft based on players' actual performance since 2004. I'm evaluating DWest given his actual history including injuries, which pushes him down several slots IMO.

Once you start thinking about what players would have done if they weren't hurt, you're back into hypothetical-land - and the idea is to make the re-draft as black and white as possible.

I understand that it's not the GM's fault that a player gets hurt, but I don't see any other way to think about it without getting into a snakepit of what-ifs.

That is what I did.  I think if the draft was re-done Delonte would go anywhere from 21-27 in that particular year.  Now if you would have re-done the draft after 2006, Delonte would have been much higher, but the reality is he just hasn't been that good since he left Boston and when you couple that with all the off court problems and injuries, he falls even more.

I think Allen goes in the 15-20 range depending on team need and what not, which is better than where he was, I just don't see it as some major steal.

If you think anyone would take Robert Swift's actual performance from 2004-present pver Delonte's for the same period, or that anyone would pick Telfair's over Tony Allen's (just to pick one example for each player), I don't know what to say. The facts are there for anyone to look at.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2004.html

But you're entitled to your opinion.

[Fafnir]

The worst part of the Fab Melo pick is that we could have rolled that draft pick over until 2016 when it lost it's lottery protection. Why did the Celtics feel like they had to get two picks in last years draft? It was a weak draft. Next year's draft is gonna be loaded and even though it's the Clipper pick, we could have gotten someone much better than Melo.

It wasn't a choice.  We had to take it the first year it wasn't protected, which was last year.

Bill Simmons keeps saying we had the option, I haven't heard that from anyone else in the media though.

[Boris Badenov]

The worst part of the Fab Melo pick is that we could have rolled that draft pick over until 2016 when it lost it's lottery protection. Why did the Celtics feel like they had to get two picks in last years draft? It was a weak draft. Next year's draft is gonna be loaded and even though it's the Clipper pick, we could have gotten someone much better than Melo.

It wasn't a choice.  We had to take it the first year it wasn't protected, which was last year.

Bill Simmons keeps saying we had the option, I haven't heard that from anyone else in the media though.

Yeah, I can find no evidence of this.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/tag/_/name/draft-picks

Having an option like this would dramatically increase the value of the pick - I can't believe OKC would have traded such a valuable option.

[Snakehead]

The worst part of the Fab Melo pick is that we could have rolled that draft pick over until 2016 when it lost it's lottery protection. Why did the Celtics feel like they had to get two picks in last years draft? It was a weak draft. Next year's draft is gonna be loaded and even though it's the Clipper pick, we could have gotten someone much better than Melo.

It wasn't a choice.  We had to take it the first year it wasn't protected, which was last year.

Bill Simmons keeps saying we had the option, I haven't heard that from anyone else in the media though.

Yes I heard him say that the other day but I'd call BS.  Hardly would be surprising that Bill Simmons would be completely wrong about something.

[slamtheking]

The worst part of the Fab Melo pick is that we could have rolled that draft pick over until 2016 when it lost it's lottery protection. Why did the Celtics feel like they had to get two picks in last years draft? It was a weak draft. Next year's draft is gonna be loaded and even though it's the Clipper pick, we could have gotten someone much better than Melo.

It wasn't a choice.  We had to take it the first year it wasn't protected, which was last year.

Bill Simmons keeps saying we had the option, I haven't heard that from anyone else in the media though.

Yes I heard him say that the other day but I'd call BS.  Hardly would be surprising that Bill Simmons would be completely wrong about something.

agreed -- no team in their right mind would allow another to have tha much control over their picks.  haven't seen a case where a team receiving a pick has the option to continue to roll it over until it's no longer lottery protected.  I've seen where a team as the option of exercizing the rights to a pick in one year or anothoer.  I belive this was what happened when we used 2 picks to get Joe Johnson and Kedrick Brown when we could have waited a year and used that pick to get someone really good in the Bron draft -- I think Carmelo was an option on that pick if I recall correctly.

[Moranis]

In retrospect I probably over-valued Delonte (remembering his Celtic days more than the injuries and other issues). I'd still rate him as "definitely higher," but maybe not by much. (You can really name 23 players you would have drafted earlier than him? I just went through and can only think of 18...).

Sticking to my guns on Allen though. I'd personally only rank 10 or so players as having panned out better than him. I'm admittedly a sucker for defense over offense, but I don't think there's enough room for disagreement that he'd be out of the lottery for very many people...

Clearly ahead of West
Dwight
Okafor
Gordon
Harris
Childress
Deng
Iguodala
Biedrins
Jefferson
Josh Smith
JR Smith
Nelson
Allen
Martin
Varejao
Andres Nocioni (undrafted rookie in 2004)
16 total

Likely ahead of West
Telfair
Humphries
Wright
Ariza
4 subtotal, 20 total

Possibly ahead of West
Livingston
Udrih
Duhon
3 subtotal, 23 total

About the same as West
Swift (injuries did him in, not suckiness)
Vujacic
Ivey
3 subtotal, 26 total

So I think he would go from 21st to 27th depending on team need and what not.

My idea is that you re-do the draft based on players' actual performance since 2004. I'm evaluating DWest given his actual history including injuries, which pushes him down several slots IMO.

Once you start thinking about what players would have done if they weren't hurt, you're back into hypothetical-land - and the idea is to make the re-draft as black and white as possible.

I understand that it's not the GM's fault that a player gets hurt, but I don't see any other way to think about it without getting into a snakepit of what-ifs.

That is what I did.  I think if the draft was re-done Delonte would go anywhere from 21-27 in that particular year.  Now if you would have re-done the draft after 2006, Delonte would have been much higher, but the reality is he just hasn't been that good since he left Boston and when you couple that with all the off court problems and injuries, he falls even more.

I think Allen goes in the 15-20 range depending on team need and what not, which is better than where he was, I just don't see it as some major steal.

If you think anyone would take Robert Swift's actual performance from 2004-present pver Delonte's for the same period, or that anyone would pick Telfair's over Tony Allen's (just to pick one example for each player), I don't know what to say. The facts are there for anyone to look at.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2004.html

But you're entitled to your opinion.

I wouldn't take Telfair over Allen, but that doesn't mean Allen would go where Telfair was actually drafted, he wouldn't.  I would take every single player in the list I have Allen ahead of him except perhaps Nocioni and I would certainly consider Humphries, Wright, and Ariza from the list behind him as going ahead of him as well.  Hence my 15-20ish range for Allen.

[Fafnir]

You'd take Biedrins/Childress ahead of Allen?

[Moranis]

The worst part of the Fab Melo pick is that we could have rolled that draft pick over until 2016 when it lost it's lottery protection. Why did the Celtics feel like they had to get two picks in last years draft? It was a weak draft. Next year's draft is gonna be loaded and even though it's the Clipper pick, we could have gotten someone much better than Melo.

It wasn't a choice.  We had to take it the first year it wasn't protected, which was last year.

Bill Simmons keeps saying we had the option, I haven't heard that from anyone else in the media though.

Yes I heard him say that the other day but I'd call BS.  Hardly would be surprising that Bill Simmons would be completely wrong about something.

agreed -- no team in their right mind would allow another to have tha much control over their picks.  haven't seen a case where a team receiving a pick has the option to continue to roll it over until it's no longer lottery protected.  I've seen where a team as the option of exercizing the rights to a pick in one year or anothoer.  I belive this was what happened when we used 2 picks to get Joe Johnson and Kedrick Brown when we could have waited a year and used that pick to get someone really good in the Bron draft -- I think Carmelo was an option on that pick if I recall correctly.

It has happened where teams could choose.  As you mentioned, Boston had rights like that with Denver, where we could elect to roll the pick over.  We took it in the first year, the following year it was 5th and the year after was 3rd (that was Carmelo).

That said, this was not one of those situations.  The Clippers traded a protected pick to Oklahoma City for the rights to Eric Bledsoe on draft day of 2010.  The pick was top ten protected from 2012-15 and unprotected in 2016.  Since the pick was not in the top 10 in 2012, it had to be given to Boston (who acquired the lessor of the Clippers/Timberwolves 2012 pick from OKC in the Perkins/Green trade).

[clover]

Melo was high risk and high reward.   Any draft pick is a gamble.   I still think Ainge has found players in the draft for where he has drafted.

There is something to recognizing that if part of Danny's 'big wins' come from a high risk/high reward strategy, he is likely to have more busts than if he simply drafts safely.

[Moranis]

You'd take Biedrins/Childress ahead of Allen?

Yep.  I know Biedrins has tailed off, but he was basically a double double center for 3 years.  That has a lot more value and worth than a defensive guard.

Childress is a bit closer obviously as he left for Europe and has been pretty poor since he got back, but he was also much better than Allen at the start of their careers.  Pretty interesting question actually. 

In another year or two if they keep trending like they are, I'd take Allen over either, but at this point, I'm taking the guys with the higher peaks.