Poll

Your team is up by 3 with 10 seconds to go. Do you foul or play defense?

Foul them.
1 (20%)
Play defense.
4 (80%)

Total Members Voted: 5

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Author Topic: Basketball's Dilemma: Play or Foul?  (Read 1375 times)

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Basketball's Dilemma: Play or Foul?
« on: March 29, 2013, 10:14:10 PM »

Offline CelticConcourse

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It's always a case for debate!
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Re: Basketball's Dilemma: Play or Foul?
« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2013, 10:31:40 PM »

Offline ImShakHeIsShaq

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No dilemma for me, you play D... at worse you have OT b/c you're up 3. I mean, it isn't likely they get 1pt and rebound put-back for the win if you foul, EXCEPT we are the Celtics, we are terrible rebounders, we'd be the ones to give up that rebound put-back.
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Re: Basketball's Dilemma: Play or Foul?
« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2013, 10:55:52 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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My guess is that there exists some value x where you should foul if the player you foul has a free throw percentage worse than x.
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Re: Basketball's Dilemma: Play or Foul?
« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2013, 02:11:13 AM »

Offline ederson

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even if it`s calderon with the ball you foul...you don`t allow them to take a 3pointer. 10 secs is too long. they`ll have plenty of time to set screens and get a decent shot.
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Re: Basketball's Dilemma: Play or Foul?
« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2013, 07:12:34 AM »

Offline TBreezy

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Quote from: LooseCannon on March 29, 2013, 10:55:52 PM
My guess is that there exists some value x where you should foul if the player you foul has a free throw
percentage worse than x.

Khan academy answers a similar question.  3 or a quick 2?  It is essentially a function of the probability of scoring a three (3pct pct and defense) vs the probability of a two (2pt pct and defense). A similar model could be applied - adding a FT option.

We cannot really answer the question without knowing how good defensively the team is and how good  the other team shoots



http://www.khanacademy.org/science/lebron-asks/v/monte-carlo-simulation-to-answer-lebron-s-question
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