Poll

Your team is up by 3 with 10 seconds to go. Do you foul or play defense?

Foul them.
1 (20%)
Play defense.
4 (80%)

Total Members Voted: 5

« previous next »
Pages: [1]   Go Down

Author Topic: Basketball's Dilemma: Play or Foul?  (Read 1275 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

Basketball's Dilemma: Play or Foul?
« on: March 29, 2013, 10:14:10 PM »

Offline CelticConcourse

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6162
  • Tommy Points: 383
  • Jeff Green
It's always a case for debate!
Logged
Jeff Green - Top 5 SF

[Kevin Garnett]
"I've always said J. Green is going to be one of the best players to ever play this game"
Re: Basketball's Dilemma: Play or Foul?
« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2013, 10:31:40 PM »

Offline ImShakHeIsShaq

  • NCE
  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7739
  • Tommy Points: 804
No dilemma for me, you play D... at worse you have OT b/c you're up 3. I mean, it isn't likely they get 1pt and rebound put-back for the win if you foul, EXCEPT we are the Celtics, we are terrible rebounders, we'd be the ones to give up that rebound put-back.
Logged
It takes me 3hrs to get to Miami and 1hr to get to Orlando... but I *SPIT* on their NBA teams! "Bless God and bless the (Celts)"-Lady GaGa (she said gays but she really meant Celts)
Re: Basketball's Dilemma: Play or Foul?
« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2013, 10:55:52 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

  • NCE
  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11833
  • Tommy Points: 950
My guess is that there exists some value x where you should foul if the player you foul has a free throw percentage worse than x.
Logged
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
Re: Basketball's Dilemma: Play or Foul?
« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2013, 02:11:13 AM »

Offline ederson

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2896
  • Tommy Points: 279
even if it`s calderon with the ball you foul...you don`t allow them to take a 3pointer. 10 secs is too long. they`ll have plenty of time to set screens and get a decent shot.
Logged
Re: Basketball's Dilemma: Play or Foul?
« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2013, 07:12:34 AM »

Offline TBreezy

  • Derrick White
  • Posts: 272
  • Tommy Points: 23
Quote from: LooseCannon on March 29, 2013, 10:55:52 PM
My guess is that there exists some value x where you should foul if the player you foul has a free throw
percentage worse than x.

Khan academy answers a similar question.  3 or a quick 2?  It is essentially a function of the probability of scoring a three (3pct pct and defense) vs the probability of a two (2pt pct and defense). A similar model could be applied - adding a FT option.

We cannot really answer the question without knowing how good defensively the team is and how good  the other team shoots



http://www.khanacademy.org/science/lebron-asks/v/monte-carlo-simulation-to-answer-lebron-s-question
Logged
Pages: [1]   Go Up
« previous next »