Let's start with this belief: I do believe the Celtics (with current squad + healthy KG/Lee) are the ONLY team in the East who can defeat the cHeat in a 7-game series. Even without Rondo, I believe this to be true. Indy, NY, Brooklyn, and Atlanta do not stand a chance. Chicago, without a fully healthy Rose, does not stand a chance.
For the past two seasons, I have believed that facing the Heat in the first round would be best. We'd be healthier, more energetic, and heck they may even overlook us for a game or two. If we could steal a game or two, for whatever reason, we'd have a series.
A strength of the Celtics is that they fight and claw for every last inch, meaning we tend to overachieve in the playoffs.
A weakness of the Celtics is that they do not close teams out, meaning we tend to battle through multiple long series and overtime games.
So, yes, I do believe the Celtics best chance of beating the cHeat this season would be in the first round.
However, there is ONE HUGE PROBLEM with this strategy.
Problem: There is NO WAY IN HELL the League would allow the cHeat to lose in the first round of this year's playoffs. Not with them already having been crowned the greatest team ever. Not with them on the verge of becoming a dynasty (or has ESPN already labeled them a dynasty?).
I'm not calling it a full-on "conspiracy," but the cHeat will get the benefit of every single call x10 in this year's playoffs. It's going to take an other-worldly effort and a lot of luck to beat a team with their natural talent and the weight of the League behind them.
So, no, it's probably not best for the Cs to face the cHeat in the first round. The League won't let them win that series, even if the cHeat would.