I can't see Kelly going in the first round even in a weak draft. It's nice that he can shoot but bigs also have to be able to rebound and despite being a good defender in college, it's hard to see him being a good defender at the next level. He's just too limited to be a first rounder. I can't see Ainge selected him in the mid to late first round because he has a type in the first round--lengthy athletes and/or draft day sliders like Gerald Green and Sullinger--but I'd be p---ed if he takes Kelly in that range.
I disagree in a way.
He doesnt have the tools to be a dominant defender athleticism wise, but he has been showing effort in doing so. He's rotations on Duke is spot on, meaning he can pick up schemes on defense no problem. He hustles, challenges shots. Sure he can be out muscled but he aint giving up on plays.
He has the length to be bothersome on defense as well. Add his shooting, range and scoring ability in the pain (he has a very good touch underneath).
Of course we will not question his high character and high BBIQ. He knows when and where to pick spots. Doesn't play lazy.
He's really Bargnani with better defense. He's only real knack is his limited athleticism, in which if he had, he's surely top 5. And as an 8th man, a backup 4 who will play 15-20 minutes, he's a great pickup at the 15-30 range.
I don't watch the Raptors enough, but if it is true that Ryan Kelly is bargnani with better defense, this would go a long way in explaining why the Raptors are not a good team. And that is not meant s a compliment to Ryan Kelly.
Playing defense in the NBA is more than making good rotations. It's more than just being athletic. It's both. The players are incredibly strong and quick. They cover 10 feet in two steps, jump high, and are very physical. You have to be in the right place at the right time, but that requires a lot of quickness. Knowing where to be and getting there in time are two different things. Once you're in place, you have to be strong enough up hold your position against big men down low, or agile enough to affect a smaller player's shot without fouling. After your man shoots the ball, you then need to be quick enough and strong enough to fight for the rebound. If NBA scouts believed Kelly could do this, he would be talked about as maybe having end-of-the-lottery projection, especially in this draft. But he's not even in discussion for the first round, except on this message board.
Another concern is that he's only shooting 45% from inside the arc. As he's shooting 56% from three, that's quite troubling, as it means he's lacking the strength to finish inside at the college level, which is a major indicator that he doesn't have NBA strength.
Also, I feel that Kelly's 3-point numbers are a bit of a mirage this year. Firstly, he's had a 16-point jump from last year to this year. Secondly, compared to someone like Steve Novak, he doesn't shoot that many 3's, which probably means the offense he plays in helps him get better shots than similar players at other schools. For instance, Steve Novak took more 3's in his senior year than Ryan Kelly has in his entire collegiate career. Coach K is a great coach. If Ryan Kelly could shoot like Steve Novak, don't you think he'd try to get Kelly more shots?
