NBA GM's Rankings of Celtics

[sofutomygaha]

I read a Chicago writer come up with a statistical method that show the Chicago PG is the best defensive PG in the league.

A Chicago writer came up with a method that shows that if you are a PG and you go to Chicago and try to score, you will have a very hard time and that Derrick Rose is a big part of that. He also shows that you're in for a tougher time with Nash in front of you than you probably think.

I think you should have more respect for what the author tried to do. He took great care to point out the help-defense biases and limitations of his results. The discussion of Jameer Nelson, for example, also obviously applies to Rose, Rondo, and others.

Like I said before- quantifying defensive value is notoriously difficult because you can't just say that a guy is worth 1/5 of what his defense accomplishes, nor can you say that he is only worth what the player directly across from him accomplishes. The truth lies somewhere between this hollistic approach and a more isolating approach. Context is also a challenge, as the Nash ranking demonstrates.

Good quants will be the first to tell you that they can't tell you the whole story, but they can tell you something useful. Basketballvalue, Hollinger, Synergy, etc will all tell you what the numbers say and you can build an informed opinion based on interpretation thereof. The BR article isn't "wrong." It can't be "wrong;" it's just numbers.



My bottom line in all of this is just to point out that all signs point to Rondo being a substantially better team defender than Paul.

[wdleehi]

I read a Chicago writer come up with a statistical method that show the Chicago PG is the best defensive PG in the league.

A Chicago writer came up with a method that shows that if you are a PG and you go to Chicago and try to score, you will have a very hard time and that Derrick Rose is a big part of that. He also shows that you're in for a tougher time with Nash in front of you than you probably think.

I think you should have more respect for what the author tried to do. He took great care to point out the help-defense biases and limitations of his results. The discussion of Jameer Nelson, for example, also obviously applies to Rose, Rondo, and others.

Like I said before- quantifying defensive value is notoriously difficult because you can't just say that a guy is worth 1/5 of what his defense accomplishes, nor can you say that he is only worth what the player directly across from him accomplishes. The truth lies somewhere between this hollistic approach and a more isolating approach. Context is also a challenge, as the Nash ranking demonstrates.

Good quants will be the first to tell you that they can't tell you the whole story, but they can tell you something useful. Basketballvalue, Hollinger, Synergy, etc will all tell you what the numbers say and you can build an informed opinion based on interpretation thereof. The BR article isn't "wrong." It can't be "wrong;" it's just numbers.



My bottom line in all of this is just to point out that all signs point to Rondo being a substantially better team defender than Paul.

He did a great job coming up with a biased stat measure to prove his point.  Not always easy. 

[sofutomygaha]

It is biased to make Rose number 1.  Where any other PG lands after that doesn't matter. 

I'm not saying I agree that Rose is #1, but the Bulls had the best defense in the league for a long stretch. Surely Rose gets some of the credit for that.

[sofutomygaha]

He did a great job coming up with a biased stat measure to prove his point.  Not always easy.

ok I'm done. Carry on

[wdleehi]

It is biased to make Rose number 1.  Where any other PG lands after that doesn't matter. 

I'm not saying I agree that Rose is #1, but the Bulls had the best defense in the league for a long stretch. Surely Rose gets some of the credit for that.

I am not saying Rose is a bad defender.



I am saying that this is a Chicago writer that came up with a statistical method to name Rose the best defensive PG in the league.

And somehow Steve Nash is the 7th best. 


I know Steve Nash is not among the best defensive PGs in the league.  Any arguments?


Therefor, I can't take serious any of the rankings based on this method.


You are only as good as your worst number.

[BballTim]

So, this is a bleacher report... the usual disclaimers apply.

What is obvious from this methodology is that it is ranking team defense perhaps more than it is ranking individual defense. Still, it is an interesting read. The true defensive value of a player lies somewhere between this and the man-to-man eye test we all intuitively do

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/813678-nba-power-rankings-defensively-ranking-every-starting-point-guard-in-the-nba

Steve Nash, top 10 (7) defensive PG.


I think that alone makes me throw that list out.

  While you might not like the list, it's interesting to compare Rondo's synergy numbers from last year to this year. They're better across the board. From the numbers in that slide show, the best numbers in the league were:

overall PPP .78, iso PPP .64, opp fg% 37.1, score% 35.5

  Last year Rondo's numbers were:

overall PPP .74, iso PPP .58, opp fg% 34.6, score% 33.6

  So in all 4 categories he was well better than any pg in the league in the prior season. It's true that offensive play was worse in the strike year but by eyeballing the numbers Rondo (who was #2 on the list last year) would again be at or near the top.

  For pretty much every defensive metric that I check Rondo's at or near the top of the list every year. The other top point guards seem to vary, so the other point guard's metrics fluctuate between good and average/bad but Rondo's consistently good/great.

[Fafnir]

The funny thing about that Slideriffic article was that he put a GIANT wall of text on his no 1 page attempting to pre-empt any bias arguments.

Including some exposition on what ad hominem attacks are and that they're bad.

Not a strong way to make your argument.

[wdleehi]

So, this is a bleacher report... the usual disclaimers apply.

What is obvious from this methodology is that it is ranking team defense perhaps more than it is ranking individual defense. Still, it is an interesting read. The true defensive value of a player lies somewhere between this and the man-to-man eye test we all intuitively do

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/813678-nba-power-rankings-defensively-ranking-every-starting-point-guard-in-the-nba

Steve Nash, top 10 (7) defensive PG.


I think that alone makes me throw that list out.

  While you might not like the list, it's interesting to compare Rondo's synergy numbers from last year to this year. They're better across the board. From the numbers in that slide show, the best numbers in the league were:

overall PPP .78, iso PPP .64, opp fg% 37.1, score% 35.5

  Last year Rondo's numbers were:

overall PPP .74, iso PPP .58, opp fg% 34.6, score% 33.6

  So in all 4 categories he was well better than any pg in the league in the prior season. It's true that offensive play was worse in the strike year but by eyeballing the numbers Rondo (who was #2 on the list last year) would again be at or near the top.

  For pretty much every defensive metric that I check Rondo's at or near the top of the list every year. The other top point guards seem to vary, so the other point guard's metrics fluctuate between good and average/bad but Rondo's consistently good/great.

I would never argue against how good Rondo is defensively.



But his defense vs. Paul is not so different as to push him ahead of Paul as the best overall PG in the NBA. 

[BballTim]

So, this is a bleacher report... the usual disclaimers apply.

What is obvious from this methodology is that it is ranking team defense perhaps more than it is ranking individual defense. Still, it is an interesting read. The true defensive value of a player lies somewhere between this and the man-to-man eye test we all intuitively do

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/813678-nba-power-rankings-defensively-ranking-every-starting-point-guard-in-the-nba

Steve Nash, top 10 (7) defensive PG.


I think that alone makes me throw that list out.

  While you might not like the list, it's interesting to compare Rondo's synergy numbers from last year to this year. They're better across the board. From the numbers in that slide show, the best numbers in the league were:

overall PPP .78, iso PPP .64, opp fg% 37.1, score% 35.5

  Last year Rondo's numbers were:

overall PPP .74, iso PPP .58, opp fg% 34.6, score% 33.6

  So in all 4 categories he was well better than any pg in the league in the prior season. It's true that offensive play was worse in the strike year but by eyeballing the numbers Rondo (who was #2 on the list last year) would again be at or near the top.

  For pretty much every defensive metric that I check Rondo's at or near the top of the list every year. The other top point guards seem to vary, so the other point guard's metrics fluctuate between good and average/bad but Rondo's consistently good/great.

I would never argue against how good Rondo is defensively.



But his defense vs. Paul is not so different as to push him ahead of Paul as the best overall PG in the NBA.

  While I'm not specifically arguing Rondo vs Paul, two things you have to consider are role on the team and approach to the game. Consider that during the second half of the season and during the playoffs a lot of people said Rondo was playing like the best pg in the league and also that Doc was talking about how he gave Rondo more control of the team as the season progressed. Players like Paul have had that higher level of control for most of their careers. But ultimately I think that Rondo's preference to being a facilitator will work against him in the "best pg" lists.
 

[#1P4P]

Which team will win the Eastern Conference?

1. Miami -- 96.7%
2. Boston -- 3.3%

Last year: Miami -- 96.3%

Which team will win the Atlantic Division?

1. Boston -- 66.7%
2. Brooklyn and New York -- 13.3%
4. Philadelphia -- 6.7%

Last year: Boston -- 64.3%

Who is the best point guard in the NBA?

1. Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers -- 69.0%
2. Derrick Rose, Chicago -- 20.7%
3. Rajon Rondo, Boston -- 6.9%
4. Tony Parker, San Antonio -- 3.4%

Last year: Derrick Rose -- 59.3%

Who is the best power forward in the NBA?

1. Kevin Love, Minnesota -- 30.0%
2. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas -- 23.3%
3. LeBron James, Miami -- 16.7%
4. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland -- 10.0%
5. Kevin Garnett, Boston, and Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers -- 6.7%

Last year: Dirk Nowitzki -- 41.4%

What was the most underrated player acquisition?

1. Andre Iguodala, Denver -- 16.7%
2. Jason Terry, Boston -- 13.3%
3. Courtney Lee, Boston -- 10.0%
4. Ryan Anderson, New Orleans, Andrei Kirilenko, Minnesota, Brandon Roy, Minnesota, Lou Williams, Atlanta -- 6.7%

Also receiving votes: Ray Allen, Miami; Marcus Camby, New York; Gerald Green, Indiana; Grant Hill, L.A. Clippers; Chris Kaman, Dallas; Kyle Lowry, Toronto; O.J. Mayo, Dallas; Darko Milicic, Boston; Steve Nash, L.A. Lakers; Alexey Shved, Minnesota

Last year: Brandon Bass, David West -- 15.4%

What was the most surprising move of the offseason?

1. Steve Nash to the Lakers -- 39.3%
2. Bynum/Howard/Iguodala trade -- 17.9%
3. Knicks not matching Jeremy Lin offer -- 14.3%
4. Ray Allen to Miami, Joe Johnson to Brooklyn -- 10.7%

Also receiving votes: Jeff Green's contract, Luis Scola amnestied by Houston

Last year: Chris Paul to the Clippers -- 33.3%

Which rookie is most likely to be a "sleeper" success?

1. Jared Sullinger, Boston -- 17.2%
2. Maurice Harkless, Orlando, Andrew Nicholson, Orlando -- 13.8%
4. Jae Crowder, Dallas, Damian Lillard, Portland -- 10.3%
6. Terrence Jones, Houston -- 6.9%

Who is the best defensive player in the NBA?

1. Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers -- 60.0%
2. LeBron James, Miami -- 16.7%
3. Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City -- 13.3%

Also receiving votes: Tyson Chandler, New York; Kevin Garnett, Boston; Thabo Sefolosha, Oklahoma City

Last year: Dwight Howard -- 76.9%

Who is the best perimeter defender in the NBA?

1. Tony Allen, Memphis -- 33.3%
2. LeBron James, Miami -- 26.7%
3. Avery Bradley, Boston, Andre Iguodala, Denver, Rajon Rondo, Boston, Thabo Sefolosha, Oklahoma City -- 6.7%

Who is the best interior defender in the NBA?

1. Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers -- 66.7%
2. Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City -- 16.7%
3. Tyson Chandler, New York -- 10.0%

Also receiving votes: Anthony Davis, New Orleans; Kevin Garnett, Boston

Last year: Dwight Howard -- 88.9%

Which is the best defensive team in the NBA?

1. Chicago -- 40.0%
2. Miami -- 26.7%
3. Boston -- 23.3%
4. L.A. Lakers -- 6.7%
5. San Antonio -- 3.3%

Last year: Chicago -- 66.7%

Who is the best head coach in the NBA?

1. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio -- 80.0%
2. Doc Rivers, Boston -- 13.3%

Last year: Gregg Popovich -- 42.3%

Which head coach is the best manager/motivator of people?

1. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio -- 60.0%
2. Doc Rivers, Boston -- 40.0%

Last year: Gregg Popovich -- 42.9%

Which head coach makes the best in-game adjustments?

1. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio -- 40.0%
2. Rick Carlisle, Dallas -- 20.0%
3. Doug Collins, Philadelphia -- 13.3%
4. Rick Adelman, Minnesota -- 6.7%
5. George Karl, Denver -- 6.7%
6. Doc Rivers, Boston -- 6.7%

Which head coach has the best defensive schemes?

1. Tom Thibodeau, Chicago -- 70.0%
2. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio -- 10.0%
3. Mike Brown, L.A. Lakers, Rick Carlisle, Dallas -- 6.7%

Also receiving votes: Doc Rivers, Boston; Erik Spoelstra, Miami

Which player is the fastest with the ball?

1. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City -- 36.7%
2. Derrick Rose, Chicago -- 23.3%
3. Rajon Rondo, Boston -- 13.3%
4. Ty Lawson, Denver -- 6.7%, John Wall, Washington -- 6.7%

Which player is the best passer?

1. Steve Nash, L.A. Lakers -- 58.6%
2. Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers -- 27.6%
3. Rajon Rondo, Boston -- 6.9%, Deron Williams, Brooklyn -- 6.9%

Last year: Chris Paul -- 40.7%

Who is the toughest player in the NBA?

1. Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers -- 26.7%
2. Metta World Peace, L.A. Lakers -- 10.0%
3. Reggie Evans, Brooklyn -- 6.7%, Kenneth Faried, Denver -- 6.7%, Kevin Garnett, Boston -- 6.7%, LeBron James, Miami -- 6.7%, Rajon Rondo, Boston -- 6.7%

Which player is the best leader?

1. Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers -- 27.6%
2. Kevin Garnett, Boston -- 20.7%
3. Chauncey Billups, L.A. Clippers -- 10.3%, Tim Duncan, San Antonio -- 10.3%, LeBron James, Miami -- 10.3%, Steve Nash, L.A. Lakers -- 10.3%

Which player has the best basketball IQ?

1. Steve Nash, L.A. Lakers -- 27.6%
2. Tim Duncan, San Antonio -- 13.8%, LeBron James, Miami -- 13.8%, Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers -- 13.8%
5. Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers -- 10.3%
6. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio -- 6.9%

Also receiving votes: Chauncey Billups, L.A. Clippers; Pau Gasol, L.A. Lakers; Jason Kidd, New York; Rajon Rondo, Boston

http://www.nba.com/news/2012-13-gm-survey/index.html?rss=true

General managers were not permitted to vote for their own team or personnel.

Discuss...

[lightspeed5]

wonder who the 2 GMs who voted rondo as best PG... probably pat riley and someone else.

[fairweatherfan]

Who the heck voted Anthony Davis as the best interior defender in the league?  Waaaay too soon.

Pretty funny that we got more votes this season than last for Atlantic Division champs despite a much improved field.

[#1P4P]

Riley understands that the C's are the biggest threat in the East. The 29-1 vote isn't surprising; whatever the C's achieve against the Heat will have to be as the prohibitive underdog. The GM's understand that Terry and Lee are excellent acquisitions and Sullinger is a sleeper as a rookie. Good to see Avery already being recognized as one of the best defenders in the league.