Bosh might be the Heats starting center, so whats the possible line up?

[CelticHooligan3]

Playing Sullinger next to KG against Lebron is a nightmare for us if the heat got with a Bron/Bosh FC. Pierce likely guards LeBron, and Sully Battier, and we pray.

Defensively, it does indeed look nightmarish.  And for that reason alone I doubt we see it against the Heat.

But just for conversation - flip the question around.   On the other end of the court - how does Bron/Bosh defend an FC of KG/Sully?

Lebron can defend PFs, including in the post.  He played excellent defense on David West in the playoffs.

Watch him on Pau Gasol:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AV3O94yv4vc

There's a longer highlight of this floating around somewhere, basically showing every defensive possession of the game.  Lebron shut down one of the most talented 7-footers in the NBA.

I honestly don't think that Lebron would have trouble with Sullinger; he's going to play elite defense against most PFs.

As IP suggested, I think the best front line against Miami's small lineup is KG/Green.  We'll be weak on the boards and in the post, but it's our best shot at limiting Lebron.

This is when Lebron is fronting Gasol, preventing him from getting the ball. How about when Gasol actually has the ball?

A big strong guy pushes a guy not in his weight class out of position. Its nice, but it doesn't amaze me. Part of the reason I don't like ESPN, they overhype everything

If Lebron can actually defend Gasol, Howard, or any 7 footer for a full 48 minutes and defend them when they have the ball in their hands, then it'll be awesome to watch

Completely agree with this. Well said Osirus. tp.

Well, you guys are both wrong then.

First, Lebron and Gasol are very similar in weight; I'm not sure where folks are getting that Gasol is some sort of rail-thin, shorter version of Shawn Bradley.  The guy has some bulk to him.

Second, in the game shown, Pau shot 4-for-10 and scored 11 points in 36 minutes.

Pau Gasol is one of the best big men in the league.  The fact that Lebron has shown that he can defend him well (along with other bigs, like David West) suggests that Lebron has little trouble guarding the PF position, and will have almost no trouble at all guarding our PFs.  Neither Green nor Bass is going to punish Lebron when he's guarding them.

Maybe i'm wrong then i guess. I wasn't aware he was effective guarding 4's that often. I was under the impression he would stay on them if he was caught up in a switch. But that was about it.

[Roy H.]

Maybe i'm wrong then i guess. I wasn't aware he was effective guarding 4's that often. I was under the impression he would stay on them if he was caught up in a switch. But that was about it.

No, Lebron played a lot of PF last year.  In fact, he played 24% of Miami's minutes there.  During that time, the Heat defense was just as good as it was with Lebron playing SF.  However, the offense improved dramatically.

Lebron held opposing PFs to 44% shooting last year.  He outrebounded them, and he more than doubled their scoring output. 

In the playoffs, 7 of Miami's top 8 units featured Lebron as a PF.

[arambone]

Playing Sullinger next to KG against Lebron is a nightmare for us if the heat got with a Bron/Bosh FC. Pierce likely guards LeBron, and Sully Battier, and we pray.

Defensively, it does indeed look nightmarish.  And for that reason alone I doubt we see it against the Heat.

But just for conversation - flip the question around.   On the other end of the court - how does Bron/Bosh defend an FC of KG/Sully?

Lebron can defend PFs, including in the post.  He played excellent defense on David West in the playoffs.

Watch him on Pau Gasol:
... snip ...

There's a longer highlight of this floating around somewhere, basically showing every defensive possession of the game.  Lebron shut down one of the most talented 7-footers in the NBA.

I honestly don't think that Lebron would have trouble with Sullinger; he's going to play elite defense against most PFs.

As IP suggested, I think the best front line against Miami's small lineup is KG/Green.  We'll be weak on the boards and in the post, but it's our best shot at limiting Lebron.

Well, that's not the most relevant comparison.  Lebron outweighs Gasol by 20lb and could push him around.

Sully outweighs Lebron by almost 30lbs -that's a ~50lb difference between Sully and Gasol!.   Also, Sully is the same height (actually a 1/2 inch taller w/o shoes) and has slightly longer arms than Lebron.   He's also got very different style of post moves compared to Gasol.

Gasol's post-up game is based on his having a height advantage over his defender.  Once he's got the ball in close, he simply goes vertical and shoots casually over people. Lebron's defense of him was simple:  Push Gasol around and keep him from ever getting the ball.  Gasol could never get the position or space he wanted because he could not move Lebron and instead got moved by him.

Sully's game is not based on being tall - it is based on his strength, footwork, long arms and velcro hands.  And he is virtually immovable when he's set.  And he's similarly difficult to hold the block on.   He's best defended by defenders who are both tall enough to keep him from hooking those long arms out, up and over and also heavy enough that Sully doesn't bounce them away with that butt of his.  And they also have to be smart enough to not fall for his fakes because he turns and goes under tall defenders who over commit.   In college and in the SL, Sully has only really had trouble when teams double team him with two bigs.  Simple enough and very effective.  But that won't happen when he's on the floor with KG.

Now, Sullinger is a rookie.  Put him out there tomorrow against Lebron and he'd probably get eaten alive.  But let's see what he looks like next spring, with a year of professional training & experience.

I don't know how that will turn out.  I just find it interesting to think about.

You're drastically underestimating Gasol in a variety of areas, including his weight.  According to NBA.com, Lebron and Gasol are both 250 pounds, and Sullinger is 260.

I think it's a bit much to think Sullinger is even in the same ballpark right now as proven post scorers like Pau Gasol and David West.

Roy, I've noticed this summer that the NBA.com weights listed are not particularly reliable. It's like they just take the weights listed in college and type them in. I recall looking at a couple rookies and NBA.com didn't consult the NBA Combine measurements.

If I recall correctly, Sullinger weighed 260 at the beginning of last season, but measured 267 at the Combine. His playing weight as a freshman was about 280, and many say that he played better with that extra weight.

I'm not sure what Sullinger's goals are weight-wise for this offseason, and I'm not sure how his body will develop naturally strength-wise.

My guess is that Sullinger comes into camp at about 270, which will include newly added strength. Not a stretch to say he redistributes some weight and gets told by his coaches how best to prepare for his new role with the Celtics.

Most big men gain a lot of strength in their early 20's. Even Shaq and Big Baby.

Unless LeBron secretly weighs 260, which wouldn't surprise me, I expect Sully to have a solid 20 pound advantage on him, especially by the playoffs.

Crazy to think that Sully is still just a baby, considering he probably was good enough to have earned NBA minutes right out of high school.

[arambone]

I'm sure we'll see some of this with Sullinger, but remember that he is an inch taller than BBD, with a higher vertical leap. However, I'm not sure that Sully is as quick as BBD

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTfBrtjmvNU

[indeedproceed]

Also, Lebron has grown at least an inch since his predraft 'no shoes' measure. I've also seen his weight guessed anywhere from 260 to 280. The Karl Malone 'Greek god' comparisons are very accurate.

[arambone]

Also, Lebron has grown at least an inch since his predraft 'no shoes' measure. I've also seen his weight guessed anywhere from 260 to 280. The Karl Malone 'Greek god' comparisons are very accurate.

270 wouldnt shock me. Sully having a bit of success against him wouldnt surprise either. Especially once lebron gets into foul trouble.

Unfortunately, the style sully will be most successful with is also the style that will be worst for his back.

[mmmmm]

Roy, I've noticed this summer that the NBA.com weights listed are not particularly reliable. It's like they just take the weights listed in college and type them in. I recall looking at a couple rookies and NBA.com didn't consult the NBA Combine measurements.

The following article is a hoot on this subject.  It focuses mainly on the foibles of MLB listed player weights, but in each case offers the comparisons to NBA players of similar 'listed' weights.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15899

One has to take 'official' player listed numbers with a huge grain of salt.

[bfrombleacher]

Is the solution Pierce and JG playing full time 4? We can deal with Bosh since we have KG and Wilcox.

What's nice is we have Jet, AB, Rondo, Courtney Lee and Dooling to fill up 1, 2 and 3. James Jones, Ray Allen and Battier can all be easily neutralized by our pseudo-small forwards.

[mmmmm]

Maybe i'm wrong then i guess. I wasn't aware he was effective guarding 4's that often. I was under the impression he would stay on them if he was caught up in a switch. But that was about it.

No, Lebron played a lot of PF last year.  In fact, he played 24% of Miami's minutes there.  During that time, the Heat defense was just as good as it was with Lebron playing SF.  However, the offense improved dramatically.

Lebron held opposing PFs to 44% shooting last year.  He outrebounded them, and he more than doubled their scoring output. 

In the playoffs, 7 of Miami's top 8 units featured Lebron as a PF.

Well, if you actually look a little closer at that, its not as impressive as it sounds.  In the regular season they still played Lebron primarily in their main 5-man unit (some 517 minutes) at SF.  The next most used 5-man unit with Lebron in it was only used 131 minutes (also with Lebron at SF).  So the various units with Lebron at PF were basically situational units.

For example, one of Miami's top unit by net rating (+28.42!!!!!!!!) was one of their best units with Lebron at PF.  They played that particular unit (Cole+Battier+Miller+Lebron+Haslem) for 77.7 minutes - the most of any unit with Lebron at PF.   

But wait?  No Wade?  No Bosh?  Right away you detect that, yes, this is a second-string unit.   Playing second-string opposition.

And if you look at the opposition that unit faced:

http://basketballvalue.com/amofunit.php?year=2011-2012&unit=977-198-209-260-201

You see that it included such fearsome foes at PF as Jared Jeffries, Taj Gibson, Glen Davis, Luke Harangody and such.

An examination of the opposition faced by the other units that had Lebron at PF shows that most of the minutes were similarly during bench time.  Not always, of course.  But the vast majority of Lebron's PF minutes were against second-string PFs.

No shame in that at all.  And it makes perfect sense given the nature of Miami's bench.

But it means you shouldn't put too much stock in those positional performance numbers.  Don't discard them.  Just understand where they came from.

[arambone]

http://espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/story/_/id/8375877/miami-heat-chris-bosh-willing-reconsider-playing-center

Chris Bosh willing to play center

The 6-foot-11, 235-pound power forward said he was reluctant to make the change after dabbling at center in his time with the Toronto Raptors. Teammate LeBron James also initially shied away from playing down low, as well as being labeled as a point guard, with the Heat, preferring the comfort zone of small forward.

C's just gotta be more physical, and remember to use the Perk force.

[perks-a-beast]

I predict the Heats playoff rotation to look something like this...

Chalmers (30)       Wade (10)       Cole 8

Wade (26)             Allen (22)

James (22)            Battier (20)      Allen 6

Haslem (20)          James (20)      Battier8

Bosh (40)              Haslem 8

[Roy H.]

Maybe i'm wrong then i guess. I wasn't aware he was effective guarding 4's that often. I was under the impression he would stay on them if he was caught up in a switch. But that was about it.

No, Lebron played a lot of PF last year.  In fact, he played 24% of Miami's minutes there.  During that time, the Heat defense was just as good as it was with Lebron playing SF.  However, the offense improved dramatically.

Lebron held opposing PFs to 44% shooting last year.  He outrebounded them, and he more than doubled their scoring output. 

In the playoffs, 7 of Miami's top 8 units featured Lebron as a PF.

Well, if you actually look a little closer at that, its not as impressive as it sounds.  In the regular season they still played Lebron primarily in their main 5-man unit (some 517 minutes) at SF.  The next most used 5-man unit with Lebron in it was only used 131 minutes (also with Lebron at SF).  So the various units with Lebron at PF were basically situational units.

For example, one of Miami's top unit by net rating (+28.42!!!!!!!!) was one of their best units with Lebron at PF.  They played that particular unit (Cole+Battier+Miller+Lebron+Haslem) for 77.7 minutes - the most of any unit with Lebron at PF.   

But wait?  No Wade?  No Bosh?  Right away you detect that, yes, this is a second-string unit.   Playing second-string opposition.

And if you look at the opposition that unit faced:

http://basketballvalue.com/amofunit.php?year=2011-2012&unit=977-198-209-260-201

You see that it included such fearsome foes at PF as Jared Jeffries, Taj Gibson, Glen Davis, Luke Harangody and such.

An examination of the opposition faced by the other units that had Lebron at PF shows that most of the minutes were similarly during bench time.  Not always, of course.  But the vast majority of Lebron's PF minutes were against second-string PFs.

No shame in that at all.  And it makes perfect sense given the nature of Miami's bench.

But it means you shouldn't put too much stock in those positional performance numbers.  Don't discard them.  Just understand where they came from.

So, over the regular season, Lebron dominated bench players and some starters.  Then, in the playoffs, he dominated all-star caliber players at the position.

That pretty much goes back to my first post in the thread:  Lebron should play mostly SF during the regular season to keep him fresh, and then in the playoffs he should be the full-time PF.  That's what happened last year, and that's the situation that few teams have an answer for.

Also, of course, I'd put Sullinger into the same class of player as those that Lebron dominated last year.  It's unrealistic to expect him to be anything other than a "first big off the bench" type of player next season, especially if facing Miami in the playoffs.

There's no need to get gimmicky.  If we match up with Miami, it will be Green who gets that assignment.  Whether he can slow Lebron down offensively and limit him on the boards will go a long way in determining our success level.

[CelticG1]

Lebron playing PF doesn't change anything against us. At least not for worse.

We will just slide Green or Pierce to that PF position so he will be defended the same and use our distinct and abundant advantage that we should have with our backcourt players.

[mmmmm]

So, over the regular season, Lebron dominated bench players and some starters.  Then, in the playoffs, he dominated all-star caliber players at the position.

That pretty much goes back to my first post in the thread:  Lebron should play mostly SF during the regular season to keep him fresh, and then in the playoffs he should be the full-time PF.  That's what happened last year, and that's the situation that few teams have an answer for.

Also, of course, I'd put Sullinger into the same class of player as those that Lebron dominated last year.  It's unrealistic to expect him to be anything other than a "first big off the bench" type of player next season, especially if facing Miami in the playoffs.

There's no need to get gimmicky.  If we match up with Miami, it will be Green who gets that assignment.  Whether he can slow Lebron down offensively and limit him on the boards will go a long way in determining our success level.

I totally concur with that last paragraph.  As I've said, I was only raising the Sully question up as an interesting discussion point.

I did some looking into the playoff matchup numbers.  What you say about Lebron's performance at PF was for the most part true in the OKC series - the MIA units with Lebron at PF did very well against them.  In those matchups he was usually squared against Ibaka, but also a lot against Durant (who also was sliding over to PF).

I find it interesting though, that those lineups, with Lebron at PF and Bosh at C did NOT do particularly well against Boston when KG or Stiemsma were at C.  Similarly, they struggled a bit against NYK with Chandler at the 5.

The minute samples are small, of course, so I again caution not to read too much into it, but if you look at the opposition units for Chalmers+Wade+Battier+James+Bosh (their main 5-man unit), sorted by team:

http://basketballvalue.com/amofunit.php?year=2012%20playoffs&unit=773-204-198-260-319&sortnumber=1&sortorder=ASC

and look at the ones in red, the common theme seems to be the presence of a true 7 footer who can play defense at the 5.

Clearly, we need to focus on our _other_ rookie:

FAB -  GET GOOD QUICK, DUDE!!! WE NEED YOU! 

LOL!

[arambone]

I predict the Heats playoff rotation to look something like this...

Chalmers (30)       Wade (10)       Cole 8

Wade (26)             Allen (22)

James (22)            Battier (20)      Allen 6

Haslem (20)          James (20)      Battier8

Bosh (40)              Haslem 8

the heat are vulnerable. Chicago looked as good as anyone before rose went down. Their size, rebounding, and nastiness down low was a big part of that.

In a 7 game series, the heat can be worn down with bosh at 5 and james at 4, especially if c's dont play them til ecf.

Bosh at center indefinitely is a joke. He weighs 10 pounds more than jjj.

Theres a reason bosh was so reluctant to play there.

Heat got their ring, but their invincibility is greatly overstated.