State of the Celtics' Big Rotation

[Vermont Green]

I am assuming that what we see is what we will get for bigs, at least to start the season.  I am really happy that we signed Jason Collins.  I think he is going to play some important minutes and is probably the only one who will be able to let KG play PF.

My expectations for Wilcox are not that high.  Historically he has better production relative to opponent at PF than at C.  Last year for the Celtics per 48 points, he was -1 as a PF and -8 as a C.  Most of his best 5 man units (most positive points +/-) happened when KG was also on the court.  Individually, it does not appear that he moved the needle all that much, he just rose or fell with the tide.  Based on all of this, I see him ending up being depth at 4 behind Bass, Green, and maybe evenutally Sullinger.

So that leaves us with KG playing most of the C minutes and with Collins getting maybe 12-16 minutes.  The Celtics will also likely play some without either KG or Collins in some small ball units so this may be enough as KG rarely gets into foul trouble.  If Melo develops, he would likely take minutes away from Collins and Wilcox (KG at 4).  If he really surprises, it may make it easier to consider a trade of someone like Bass but I don't view it as likely that he plays well enough to be a regular rotation guy.

I am not worried that this is a weakness or problem but I do feel we are at our best when KG can play PF along side a decent center.  Unless Sullinger really surprises, most of our PF minutes will be Bass and Green.  KG at PF is certainly an upgrade over either of these options but the someone playing center will likely be a downgrade over KG at C.  I don't see Melo playing well enough that he would be able to take minutes from Bass or Green following this indirect relationship.

I would be very willing to trade some worthwhile assets (Bass, Bradley, one of the rookies) for a legit starting center, to allow KG to play PF but I don't see it happening.

[lightspeed5]

youre wlling to trade some great power forwards for a slow lumbering no-name center, a center that isnt needed in a league where 90% of teams play a power forward at center now?

we have kg, who was a top 5 center last year, and we have 3 power forwards to play power forward. why do we need another center?

[Vermont Green]

youre wlling to trade some great power forwards for a slow lumbering no-name center, a center that isnt needed in a league where 90% of teams play a power forward at center now?

we have kg, who was a top 5 center last year, and we have 3 power forwards to play power forward. why do we need another center?

I think my exact words were "legit starting center", not "lumbering no-name center" but the point is that our current corps of PF include Bass who legit as a starter but in the lower tier starting PF league-wide, Green, who at PF is out of position, Wilcox, who doesn't do much, and a rookie who still has much to prove (not exactly great in my opinion).

It is not KG at center that is the weakness, it is Bass and Green at PF.  If we can play KG at PF along side a C who is at least as good as Bass relative to the competition, then we are better off overall in my opinion.

[LooseCannon]

Starting out, I could see the Celtics going with KG in the usual 5-5-5 pattern.  Jason Collins starting, but only playing about 15mpg.

So, you start with Garnett/Collins.  Garnett sits after five minutes and you bring in Bass.  You might also bring in Wilcox at the same time, or you might wait a few minutes than sub in Wilcox for Collins.  When KG comes back, you get Bass/Garnett as your front line.  Bass sits and Collins comes back.  Garnett sits and Wilcox comes back.  Bass replaces Collins.  Garnett replaces Wilcox.

So, it might look like:

1st quarter
0-5 Garnett, Collins
5-10 Bass, Collins/Wilcox/Green
10-12 Bass, Garnett
2nd quarter
0-3 Garnett, Collins/Wilcox/Green
3-5 Two out of Collins/Wilcox/Green
5-7 Bass, Collins/Wilcox/Green
7-12 Bass, Garnett

It obviously depends on matchups, foul trouble, when timeouts are called, etc., but that is how I could see the rotation going.  Repeat the same pattern in the second half.

The way Doc has played rookies, I could see Sullinger or Melo being given occasional minutes listed as Collins or Wilcox at the beginning of the second quarter.  If they don't screw up on defense, they may earn more than a couple minutes in the first half and some additional minutes in the second half.  If they do screw up on defense, no amount of good on offense will earn them more playing time.

I see Collins as a depth guy who they can have start out the season as the nominal starter and end the season as a guy who racks up DNPs unless the opposing team makes it impossible to play smallball.

[lightspeed5]

Starting out, I could see the Celtics going with KG in the usual 5-5-5 pattern.  Jason Collins starting, but only playing about 15mpg.

So, you start with Garnett/Collins.  Garnett sits after five minutes and you bring in Bass.  You might also bring in Wilcox at the same time, or you might wait a few minutes than sub in Wilcox for Collins.  When KG comes back, you get Bass/Garnett as your front line.  Bass sits and Collins comes back.  Garnett sits and Wilcox comes back.  Bass replaces Collins.  Garnett replaces Wilcox.

So, it might look like:

1st quarter
0-5 Garnett, Collins
5-10 Bass, Collins/Wilcox/Green
10-12 Bass, Garnett
2nd quarter
0-3 Garnett, Collins/Wilcox/Green
3-5 Two out of Collins/Wilcox/Green
5-7 Bass, Collins/Wilcox/Green
7-12 Bass, Garnett

It obviously depends on matchups, foul trouble, when timeouts are called, etc., but that is how I could see the rotation going.  Repeat the same pattern in the second half.

The way Doc has played rookies, I could see Sullinger or Melo being given occasional minutes listed as Collins or Wilcox at the beginning of the second quarter.  If they don't screw up on defense, they may earn more than a couple minutes in the first half and some additional minutes in the second half.  If they do screw up on defense, no amount of good on offense will earn them more playing time.

I see Collins as a depth guy who they can have start out the season as the nominal starter and end the season as a guy who racks up DNPs unless the opposing team makes it impossible to play smallball.

collins will not start. KG is the starting center. bass and/or green will start. collins will be lucky to play backup minutes.

[arambone]

"collins will be lucky to play backup minutes."

You're GD right.

[SHAQATTACK]

I thought Fab was starting ...didn't we have a thread and all....LoL 

[arambone]

we also had threads about melo being a big stiff with no instincts, athleticism, passing, or shooting touch.

Then people saw him play. Then people will watch him show up even better and stronger for training camp.
Then people will watch him get even better over the course of the season.

People will be shocked, Shocked! at each improvement he makes, and wonder how a young big man could possibly improve.

Sullinger could start right away. Melo could start by the end of the year depending on the match up.

Sully, kg, bass, and green are all starting caliber bigs. Melo will join them at starter level with just a little more experience and the muscle he is adding right now.

Other than kg, i think the other starter will depend on that night's matchup.

I dont see bass starting over sully or melo vs the lakers, for example.

[arambone]

duplicate

[Surferdad]

Without a minute of NBA experience, it is highly speculative to say that Sully or Melo are starting caliber players now or any time this season.  Just put that thought away please.

The rotation is Green, Bass, KG, Wilcox, with the likely starters being same as last year: KG and Bass.  Collins gets only spot minutes and selected specialty roles depending on matchups.  Sully gets some spot minutes but has to prove he deserves any more.  Melo spends the year in Portland.

IMO, this all adds up to the C's being short one big, a center, someone like Collins but more talented.  I don't buy into this new popular theory that you don't need legit 7 footers anymore in the NBA.

[Vermont Green]

"collins will be lucky to play backup minutes."

You're GD right.

There is nothing surprising about this statement.  Collins has not played more than 12-16 minutes (what I consider as back up minutes) in years.

Those can be very valuable 12-16 minutes though when the only other proven center we have is Garnett.  Melo may be something but he certainly hasn't proven anything yet.

[arambone]

"it is highly speculative to say that Sully or Melo are starting caliber players now or any time this season.  Just put that thought away please."

Heinsohn: 'Sullinger is a perfect fit for what Danny wanted'
http://www.csnne.com/sportsnetNewEngland/search/v/58405670/heinsohn-sullinger-is-a-perfect-fit-for-what-danny-wanted.htm

I agree Tommy, I agree. Just like with Avery Bradley.

Sully is a better version of Big Baby, a better rebounder, and a better low post scorer. Just what we need.

A better version of Big Baby gives Brandon Bass a serious run for his money, because we need Sully's toughness and post game more than the starting 5 needs Bass' slightly better jump shot.

If Sully wasn't smart, patient, and extremely efficient, it would be another typical rookie scenario of wait 'til next year.

I guess it all depends on Garnett's ability to still guard power forwards. I wouldn't bet against it.

[LooseCannon]

Without a minute of NBA experience, it is highly speculative to say that Sully or Melo are starting caliber players now or any time this season.  Just put that thought away please.

Do you consider that to be a blanket statement that covers every player without a minute of NBA experience?

[gar]

Wilcox can run better than any big we have. He has the best chemistry with Rondo of any big other than KG. Of course we are all hoping that Green can come up big; but for me Wilcox kind of stole some of Green's "thunder".

Anyway hoping both Green and Wilcox can play a big role in helping this team run with the rest of the league. If match up require it KG can play center; but hoping Wilcox can fill that role until we can land a real center. Unfortunately the Howard trade put a major kink in the C's plans.

[Surferdad]

Without a minute of NBA experience, it is highly speculative to say that Sully or Melo are starting caliber players now or any time this season.  Just put that thought away please.

Do you consider that to be a blanket statement that covers every player without a minute of NBA experience?

No of course not.  Why do people get up in a lather about this?  If either were lottery picks (for example) then I would have not made the statement.  The question really is why anyone would think either of them ARE regular rotation material?  We have no evidence whatsoever.