Quick strategy, and if you have any questions, likely won't see them until tonight:

The way I see it:
Paul>Holiday
Wade<Matthews
Pierce>Granger

Those three likely won't change. Holiday isn't a bad choice to defend Chris Paul, but there really aren't any 'good' choices out there. Jarrett Jack also seems to do okay against Chris Paul. 

Dwyane Wade owns Wes Matthews, you're talking like a 20 pt differential. 

Paul Pierce is the better player than Granger, but Granger plays him tough. I'm not ready to call this a neutral kind of situation, but really there isnt a huge advantage here for Chicago, or a huge disadvantage here for Detroit. 

The perimeter story is pretty well written there. The backups are Landry Fields and Luke Ridnour basically vs Jarrett Jack. Fields can't defend Wade though, so I think this is a winner in the reserves for Chicago. 

 Parsons is the better player over Fields, but meh. Not a game changer for either side for me. Fields can't defend Pierce and Parsons can't defend Granger in a manner that makes either team better. 

The post is a little more tricky. Bosh can score on Nene, while Nene can also score on Bosh, and unlike with previous matchups, Nene is an extremely gifted and physical post scorer, which doesn't play to Boshs strengths. 

But Bosh does own Ilyasova. 

So with that in mind, here is my tentative lineups, with some notes:

Holiday/Jack
Wade/Jack
Pierce/Parsons
Bosh/Young/Parsons
Haywood/Splitter/Bosh

-Holiday will take most of the minutes vs Paul.
-Bosh won't play center much vs Nene
-When Nene is in the game, Haywood and Splitter will split time on him. Haywood has defended Nene very well including last season, and Splitter is physical enough to bother Nene, and offensively good enough not to allow Nene to help off him in the P&R. 

When Nene is not in the game, Bosh will play as many minutes at center as I can get him. 

Young plays Ilyasova very well, it's a win for me. 

So basically I'm letting Holiday take Paul as much as he can handle, hoping his athleticism and length keep him at the career averages of 19 and 6. 

I'm relying heavily on Wade and Bosh to create a lot of points over their sizable mismatches, and allowing Haywood and Splitter to minimize Nene. Haywood especially should keep ol Nene under 10 ppg.

I think again that D'Antoni would use Granger as his backup PF. Natural match up for Thadeus Young playing at the 4 spot.

The post is a little more tricky. Bosh can score on Nene, while Nene can also score on Bosh, and unlike with previous matchups, Nene is an extremely gifted and physical post scorer, which doesn't play to Boshs strengths.

Marc Gasol is a much more dangerous post scorer vs Chris Bosh than Nene is.

Bulls (i think), too much star power the way I see it. Paul is great, but not enough.

Quote from: IndeedProceed on August 16, 2012, 09:03:02 AM

Jarrett Jack also seems to do okay against Chris Paul.

I think Jack would struggle against CP3. Too slow.

Thats also how I would see it, but after looking at the numbers where Jack is clearly starting or playing big minutes, it's just 'meh'.

If I'm Detroit, I run pick and roll/pop the entire series.  You can trust Paul to make the right decision, whether that getting it inside to Nene, popping it to Ilyasova for a jumper, or taking the big switched on to his one on one.

Chicago, it's clear that Splitter is going to be your first big off the bench.  I can see him playing 25-30 minutes a game.  If Detroit starts to Hack-a-Splitter, do you play Bosh and Haywood more with the risk of running them into the ground?

I think again that D'Antoni would use Granger as his backup PF. Natural match up for Thadeus Young playing at the 4 spot.

I'm toying with the idea of going with Paul, Wes, Fields/Buds at SF, Granger/Ersan at PF, and Nene/Amir at C for extended minutes in this series. Speed things up as much as possible.

Historically, Pierce has had some big games against Granger. I wonder how much of that is because Pierce gets up for Pacer games, and how much is on Granger.

Can Granger defend Bosh at PF?