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2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« on: August 13, 2012, 12:34:11 PM »

Offline Kane3387

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I think the Celtics win this series in 5 games and here is why.

The argument can be made that by the first round of the playoffs next season this Celtic's team will have the three best players in the series on their team.

Washington's best player by far is Pau Gasol. Pau Gasol has already peaked. At best the most you can hope for is that Gasol maintains his level of play next season. He is 32 years old. He will be 33 years old next season. Players who turn 33 tend to see their games decline.

The trio of Russell Westbrook, Blake Griffin, and Marc Gasol are all 27 or younger. While Marc Gasol is 27 and thus entering his prime he is still only entering the his fifth NBA season. This still makes him relatively young in NBA experience. Blake Griffin and Russell Westbrook are each going to be only 24 years old by playoff time next season. Each of these players are the most athletically gifted player in the world presently for their respective position and both are only getting better.

Thus when analyzing this matchup it is easy to see that the abilities of my Big Three will be greater this coming season then at any other point in their careers where as Pau Gasol, Washington's best player, will either stay the same or actually see his abilities decrease.


http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=gasolma01&y1=2012&p2=gasolpa01&y2=2012&p3=griffbl01&y3=2012

Pau and Marc's Win Share total were basically identical. Griffins was higher. Pau was better at Ast% but his block % was roughly half of his brothers.

Pau had an Ortg of 112, Drtg of 103 and TS% of .547. Marc had an Ortg of 111, Drtg of 99 and TS% of .541. Blake had an Ortg of 113, Drtg of 104 and TS% of .557. Overall Griffin's numbers were greater and Marcs were right on par with Pau. Pau averaged more points but he also shot the ball three times more per game then Marc. Marc is much better at defending the rim then his brother.

« Last Edit: August 13, 2012, 12:46:34 PM by Kane3387 »


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Re: 2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2012, 12:35:19 PM »

Offline Kane3387

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I think it is fair to say that both teams have questions about fit. I get that. But such has been the case with many teams. There were questions about Kobe, Gasol, and Bynum. About Westbrook and Durant. About Wade and Lebron. Fact is superior talent normally wins out against inferior talent. All those teams lost to teams with either greater talent or teams with great talent and superior fit.

Washington is neither a team with great talent or fit. There are questions about how well Marcin Gortat can play without Steve Nash. How well can he play with Pau Gasol? Pau is much better as a Center then a PF. In this game he plays PF next to a Center he is better then. Gortat's lack of a jumpshot or offensive game doesn't compliment Pau any better then Andrew Bynum did. Gortat is a pick and roll scorer who is crafty with finishing layups. He also relies on his activity to get easy buckets. Something that will be difficult against my interior bigs.

And don't get me wrong. Gortat and Pau are not bums. See above previously about how Gasol is right there with his brother and Blake. They will play at a high level against my two bigs. With production possibly being equal. But then that is where the big issue for Washington really shows up in Russell Westbrook. I minimize Washington's greatest strength without using possibly my own. There isn't a player on this team that can defend Westbrook. Curry too small and fragile. Billups too old and slow. Smith too undisciplined. Nelson and Williams too small. Westbrook will do whatever he wants whenever he wants offensively. In addition to the all the energy Washington's point guards will expend on defense to sap some of their offensive strength Russell's physical perimeter defense will be on display making life miserable for Williams, Curry, Billups, and Nelson.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2012, 12:49:34 PM by Kane3387 »


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Re: 2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2012, 12:37:33 PM »

Offline Kane3387

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I also believe that Washington' style of play really helps us in doing what we want to do from a transition standpoint. The Celtics want to get out and run with Russell and Blake as much as possible. Throw in Gerald Green also when he is in there. The fact that Washington is full of chuckers provides Boston with a lot of opportunities to get rebounds off missed jump shots and get out on the fast break. Marc and Blake are excellent rebounders and Marc an excellent outlet passer. For a guard Russell is one of the elite rebounders. Their rebounding ability is crucial because it allows for us to corral missed shots and attack. Especially for Russ who can eliminate the need for an outlet pass when he gets his own board and initiates the break.

Washington overall is not an athletic team. None of there bigs can run with Griffin and none of their guards can stop Westbrook. The Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder both proved that a running team with great athletes can win in the playoffs.


The pick and roll is going to destroy this team. Russell destroyed LAL in the playoffs with the pick and roll because LAL's point guards struggled to fight through screens. All of Washington's guards will struggle in this regard.

You will see Gortat or Gasol matched up on Westbrook several times at the top of the free throw line circle. As a result they will play off 99% of the time. Russell for 15-18 ft is money. Russ can actually blow by to the hoop as the screen roll takes place.

He can hit Marc and Blake on cuts to the basket, throw lobs to Blake and hit Marc for the little jumper. And hit either one in the post when the guard switches.

Washington's backcourt is very susceptible to this b/c of their size and lack of defensive ability.

It's a very simple strategy but it is also very effective due to the personnel Washinton is putting on the court. LAL with both Pau and Bynum have always ahd trouble defending the pick and roll together and they missed Lamar Odom when he left as a guy who could play with either one and defend it better.

The Pick and Roll is a huge part of my strategy in the half court.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2012, 07:06:09 PM by Kane3387 »


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Re: 2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2012, 12:39:15 PM »

Offline Kane3387

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My rotation.

Due to the lack of an elite perimeter scorer for Washington Westbrook will see more time at PG and Rip Hamilton will as a result get more minutes then DJ Augustine. I think this puts a ton of pressure on Washington's guards. Rip will play 28 mpg. That's adequate time for him to use his conditioning to run either Billiups, Smith, Williams, Nelson, or Curry through a myriad of screens that will eventually lead to some high percentage shots. None of those guys contain the discipline needed to adequately cover Rip. On the other end we will have to live with Hamilton's defense. We would much rather any of Washinton's guards shoot jumpers then feed their big mean inside. Curry is the only guard who shoots at an efficient rate and Hamilton would never guard him. Only Westbrook and Augustine will.

Ron Artest will draw the responsibility of defending Gerald Wallace. Artest has done well against Wallace in the past. He has both the strength and tenacity to matchup with Gerald. As a SF I think Wallace lack of a jumpshot hurts this team. Boston will allow Wallace to shoot threes. He won't be completely wide open but he will be given enough space so that a jumpshot looks much more enticing then an entry pass into the post. Artest will play around 25 mpg.

Now some people want to say Artest fell off. After 2010-11 Hollinger wrote this about Artest.

Quote
World Peace can still defend, posting the best defensive plus-minus on the Lakers at
minus-4.66 points per 100 possessions, according to basketballvalue.com, and surrendering just a 13.9 PER to opposing small forwards, according to 82games.com. Synergy rated him second only to LeBron James among small forwards, and he led his position in steals per minute.

Artest was second only to James in 2011. This next season we had the lockout. Artest struggled like many players with not having a training camp. He also played the entire season with a pinched nerve in his back. A pinched nerve is no joke and since he is healthy Artest will defend more like he did in 2011 then 2012.

Quote
World Peace said his invisibility came from a nerve problem in a leg that is just now clearing. He said he had to give offensive players too many angles, because he was incapable of facing them squarely.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/peace-343117-world-lakers.html

Jackson will come off the bench for both Artest and Hamilton. He will be the primary defender on Wallace when Artest isn't. Jackson will be given the green light to exploit his size against either Williams or Curry if they guard him. When Billups is in we will do pick and pop with Westbrook (much like you see with Pierce and Rondo) to get the switch. Jackson's offensive role will be much like it was in San Antonio. He will be the fourth option on offense when he is in.

After Jackson got settled in with the Spurs and accustomed to playing comfortably in that environment he shined in his new role. During their long playoff run he shot the ball incredibly well from three and from the field. He still shot the ball a fair amount of times, but his looks were normally very clean and open. Like in SA he is playing a role that his game and ability can presently accommodate. No longer is he asked to shoulder the scoring load, like in Charlotte and Milwaukee, as at best he is typically a fourth option when on the court.

One of Gasol and Griffin will always be on the court. Each player will play anywhere from 38-40 mpg. At their ages I believe they can handle the workload. Russell Will also play this level of minutes, but he will always be closer to 40 mpg.

Westbtook (38)\ Augustine (10)
Hamilton (31) \ Jackson (15) Westbrook (2)
Artest (24) \ Jackson (13) \ Green (11)
Griffin (38) \ Artest (6) \ Robinson or Erden (4)
Gasol (38) \ Gray (7) \ Erden (3)


Basically the amount of time any of my backup bigs play will depend on match ups. Robinson only plays if Blair does. Artest will play some four if Griffin is not at the 4 when either Wallace or Beasley is playing PF. Erden and Gray will see time when either one of Gasol or Griffin is out and two of Hawes, Pau, or Gortat are playing for Washington.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2012, 05:53:39 PM by Kane3387 »


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Re: 2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2012, 12:41:58 PM »

Offline ronaldo943

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I am not going to bash on my opponents team as i dont see the point, instead ill talk about my team. Pau Gasol is our best player but not by far we have Gortat, Wallace, Curry, Williams, Hawes and well practically everyone on our team is good. Also Pau Gasol averaged 17pts 10 rebs playing behind Bynum and Kobe so those are pretty good numbers. Pau Gasol will keep on playing at a high level and well he carried Spain yesterday with 24 pts 9-17 shooting 8 rebs 7 ast the guy can score, pass, and rebound. We arent worried about our defense as we have a pretty nice defensive team and they dont have much floor spacing.

My rotation:

Steph Curry (30) Lou Williams (18)
J.R. Smith (24)  Chauncey Billups (15) Lou Williams (9)
Gerald Wallace (32) Michael Beasley (8) Steve Novak (8)
Pau Gasol (34) Spencer Hawes (4) DeJuan Blair (10)
Marcin Gortat (32) Spencer Hawes (16)

I might change this rotation dont know yet.

We will be playing the man to man but sometimes the 2-3 Zone since they have no good shooters! :)


Fine i didnt want to do this but i have to as thats all he does:
Blake Griffin wont be as explosive as this is the second time he injures one of his knees and you need your knees.
Russell Westbrook will only play good if he is shooting good as  whenever he tries to drive it in there will be two guys on him as we dont worry about their floor spacing we dont mind having Artest, Jackson, Rip shooting from downtown the whole game.
Also i love the fact how he never really mentions Gortat and only compares Marc with Pau
Gortat > Marc
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2758/marcin-gortat
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3206/marc-gasol

Also if the game comes down to the line Westbrook wont be clutch not like Novak, Billups
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7tsLkcJqO0

Also Westbrook in the playoffs had to shoot 20 shots to get 23 points his FG% was .435 3PT % .277, now this is for his postseason career 19.6 shots for 23 points FG% .422 3PT% .296
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/3468/seasontype/3/russell-westbrook

Ron Artest Postseason Career: FG% .393 3PT% .314
Stephen Jackson Postseason Career: FG% .404 3PT% .355
Richard Hamilton Postseason Career: FG% .440 3PT% .337

There is no floor spacing whatsoever also last time i checked my main guy has 2 championships how many does his BIG 3 have combined 0.

2-3 ZONE
The 2-3 zone defense is the most common zone defense that we see. It has the advantage of protecting the inside, the "paint", and keeps your "bigs" inside. It's weakness is that it can be beaten by good outside shooting, with open areas on the wings, point and high post.


They have no guy who can shoot lights out from downtown! i can already see STEVE NOVAK wearing the championship belt.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKH3NNuS-P0
« Last Edit: August 13, 2012, 05:58:47 PM by ronaldo943 »

Re: 2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2012, 12:44:03 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Who is Griffin covering on D?


I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER——— AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!@ 34 minutes

Re: 2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2012, 12:52:04 PM »

Offline ronaldo943

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moved to my first post
« Last Edit: August 13, 2012, 01:58:17 PM by ronaldo943 »

Re: 2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2012, 12:57:38 PM »

Offline Kane3387

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Who is Griffin covering on D?

Griffin will defend Gortat primarily b/c of the activity factor and the familiarity factor Marc has with his brother. But he will be asked to defend Pau at points also.


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Re: 2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« Reply #8 on: August 13, 2012, 12:59:28 PM »

Offline Kane3387

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My rotation:

Steph Curry (30) Lou Williams (18)
J.R. Smith (24)  Chauncey Billups (15) Lou Williams (9)
Gerald Wallace (32) Michael Beasley (8) Steve Novak (8)
Pau Gasol (34) Spencer Hawes (4) Steve Novak (10)
Marcin Gortat (32) Spencer Hawes (16)

I might change this rotation dont know yet.

I feel Boston will make nice runs at the points my Big 3 is playing against his backups. Especially in the front court against Hawes. I think Russell will always have the advantage against this backcourt.


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Re: 2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2012, 01:02:36 PM »

Offline Kane3387

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« Last Edit: August 14, 2012, 07:54:14 PM by Kane3387 »


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Re: 2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2012, 01:14:51 PM »

Offline ronaldo943

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moved to my first post
« Last Edit: August 13, 2012, 01:57:33 PM by ronaldo943 »

Re: 2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2012, 01:27:07 PM »

Offline ronaldo943

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moved to my first post so my post wont be all clustered up
« Last Edit: August 13, 2012, 01:53:49 PM by ronaldo943 »

Re: 2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2012, 01:31:56 PM »

Offline ronaldo943

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i really dont see any floor spacing on his team unless Griffin or Marc can shoot 3s we will be playing a 2-3 zone as they have no floor spacing :D sometimes we will change it up and play man to man but for the most part 2-3 zone

Re: 2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« Reply #13 on: August 13, 2012, 01:42:34 PM »

Offline ronaldo943

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...
« Last Edit: August 13, 2012, 01:56:11 PM by ronaldo943 »

Re: 2012 CB Draft (4)Celtics Vs (5)Wizards First Round Matchup
« Reply #14 on: August 13, 2012, 01:54:55 PM »

Offline Kane3387

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Quote
Fine i didnt want to do this but i have to as thats all he does:
Blake Griffin wont be as explosive as this is the second time he injures one of his knees and you need your knees.

This kind of injury is no longer a big deal in today's NBA. He will be fine and ready for camp.

Quote
Russell Westbrook will only play good if he is shooting good as  whenever he tries to drive it in there will be two guys on him as we dont worry about their floor spacing we dont mind having Artest, Jackson, Rip shooting from downtown the whole game.

None of your bigs are great shot blockers. Russell is one of the best at finishing over and around guys. And in traffic.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7h00yyD3AQ

Quote
Also i love the fact how he never really mentions Gortat and only compares Marc with Pau
Gortat > Marc

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=gasolma01&p2=gortama01

Marc Gasol outperforms Gortat in every statistical category besides fg%.


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