2012 CB Draft Pacific Division Press Conferences

[The Walker Wiggle]

For me, it's Anthony Davis.

His level of performance (in his rookie year) relative to other established players taken (CB Draft) in the first round (MVP candidates, All-League players, perennial All-Star caliber talents) is a major drawback for your team.

I think if you had a win-now player in Anthony Davis' place, your team would have been a title contender.

Thanks Who, I at least appreciate all your feedback. Of course, I strongly disagree. One, I think Davis will be a top rim protector and finisher out of the gates, and his rebound rate will translate. Add to that his high ceiling, and the sporadic elite performance. I don't need a lot more from him. And I don't believe he'll compare badly to other late 1st round picks Wall, Jefferson, or Greg Monroe, the guy he beat out to replace Blake Griffin on the Olympic squad. Distinguish Davis from Oden who was a popular 1st round selection for three straight years?

I also consider his draft position irrelevant given that I've paired him with two top-30 talents in Andre Iguodala and Manu Ginobili, both drafted in the middle of the second round.

But people are going to be surprised, just like they were by KG, Rubio, Cousins, Eric Gordon, Westbrook. You are not going to watch him next year and think, "This is a guy that would hold a team back."

[Who]

And I don't believe he'll compare badly to other late 1st round picks Wall, Jefferson, or Greg Monroe, the guy he beat out to replace Blake Griffin on the Olympic squad.

John Wall, Al Jefferson and Greg Monroe = same boat as Anthony Davis.

Too large a gap between their impact on a team and the rest of the first round picks. Very difficult to bridge that gap.

[Who]

Distinguish Davis from Oden who was a popular 1st round selection for three straight years?

I love Greg Oden so always happy to revisit him ...

Greg Oden = I didn't participate in this CB Draft during Oden's first two years.

I can't comment on those years. I did his third year (or after his 2nd year playing wise). When Oden was on that NY Knicks team with Dwyane Wade who was coming off an MVP caliber season and was clearly the 2nd best player in the league at the time (Wade that is).

I thought Oden was fantastic the year before in limited minutes/games (his 2nd year playing wise). Just as valuable as Brandon Roy (top 15 player) to Portland on a per minute basis (although only playing half a game). I thought Oden had proven himself as a top five center talent wise who just hadn't shown he could stay on the court yet (which I gave him the benefit of the doubt over). I thought Oden was the best rebounder in the league (better than Dwight), top five interior defender and a good offensive option in the 3rd/4th option variety.

If I remember right, that NY Knicks team was criticized for their lack of a second option behind Wade. I think they may have had a weak bench too. Many people (myself included) loved Wade's individual brilliance and the defense/rebounding of the squad.

Wade had just led his team to back-to-back seasons of around 45 wins with fairly mediocre talent around him. Adding a guy like Oden (as a high level facilitator primarily as a defender/rebounder with some offensive punch), if healthy, my idea (which I think was well-shared) was that Wade was well capable of lifting that Knicks team to a mid 50 win type season. And that with their defensive talent (Kenyon Martin, George Hill too) alongside Wade's offensive brilliance, they'd be a very difficult team to play against in the playoffs. 

In terms of Oden's rookie year, I am struggling to remember my expectations. They were higher than my expectations for Anthony Davis though. The NBA-ready body being the main difference.

Something like a 15/10 threat and above average defense and passing. I imagine that would have made him an above average starting center, maybe a borderline top ten center (expectations wise).

Of course, Oden didn't meet my expectations for him in his rookie season. Not talking about injuries but in terms of performance when available. He didn't get the minutes I expected him to get (with Przybilla eating into his playing time). My expected box-score production for Oden was in the right ball-park on a per minute basis. His defense, however, was not. There was a steep learning curve there (defensively). He often struggled defensively. More like a top 20 center, maybe top 25 center.

[Who]

Okay, veering back to Anthony Davis ...

I wrote my expectations for Anthony Davis in another thread ... although that was when I believed he had an NBA ready jump-shot at his disposal. The loss of that has soured me a bit on his offensive worth. So I'll reevaluate that.

• The explosive finishing of a JaVale McGee + the passing and decision making of a Joakim Noah. I imagine that would make him about average amongst the starting centers in terms of offensive ability. If he had a jumper, I would've had him well above average and considered him a high level facilitator offensively with due to his finishing, passing and shooting ability.
• As a rebounder, I would expect him to be below average as a starting center. A lot of quality rebounders starting at the center position. Would've had him above average at PF.
• As a defender, I am really undecided. I worry about his lack of size as a man-to-man defender. I expect him to be firmly below average there. As a team defender? I am going to be grounded and am thinking closer to good team defense than an elite team defender ... while he continues to learn his trade as an NBA rookie.

In terms of production, I had said around 14ppg for Davis when I thought he had a jump-shot. Without a jumper, I'll go back down to around 12ppg. And 9rpg with 2.5-3.0bpg, 3apg and 1.5-2.0spg. Strong field goal percentage and scoring efficiency.

On your Golden State team, I think the lack of rebounders will increase Davis' totals and get him into that 10-11rpg range plus with so many offensive threats and a spread out offense (Teletovic and Frye at PF with playmakers / scorers on perimeter), I could see him getting a bump back up to that 14-15ppg range.

[The Walker Wiggle]

In terms of production, I had said around 14ppg for Davis when I thought he had a jump-shot. Without a jumper, I'll go back down to around 12ppg. And 9rpg with 2.5-3.0bpg, 3apg and 1.5-2.0spg. Strong field goal percentage and scoring efficiency.

TP Who. What's funny is that if I can get that kind of production I love Davis. Guess how many players were good for better than 12 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks and 1 steal per game last season? Dwight Howard.

I'm hyping Davis in two threads now. So just to get it down here. Kevin Pelton, a smarter man than I, is projecting him at 14.5, 11.8 and 1.2 assists. (Oddly no blocks projection that I can find?)

As for the jumper. I do hold out some hope that it'll develop, even as the season goes along. He has nice form, good hands.

He hasn't been terribly consistent with it, but he can catch fire from mid-range. He torched Vandy on 10-11 shooting in their 1st or 2nd meeting with jumpers out to the three-point line. The potential is definitely there.

He drained that 3 against the DR.

[The Walker Wiggle]

And I don't believe he'll compare badly to other late 1st round picks Wall, Jefferson, or Greg Monroe, the guy he beat out to replace Blake Griffin on the Olympic squad.

John Wall, Al Jefferson and Greg Monroe = same boat as Anthony Davis.

Too large a gap between their impact on a team and the rest of the first round picks. Very difficult to bridge that gap.

You skipped the part about having the best starting shooting guard and small forward in the division. An advantage at two positions out of five isn't worth anything? Admittedly, I'm not that excited about how strong the power forwards in the Pacific are - apologies in advance Mirza.

[Donoghus]

I haven't finished reading over the Pacific press conferences yet but I will say that a good way to garner points with me is to include a Ric Flair reference.  Well done.

Really tough division to call.  Very deep.  Top to bottom, the best division going, I think.

1) Lakers
2) Suns
3) Clippers
4) Warriors

Dang Don. I hate to see where you would've ranked me if I hadn't name dropped Ric Flair. Having the two best wing players in the conference, and a franchise big man gets you ranked at the bottom of the division?

The scary thing, I've been dropping down the standings since I started. Second round exit to first round blowout to late lottery to...

I'm just going to announce now that I'll be targeting the bottom spot in 2013.

Tough divison.  I just don't think you have enough firepower to stay with the pack.

Honestly surprised by that reaction, although I know Roy shares your fears. I never expected my team's offense would be considered a weakness.

Do you mind expounding?

Is that you don't feel that Klay Thompson can improve on his 18.5 points per 36 number? Or that you expect Manu (20 points per 36) will miss more time than Eric Gordon? Fall off compared to Nowitzki or Nash? Single digit scoring from Anthony Davis?

You're starting two rookies.  So 2/5 of your starting five has zero minutes of NBA experience.  I do think that Davis is going to be a stud but we're talking about '12-13 now.  I'm not sure his development is going to be overnight. 

Manu is at an advanced age these days and you usually have to chalk him up for some games missed.   You're starting Klay Thompson who has one year under his belt and leaves something to be desired and neither is a guy that I totally buy into as running the point on a night in/night out basis. Your bench also leaves something to be desired with me.

I think the other teams in your division have the advantage with experience and are more complementary off the bat. 

That being said, I said that I think this is the deepest division in the draft and the difference between 1-4 is not nearly as great as it is in the other divisions, IMO.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Okay, if you're predicting 35 year old Manu to fall off this season then the Warriors are in a lot of trouble. (I would argue he looked better when healthy than 34 year Nowitzki, if not so good as 38 year old Steve Nash.) But I've loved what I've seen of him in the Olympics, and believe as a first option in 36 minutes he can still get 19 per game.

Then as for Klay Thompson, players typically improve most between their first and second seasons, I'm predicting he can comfortably get 18 per game. That's behind his per 36 last season.

Then I like Davis and Iguodala (career average 15 ppg) for 14 each. Mirza Teletovic, the best scorer in Europe I'm penciling in for 10. That feels reasonably conservative?

So Ginobili - 19, Thompson - 18, Davis - 14, Iguodala - 14, Teletovic - 10 gets me 75 points per game out my starting five. The Celtics starting five scored 74 per game last season.

As for the fit criticism I admit that gets me down. I give a lot of thought to finding players that can score in complimentary ways, make up a workable pecking order, stretch the floor, score efficiently, pass the ball well at their position, but I get that same critique every year.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Your bench also leaves something to be desired with me.

I'm also interested in this. (And talking CB Draft is better than gnashing my teeth over the Lakers latest coup.)

Bismack Biyombo vs Derrick Favors
Channing Frye vs Tyler Hansbrough
Jonas Jerebko vs. Omri Casspi
Alec Burks vs. Rip Hamilton
Delonte West vs. Darren Collison

Collison is only a reserve in a 24 team league. Love that guy. (Point Clippers.) But Rip only played 28 games last year - significantly fewer than my injury concern D-West - still his steady hand coming off the bench is an asset. At least as long as the team is winning… At the 3, I know you love Casspi, but I haven't been impressed. And by the #s Jerebko has him handled. And at the 4, shooter Channing Frye posts a better FG% (not surprised) and rebound rate (kind of surprised) than banger Tyler Hansbrough. (Point Warriors.) While in the battle of project big men, Biyombo blocks more shots and somehow still fouls less, but Favors in his second year is otherwise far ahead of the rook, and with just as much, if not more, room for improvement. Okay Derrick swings it. I'm calling this one in Favors of the Clippers. Best bench in the Pacific. (Just don't tell Champkind.)

Bismack Biyombo vs Nick Collison
Channing Frye vs Thomas Robinson
Jonas Jerebko vs Carlos Delfino
Alec Burks vs Terrence Ross
Delonte West vs Devin Harris

Depends largely on how much credit you're willing to give the L@kers rookies versus my sophomores. Harris is an excellent back up point guard. (Point L.A.) Jerebko may be to the 4/5 what Delfino is to the 2/3. While Nick Collison is a player I love, but I still give my front court reserves the edge. I'm disappointed this L.A. team didn't try to address its lack of shooting in the starting five among its top reserves. Too close to call.

Bismack Biyombo vs Tristan Thompson
Channing Frye vs. Antawn Jamsion
Jonas Jerebko vs. John Salmons
Alec Burks vs. Jamal Crawford
Delonte West vs. Andre Miller

Another great point guard! (Point Phoenix.) Remember folks, SO once won the title with an off-year Rudy Fernandez backing up Baron Davis. Another battle of the project big men! But this time Biyombo vs. Thompson is a wash. I prefer Biyombo the shot blocker with better shot selection. Phoenix wins hands down on scoring, experience, and/or name dropping. But I crunched the numbers and this reserve squad actually shoots 41.1% while struggling defensively. Roy is going to hate it. But I'm calling this the worst bench in the division.