Is Rondo the best NBA PG? He's almost there.

[soap07]

All this talk about Rondo's ability to run the offense - and yet the Celtics have been a mediocre offensive team for a couple years now. This is fact. This is not all Rondo's fault, or even greatly his fault, but there is no question that his in ability to score and shoot consistently can be a drain on the offense. It's what keeps him a notch below Deron and Paul.

[kozlodoev]

Westbrook must do something well, right?  He looks so mediocre focusing on these three numbers.

He does volume scoring well. Volume scoring is not reflected in FG%, AST, or ATTR -- just the opposite, if anything.

Is it volume scoring or chucking tho?  True Shooting % and points per game are only weakly correlated at .33 (for nba qualifiers last season), but it's not like they're negatively correlated.  I actually had a pretty high opinion of Westbrook coming into this, based on reputation, and am surprised downright mediocre he looks.

Not sure how you differentiate between the two.

The reason why Westbrook looks poor in this metric is that it ignores his strength -- namely, the ability to put 20-25 points on the board at any given time.

Replace ATTR with PPG in the measure, and you'll likely see him near the top.

[kozlodoev]

Why someone decided this is a good measure is a different issue altogether.

Either you didn't read the full OP, or you're just trying to fuel some kind of argument or something. I explained why I looked at those statistics. Agree or disagree with them if you want, but my explanation is right there.

I was addressing a specific comment about having Nash in the list of "top PGs" and the role of statistics in it.

[LarBrd33]

Good thread.  Bottom line... if you weren't Celtic fans you'd never have the audacity to suggest Rondo was the best point guard in the league.  He isn't.  Chris Paul will come on top of most lists.  Rondo probably isn't even the 2nd best. 

I love Rondo and he's my favorite player to watch on the Celtics, but I've argued against this garbage for months.  Part of the reason he gets so many assists is because he can't score consistently.  I still don't understand how someone could think 12 points and 11 assists is more impressive than 19 points and 9 assists.  This is the game of basketball... think about it.  Clearly the guy who scores 19 and gets 9 assists is directly/indirectly responsible for more points (at least 47) than the guy who scores 12 and gets 11 assists (at least 35).  If Rondo scored more, he'd get less assists.

Anyhow... there's a ton of ways to argue against the incorrect belief that Rondo is "the best"... and very few ways to argue that he is (usually just hinges on his impressive assist stat or some bias arbitrary faith-based observation that he's "special" and "the best pure point guard").  I'll just say that if you take the simple birdies/efficiency stats calculation (points + rebounds + assists, + steals + blocks ... subtract missed shots and turnovers), here were the rankings last year:

1 - Chris Paul (24.5)
2 - Russell Westbrook (20.5)
3 - Derrick Rose (20.4)
4 - Deron Williams (19.4)
5 - Rajon Rondo (19.3)
6 - Steve Nash (18.8 )
7 - Tony Parker (18.6)
8 - Ty Lawson (18.6)
9 - John Wall (18.2)
10 - Kyrie Irving (17.7)

... and if you're curious what the rankings were for 2010-11 when Rose inexplicably won MVP:

1 (tied) - Derrick Rose - 23.1
1 (tied) - Chris Paul - 23.1
3 - Deron Williams - 22.9
4 - Russell Westbrook - 22.4
5 - Steve Nash - 21.0
6 - Stephen Curry - 19.3
7 - Rajon Rondo - 19.1
8 - Tony Parker - 18.3
9 - John Wall - 18.1
10 - Raymond Felton - 18.0

...

Screw it ... it's got back even further.  This was surprising.  Rondo's best season was arguably not even last year.  Check out 2009-10:

1 - Chris Paul - 25.6
2 - Deron Williams - 22.9
3 - Steve Nash - 22.6
4 - Rajon Rondo - 20.6
5 - Jason Kidd - 19.7
6 - Stephen Curry - 19.0
7 - Derrick Rose - 18.8
7 - Chauncy Billups - 18.8
9 - Russell Westbrook - 18.1
10 - Baron Davis - 17.5

... And let's go back one more year for giggles.  2008-09:

1 - Chris Paul - 30.5 (2nd overall only to King James)
2 - Deron Williams - 22.5
3 - Tony Parker - 20.6
4 - Devin Harris - 20.3
5 - Steven Nash - 20.0
6 - Jason Kidd - 19.3
7 - Jose Calderon - 18.9
8 - Andre Miller - 18.8
8 - Rajon Rondo - 18.8
10 - Chauncy Billups - 18.6

Bottom line... you'd have to be slightly daft to suggest Chris Paul is anything other than the greatest point guard alive.  Beyond obvious statistical superiority, he's widely considered by most to be perhaps the greatest "leader" in the entire NBA.  Beyond that he's been consistently praised for his ability to absolutely take over games when necessary... proving it time and time again that he can score at will down the stretch and is extremely clutch.  Beyond that, he's a 4 time steals leader and 4 time all-defense (twice on the first team).  Beyond that, he's clearly an elite playmaker/passer and could easily lead the league in assists if he wasn't an incredibly efficient scorer with long range (career 36%) and free throw (85%) ability. 

Chris Paul is #1.  I still say Deron Williams is likely #2 (those sleeping on him and Brooklyn might be in for a little surprise.  That team is solid on paper).   My favorite is definitely Rajon Rondo, though.  He's probably top 6 up there with Westbrook, Rose, Deron, CP3 and Nash.  I still could see Steph Curry and Kyrie Irving jumping up the list as well. 

Note:  For those who are going to discredit my opinions like I'm somehow the minority... please note that Chris Paul was 1st team All-NBA this year.  Westbrook and Tony Parker made 2nd team All-NBA.  Rondo, despite arguably his best regular season... ended up all-NBA 3rd team.  Clearly I'm not the only person who sees Chris Paul as the best.

[AB_Celtic]

For those who are interested, if you follow the standard deviation method and include rebounds, here's what you get.

Final Rankings with REBS (Previous ranking in parenthesis)
1(2). Chris Paul +6.85
2(3). Rajon Rondo +6.38
3(1). Steve Nash +6.29
4(4). Tony Parker +3.17
5(5). Derrick Rose +1.82
6(7). Russell Westbrook +1.13
7(6). Deron Williams +0.51

Paul, Rondo, and Nash are all pretty dead even. Nash's abysmal rebounding in comparison to Rondo drops him down to third.

And I guess Westbrook can do something well; he can rebound. His 4.6 REBS (second only to Rondo of these 7) moves him from 7th to 6th.

[BballTim]

All this talk about Rondo's ability to run the offense - and yet the Celtics have been a mediocre offensive team for a couple years now. This is fact. This is not all Rondo's fault, or even greatly his fault, but there is no question that his in ability to score and shoot consistently can be a drain on the offense. It's what keeps him a notch below Deron and Paul.

  The main reason that the Celts have been a mediocre offense is a lack of offensive rebounds. This is a pretty well known fact.

[kozlodoev]

All this talk about Rondo's ability to run the offense - and yet the Celtics have been a mediocre offensive team for a couple years now. This is fact. This is not all Rondo's fault, or even greatly his fault, but there is no question that his in ability to score and shoot consistently can be a drain on the offense. It's what keeps him a notch below Deron and Paul.

  The main reason that the Celts have been a mediocre offense is a lack of offensive rebounds. This is a pretty well known fact.

Not really -- especially given that the poor offensive rebounding is by design.

[AB_Celtic]

All this talk about Rondo's ability to run the offense - and yet the Celtics have been a mediocre offensive team for a couple years now. This is fact. This is not all Rondo's fault, or even greatly his fault, but there is no question that his in ability to score and shoot consistently can be a drain on the offense. It's what keeps him a notch below Deron and Paul.

  The main reason that the Celts have been a mediocre offense is a lack of offensive rebounds. This is a pretty well known fact.

Not really -- especially given that the poor offensive rebounding is by design.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't we have a mediocre offense by design? We're a defense-first team!

[BballTim]

Good thread.  Bottom line... if you weren't Celtic fans you'd never have the audacity to suggest Rondo was the best point guard in the league.

  There were a fair amount of reporters/analysists/commentators that talked about Rondo being the best pg in the game during the playoffs. I don't have a ton of interest in what they say, but you have to be in denial to claim that they're all Celtics fans.

[BballTim]

All this talk about Rondo's ability to run the offense - and yet the Celtics have been a mediocre offensive team for a couple years now. This is fact. This is not all Rondo's fault, or even greatly his fault, but there is no question that his in ability to score and shoot consistently can be a drain on the offense. It's what keeps him a notch below Deron and Paul.

  The main reason that the Celts have been a mediocre offense is a lack of offensive rebounds. This is a pretty well known fact.

Not really -- especially given that the poor offensive rebounding is by design.

  I'm not sure what this means (in terms of the conversation).

[LarBrd33]

For those who are interested, if you follow the standard deviation method and include rebounds, here's what you get.

Final Rankings with REBS (Previous ranking in parenthesis)
1(2). Chris Paul +6.85
2(3). Rajon Rondo +6.38
3(1). Steve Nash +6.29
4(4). Tony Parker +3.17
5(5). Derrick Rose +1.82
6(7). Russell Westbrook +1.13
7(6). Deron Williams +0.51

Paul, Rondo, and Nash are all pretty dead even. Nash's abysmal rebounding in comparison to Rondo drops him down to third.

And I guess Westbrook can do something well; he can rebound. His 4.6 REBS (second only to Rondo of these 7) moves him from 7th to 6th.

Wonky statistical analysis after wonky statistical analysis and we can still be fairly certain that Chris Paul is better than Rajon Rondo.

Question about your wonky statistical analysis... are you still just including basic field goal percentage?  I think that'd be a mistake.  Yes, Rondo tends to have a high field goal percentage, but that's because the majority of his shots come at the basket.  It's the luxury of having Ray Allen spread the floor and having big men like KG and Brandon Bass mostly operate as mid-range shooters.  It frees up the paint for penetration and layups.   Sure, Rondo shot 45% last year, but he shot 25% from the distance and under 60% from the line.  That's borderline pathetic.  Compare that with Nash (53%, 39%, 89%) or Chris Paul (48%, 37%, 86%) and it's drastically different.  It's misleading to just include field goal percentage.  The Celtics have to construct their offense partially to make up for ROndo's weaknesses.  I'm not so sure we could just have two traditional big men operating in the post... it would clog to paint and require Rondo to rely on his ghastly shooting.  That would be a problem.  This is admittedly overly simplified, but when all 4 of your teammates are shooters drawing attention outside the paint, it makes it easy to penetrate into the open paint... you're either getting an uncontested layup or you have 4 kick-out options for an assist opportunity.  These are things you HAVE to take into consideration when comparing Rondo with superior point guards like Chris Paul.

Some people like "True shooting percentage" instead. 

True shooting percentage is a sabermetric basketball statistic meant to more accurately calculate a player's shooting than field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and 3-point field goal percentage taken individually. Two- and three- point field goals and free throws are all considered in its calculation. It is abbreviated TS%

It is calculated by: :TS% = \frac{PTS}{(2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)) }

Maybe consider factoring that into your wonky statistical analysis.

Here's a handful I found of the guards we're discussing:

2011-12 TS%:

Steve Nash .625
Stephen Curry .605
Chris Paul .581
Ty Lawson .579
Goran Dragic .567
Kyrie Irving .566
Kyle Lowry .558
Jeremy Lin .552
Tony Parker .539
Russell Westbrook .538
Derrick Rose .532
Deron Williams .527
John Wall .502
Rajon Rondo - .483

FYI... That's not all point guards.  Just the ones I looked up. 

[Bozo]

In the interview with Jason Terry, didn't he say that Jason Kidd pulled him aside, in a Celtic game, and told him that he thought that Rondo was the best point guard in the league.

Jason Kidd! That is a very, very nice compliment. 

[Sketch5]

In the interview with Jason Terry, didn't he say that Jason Kidd pulled him aside, in a Celtic game, and told him that he thought that Rondo was the best point guard in the league.

Jason Kidd! That is a very, very nice compliment.

Yeah I was going to just say that. forget the #'s, Jason Kidd, who is one of the all time great PG's and what I think Rondo comes closes to in comparison said he was the best.

Thats pretty high praise and people should take it in consideration.

[AB_Celtic]

...

Wonky statistical analysis after wonky statistical analysis and we can still be fairly certain that Chris Paul is better than Rajon Rondo.

Question about your wonky statistical analysis... are you still just including basic field goal percentage?  I think that'd be a mistake.  Yes, Rondo tends to have a high field goal percentage, but that's because the majority of his shots come at the basket.  It's the luxury of having Ray Allen spread the floor and having big men like KG and Brandon Bass mostly operate as mid-range shooters.  It frees up the paint for penetration and layups.   Sure, Rondo shot 45% last year, but he shot 25% from the distance and under 60% from the line.  That's borderline pathetic.  Compare that with Nash (53%, 39%, 89%) or Chris Paul (48%, 37%, 86%) and it's drastically different.  It's misleading to just include field goal percentage.  The Celtics have to construct their offense partially to make up for ROndo's weaknesses.  I'm not so sure we could just have two traditional big men operating in the post... it would clog to paint and require Rondo to rely on his ghastly shooting.  That would be a problem.  This is admittedly overly simplified, but when all 4 of your teammates are shooters drawing attention outside the paint, it makes it easy to penetrate into the open paint... you're either getting an uncontested layup or you have 4 kick-out options for an assist opportunity.  These are things you HAVE to take into consideration when comparing Rondo with superior point guards like Chris Paul.

Some people like "True shooting percentage" instead. 

True shooting percentage is a sabermetric basketball statistic meant to more accurately calculate a player's shooting than field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and 3-point field goal percentage taken individually. Two- and three- point field goals and free throws are all considered in its calculation. It is abbreviated TS%

It is calculated by: :TS% = \frac{PTS}{(2 * (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)) }

Maybe consider factoring that into your wonky statistical analysis.

Here's a handful I found of the guards we're discussing:

2011-12 TS%:

Steve Nash .625
Stephen Curry .605
Chris Paul .581
Ty Lawson .579
Goran Dragic .567
Kyrie Irving .566
Kyle Lowry .558
Jeremy Lin .552
Tony Parker .539
Russell Westbrook .538
Derrick Rose .532
Deron Williams .527
John Wall .502
Rajon Rondo - .483

FYI... That's not all point guards.  Just the ones I looked up.

Yeah I couldn't find any TS% statistics on the source I was using.


Sorry if thats too for you.

[BballTim]

its not about who is the flashiest,

Rondo gets a lot of attention for his flashy passes, dribble moves, and steals -- and people tend to gloss over the holes in his game. So yeah.

  Most point guards have more holes in their games than Rondo. He's not a great outside shooter or free throw shooter, but he's arguably the best in the league in just about every other point guard skill. Aside from rebounding (where he's pretty good) only CP3 can make a similar claim.

Or to flip your argument around: Rose/Paul/Nash/[insert your favorite PG here] is not a great defender or passer, but he's arguably the best in the league in just about every other point guard skill.

  Nash isn't a great defender or rebounder and doesn't get to the rim much. Rose doesn't rebound, defend, pass, run an offense or control the pace of the game as well as Rondo. Which point guard skills (aside from scoring) do you see Rose as best in the league at?

I wasn't aware that rebounding is a point guard skill. But I digress...

Also, I am curious what  distinguishing between "passing, running an offense and controlling the tempo" serve other than padding Rondo's resume?

  Possibly because they are seperate skills and are all important for a good point guard to possess?

Should we then  divide shooting into "shooting the three", "shooting off the dribble", "shooting from close distance", "shooting from midrange", post game, etc.? That will open ujp a pile of holes in Rondo's game too.

  Sure, and you could come up with 20 different passing categories as well. If you think that scoring's the main skill for a pg then go for it.

Plis, I did not say Rose is the best PG in the league.

  You said that, aside from passing or defending, Rose was arguably the best in the league in just about every other point guard skill. I would disagree, but that's just me.

But the notion that Rondo is being underestimated around the league because, you know, the world doesn't know what a PG is, and CB does is ridiculous. Yes, Rondo is a great player. But so are half a dozen of other guys, and all of them have considerable holes in their game. The argument that Rondo's flaws are somehow less significant because those skills are not important for a PG is preposterous.

  You said that Rondo's flashy play makes people gloss over the holes in his game and I pointed out that most point guards have more holes in their games than he has. I don't know where most of the comments you're suddenly refuting came from.