What is the 21st and 22nd pick worth?

[tyrone biggums]

I've seen a lot of posts regarding the picks since the season has ended. Most of them view these picks in a negative light in terms of trading up. Since when did two first round picks in any sport allow a team to only move up 5 spots in a draft? Especially a deep draft such as this one? I feel that the overall perception of this team in Boston is that they are doomed no matter what, and that as long as the negativity is around no ones expectations will be raised. Its all about how we perceive these picks

For example

If the Spurs or Heat or Thunder had the 21st and 22nd pick, we would be seeing posts such as the following

-How are we going to deal with Drummond in South Beach? Miami has enough to trade into the top 5
-Will Harrison Barnes help the Spurs? 21 and 22 should be enough to move up
-The 21st and 22nd pick is a lot of ammo to move up in this draft

Instead since this is the Celtics we're talking about these are the following posts

-The 21st and 22nd picks don't really have that much value to move up...maybe to 15th or 16th but that's really it
-The only way this team moves up is if it includes JJJ and Bradley in a deal with both picks
-Lets take Emeka Okafor's contract and give up both picks to move up to 10!
-Trade Rondo to Sacremento with the whole [dang] team and it might get us #5 and Tyreke Evans!!!!!
-BLOW IT UP!!!

In my opinion the picks can get the Celtics up to around the top 10, probably 12-13 range which is about right. Any GM who would give up 2 1st rounders to move up five spots and not get at least a 2nd rounder or a player in return with that higher pick should be running a team in the CBA not the NBA.

My issue is that this is a huge opportunity for the Celtics to become the Spurs. They already have a very young all star point guard at a decent rate (but Celtics fans are AFRAID to admit that Rondo is an All Star pg, like someone will make fun of them and throw rocks at them), they probably have Jeff Green coming back, Avery Bradley has become a lock down defensive force at the two. For everyone that has knocked Ainge's drafts besides the Giddens/Walker draft which one did he really miss on? Gerald Green? This board was going nuts when Green fell to the Celtics and at the time that was a no brainer...you cannot fault Ainge for taking Green.

This is a guy who has drafted Tony Allen, Delonte West, Al Jefferson, Jeff Green (for SEA), Avery Bradley, Glen Davis, Leon Powe (Not his fault about Powe's knees)

He also was responsible for the draft day trades of Kendrick Perkins and Ray Allen

I think the man needs to have the benefit of the doubt here. Not too many GM's in sports have Ainge's resume.

[bfrombleacher]

Blow it up posts make me sad. Especially after what just happened.

The picks are not worth a lot on their own but they can expedite trades.

If we "blow it up", chances are KG is walking.

[CoachBo]

Yup.

SMH at the blow it up people.

[lightspeed5]

only the other GMs can answer this because they dictate the value.

[droopdog7]

Fwell first, this isn't the nfl draft so get any thoughts from that out of your head.  In the nba draft, talent tends to drop off very quickly.  Picks in the 20s don't have a heck of a lot of value.  At that point, you're drafting players with serious flaws in most questions.  Not that many of those players don't succeed; they do.  But a heck of a lot don't.

So no, I don't feel those two picks could get as high as number ten.  Not even close really.  And yes, I think 15 is about the over under.  So for me, getting anything above 15 is good value. 

[Celestine3]

much appreciated

[bfrombleacher]

much appreciated

I thought we got rid of these people.

[tyrone biggums]

Fwell first, this isn't the nfl draft so get any thoughts from that out of your head.  In the nba draft, talent tends to drop off very quickly.  Picks in the 20s don't have a heck of a lot of value.  At that point, you're drafting players with serious flaws in most questions.  Not that many of those players don't succeed; they do.  But a heck of a lot don't.

So no, I don't feel those two picks could get as high as number ten.  Not even close really.  And yes, I think 15 is about the over under.  So for me, getting anything above 15 is good value. 

So the NBA is the only sport in which 2 first round picks get you to move up 6 spots? That makes zero sense, now if the team with the 15th pick threw a 2nd rounder in with that then fine that starts to make sense. But if its only for that other teams first rounder you'll get higher than the 15th overall pick. For six spots up you're looking at dealing the 21st and a 2nd rounder or a player...not dealing two firsts.

[clover]

I think Danny's got to get into the top 10 to land a likely future-starter center, and the top 15 for a future-starter 3.

At this point I'd have him move anyone or anything other than Rondo and Bradley to get there.

And I'd have him consolidate his FA dollars, beyond KG, for Ilyasova.

I'm not that concerned with how he fills in beyond that.

[Evantime34]

I don't buy that the Celtics are unwilling to pick two rookies. I  believe that they are trying their hardest to move up or deal the pick for an established player but I think when both those things fall through they will just end up picking where they are originally slotted.

[Celtics18]

I'm thinking, Jeff Taylor and Perry Jones.

[mctyson]

Since when did two first round picks in any sport allow a team to only move up 5 spots in a draft? Especially a deep draft such as this one?

The draft being deep does not change the fact that lottery picks are always more valuable than picks in the 20's, it has always been this way, it will always be this way. 

Our picks are just more valuable than they would be in a draft not considered to be "deep."  That means we could trade one of them for a future 1st, since teams don't know where they will wind up in the future.  They can't value future picks, but might see one of ours in the 20's this year as equal value in return.

In fact, if the draft is so deep, I'd rather trade down, and pick up more future assets.

[tyrone biggums]

Since when did two first round picks in any sport allow a team to only move up 5 spots in a draft? Especially a deep draft such as this one?

The draft being deep does not change the fact that lottery picks are always more valuable than picks in the 20's, it has always been this way, it will always be this way. 

Our picks are just more valuable than they would be in a draft not considered to be "deep."  That means we could trade one of them for a future 1st, since teams don't know where they will wind up in the future.  They can't value future picks, but might see one of ours in the 20's this year as equal value in return.

In fact, if the draft is so deep, I'd rather trade down, and pick up more future assets.

The issue is this, that the talent between 8 and 21 are pretty interchangeable. You have to consider that and also consider the fact that 2 1st rounders do not equal moving up 6 picks by themselves...the other team would need to kick in a 2nd rounder or something to equal out the value. This has been dubbed a 6-7 person draft by "experts" after that you're seeing Mocks where Dion Walters is going anywhere between 8 and 18 for example. So as long as Boston doesn't try to move up into that 6-7 spot they should getting appropriate value for the picks. Phoenix or Milwaukee's spots would be fair value, New Orleans would be pushing it and the 5 spot would be a boneheaded move for the Kings. If this was a 10 or 12 person draft then I could see where you're coming from that combining both picks only puts them in a slightly better position. But the C's will absolutely be able to get better value

[clover]

I don't buy that the Celtics are unwilling to pick two rookies. I  believe that they are trying their hardest to move up or deal the pick for an established player but I think when both those things fall through they will just end up picking where they are originally slotted.

I buy both that Danny wants to move up and that Doc doesn't want three rookies on the team with his Boilermakers.

[Birdman]

Saw on NBAdraftnet the Celtics selects Nicholson and Perry Jones..i dont think Jones will be there at 21..why is he dropping so fast?