I wrote a long post about this last night, but it got erased.
I'll try to make it quick.
Physically, they are quite similar. Just shy of 6'9" without shoes, long arms, similar standing reaches. Nicholson is 235 pounds to QMiller's 220. Nicholson should be a steady 245-250 pounds within the next 2 years. Miller should get to 235 within 2 years, great weight for a 3, and acceptable for a stretch 4.
Miller is 19. Nicholson is 22.
Both players have upside, because Nicholson's only been playing 6 years, and his outside shooting was a revelation this year. QMiller has major upside, because of his young age, injury-limited freshman year, and a physique that is now starting to fill out.
Miller has better versatility, in that he projects to an above average offensive player and competent defender at both the 3 and the 4. Nicholson is strictly a 4.
Miller is the better athlete, the better ball handler, possibly a better passer, and the better player in transition, both offensively and defensively.
Nicholson, as of now, is stronger, the more polished post scorer, the better outside shooter, the better post defender, and the more mentally consistent scorer in general.
At the Combine, Nicholson looked like he hadn't lifted weights since last offseason. He came into last season at around 245, but gradually lost 10 pounds over the season. With consistent strength training in the offseason AND during the season, Nicholson should be able to stay close to 245 going forward.
Nicholson is probably more intelligent, definitely more mature, and more ready to contribute immediately. I think he will always have problems guarding other stretch 4s on the perimeter, because of his lack of athleticism. He will also have his share of difficulties defending down low, but those will be less of an issue as he gets more experience in the weight room. However, he will still get beat by his share of quick moves from the post.
Miller will also struggle defending deep in the post, even when he gets up to 235 pounds. But he will be a better perimeter defender against stretch 4's, and better as a transition defender because of his (recovering) athleticism. Even playing post defense, QMiller should be able to better track quick lateral moves by PFs than Nicholson.
Nicholson is the safer pick, is more ready to contribute, and may end up as the better player long-term.
Quincy Miller projects as better at creating his own shot as either a 3 or a 4, because of his better athleticism, clever ball handling, use of pump fakes, and long pivot steps to get his shot off. His post game isn't as finely honed as Nicholson's, but he has an obvious talent for it, and got some good experience at PF this year against top college competition all year.
As smooth as Nicholson's post game is, I think he is going to have a difficult time getting his shot off down low against most NBA PFs. He should still end up as a great spot up shooter from even NBA range, but he'll have a hard time taking NBA PFs off the dribble because of his sub-par athleticism.
As ManUp just pointed out in another thread, the Celtics may have a logjam at PF next year. Wilcox, Bass, Williams, Johnson, Garnett, and possibly Jeff Green, who I'd rank as Bass' equal or better as a PF, even though Green is more of a SF.
With such a logjam at the four (assuming most or all of these guys return), we have little need for an instant contribution from Nicholson.
Because QMiller should be a passable defender at the 3, and because his versatility as a scorer could make him the long-term replacement to Paul Pierce, I can see an argument for taking Miller instead of Nicholson as one of our 2 first rounders. Miller may be able to find a niche getting some minutes at the 3 as a rookie behind Pierce and Green, if Green comes back.
Pierce would be an ideal mentor for Miller, whether or not Miller remains a 3 for the rest of his career. Miller has some of the same herky-jerky scoring style as Pierce, and Miller could also take his lessons from Pierce and apply them as a stretch four down the road.
If Miller had gone back to Baylor with his healed knee and 15-20 more pounds of muscle (he's already put on 10, so not a stretch at all), I think he might have had a better sophomore season than PJ3 had this year, and gone top 5 in next year's draft Miller was the higher ranked player in high school. Food for thought.
Nicholson vs Miller is a very tough question in my opinion, even as Nicholson's stock is apparently rising and Miller's apparently falling.
For the long-term future of the Celtics, Miller may be the better pick for the Celtics, even if he washes out as a SF because of foot speed on defense.
Can't wait to hear about Miller's defense against other 3s in workouts, and can't wait to get a better idea of what our roster is going to look like at the PF position next year.
Miller + a center would be perfectly acceptable to me, especially if we have a glut at 4 next year.
Here's video of each.
Imagine these same moves with 20 more pounds of muscle, which is what Miller will have by his second season in the NBA. The NBA is more spread out than college, meaning Miller will have more room to break down his man and hit the open teammate when the double team comes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhnOApGV3QMHere's what Miller looks like with the added 10 pounds and a better knee. Still just a baby in development terms:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZdq6lodXpkQMiller, Combine chatter
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKJvXmIpmekHere's Nicholson's post season brilliance:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAQ9ZqcYFKI&feature=relatedAnd Combine chatter:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsy6EJoFZbk&feature=related