Rebuilt vs Readjust

[Jon]

If there was anyone worth signing this offseason, there'd be a case for rebuilding.  But there's no one.  So for the time, being the plan should clearly be to readjust.  

And I think it could really work well.  

Bring back Ray and KG on 1-2 year deals.  Ideally bring back Green, Pietrus, and Bass on 1-2 year deals (though that'll be harder).  Keep the culture of hard work, strong defense, and team work in place.  

Develop Bradley, Green, JJJ, Moore, and the rookies.  

Then in a year or two when the Big Three leave, you have young players who learned the game the right way, have playoff experience, and have value.  We can then either build around them with Rondo or look to trade some of them as we did in 2007.  All the while we maintain cap flexibility for either a trade or a free agent run.  

Blowing it up now makes little sense.  It'd bringing the losing culture back to Boston, sour our free agent reputation further, and simply tempt Ainge to make a stupid free agent signing like Joe Dumars did a few years back with Gordon and Villanueva.  

[drogbagarnett]

If there was anyone worth signing this offseason, there'd be a case for rebuilding.  But there's no one.  So for the time, being the plan should clearly be to readjust.  

And I think it could really work well.  

Bring back Ray and KG on 1-2 year deals.  Ideally bring back Green, Pietrus, and Bass on 1-2 year deals (though that'll be harder).  Keep the culture of hard work, strong defense, and team work in place.  

Develop Bradley, Green, JJJ, Moore, and the rookies.  

Then in a year or two when the Big Three leave, you have young players who learned the game the right way, have playoff experience, and have value.  We can then either build around them with Rondo or look to trade some of them as we did in 2007.  All the while we maintain cap flexibility for either a trade or a free agent run.  

Blowing it up now makes little sense.  It'd bringing the losing culture back to Boston, sour our free agent reputation further, and simply tempt Ainge to make a stupid free agent signing like Joe Dumars did a few years back with Gordon and Villanueva.  

I do understand your point but let me say that Harden and J Smith are definite upgrades compared to Gordon and Villanueva!

[popcontest]

Look at the box score from Game 7:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/boxscore?gid=2012060914

You'd take those shooting numbers from the C's starters every night.

Rondo - 10-22   
Allen - 5-11
Garnett - 6-12
Pierce - 7-18
Bass - 6-8

Hard to beat any team who's starters play like that. Unless...you don't have a bench.

Look at that box score. The Celtics only had 6 players left to play. Decimated by injuries, yes. But it wasn't the old guys who were getting hurt -- it was the sub-30 year olds. That's unlikely to happen again.

I'm all for bringing back the starters (plus Pietrus and Green) for one more year -- and getting a healthy bench who can give real minutes...and you've got a shot at getting back to the ECF and maybe the finals...and you shouldn't have to mortgage the future for that shot either. One more year...let's do this.

[Meadowlark_Scal]

After such an emotional ending of a critical season, we are now left to think about how we can make a somewhat smooth transition to the post Big 3 era...

There are two options available for the Celtics decision makers right now:

Rebuilt and quickly turn into our futur and let the Big 3 go.
Readjust and bring the band back together with the addition of a few strategic weapons.

Here is what I personally think we could do for each one of these scenarios:

MY Scenario 1 : REBUILT

*Players to let go:
In this scenario I would basically let Ray and KG go (basically freeing up about 31 millions) as well as  Pietrus, Quisy, Hollins (Another 5m saved)

*Trades:
Only one big trade!
Trade Paul Pierce + B Bass (Sign and trade) to ATL for Josh Smith + Marvin Williams (Amnesty?). ATL would get rid of Marvin Williams contract and let J Smith finally go like he requested and get in return an all star SF, a go-to scorer and 3 pt threat in Pierce and a good young PF who started for a contender and has excellent mid range J.

*The Draft:
This is simple: Andrew Nicholson and Jeff Taylor

*The Free Agents:
With the money saved (> 36m) Try to get :
-James Harden (franchise player money, anywhere between 15-20m per year for 4 years so OKC can't match)
-Kaman (6-9m per year for 1 or 2 years)
-Jeff Green (post surgery discount ~ 4m)
-Wilcox (Post surgery discount ~ vet min)


In this scenario we would have the following 2013 roster:

Starting 5:
Rondo + Harden + J Green + J Smith + Kaman

Bench:
Dooling + Bradley + Jeff Taylor + Nicholson + Stiemsma
Moore + Pavlovic + Marvin Williams (Amnesty?)+ Wilcox + Sean Williams

A few Comments:

You can have M Williams and Wilcox ahead of the rookies if they need time to develop...

No more Big 3 but still capable of making a lot of noise in the playoff in my opinion and be contender once the team gel!!! Future can look bright while present without Big 3 is quite good...


MY Scenario 2 : READJUST

In this scenario, we need our returning players to sacrifice MONEY for the greater good of winning a championship together!!
I know nobody thinks they will value returning for cheap instead of just cashing some more money or trying for a better chance at a ring somewhere else but I do think the Celtics mystic got into those super rich already accomplished super star players and they will come back at a discount...

*Players to let go:
Dooling, Pavlovic, Quisy, Hollins, Sean williams. (about 7m in savings)

*Returning players Discounts:
KG from 21 to 8m (Celtics discount)
Ray from 10 to 6m (Celtics discount)
J Green from 9 to 4m (Post surgery discount)
Wilcox from 3 to vet min (Post surgery discount
Every other returning players at the current deals...

*Draft
Again I want Andrew Nicholson and Jeff Taylor (if T. Ross doesn't slide to us...)

*Trades:
JJJ + 2nd Rounder for a 1st Rounder next year...
So when/if the big 3 actually retires we will have a few tools to use...)

*Free Agents:
Andre Miller (6-8m)
Kaman (or Humphries)(8-10m)


In this scenario we would have the following 2013 roster:

Starting 5:
Rondo + Bradley + Pierce + Nicholson + KG

Bench:
A. Miller + Ray Allen + J Green + Bass + Kaman
Moore + Pietrus + J Taylor + Wilcox + Stiemsma

A few Comments:

Cost:
This is basically keeping the same team with players returning at a discount and adding J Green, two Rookies and two Vets!
I think we can afford it :
J Green (4m ) + A miller (8m) + Kaman (or Humphries) (10m) for 22m in total that can be covered by savings from KG (13m), Ray (4m) and the other players gone (7m) for a total of 24m..
Wilcox vet min and JJJ 2nd year rookie deal savings could cancel each other...

Draft:
I would draft Andrew Nicholson as a PRIORITY! and will throw him in the starting 5 to accelerate his development and cover him defensively with KG on his side so he can learn D quickly!!
If we can somehow get Terrence Ross (saw couple of mock draft where he slided to the 20s), then I slide Pietrus at the 3. Otherwise I would draft Jeff Taylor's size, 3 pt shooting and defense as our back up 3 of the future.

Starters:
The starting 5 will be the same as the one during the surge in the 2nd half of the season except for Bass who will be replaced by Nicholson... Maybe give up a little more point defensively but it would give us 2 new options offensively:
1) A 3-point shooting big and
2) A Low post scoring big a la AL Jefferson.

Options:
Such a team would have PLENTY of options :
3 pt shooting: (Ray, Pierce, Moore, Pietrus, Green, Nicholson)
Defense: (Rondo, Bradley, J Taylor, Pietrus, KG, Stiemsma)
Athleticism: (Rondo, Bradley, Taylor, Green, Wilcox)
Vet Experience: (Miller, Ray, Pierce, Wilcox, Garnett, Kaman)
Youth: (Rondo, Moore, Bradley, Green, Taylor, Nicholson, Stiemsma)
Post up: (Miller, Pierce, Green, Nicholson, Kaman)
Mid range J: (Miller, Bradley, Pierce, Bass, Garnett, Kaman)

Conclusion:
This is a very realistic scenario in terms of the Draft (most mock Drafts have A Nicholson and J Taylor in the early 20s..) and somewhat realistic in terms of the free agents (J Green, A Miller and Kaman). A Miller would be the difficult one here but still doable... Rebounding would still need to be a focus but such a team could line up a lot of combinaisons/mismatches offensively! Almost everything would work!!! Rondo would have all the options he can wish for!! Whether it's running or defense, or 3pt shooting, or post up or mid range shooting, etc... We would be competitive NOW and we will be competitive in the years to come (if we manage to adequately replace The retiring big 3 with one big super star or two average big stars!).

What do you think..?? :-)

I personally like Option 2 a lot!!

Ya know...i gotta give you a tp just for the homework alone....and even a bigmouth like me has no comment to add, you covered a lot of good angles there..and filled in good with some small money big guys...i like that...( i still wish doc would discover the love of rebounding....it IS a beautiful thing..leon powe and rodman, k love..masters at it...!)

[tyrone biggums]

The one thing I would change from the OP's strategy on option 2. I would package the 21st and 22nd picks to Milwaukee who should make that deal since they have a few big holes to fill and then I would use that pick on a falling Jared Sullinger. He's 6'9 but in the East he's not a bad size for a power forward and could learn quite a bit from KG.

Other than that I would use that MLE on a solid center, I doubt Kaman would take that little but if they could grab him with it great. But worst case scenario split it up between a few players and bring in a backup center like Aaron Gray in to compete with Steamer.

[chambers]

Very simply, if KG's back they're readjusting.

If he's not, they're rebuilding.

100% correct.
Also you can't amnesty Marvin Williams.
Must be players on your roster when rule was created.

[prov1ml34]

I've always been under the impression that Harden is a RESTRICTED free agent after the 2012-2013 season. This means:

1) We can't sign him this summer

2) OKC can (AND WILL) match any and every offer Harden receives. No way he leaves OKC, the owner has come out and said he is willing to go into the luxury tax now just to keep the team intact.

[thenotoriousjts]

I'm cool with either but consider this for rebuilding: We have Rondo, Bradley, Moore, Green, hopefully Bass, and JJJ. We also have the #21 and #22 picks which could possibly become the #13-ish pick. What's the connection? Youth. Also, there's a lot of talent in group. I would say the highest potential is in JJJ now that we've fully unleashed Rondo and we know Bradley is gonna be great. We would also have all the money in the world to spend on a center. I love KG, PP, and Ray and would be thrilled to see them back but we have the tools to rebuild right in front of us.

[tyrone biggums]

I'm cool with either but consider this for rebuilding: We have Rondo, Bradley, Moore, Green, hopefully Bass, and JJJ. We also have the #21 and #22 picks which could possibly become the #13-ish pick. What's the connection? Youth. Also, there's a lot of talent in group. I would say the highest potential is in JJJ now that we've fully unleashed Rondo and we know Bradley is gonna be great. We would also have all the money in the world to spend on a center. I love KG, PP, and Ray and would be thrilled to see them back but we have the tools to rebuild right in front of us.

We also have the ability to trade up into the lottery and get a high draft pick that can come in and give the big three a breather. Keep them around so the youngsters can learn how to be professionals

[Celtics4ever]

I just don't see a team trading a lotto pick for 21 and 22 though.  What else is it going to take?

[cman88]

the thing is, Kevin Garnett is probably the best Free agent option out there for us this summer if we want to spend money.

this is not a great free agent class...so you resign KG to a 1 or 2 year deal, bring in Jeff Green, bass, wilcox...and try and make a go for it again.

unfortunately I dont think Ray allen will be along for the ride however...

[More Banners]

I'm cool with either but consider this for rebuilding: We have Rondo, Bradley, Moore, Green, hopefully Bass, and JJJ. We also have the #21 and #22 picks which could possibly become the #13-ish pick. What's the connection? Youth. Also, there's a lot of talent in group. I would say the highest potential is in JJJ now that we've fully unleashed Rondo and we know Bradley is gonna be great. We would also have all the money in the world to spend on a center. I love KG, PP, and Ray and would be thrilled to see them back but we have the tools to rebuild right in front of us.

We also have the ability to trade up into the lottery and get a high draft pick that can come in and give the big three a breather. Keep them around so the youngsters can learn how to be professionals

And this could be key.

The thing that's really missing is someone to take "the shot" or can create his own (with PP fading, no pun intended).  Getting that player in the draft would be fantastic, assuming it increases Pierce's rest quite a bit.

I like our supporting young players, but that's what I see...a supporting cast in the waiting.

Ensembles rarely win it all, but we could have a solid one.

We need a go-to scorer, though, or it might just be for show.

I like Rondo/Bradley/Daniels at the guards, Pierce, JGreen, Bass, and JJJ at the Forwards, and KG and Wilcox at Center next year just fine, though.  I don't really want to give any of them up to make a marginal improvement at one spot.

But I suppose the smart thing to do is swing for that superscorer/star and settle for adjusting if no star appears.  I don't think there will be much time to make that decision when things start happening.

I think we go over the cap for a couple of years if KG comes back, resigning Bass, JGreen, and Wilcox to 2 year deals to match KG's.  Bass, Green, and Wilcox each take 2/$11M and KG takes 2/25M.  I think we can sign a MLE FA for 5M as well.

We all wait for KG...

[mctyson]

I said option #1 - rebuild without Big 3.

I think we all have to accept the possibility that KG and Ray will not take dramatic hometown discounts.  I certainly don't think Ray will given that Danny almost traded him.  If there is nowhere else to put the cap space money then by all means bring Ray back at $8-10M next year, for one year.  But I doubt that will be the case.  I see some other contender giving Ray at least 2 years.

I posted this earlier but I am going to slightly revise my position and say we can "Rebuild through Adjusting." 

If I am Danny I spend the next month engaging Atlanta on how serious they are about committing long term to Josh Smith.  If I can get any sense that ATL will trade him for the right package, I work them hard.  I cannot imagine ATL trading Smith within conference, but if we offered both 2012 1st rounders, another future 1st rounder, and Jeff Green via sign-and-trade, would that get it done?

We then lock Smith up until at least 2015 (unless he wants max money, then I wouldn't do this trade.)  That gives us a nucleus of Rondo-Bradley-JSmith for the next three seasons, otherwise known as The Best Defensive 1-2-3 punch in the NBA.

We still have Pierce under contract until 2014.

We let Ray walk, and use his money to extend Smith.

I then sell a Rondo-Bradley-Pierce-JSmith 2-year run coached by Doc to KG.  He will be hurt that Ray is gone, but having Smith on the roster takes a tremendous amount of pressure off him.   Maybe KG signs up for 1 year with an option for #2. If KG re-ups we have the best defensive team in the NBA, and no one else is even close.  This gives us a shot at the Finals for at least 1 more year if not 2.

After 2014 Pierce and KG come off the books completely, and we are back to being loaded with cap space again.  At this point Rondo and Smith are in the last years of their deals (2015) but still are in their basketball primes.  We have the flexibility of trading two All Star expiring contracts for young talents and picks if need be, and completely overhaul the roster.

We build a young nucleus for the 2016/2017 season, and save enough cap space to throw the motherload at Kevin Durant, who will turn 28 at the beginning of that year. 

[Boris Badenov]

I have a bad feeling about next year.

I think that injuries for other teams (Rose and Noah in particular, Horford and Smith, Bosh) has given us an exaggerated sense of how good we were this year. If Rose and Noah are healthy, we get smoked in the second round. Heck, ATL might have beaten us with a healthy Horford and Smith.

And yes, you can say that injuries were an issue for us too. But realistically, the chances of keeping KG and PP healthy for another whole season are extremely low. The odds that Ray Allen, Avery Bradley and Jeff Green could all come back after major injuries are very low.

I fear that if we bring this team back, we are in for a hugely disappointing year.

I'd much rather remember 2012 as the last stand for this team. It was a good run, all things considered.

[cltc5]

I have a bad feeling about next year.

I think that injuries for other teams (Rose and Noah in particular, Horford and Smith, Bosh) has given us an exaggerated sense of how good we were this year. If Rose and Noah are healthy, we get smoked in the second round. Heck, ATL might have beaten us with a healthy Horford and Smith.

And yes, you can say that injuries were an issue for us too. But realistically, the chances of keeping KG and PP healthy for another whole season are extremely low. The odds that Ray Allen, Avery Bradley and Jeff Green could all come back after major injuries are very low.

I fear that if we bring this team back, we are in for a hugely disappointing year.

I'd much rather remember 2012 as the last stand for this team. It was a good run, all things considered.

Good points, buuuuut, remember we did take the Heat to 7 games( we shoulda ended the series in 5 or 6), a team lauded to win the East and even the title this year, so we did that on bum wheels and reserves.  This team has heart, but that's not gonna be enough to push us through 82 games and a temultuos playoff run again.  We MUST get younger and more athletic.  And it is imperative that Doc get these guys developed!