Confirmation Bias

[NoraG1]

Unfortunately, I do not have time (nor honestly probably the knowledge or skill) to do this, but...

I just have a hard time believing conspiracies or bias really consistently affecting the way games are called. I tend to think stars shoot a lot of foul shots for 2 reasons:
1. They have the ball a lot, so they get fouled a lot.
2. They are more athletic, and thus can put themselves into places where the defense must foul or let them score. They are stars because they possess the qualities that make them better at basketball, including drawing fouls, not that fouls are called for them because they are considered "stars."
Same idea for defense. More skilled players can defend without fouling.

I also believe calls are missed. Some fouls are not called, and some non-fouls are called fouls. I genuinely believe that fans are extraordinarily poor at judging missed and made calls. They grudgingly acknowledge correct calls that go against their own team, scream bloody murder at missed calls that cost their team, and are utterly terrible at acknowledging the 50/50 aspect of 50/50 calls.

We Celtic fans complain about fouls without acknowledging just how many times Lebron is fouled and not called, just how many times KG travels or pushes in the back or sets an illegal screen...I mean only a certain percentage of infractions are whistled.

So back to the original point:
-Calls are missed.
-Only a certain percentage of fouls/infractions are called.
-Fans are very very poor at accurately judging 50/50 calls and acknowledging calls that go their own way.
-Until someone who has NO rooting stake in either team does a systematic review, and watches several games, and catalogs very carefully correct, missed calls for, and missed calls against, (including correct non-calls, correct calls, incorrect calls and incorrect non-calls) and can therefore demonstrate that certain teams or players are benefiting, I just have a hard time believing it.

I mean, the celtics commit a LOT of fouls that aren't called, and are probably among the leagues WORST at talking to refs. So they get a lot of T's and a fair number of fouls, but it's still a small percentage of fouls and cursing that's getting called.

How can 3 refs miss the Rondo getting hit in the face when he takes a shot? HOW? I don't mind a few ticky tack fouls being missed if it is done on BOTH sides for BOTH teams. Is having things called the same way on both ends too much to ask? In the NBA the answer apparently is yes.  But to miss that call there is no logical explanation.

[guava_wrench]

I just don't even know what to be mad about the refs, the rules in place, or Stern.

The rules in place suck because you can make up whatever calls you want to make whenever there is contact whatsoever.  Refs suck because they are never consistent in any way during these games. Stern sucks for all of the above. I know all he cares about is money but I truly wonder if there is any other motivational factor

What you can be mad about is that Stern's personal bias tilts towards money and away from quality.  He could say to himself, for example, well we want the league to make money but not at the expense of quality or fairness.  He could then follow that inner conviction to set up true standards for refs who don't achieve quality, via their eyes, judgement and impartiality.

This is not how Stern operates, however.  He either:

A: Is blind to quality reffing because his inner fan just loves them superstars
B: Isn't worried about quality reffing because the league gets richer when stars make the finals
C: Doesn't know what quality reffing looks like, and so sees no problem.
D: A mix of A and C or all of the above.

B makes the most sense to me.
And it's pretty clear he has a low opinion of the intelligence of fans.

E: The reffing is about as good as it is going to get due to human limitations and the speed of the game.

I always wonder who people think we are going to get to replace these guys who can handle the speed of the game and the multiple obligations of each ref at any moment.

The human eye and the human brain can't focus on much in our field of view. It is impossible for refs to catch clearly much of what they would need to for complete implementation of all rules. They also don't have replay every play. When we watch replay, *we know what too look for*. Even then, I looked at the wrong thing in the first replace of the KG foul on Wade at the end of game 2. I was looking for the kick, which seemed even more obvious on the replay than when I first watched. On the second replay, I watched KG's hands and my indignation went away when I saw that KG did in fact foul Wade before the kick made content. In fact, KG's foul also caused Wade's body to rotate with his foot rotating forward more.

The main problem with the refs is the fact that they are human, fans are heavily invested in the game and we also have slo-mo replay. We also have millions of fans watching focusing all over the screen while watching while there are only 3 refs who can only focus on 3 locations at any point in time. Add to this the many optical illusions that lighting and depth perception adds as refs try to evaluate if a defender makes contact on the arm of a jump shooter or who knocked a ball out of bounds.

Sadly, all refs in all sports will always have heuristics that they use to compensate for the limitations of their perceptual ability.

[guava_wrench]

Unfortunately, I do not have time (nor honestly probably the knowledge or skill) to do this, but...

I just have a hard time believing conspiracies or bias really consistently affecting the way games are called. I tend to think stars shoot a lot of foul shots for 2 reasons:
1. They have the ball a lot, so they get fouled a lot.
2. They are more athletic, and thus can put themselves into places where the defense must foul or let them score. They are stars because they possess the qualities that make them better at basketball, including drawing fouls, not that fouls are called for them because they are considered "stars."
Same idea for defense. More skilled players can defend without fouling.

I also believe calls are missed. Some fouls are not called, and some non-fouls are called fouls. I genuinely believe that fans are extraordinarily poor at judging missed and made calls. They grudgingly acknowledge correct calls that go against their own team, scream bloody murder at missed calls that cost their team, and are utterly terrible at acknowledging the 50/50 aspect of 50/50 calls.

We Celtic fans complain about fouls without acknowledging just how many times Lebron is fouled and not called, just how many times KG travels or pushes in the back or sets an illegal screen...I mean only a certain percentage of infractions are whistled.

So back to the original point:
-Calls are missed.
-Only a certain percentage of fouls/infractions are called.
-Fans are very very poor at accurately judging 50/50 calls and acknowledging calls that go their own way.
-Until someone who has NO rooting stake in either team does a systematic review, and watches several games, and catalogs very carefully correct, missed calls for, and missed calls against, (including correct non-calls, correct calls, incorrect calls and incorrect non-calls) and can therefore demonstrate that certain teams or players are benefiting, I just have a hard time believing it.

I mean, the celtics commit a LOT of fouls that aren't called, and are probably among the leagues WORST at talking to refs. So they get a lot of T's and a fair number of fouls, but it's still a small percentage of fouls and cursing that's getting called.

How can 3 refs miss the Rondo getting hit in the face when he takes a shot? HOW? I don't mind a few ticky tack fouls being missed if it is done on BOTH sides for BOTH teams. Is having things called the same way on both ends too much to ask? In the NBA the answer apparently is yes.  But to miss that call there is no logical explanation.

Because there are 8 other guys on the court other than those 2 plus a ball in the air, and they also have to pay attention to the entire bodies of the 2 players. They also cannot see through players that might obstruct their view, include Wade's head and torso.

There are so many logical explanations. You just aren't trying to understand the complexity of reffing.

[NoraG1]

Unfortunately, I do not have time (nor honestly probably the knowledge or skill) to do this, but...

I just have a hard time believing conspiracies or bias really consistently affecting the way games are called. I tend to think stars shoot a lot of foul shots for 2 reasons:
1. They have the ball a lot, so they get fouled a lot.
2. They are more athletic, and thus can put themselves into places where the defense must foul or let them score. They are stars because they possess the qualities that make them better at basketball, including drawing fouls, not that fouls are called for them because they are considered "stars."
Same idea for defense. More skilled players can defend without fouling.

I also believe calls are missed. Some fouls are not called, and some non-fouls are called fouls. I genuinely believe that fans are extraordinarily poor at judging missed and made calls. They grudgingly acknowledge correct calls that go against their own team, scream bloody murder at missed calls that cost their team, and are utterly terrible at acknowledging the 50/50 aspect of 50/50 calls.

We Celtic fans complain about fouls without acknowledging just how many times Lebron is fouled and not called, just how many times KG travels or pushes in the back or sets an illegal screen...I mean only a certain percentage of infractions are whistled.

So back to the original point:
-Calls are missed.
-Only a certain percentage of fouls/infractions are called.
-Fans are very very poor at accurately judging 50/50 calls and acknowledging calls that go their own way.
-Until someone who has NO rooting stake in either team does a systematic review, and watches several games, and catalogs very carefully correct, missed calls for, and missed calls against, (including correct non-calls, correct calls, incorrect calls and incorrect non-calls) and can therefore demonstrate that certain teams or players are benefiting, I just have a hard time believing it.

I mean, the celtics commit a LOT of fouls that aren't called, and are probably among the leagues WORST at talking to refs. So they get a lot of T's and a fair number of fouls, but it's still a small percentage of fouls and cursing that's getting called.

How can 3 refs miss the Rondo getting hit in the face when he takes a shot? HOW? I don't mind a few ticky tack fouls being missed if it is done on BOTH sides for BOTH teams. Is having things called the same way on both ends too much to ask? In the NBA the answer apparently is yes.  But to miss that call there is no logical explanation.

Because there are 8 other guys on the court other than those 2 plus a ball in the air, and they also have to pay attention to the entire bodies of the 2 players. They also cannot see through players that might obstruct their view, include Wade's head and torso.

There are so many logical explanations. You just aren't trying to understand the complexity of reffing.

No, you just give the refs way too much credit. When things are lopsided in one teams favor when they went to the hoop the same amount there is something WRONG. Refs convieniently made their 'mistakes' be fouls against the Celtics by a huge amount in game 2! There is no way anyone can justify it imo.

[Terry3]

fantastic

[Fan from VT]

Unfortunately, I do not have time (nor honestly probably the knowledge or skill) to do this, but...

I just have a hard time believing conspiracies or bias really consistently affecting the way games are called. I tend to think stars shoot a lot of foul shots for 2 reasons:
1. They have the ball a lot, so they get fouled a lot.
2. They are more athletic, and thus can put themselves into places where the defense must foul or let them score. They are stars because they possess the qualities that make them better at basketball, including drawing fouls, not that fouls are called for them because they are considered "stars."
Same idea for defense. More skilled players can defend without fouling.

I also believe calls are missed. Some fouls are not called, and some non-fouls are called fouls. I genuinely believe that fans are extraordinarily poor at judging missed and made calls. They grudgingly acknowledge correct calls that go against their own team, scream bloody murder at missed calls that cost their team, and are utterly terrible at acknowledging the 50/50 aspect of 50/50 calls.

We Celtic fans complain about fouls without acknowledging just how many times Lebron is fouled and not called, just how many times KG travels or pushes in the back or sets an illegal screen...I mean only a certain percentage of infractions are whistled.

So back to the original point:
-Calls are missed.
-Only a certain percentage of fouls/infractions are called.
-Fans are very very poor at accurately judging 50/50 calls and acknowledging calls that go their own way.
-Until someone who has NO rooting stake in either team does a systematic review, and watches several games, and catalogs very carefully correct, missed calls for, and missed calls against, (including correct non-calls, correct calls, incorrect calls and incorrect non-calls) and can therefore demonstrate that certain teams or players are benefiting, I just have a hard time believing it.

I mean, the celtics commit a LOT of fouls that aren't called, and are probably among the leagues WORST at talking to refs. So they get a lot of T's and a fair number of fouls, but it's still a small percentage of fouls and cursing that's getting called.

How can 3 refs miss the Rondo getting hit in the face when he takes a shot? HOW? I don't mind a few ticky tack fouls being missed if it is done on BOTH sides for BOTH teams. Is having things called the same way on both ends too much to ask? In the NBA the answer apparently is yes.  But to miss that call there is no logical explanation.

Because there are 8 other guys on the court other than those 2 plus a ball in the air, and they also have to pay attention to the entire bodies of the 2 players. They also cannot see through players that might obstruct their view, include Wade's head and torso.

There are so many logical explanations. You just aren't trying to understand the complexity of reffing.

No, you just give the refs way too much credit. When things are lopsided in one teams favor when they went to the hoop the same amount there is something WRONG. Refs convieniently made their 'mistakes' be fouls against the Celtics by a huge amount in game 2! There is no way anyone can justify it imo.

Yes, that was an obvious missed call. But, again, you are a C's fan so you remember it. I cannot take it seriously until someone without bias goes through and ALSO points out the MANY obvious fouls the C's commit that are not called...and there are a lot. Wasn't there a blatant one Rondo committed on Lebron just a few possessions before that wasn't called?

I need to see:
-number of calls that could have been made
-number of calls that probably should have been made
-number of calls that definitely should have been made (the rondo foul)
-number of calls that could not have been made
-number of calls that probably should not have been made
-number of calls that definitely should not have been made

And compared team to team.

I think the C's are both slightly slower on average and play a very aggressive style of defense, so they SHOULD get called for more total fouls. The question is are 30% of their committed fouls being called and only 25% for the Heat or is it 30% for both or whatever.

Same for T's. Rondo is a hothead, Pierce can really get moody, and we all know the only people who like KG are the ones on his team because, frankly, he's a walking technical if refs wanted. If every play just at baseline you give the refs the opportunity to call a T if they wanted, then eventually they are going to call a few when you escalate from your already jerkish baseline.

[RebusRankin]

LBJ doesn't whine and run his mouth? Wade? Spoelstra hasn't done the same or worse than Doc?

[Eja117]

Sometimes it is incredibly incredibly easy to end conspiracy theories. Here's the birth certificate right here. Boom. Done. The NBA fines players and coaches for suggesting anything can be wrong. That's like what they do in China. What? How dare you insult the communist party! To the gulag!  Is that ok?

I'm not getting this at all. Because baseball teams can spend a lot of money it's ok if NBA officiating is either incompetent or corrupt? 

Your example shows that it is impossible to end conspiracy theories. Donald Trump is still spouting this drivel after already being shown the certificate. If people want to believe something, they will.

There is also nothing to show in the case of no ref conspiracy. How can you show proof of nothing?

The logic of the fine is that complaining about perceived missed calls goes nowhere. Ref will always have missed calls and players will always believe there are missed calls where there aren't.

While Donald is an idiot the point is it could have been nipped in the bud a loooonnnnggg time ago. Now when his Harvard profile comes out and it says he was born in Kenya he's in way more trouble than he would have been had he just been like "Oh yeah. Sure. Here ya go. Nothing to hide." 

[Thruthelookingglass]

Sometimes it is incredibly incredibly easy to end conspiracy theories. Here's the birth certificate right here. Boom. Done. The NBA fines players and coaches for suggesting anything can be wrong. That's like what they do in China. What? How dare you insult the communist party! To the gulag!  Is that ok?

I'm not getting this at all. Because baseball teams can spend a lot of money it's ok if NBA officiating is either incompetent or corrupt?  

Your example shows that it is impossible to end conspiracy theories. Donald Trump is still spouting this drivel after already being shown the certificate. If people want to believe something, they will.

There is also nothing to show in the case of no ref conspiracy. How can you show proof of nothing?

The logic of the fine is that complaining about perceived missed calls goes nowhere. Ref will always have missed calls and players will always believe there are missed calls where there aren't.

While Donald is an idiot the point is it could have been nipped in the bud a loooonnnnggg time ago. Now when his Harvard profile comes out and it says he was born in Kenya he's in way more trouble than he would have been had he just been like "Oh yeah. Sure. Here ya go. Nothing to hide."  

Brilliant -- that nonsequitur really got me!!!     As far as speed of game goes . . . why are several of our NBA refs so long in the tooth?  Couldn't you find some spryer folks?

[Celtics18]

Sometimes it is incredibly incredibly easy to end conspiracy theories. Here's the birth certificate right here. Boom. Done. The NBA fines players and coaches for suggesting anything can be wrong. That's like what they do in China. What? How dare you insult the communist party! To the gulag!  Is that ok?

I'm not getting this at all. Because baseball teams can spend a lot of money it's ok if NBA officiating is either incompetent or corrupt?  

Your example shows that it is impossible to end conspiracy theories. Donald Trump is still spouting this drivel after already being shown the certificate. If people want to believe something, they will.

There is also nothing to show in the case of no ref conspiracy. How can you show proof of nothing?

The logic of the fine is that complaining about perceived missed calls goes nowhere. Ref will always have missed calls and players will always believe there are missed calls where there aren't.

While Donald is an idiot the point is it could have been nipped in the bud a loooonnnnggg time ago. Now when his Harvard profile comes out and it says he was born in Kenya he's in way more trouble than he would have been had he just been like "Oh yeah. Sure. Here ya go. Nothing to hide."  

Brilliant -- that nonsequitur really got me!!!     As far as speed of game goes . . . why are several of our NBA refs so long in the tooth?  Couldn't you find some spryer folks?

I hear ya.  It doesn't really seem like a job for old men.

[guava_wrench]

Unfortunately, I do not have time (nor honestly probably the knowledge or skill) to do this, but...

I just have a hard time believing conspiracies or bias really consistently affecting the way games are called. I tend to think stars shoot a lot of foul shots for 2 reasons:
1. They have the ball a lot, so they get fouled a lot.
2. They are more athletic, and thus can put themselves into places where the defense must foul or let them score. They are stars because they possess the qualities that make them better at basketball, including drawing fouls, not that fouls are called for them because they are considered "stars."
Same idea for defense. More skilled players can defend without fouling.

I also believe calls are missed. Some fouls are not called, and some non-fouls are called fouls. I genuinely believe that fans are extraordinarily poor at judging missed and made calls. They grudgingly acknowledge correct calls that go against their own team, scream bloody murder at missed calls that cost their team, and are utterly terrible at acknowledging the 50/50 aspect of 50/50 calls.

We Celtic fans complain about fouls without acknowledging just how many times Lebron is fouled and not called, just how many times KG travels or pushes in the back or sets an illegal screen...I mean only a certain percentage of infractions are whistled.

So back to the original point:
-Calls are missed.
-Only a certain percentage of fouls/infractions are called.
-Fans are very very poor at accurately judging 50/50 calls and acknowledging calls that go their own way.
-Until someone who has NO rooting stake in either team does a systematic review, and watches several games, and catalogs very carefully correct, missed calls for, and missed calls against, (including correct non-calls, correct calls, incorrect calls and incorrect non-calls) and can therefore demonstrate that certain teams or players are benefiting, I just have a hard time believing it.

I mean, the celtics commit a LOT of fouls that aren't called, and are probably among the leagues WORST at talking to refs. So they get a lot of T's and a fair number of fouls, but it's still a small percentage of fouls and cursing that's getting called.

How can 3 refs miss the Rondo getting hit in the face when he takes a shot? HOW? I don't mind a few ticky tack fouls being missed if it is done on BOTH sides for BOTH teams. Is having things called the same way on both ends too much to ask? In the NBA the answer apparently is yes.  But to miss that call there is no logical explanation.

Because there are 8 other guys on the court other than those 2 plus a ball in the air, and they also have to pay attention to the entire bodies of the 2 players. They also cannot see through players that might obstruct their view, include Wade's head and torso.

There are so many logical explanations. You just aren't trying to understand the complexity of reffing.

No, you just give the refs way too much credit. When things are lopsided in one teams favor when they went to the hoop the same amount there is something WRONG. Refs convieniently made their 'mistakes' be fouls against the Celtics by a huge amount in game 2! There is no way anyone can justify it imo.

Citing raw numbers means nothing and vague generalizations mean nothing.

[Russell1]

Thanks for sharing.