Confirmation Bias

[wiley]

I just don't even know what to be mad about the refs, the rules in place, or Stern.

The rules in place suck because you can make up whatever calls you want to make whenever there is contact whatsoever.  Refs suck because they are never consistent in any way during these games. Stern sucks for all of the above. I know all he cares about is money but I truly wonder if there is any other motivational factor

What you can be mad about is that Stern's personal bias tilts towards money and away from quality.  He could say to himself, for example, well we want the league to make money but not at the expense of quality or fairness.  He could then follow that inner conviction to set up true standards for refs who don't achieve quality, via their eyes, judgement and impartiality.

This is not how Stern operates, however.  He either:

A: Is blind to quality reffing because his inner fan just loves them superstars
B: Isn't worried about quality reffing because the league gets richer when stars make the finals
C: Doesn't know what quality reffing looks like, and so sees no problem.
D: A mix of A and C or all of the above.

B makes the most sense to me.
And it's pretty clear he has a low opinion of the intelligence of fans.

[angryguy77]

Well you seem to make a point that this is just fallibility. However, if that was the problem then the calls would indeed even out and any griping about it would indeed be silly.

The calls have not evened out. So if this is just natural human error, why for 101 minutes have the calls been so helpful to Miami? Did Boston really do that to themselves?

In a way, Miami does make it uneven, due to the aggressive nature of their play. When players like LeBron drive to the hoop so many times in a game, they increase the likelihood that a mistake can be made.

Then why didn't they make the same mistakes for us last game seeing that we had nearly as many shot attempts at the hoop as miami?

How is it that Lebron can go quarters at a time without getting a foul? Nobody is that consistently perfect.

If this is just human error(which it could be)the league has to fix it. Their refusal to address the problem that they are aware of is almost as bad as intentionally trying to fix a game.

[Lucky17]

I think it's laughable (but not in a good way) that sportscasters like Reggie Miller and Steve Kerr recognize, as they did last night, that traveling and palming violations aren't called in the NBA.

The NBA: where selective, inconsistent application of the rules happens.

[CelticG1]

I just don't even know what to be mad about the refs, the rules in place, or Stern.

The rules in place suck because you can make up whatever calls you want to make whenever there is contact whatsoever.  Refs suck because they are never consistent in any way during these games. Stern sucks for all of the above. I know all he cares about is money but I truly wonder if there is any other motivational factor

What you can be mad about is that Stern's personal bias tilts towards money and away from quality.  He could say to himself, for example, well we want the league to make money but not at the expense of quality or fairness.  He could then follow that inner conviction to set up true standards for refs who don't achieve quality, via their eyes, judgement and impartiality.

This is not how Stern operates, however.  He either:

A: Is blind to quality reffing because his inner fan just loves them superstars
B: Isn't worried about quality reffing because the league gets richer when stars make the finals
C: Doesn't know what quality reffing looks like, and so sees no problem.
D: A mix of A and C or all of the above.

B makes the most sense to me.
And it's pretty clear he has a low opinion of the intelligence of fans.

How much can stern discipline the refs? They have a union they must be heavily protected from those sorts of things especially in this case.

I just hate how much officials affect the games. I try and deny it but there's know doubt they have completely affected the history books in the NBA. As time goes by you forget things and people will just remember the final outcomes but when you dig deeper you will always be able to point to them negatively affecting series.

Lakers championship over us and heat championship against dallas are the most recent examples

[LB3533]

I remember when Stern gave his press conference about the TD scandal he said something like "after our internal investigation...we found this to be the sole act of a rogue referring, who committed these vile betting acts."

I knew something was sketchy. TD is not that smart of a guy that he can do something like that all by his lonesome.

Also if you look at the trend of the horrible refs in this league (and creating new/younger horrible refs)....this continued acceptance of this just goes to show you how much power the NBA refs' association has within the NBA.

[Celtics18]

I just don't even know what to be mad about the refs, the rules in place, or Stern.

The rules in place suck because you can make up whatever calls you want to make whenever there is contact whatsoever.  Refs suck because they are never consistent in any way during these games. Stern sucks for all of the above. I know all he cares about is money but I truly wonder if there is any other motivational factor

What you can be mad about is that Stern's personal bias tilts towards money and away from quality.  He could say to himself, for example, well we want the league to make money but not at the expense of quality or fairness.  He could then follow that inner conviction to set up true standards for refs who don't achieve quality, via their eyes, judgement and impartiality.

This is not how Stern operates, however.  He either:

A: Is blind to quality reffing because his inner fan just loves them superstars
B: Isn't worried about quality reffing because the league gets richer when stars make the finals
C: Doesn't know what quality reffing looks like, and so sees no problem.
D: A mix of A and C or all of the above.

B makes the most sense to me.
And it's pretty clear he has a low opinion of the intelligence of fans.

How much can stern discipline the refs? They have a union they must be heavily protected from those sorts of things especially in this case.

The players and coaches have unions too, and they can't mention the refereeing without getting levied fines.  I think the refs' union can be made to comply with some changes to the status quo.  

[Celtics4ever]

Nice read on playoff refs .

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6761

I thought our offensive shut down this game but I felt victim by bad call after bad call this game.  It almost felt like LA went to the line on every miss bailed out by foul shots.

They do some of this horse crap every year and there are statistical anomalies that do not add up.

Right now we are 20 FTAs behind the HEAT.  Our whole team has taken only 17 FTAs more than LeBron.  Personal fouls are 39 for MIA and 52 for us.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/shot-chart/201205280MIA.html

That is the shot chart of the first game.   You can see we got to the hole too which is a myth that non conspiracy guys use.

[Shad0wman]

Great post, thought provoking topic. I couldn't have said it any better.

That said, I'm more than certain that the possibility of corruption in the NBA as evidenced by the calls in those 2 games. I am done with the NBA as I cannot trust them to do the right thing. Its more than heartbreaking to put so much hope, energy and faith in something I'm certain we all love and to have it unjustly ripped from us is basically a crime. We know theres been a ref whos cheated, been in prison and KNOWS that there are cheating refs in the game today.

I've played bball at a high level and when my children are old enough to play I will introduce them to other sports like tennis, etc. i.e sports that arent corrupt and not worth playing for given its propensity to be put into question. I believe, no doubt that the NBA is corrupt.

So, confirmation bias or whatever it may or may not be, I am unable to come to any terms for this in my own mind and heart. I do know that whatever it is, cheating refs, inconsistent play, no heart of a champion left in these C's, for me the only way to be certain is to be done with it.

Sorry for my run on sentences. I'm a lyricist and

[Celtics4ever]

Time to root for our team and hope for some fair calls soon.   We are all C's fans whether we agree or not.

[Neurotic Guy]

I think it's a great point that when we are biased toward an opinion or way of thinking we are hyper-aware of any opportunity to confirm the opinion.  I won't go into details, but this was in great evidence today listening to an Ordway/Holley discussion today -- and in great evidence every time you turn on FOX News or MSNBC.

I don't buy into an NBA conspiracy to promote certain teams over others. But I can see there being enough circumstantial evidence to confirm the belief pf conspiracy for those prone to believing it.

It's interesting in Boston that the belief in surreptitious covert plots to influence games is causing some to leave the NBA while the blatant and overt unfairness in MLB doesn't seem to bother most Bostonians.  It is 'legal' in baseball to have a payroll 4 or 5 times larger than your 'competition' -- giving a dramatic and undeniable competetive advantage to some teams (Boston being one) year after year.   Are people in Boston going to disuade their children from watching the beloved Red Sox because of the crazy advantage a few teams have? I don't think so.

[Eja117]

I think it's a great point that when we are biased toward an opinion or way of thinking we are hyper-aware of any opportunity to confirm the opinion.  I won't go into details, but this was in great evidence today listening to an Ordway/Holley discussion today -- and in great evidence every time you turn on FOX News or MSNBC.

I don't buy into an NBA conspiracy to promote certain teams over others. But I can see there being enough circumstantial evidence to confirm the belief pf conspiracy for those prone to believing it.

It's interesting in Boston that the belief in surreptitious covert plots to influence games is causing some to leave the NBA while the blatant and overt unfairness in MLB doesn't seem to bother most Bostonians.  It is 'legal' in baseball to have a payroll 4 or 5 times larger than your 'competition' -- giving a dramatic and undeniable competetive advantage to some teams (Boston being one) year after year.   Are people in Boston going to disuade their children from watching the beloved Red Sox because of the crazy advantage a few teams have? I don't think so.

Sometimes it is incredibly incredibly easy to end conspiracy theories. Here's the birth certificate right here. Boom. Done. The NBA fines players and coaches for suggesting anything can be wrong. That's like what they do in China. What? How dare you insult the communist party! To the gulag!  Is that ok?

I'm not getting this at all. Because baseball teams can spend a lot of money it's ok if NBA officiating is either incompetent or corrupt? 

[Neurotic Guy]

I think it's a great point that when we are biased toward an opinion or way of thinking we are hyper-aware of any opportunity to confirm the opinion.  I won't go into details, but this was in great evidence today listening to an Ordway/Holley discussion today -- and in great evidence every time you turn on FOX News or MSNBC.

I don't buy into an NBA conspiracy to promote certain teams over others. But I can see there being enough circumstantial evidence to confirm the belief pf conspiracy for those prone to believing it.

It's interesting in Boston that the belief in surreptitious covert plots to influence games is causing some to leave the NBA while the blatant and overt unfairness in MLB doesn't seem to bother most Bostonians.  It is 'legal' in baseball to have a payroll 4 or 5 times larger than your 'competition' -- giving a dramatic and undeniable competetive advantage to some teams (Boston being one) year after year.   Are people in Boston going to disuade their children from watching the beloved Red Sox because of the crazy advantage a few teams have? I don't think so.

Sometimes it is incredibly incredibly easy to end conspiracy theories. Here's the birth certificate right here. Boom. Done. The NBA fines players and coaches for suggesting anything can be wrong. That's like what they do in China. What? How dare you insult the communist party! To the gulag!  Is that ok?

I'm not getting this at all. Because baseball teams can spend a lot of money it's ok if NBA officiating is either incompetent or corrupt? 

I guess I was either inarticulate or you've extrapolated unintended meaning.  Neither baseball injustice nor basketball injustice is OK.  One is overt and an unquestioned reality (baseball), the other is a conspiracy theory and is unproven (basketball). Just because it is unproven doesn't mean it's not real.  And if it is real, it is wrong.

[Fan from VT]

Unfortunately, I do not have time (nor honestly probably the knowledge or skill) to do this, but...

I just have a hard time believing conspiracies or bias really consistently affecting the way games are called. I tend to think stars shoot a lot of foul shots for 2 reasons:
1. They have the ball a lot, so they get fouled a lot.
2. They are more athletic, and thus can put themselves into places where the defense must foul or let them score. They are stars because they possess the qualities that make them better at basketball, including drawing fouls, not that fouls are called for them because they are considered "stars."
Same idea for defense. More skilled players can defend without fouling.

I also believe calls are missed. Some fouls are not called, and some non-fouls are called fouls. I genuinely believe that fans are extraordinarily poor at judging missed and made calls. They grudgingly acknowledge correct calls that go against their own team, scream bloody murder at missed calls that cost their team, and are utterly terrible at acknowledging the 50/50 aspect of 50/50 calls.

We Celtic fans complain about fouls without acknowledging just how many times Lebron is fouled and not called, just how many times KG travels or pushes in the back or sets an illegal screen...I mean only a certain percentage of infractions are whistled.

So back to the original point:
-Calls are missed.
-Only a certain percentage of fouls/infractions are called.
-Fans are very very poor at accurately judging 50/50 calls and acknowledging calls that go their own way.
-Until someone who has NO rooting stake in either team does a systematic review, and watches several games, and catalogs very carefully correct, missed calls for, and missed calls against, (including correct non-calls, correct calls, incorrect calls and incorrect non-calls) and can therefore demonstrate that certain teams or players are benefiting, I just have a hard time believing it.

I mean, the celtics commit a LOT of fouls that aren't called, and are probably among the leagues WORST at talking to refs. So they get a lot of T's and a fair number of fouls, but it's still a small percentage of fouls and cursing that's getting called.

[Celtics4ever]

The demeanor of the refs tonite changed in the fourth.  They called a different game.

[guava_wrench]

Sometimes it is incredibly incredibly easy to end conspiracy theories. Here's the birth certificate right here. Boom. Done. The NBA fines players and coaches for suggesting anything can be wrong. That's like what they do in China. What? How dare you insult the communist party! To the gulag!  Is that ok?

I'm not getting this at all. Because baseball teams can spend a lot of money it's ok if NBA officiating is either incompetent or corrupt? 

Your example shows that it is impossible to end conspiracy theories. Donald Trump is still spouting this drivel after already being shown the certificate. If people want to believe something, they will.

There is also nothing to show in the case of no ref conspiracy. How can you show proof of nothing?

The logic of the fine is that complaining about perceived missed calls goes nowhere. Ref will always have missed calls and players will always believe there are missed calls where there aren't.