Confirmation Bias

[Eja117]

I would loooovvvveeee to start watching a Celts/Heat playoff game and not see evidence of corrupt officiating such as horrid techs and missed calls in critical spots in OT. DIdn't happen. That wasn't me finding or seeking out evidence of what I believe. That's more like I know what I saw. Would love for the refs to prove me wrong. That's up to them. So far. No dice

[tgreanier]

Not buying the original post. Stern had every reason on Earth to sue Tim Donaghy. He had quite a bit of money to find quite a bit of evidence. Didn't do it. Nobody sued him. The FBI didn't charge him with any kind of perjury. Most refs kept pretty quiet.  This isn't "evidence". These are facts.  Gotta suspect Stern didn't want himself or any of his refs to take the stand.

Yup. The sky is blue and I think I found the evidence.  Stern "believes" everything is on the up and up and won't show you the evidence. It's the old...who ya gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes?

I am confused by your comment that you don't agree with my original post. Your comments seem to agree. What am I missing?

I don't buy that people find evidence to confirm their beliefs. People have beliefs because there is evidence.

You don't hear fans here complaining about crooked refs in MLB, the NFL, or NHL. Only the NBA. There are reasons for it.

Also the NBA is the only one that I know of at least recently with a major referee scandal that involved the NBA. That's not me finding evidence. That's just fact.

Oh I see, sorry I missed that. Well I can see your point. I am surely not saying that all cases of an issue are based on pre-conceived desires and finding evidence. All I am describing is the power of confirmation bias. In tomorrow night's game, the first time there is a blown call hurting the Celtics, anyone believing the league is crooked is going to say, "See? I told you!" - I may be one of them. I think you and are actually saying the same thing.

My point was my issue with the NFL and MLB were really confirmation bias. I spent my time seeing what my mind wanted me to see: some reason for my team getting "screwed."

With the NBA however, I have crossed from suspecting I am seeing evidence for something my mind wants to believe and instead, I am seeing the evidence and thus have this belief. Just as you say.

Confirmation bias is also why Miami fans will point out the bad calls they get against them as readily as we Celtics fans for our team. It is a real phenomenon and not a hard one to see at work.

[tgreanier]

I would loooovvvveeee to start watching a Celts/Heat playoff game and not see evidence of corrupt officiating such as horrid techs and missed calls in critical spots in OT. DIdn't happen. That wasn't me finding or seeking out evidence of what I believe. That's more like I know what I saw. Would love for the refs to prove me wrong. That's up to them. So far. No dice

Agreed. This is the problem. If you or I take a step back and try to find some "non-conspiracy" reason for what is going on, we seem unable to. This means (I will speak only for myself now) I am either horribly deluded...or there is something rotten in the NBA.

And I would dearly love to discover I am deluded. Like you, it ain't happening so far.

[mqtcelticsfan]

I don't buy that people find evidence to confirm their beliefs. People have beliefs because there is evidence.

That's just painfully incorrect. People do tend to ignore evidence that opposes their presuppositions.

For example, when people discuss a possible conspiracy in the NBA, they ignore the evidence that the only person to ever claim that there was a conspiracy is a guy who was committing fraud. If David Stern was truly controlling the NBA, its referees and its outcomes, don't you think there would be a bunch of people involved speaking out about it?

This lack of evidence is ignored in favor of supposed evidence based on how one interprets bad calls. They use the results to fit to the narrative.

In this specific case, if Boston were to win the next two games and the calls seemed to favor Boston, it would be said that Stern wants to extend each series for TV ratings. If the calls seem to favor Miami, then Stern is guaranteeing that Miami goes to the Finals, because it's good for TV ratings. No matter what happens, someone will say that the NBA is rigged. This is confirmation bias at its finest.

[tgreanier]

I don't buy that people find evidence to confirm their beliefs. People have beliefs because there is evidence.

That's just painfully incorrect. People do tend to ignore evidence that opposes their presuppositions.

For example, when people discuss a possible conspiracy in the NBA, they ignore the evidence that the only person to ever claim that there was a conspiracy is a guy who was committing fraud. If David Stern was truly controlling the NBA, its referees and its outcomes, don't you think there would be a bunch of people involved speaking out about it?

This lack of evidence is ignored in favor of supposed evidence based on how one interprets bad calls. They use the results to fit to the narrative.

In this specific case, if Boston were to win the next two games and the calls seemed to favor Boston, it would be said that Stern wants to extend each series for TV ratings. If the calls seem to favor Miami, then Stern is guaranteeing that Miami goes to the Finals, because it's good for TV ratings. No matter what happens, someone will say that the NBA is rigged. This is confirmation bias at its finest.

I also agree with your point - it is easy to decide "there is a conspiracy" and then whatever the scenario, use that as proof.

However, I should be clear. I have NO idea what the reason for the refs bias is. Obviously there are different possibilities, but I do not know them. As I said, it makes no sense to me that a league that can control games would limit the length of a series when there is more money to be made in a longer series. This does not mean there is not a reason, just that I don't see one.

I do not, however, expect a certain outcome Friday. I can see a scenario where Boston gets help, I can see a scenario where Miami gets help, I can even see a scenario where the game is called fair. So unlike some, this is not a case of "if Miami wins, it is because of the refs. If Boston wins it is because they are so good they overcame the refs." It is simply a matter of seeing what I see, with no preconceived notion.

That is the difference for me here: I am not looking for the refs bias, I am watching the game. I did that in game two and the bias was so obvious, so clear...it was sad.

[EDWARDO]

What we don't need on this board is some smarty-pants nerd telling us the truth when the lies we tell ourselves feel so much better.  

The lottery is fixed!!
Stern hates the Celts!!!
Obama is a Kenyan Muslim!!!
The Fed is run by a cabal of Goldman partners!!!

[Eja117]

I don't buy that people find evidence to confirm their beliefs. People have beliefs because there is evidence.

That's just painfully incorrect. People do tend to ignore evidence that opposes their presuppositions.

For example, when people discuss a possible conspiracy in the NBA, they ignore the evidence that the only person to ever claim that there was a conspiracy is a guy who was committing fraud. If David Stern was truly controlling the NBA, its referees and its outcomes, don't you think there would be a bunch of people involved speaking out about it?

This lack of evidence is ignored in favor of supposed evidence based on how one interprets bad calls. They use the results to fit to the narrative.

In this specific case, if Boston were to win the next two games and the calls seemed to favor Boston, it would be said that Stern wants to extend each series for TV ratings. If the calls seem to favor Miami, then Stern is guaranteeing that Miami goes to the Finals, because it's good for TV ratings. No matter what happens, someone will say that the NBA is rigged. This is confirmation bias at its finest.

I totally totally disagree. The NBA is the only league in America with this problem and it's for a reason.  This league is the only one with a commissioner that says he knows where the bodies are buried cause he did it himself.  This is the only league I can think of that has a ref that got investigated by the FBI in the first place. Obviously they want him to talk, so he did, and nothing happened to him. Cause maybe he told them the truth?

If people just want to believe their team is being screwed why don't we believe this about all our teams in all our leagues?  And no. I don't think people would speak out about it. I definitely definitely don't think you will see Joey Crawford coming out (unless he gets investigated and charged by the FBI like another ref...and when it happens Stern will be sure to minimize him) and saying "I'm a horrid ref. I'm crooked and I have been for a long time. I take orders for Stern".  I don't think you'll be seeing that. That's what a conspiracy is. People don't self-incriminate or give up good gigs.  They're not going to be admitting to writers off the record that they're breaking all the rules. They aren't going to be doing that. So no. I don't think they'd talk about it actually.

[mqtcelticsfan]

However, I should be clear. I have NO idea what the reason for the refs bias is. Obviously there are different possibilities, but I do not know them. As I said, it makes no sense to me that a league that can control games would limit the length of a series when there is more money to be made in a longer series. This does not mean there is not a reason, just that I don't see one.

I think it's readily obvious what is happening in the league. Certain players like LeBron and Wade attack the basket a lot. They get fouled a lot. Because they get fouled so much and are so aggressive, the refs likely go into each play expecting that they will get fouled. In many cases, they do actually get fouled. So even when they don't get fouled or it's a borderline call, the refs likely are constantly anticipating a foul.

Further, plays where a guy draws contact are likely to earn trips to the line. When so many plays draw contact, there are bound to be some bad calls.

[Eja117]

Either you're telling me these are the best refs in the world that consistently make terrible terrible calls and I should just believe that these best refs are just making terrible mistakes consistently or you're telling me they're doing it on purpose. Since I've seen many many games called very well by many people at many different levels and have done it myself I am well aware that it really isn't hard to call a good game. It isn't an unusual event. It isn't an impossibility. It isn't some bizarre thing to just have good refs and good reffing. It really isn't.  It isn't a miraculous thing.  Good reffing is actually quite common as soon as you get out of the NBA.  Orrrrrrr....these best refs in the world are reffing very very badly for some other reason.

I don't believe they're incompetent and since Stern acts like he has something to hide, that kinda makes me think he does.

This isn't bias. This is just acknowledging that the NBA has reffing problems that other leagues don't have. That's fact.

[mqtcelticsfan]

I totally totally disagree. The NBA is the only league in America with this problem and it's for a reason.  This league is the only one with a commissioner that says he knows where the bodies are buried cause he did it himself.  This is the only league I can think of that has a ref that got investigated by the FBI in the first place. Obviously they want him to talk, so he did, and nothing happened to him. Cause maybe he told them the truth?

If people just want to believe their team is being screwed why don't we believe this about all our teams in all our leagues?  And no. I don't think people would speak out about it. I definitely definitely don't think you will see Joey Crawford coming out (unless he gets investigated and charged by the FBI like another ref...and when it happens Stern will be sure to minimize him) and saying "I'm a horrid ref. I'm crooked and I have been for a long time. I take orders for Stern".  I don't think you'll be seeing that. That's what a conspiracy is. People don't self-incriminate or give up good gigs.  They're not going to be admitting to writers off the record that they're breaking all the rules. They aren't going to be doing that. So no. I don't think they'd talk about it actually.

Every sport has a case of someone gambling or shaving points at some point. Just because the NBA had a ref do it, it doesn't mean that the league is more corrupt.

Again, it's very hard to have absolutely everyone keep a secret all the time. The idea that Stern is just so badass that he can keep everyone quiet is absurd. If someone came forward with physical evidence that the NBA rigs the lottery or the results of playoff games, what would Stern be able to do to them? Is every owner and official in the NBA guilty of some sort of major crime that Stern and the NBA know about and are hiding from the world? I highly doubt that.

[Eja117]

However, I should be clear. I have NO idea what the reason for the refs bias is. Obviously there are different possibilities, but I do not know them. As I said, it makes no sense to me that a league that can control games would limit the length of a series when there is more money to be made in a longer series. This does not mean there is not a reason, just that I don't see one.

I think it's readily obvious what is happening in the league. Certain players like LeBron and Wade attack the basket a lot. They get fouled a lot. Because they get fouled so much and are so aggressive, the refs likely go into each play expecting that they will get fouled. In many cases, they do actually get fouled. So even when they don't get fouled or it's a borderline call, the refs likely are constantly anticipating a foul.

Further, plays where a guy draws contact are likely to earn trips to the line. When so many plays draw contact, there are bound to be some bad calls.

It's just not that hard to call a good game. It's not. Especially when you do it for a living. It's very very common to go to any local high school game and between two refs (and the NBA gets three) there might be 5 bad calls and 3 questionable ones. The NBA has bad calls throughout the game every game.  And these are supposed to be the best refs alive.

[mqtcelticsfan]

Either you're telling me these are the best refs in the world that consistently make terrible terrible calls and I should just believe that these best refs are just making terrible mistakes consistently or you're telling me they're doing it on purpose. Since I've seen many many games called very well by many people at many different levels and have done it myself I am well aware that it really isn't hard to call a good game. It isn't an unusual event. It isn't an impossibility. It isn't some bizarre thing to just have good refs and good reffing. It really isn't.  It isn't a miraculous thing.  Good reffing is actually quite common as soon as you get out of the NBA.  Orrrrrrr....these best refs in the world are reffing very very badly for some other reason.

I've seen Ray Allen hit 9 3s in a game. In fact, I've seen Ray Allen have numerous games where he hits shot after shot after shot. Are you to tell me that when Ray Allen has a game where he misses wide open 3s that he is simply doing poorly? I'd choose to believe that the NBA is rigging the game and Ray is being paid off to perform so poorly.

[Eja117]

I totally totally disagree. The NBA is the only league in America with this problem and it's for a reason.  This league is the only one with a commissioner that says he knows where the bodies are buried cause he did it himself.  This is the only league I can think of that has a ref that got investigated by the FBI in the first place. Obviously they want him to talk, so he did, and nothing happened to him. Cause maybe he told them the truth?

If people just want to believe their team is being screwed why don't we believe this about all our teams in all our leagues?  And no. I don't think people would speak out about it. I definitely definitely don't think you will see Joey Crawford coming out (unless he gets investigated and charged by the FBI like another ref...and when it happens Stern will be sure to minimize him) and saying "I'm a horrid ref. I'm crooked and I have been for a long time. I take orders for Stern".  I don't think you'll be seeing that. That's what a conspiracy is. People don't self-incriminate or give up good gigs.  They're not going to be admitting to writers off the record that they're breaking all the rules. They aren't going to be doing that. So no. I don't think they'd talk about it actually.

Every sport has a case of someone gambling or shaving points at some point. Just because the NBA had a ref do it, it doesn't mean that the league is more corrupt.

Again, it's very hard to have absolutely everyone keep a secret all the time. The idea that Stern is just so badass that he can keep everyone quiet is absurd. If someone came forward with physical evidence that the NBA rigs the lottery or the results of playoff games, what would Stern be able to do to them? Is every owner and official in the NBA guilty of some sort of major crime that Stern and the NBA know about and are hiding from the world? I highly doubt that.

It's interesting you say that because the majority of NBA owners (or was it GMs) expressed they thought the lottery was rigged. What other sport does that happen in?

And this is very very easy to fix. You become transparent. Stern knows this. He doesn't care.

[mqtcelticsfan]

However, I should be clear. I have NO idea what the reason for the refs bias is. Obviously there are different possibilities, but I do not know them. As I said, it makes no sense to me that a league that can control games would limit the length of a series when there is more money to be made in a longer series. This does not mean there is not a reason, just that I don't see one.

I think it's readily obvious what is happening in the league. Certain players like LeBron and Wade attack the basket a lot. They get fouled a lot. Because they get fouled so much and are so aggressive, the refs likely go into each play expecting that they will get fouled. In many cases, they do actually get fouled. So even when they don't get fouled or it's a borderline call, the refs likely are constantly anticipating a foul.

Further, plays where a guy draws contact are likely to earn trips to the line. When so many plays draw contact, there are bound to be some bad calls.

It's just not that hard to call a good game. It's not. Especially when you do it for a living. It's very very common to go to any local high school game and between two refs (and the NBA gets three) there might be 5 bad calls and 3 questionable ones. The NBA has bad calls throughout the game every game.  And these are supposed to be the best refs alive.

Again, this stinks of confirmation bias. How many truly terrible calls are there in these games? At best, most of these calls are slightly questionable and could go either way. There were possibly 2 or 3 genuinely bad calls in game 2. That is compared with the 100 or so other calls in the game. By choosing to look at those few bad calls, you're ignoring all of the calls that go exactly as they should.

[tgreanier]

Either you're telling me these are the best refs in the world that consistently make terrible terrible calls and I should just believe that these best refs are just making terrible mistakes consistently or you're telling me they're doing it on purpose. Since I've seen many many games called very well by many people at many different levels and have done it myself I am well aware that it really isn't hard to call a good game. It isn't an unusual event. It isn't an impossibility. It isn't some bizarre thing to just have good refs and good reffing. It really isn't.  It isn't a miraculous thing.  Good reffing is actually quite common as soon as you get out of the NBA.  Orrrrrrr....these best refs in the world are reffing very very badly for some other reason.

I've seen Ray Allen hit 9 3s in a game. In fact, I've seen Ray Allen have numerous games where he hits shot after shot after shot. Are you to tell me that when Ray Allen has a game where he misses wide open 3s that he is simply doing poorly? I'd choose to believe that the NBA is rigging the game and Ray is being paid off to perform so poorly.

lol, I dearly hope this is a well-placed joke.