Confirmation Bias

[tgreanier]

There have been some (mostly) intelligent points made on both sides of the argument that the officials are helping Miami. I can understand both sides of that argument.

Confirmation bias is a difficult obstacle for a human, much less an emotionally-invested one, to overcome. If you believe something is true, you will find evidence for it. If you believe something is false, you will find evidence against it. The human mind loves order and reason and will do amazing things to find it.

I remember a few years ago watching my Kansas City Chiefs playing the Dallas Cowboys and, surprisingly, the Chiefs were winning. However, on a late drive in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs got whistled with consecutive offsides, neither of which made any sense. Replay confirmed the calls were really bad. Dallas went on to win and I was very unhappy (mainly because I had crossed the threshold of "can they win" to "they are going to win"). My knee-jerk reaction was to rant for an hour that the NFL was crooked and the Chiefs got jobbed intentionally. During that hour, there was no convincing me. I saw what I wanted to see.

After some time, I realized my conclusion that "the NFL was corrupt" or even that "the officials are corrupt" was a stupid conclusion with such paltry evidence. Yeah, the calls were bad, but jumping from that to the entire league has some dark agenda...that was just stupid. I moved on.

I remember two years ago watching a Red Sox game and down a run late, a stolen base ensued and the runner was CLEARLY safe, but called out. This obviously took a man off second. With 2 outs, the next pitch (of course) was a double, which would have tied the game up. Instead, it just put a man on second and the third out came next and ended the game.

I was livid. Terrible call. The umpire clearly hated the Red Sox and did it on purpose. Again, after some time I realized how stupid that reaction is.

I think all fans do things like this to various degrees. It hurts when you can see apparant success taken away from you by something stupid and chaotic. Again, the mind wants order, not chaos, so when something like the NFL and MLB calls go awry, the mind tries to explain it.

This brings me to the NBA. For a few years now I have had some lingering questions about the officials. They are either generally incompetent or generally corrupt - that has been my stance. I actually stopped watching for the bulk of last season because I knew my mind was going to lead me to that conclusion again. What I had not yet concluded was if I was again off my rocker.

So this season came around and I jumped back in. Throughout the season I saw bad calls, missed calls, suspect calls...but I was always able to play that "think it through man" card and find a conclusion other than conspiracy.

These last two games against the Heat have ruined me though. Given my experience with understanding a fan's reaction and confirmation bias, I have tried to accept the calls as painful-but-not-with-agenda. After game one, I was teetering a bit. The refs sure *seemed* bias, but again, the mind searches for order and reason. I decided to let it go. Surely game 2 would not be the same (different refs, different night). I was right, it was not the same, it was worse.

This has led me through what I believe (though I could be wrong) is sound reasoning to conclude something I have not wanted to be true for a long time: the NBA has a problem, a big one. Is it conspiracy? I don't know - that's a strong claim and it is very easily dismissed because there seems to not be any rhyme or reason to it (why would Lebron not have a ring yet? Why would NY-MIA have been such a short series? Why would the Lakers be out?). Is it ineptitude? That is more likely, but difficult to prove. How do you prove a ref *could* have made a call he didn't or should not have made a call he did? We are not on the floor.

What I am saying is I do not know what is wrong here, I only see the evidence something is. If the ceiling is dripping water but I see no hole, that doesn't mean it isn't a problem. In the same way, if the Heat are clearly getting calls the Celtics are not (even when you take into account the home-team advantage there) and you are seeing obvious fouls ignored that help Miami when they need it, it is very hard to not go looking for the leak.

Ainge sees it. Rivers sees it. Many in the media see it. People who are not even Celtics fans see it. Hell, I work with a Miami fan who loves nothing more than the Celtics are losing and SHE sees it. This is a very real problem, whether it is intentionally via league mandate or just the failure of the refs to be impartial.

I do not blame losses on the refs because I have seen the Celtics win games even when they are getting jobbed. I have also seen them lose when the other team is. Blaming them for the losses is not the point. I blame them for ruining the game I grew up loving. I blame the front office for turning the league into one driven by individuals, not teams. Somehow along the way the NBA has lost its way and the league is a joke compared to what it used to be.

I want nothing more than to be shown my stupidity here because I do not like believing the NBA is corrupt. It just has the stench of something childish to believe...but I just cannot ignore the evidence. The ceiling has a big [dang]ed leak.

[guava_wrench]

What these emotional reactions lack is a systematic examination of all plays. We can't do this as individuals because bad calls against our opponents don't register to us like bad calls against us.

This is why we have fans of both teams complaining about the refs after games. Because both notice was is meaningful to them. Even on individual plays this happens in interpretations of plays. i was livid last night when I saw Wade get a foul call where he led with his leg. After 2 replays, I finally noticed that KG intentionally fouled Wade with a straight arm before the leg made contact. Even though Wade was about to fly straight into KG, KG's foul happened first. My initial perception was what I wanted to happen, but then the replay proved me wrong.

Referees will always blow calls at all levels of the game unless we introduce extremely invasive replay and have constant play stoppage to search for missed calls. These human limitations will always leave room for imaginations to run wild.

Add to that the number of people who have a hard time accepting when things don't go their way and who are comfortable coming up with incredible speculations. We see this a lot in politics with the Illuminati types and other more mainstream speculations.

[cbccagle]

I crossed your threshold a number of years ago. 

I own a small business and my customers all know I'm a Celtic, and I've been able to convert a fair number of them to our cause.  They see me passionate about Celtic pride, the team play, the legacy, and I guess they want to part of it.  Today, the conversation was all about how badly the NBA is being run, and more than a few started remembering the Pacers-Heat series and the blown calls there. 

Needless to say, they're looking for any instance they can point to in the San Antonio-Oklahoma City game tonight to justify their fears or calm their nerves.

We are NOT optimistic about Friday.

Whether there is general incompetence or outright fraud we may never know for sure.  But you're exactly right: SOMETHING is wrong, it's been wrong for a long time, and is not likely to get better anytime soon.

Kudos and TP for a very well written, thoughtful post.  I sincerely hope it spawns more intelligent conversation.

And I also sincerely hope we're wrong...

[Lucky17]

Referees in all sports make bad calls from time to time, even ones that tip the scales in an otherwise close game. This is regrettable.

What's more regrettable, even beyond the possibility of fixing these mistakes in-game, is that there is no accountability afterwards in the NBA.

In recent memory, I've seen both the MLB and the NFL discipline umpires for having made bad calls that had serious impact on the outcomes of games. I have no such recollection of this in the NBA. Quite the contrary, Commissioner Stern levies fines against those who criticize referees who make mistakes.

This is the main problem with the NBA. It's a willfully ignorant refutation of the very concept that referees often get calls wrong.

[KJR]

You hit the nail on the head: it's confirmation bias, not conspiracy or intentional manipulation.

The League creates a narrative.  It's transmitted through memos and pre-game meetings to the officials, and the officials play out the script they've been given.  Some years it benefits the C's; this year it's working against them.

The refs see what they want to see ... or rather what they are programmed to see.  The calls seem "right" if they confirm the script.

The narrative this year is that the Heat are the better team and should win, and the Celtics are an old, gritty team that will muck up games in order to prevail.  That's why the C's have been hit with a barrage of pre-emptive techs.

The narrative is also that Lebron and Wade are great offensive finishers on drives to the rim (which they are).  So that must mean (on most occasions) they are going to score.  If they don't score, the refs are going to look for a foul.  Or, if there is any contact, it must be the defender who has committed a foul.  No chance of calling 3 or 4 steps on a drive, no matter how blatant.  No chance of calling the arm bar with the off arm.  No chance of calling the player for jumping into another player backwards.  No chance of calling a player for kicks to the groin and mid-section.  Does anyone honestly think Pierce or KG could go in the lane with their feet out and kick another player and get away with it?  Yes, KG fouled him.  It probably should've been an and-one for Wade (which it was), and then a one-shot tech for the C's.  But that would've required more thought than these refs can manage.

On defense, the narrative is that Wade and Lebron are great weakside defenders of the rim (which they are).  So that means, any defensive play is a great play.  It doesn't matter if Lebron slams the backboard and rattles out Rondo's shot.  It doesn't matter if Wade hits Rondo in the face.  It doesn't matter if Lebron blocks Rondo's shot, hits him in the head, and flattens him.  The NBA narrative is that these are plays that Lebron makes, so that's the way they are called.

On techs, the narrative is that the C's are the physical, gritty team, and the League clearly didn't want these national TV games mucked up.  So by called a barrage of techs on the C's they clearly sent the message: don't even think of playing physical or you'll be out of the game.  Of course, Miami has been by far the more physical team in the series.  Battier boxed Rondo out out of bounds, but Rondo got the tech.  Anthony hit KG in the face and arms, but KG shrugged off the hit, and got the tech.  Ray Allen winced, and got a tech.  KG tipped a made basket, and got a tech.  Battier was throwing made baskets to the sidelines for a 5-10 second delay, and didn't even receive a warning.  If you stopped and compared these things, it would make you laugh or cry.  There was no pretense of being even-handed.

The C's can overcome, but they are going to have to win decisively.  In a close game, the calls are going to follow the pre-conceptions of the officials and the mandates of the League that the game be called a certain way.

It's not a conspiracy.  It's a way of framing the contest in advance, and refs are expected to follow this framing, or narrative.

In previous decades, other teams played the foil to the Celtics.  Now these great, soulful, grizzled warriors have to play the foil for the Lebrons, Durants and Griffins, because that's how the League sees them.

Anyway, win or lose, KG is worth the whole [dang] bunch of them ... and everybody knows it!

[bballinlilbetty]

I saw this the other day, and didn't think anything of it, but saved it just because I wanted to flaunt it when the series swung to 1-1.

But this is the headlines on ESPN yesterday before the game. Notice what is circled in Red. Could just be a typo, but its all starting to come together!

Look at the picture below (url listed if it doesnt work)

http://boston.3432.voxcdn.com/files/2012/05/AuJvB-NCQAAu5bq.jpg-large.jpg

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

You hit the nail on the head: it's confirmation bias, not conspiracy or intentional manipulation.

The League creates a narrative.  It's transmitted through memos and pre-game meetings to the officials, and the officials play out the script they've been given.  Some years it benefits the C's; this year it's working against them.

The refs see what they want to see ... or rather what they are programmed to see.  The calls seem "right" if they confirm the script.





The narrative this year is that the Heat are the better team and should win, and the Celtics are an old, gritty team that will muck up games in order to prevail.  That's why the C's have been hit with a barrage of pre-emptive techs.

The narrative is also that Lebron and Wade are great offensive finishers on drives to the rim (which they are).  So that must mean (on most occasions) they are going to score.  If they don't score, the refs are going to look for a foul.  Or, if there is any contact, it must be the defender who has committed a foul.  No chance of calling 3 or 4 steps on a drive, no matter how blatant.  No chance of calling the arm bar with the off arm.  No chance of calling the player for jumping into another player backwards.  No chance of calling a player for kicks to the groin and mid-section.  Does anyone honestly think Pierce or KG could go in the lane with their feet out and kick another player and get away with it?  Yes, KG fouled him.  It probably should've been an and-one for Wade (which it was), and then a one-shot tech for the C's.  But that would've required more thought than these refs can manage.

On defense, the narrative is that Wade and Lebron are great weakside defenders of the rim (which they are).  So that means, any defensive play is a great play.  It doesn't matter if Lebron slams the backboard and rattles out Rondo's shot.  It doesn't matter if Wade hits Rondo in the face.  It doesn't matter if Lebron blocks Rondo's shot, hits him in the head, and flattens him.  The NBA narrative is that these are plays that Lebron makes, so that's the way they are called.

On techs, the narrative is that the C's are the physical, gritty team, and the League clearly didn't want these national TV games mucked up.  So by called a barrage of techs on the C's they clearly sent the message: don't even think of playing physical or you'll be out of the game.  Of course, Miami has been by far the more physical team in the series.  Battier boxed Rondo out out of bounds, but Rondo got the tech.  Anthony hit KG in the face and arms, but KG shrugged off the hit, and got the tech.  Ray Allen winced, and got a tech.  KG tipped a made basket, and got a tech.  Battier was throwing made baskets to the sidelines for a 5-10 second delay, and didn't even receive a warning.  If you stopped and compared these things, it would make you laugh or cry.  There was no pretense of being even-handed.

The C's can overcome, but they are going to have to win decisively.  In a close game, the calls are going to follow the pre-conceptions of the officials and the mandates of the League that the game be called a certain way.

It's not a conspiracy.  It's a way of framing the contest in advance, and refs are expected to follow this framing, or narrative.

In previous decades, other teams played the foil to the Celtics.  Now these great, soulful, grizzled warriors have to play the foil for the Lebrons, Durants and Griffins, because that's how the League sees them.

Anyway, win or lose, KG is worth the whole [dang] bunch of them ... and everybody knows it!

see lakers-kings 2002.  that was RIGGED intentionally. Tim Donaghy admitted this!

[Quetzalcoatl]

see lakers-kings 2002.  that was RIGGED intentionally. Tim Donaghy admitted this!

TD said it was rigged so that there would be a game 7 because the two unnamed refs working those games were "company men" and it was in the league's interest to make it go as long as possible.  That sort of clashes with the Knicks Heat series from a few weeks ago only going 5 games, which I watched a bunch of and seemed pretty [dang] biased in favor of Miami the whole time.  New York was the eight seed for a reason though....

[Celtics18]

Referees in all sports make bad calls from time to time, even ones that tip the scales in an otherwise close game. This is regrettable.

What's more regrettable, even beyond the possibility of fixing these mistakes in-game, is that there is no accountability afterwards in the NBA.

In recent memory, I've seen both the MLB and the NFL discipline umpires for having made bad calls that had serious impact on the outcomes of games. I have no such recollection of this in the NBA. Quite the contrary, Commissioner Stern levies fines against those who criticize referees who make mistakes.

This is the main problem with the NBA. It's a willfully ignorant refutation of the very concept that referees often get calls wrong.

This I agree with.  The league needs to make referees accountable for bad calls.  They can fine them if they want, or I think it would be more effective to make very public announcements that the league has reviewed a questionable call and deemed it to be erroneous.  Yes, embarrass the refs, and then suspend refs who cross a designated number of bad calls.  I think this would help the refs to do a better job calling the game correctly.  

I realize that basketball is probably one of the toughest sports to call, but the sentiment is growing too large among the public that something is amiss, and it needs to be addressed.

[Greenback]

The Miami TWEET

The tweet of the referee's whistle in their favor.

[Celtics4ever]

The arrogance of the league and Stern knows no bounds.

[Eja117]

Not buying the original post. Stern had every reason on Earth to sue Tim Donaghy. He had quite a bit of money to find quite a bit of evidence. Didn't do it. Nobody sued him. The FBI didn't charge him with any kind of perjury. Most refs kept pretty quiet.  This isn't "evidence". These are facts.  Gotta suspect Stern didn't want himself or any of his refs to take the stand.

Yup. The sky is blue and I think I found the evidence.  Stern "believes" everything is on the up and up and won't show you the evidence. It's the old...who ya gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes?

[tgreanier]

Not buying the original post. Stern had every reason on Earth to sue Tim Donaghy. He had quite a bit of money to find quite a bit of evidence. Didn't do it. Nobody sued him. The FBI didn't charge him with any kind of perjury. Most refs kept pretty quiet.  This isn't "evidence". These are facts.  Gotta suspect Stern didn't want himself or any of his refs to take the stand.

Yup. The sky is blue and I think I found the evidence.  Stern "believes" everything is on the up and up and won't show you the evidence. It's the old...who ya gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes?

I am confused by your comment that you don't agree with my original post. Your comments seem to agree. What am I missing?

[Eja117]

Not buying the original post. Stern had every reason on Earth to sue Tim Donaghy. He had quite a bit of money to find quite a bit of evidence. Didn't do it. Nobody sued him. The FBI didn't charge him with any kind of perjury. Most refs kept pretty quiet.  This isn't "evidence". These are facts.  Gotta suspect Stern didn't want himself or any of his refs to take the stand.

Yup. The sky is blue and I think I found the evidence.  Stern "believes" everything is on the up and up and won't show you the evidence. It's the old...who ya gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes?

I am confused by your comment that you don't agree with my original post. Your comments seem to agree. What am I missing?

I don't buy that people find evidence to confirm their beliefs. People have beliefs because there is evidence.

You don't hear fans here complaining about crooked refs in MLB, the NFL, or NHL. Only the NBA. There are reasons for it.

Also the NBA is the only one that I know of at least recently with a major referee scandal that involved the NBA. That's not me finding evidence. That's just fact.

[mqtcelticsfan]

Wait, is this saying that there is no confirmation bias at play? This is like the Sixth Sense of threads.