"Miami does not want to play Boston" -- Bucher

[BballTim]

  I'd hazard a guess that you put a lot of stock in the regular season back when the Celts were stinking it up. In any case, I don't see a huge improvement. James is probably playing a little better this year, Bosh is about the same and Wade isn't doing as well. I still don't see their bench players having a huge role on a team with Wade and James, and I don't think that their bench has been earth-shatteringly good either.

Agree with everything here. Well done.

LeBron and Wade have very strong back muscles, due to the heavy carrying they have to do every single night. The team is not well balanced.

Its built around "we have two superstars in their prime, they can carry everyone else, every single night" and when they have an off night, they lose.

KG will destroy Bosh as he has done all throughout his career and especially this season.

Bradley will limit Wade.

Pierce CAN score enough to negate LeBron but he probably wont every single game.

The Key to Miami has always been Bosh.

When Bosh plays well they win, when he doesent they lose because the load is too much to carry for LeBron and Wade.

The Heat are incredibly well balanced team, they just aren't the best coached team in the world.  Seriously, Chris Bosh is their third best player.  A 22/10 player for multiple seasons that is still in his prime is their THIRD best player.  Miller and Chalmers are excellent shooters and floor spacers.  Haslem, Battier, and Anthony do the dirty work.  They defend well at all positions. 

If the Heat don't win the title (barring injury) it will be entirely on Spoelstra and his lack of creativity and overall coaching ability, especially on the offensive end of the floor.

  The Heat are talented at the top, but I don't think I'd call a team where 2 players score half or more of the points incredibly balanced, especially when their best players don't complement each other well on offense. You can only blame the coach so much.

[colincb]

Chris Bosh matches up very well with Kevin Garnett.  Last year in the playoffs they were about even and both were well below their season averages in the series.  KG was nominally better in game 5 and was significantly better in game 3 (the only game Boston won), the other 3 games Bosh out played Garnett.  Now I realize, Bosh and KG aren't always matched up head to head, but they generally played each other and they will do so again this year (if that series happens), while Anthony will take Bass (a much better match-up for the Heat - though I would like to think Bass will still be able to find range).

The only spot the Celtics have any sort of real advantage is Rondo against Chalmers and even Chalmers has had pretty solid success against Rondo (comparatively speaking anyway) because Chalmers is one of the few players in the league fast enough to stay with Rondo.  The last two years the rotations of Arroyo/Chalmers and Bibby/Chalmers has basically held Rondo in check in the playoffs (I know Rondo was injured last year so that is a bit skewed).  

The reality is Miami is a horrid match-up for Boston.  

I think Bosh and Garnett can be a neutral matchup if (1) Garnett and Bosh are matched up at center against one another with enough floor spacing to open up the court for each of them (2) matched up at PF alongside one another with limited offensive threats at center ... but not if (3) Garnett is playing center in a spread out offense and Bosh is playing PF in a packed in offense which reduces his offensive opportunities which in turn allows KG to snuff out Bosh's offense.

At the moment, Miami are using Bosh alongside Haslem and are firmly in that #3 category so I'd expect Garnett to have a pretty big advantage over Bosh in a playoff series.

Not because Bosh isn't capable of of contributing more but because Spoelstra isn't using him right (in this specific matchup ... and in general).

I don't think Bosh will struggle guarding KG no matter the offense the Celtics play at this particular point in their careers, which was really borne out in the regular season, where they both essentially neutralized each other (though KG was the better overall player in 2 of the 3 games - Bosh out-rebounded KG by a large margin in the 3 games).  Those two guys are a wash.  KG will be better one game, Bosh better the next, which has played out the last 12 games they have played each other (heck even the last 4 games of Bosh's Toronto time, it has been true).  They just cancel each other out (though Bosh is consistently the better rebounder at this point even in his poor offensive performances (KG has only won the rebounding edge 3 times in the last 12 games)).

I think you need to look at more than just rebounding when you compare KG to Bosh.  Since Bosh has been in MIA, KG has averaged a 19.6 efficiency rating per 36 minutes vs Bosh's 16.2 in 12 head-to-head meetings.  The number of games where one has topped the other has been an even 6-6, but when KG wins, it is by a bigger margin.  Efficiency ratings are biased toward offense and this year KG is at 94 points vs Bosh's 100 points allowed per 100 possession, both strong scores.

The difference in efficiency ratings gets much worse the further back you go as one would expect given that KG was a superstar when CB came into the league.  Over 27 career head-to-heads KG stands at a 22.0 efficiency rating per 36 minutes vs. 17.0 for Bosh and KG has won 17-10 on a per game basis (and 11-4 before MIA).  Defensively,  KG has a career defensive rating of 99 points allowed per 100 possession, which is elite, vs. Bosh's 106, which is below average.

It's certainly closer today than before between the two, but it's still an edge for the Cs.

[Moranis]

  I'd hazard a guess that you put a lot of stock in the regular season back when the Celts were stinking it up. In any case, I don't see a huge improvement. James is probably playing a little better this year, Bosh is about the same and Wade isn't doing as well. I still don't see their bench players having a huge role on a team with Wade and James, and I don't think that their bench has been earth-shatteringly good either.

Agree with everything here. Well done.

LeBron and Wade have very strong back muscles, due to the heavy carrying they have to do every single night. The team is not well balanced.

Its built around "we have two superstars in their prime, they can carry everyone else, every single night" and when they have an off night, they lose.

KG will destroy Bosh as he has done all throughout his career and especially this season.

Bradley will limit Wade.

Pierce CAN score enough to negate LeBron but he probably wont every single game.

The Key to Miami has always been Bosh.

When Bosh plays well they win, when he doesent they lose because the load is too much to carry for LeBron and Wade.

The Heat are incredibly well balanced team, they just aren't the best coached team in the world.  Seriously, Chris Bosh is their third best player.  A 22/10 player for multiple seasons that is still in his prime is their THIRD best player.  Miller and Chalmers are excellent shooters and floor spacers.  Haslem, Battier, and Anthony do the dirty work.  They defend well at all positions. 

If the Heat don't win the title (barring injury) it will be entirely on Spoelstra and his lack of creativity and overall coaching ability, especially on the offensive end of the floor.

  The Heat are talented at the top, but I don't think I'd call a team where 2 players score half or more of the points incredibly balanced, especially when their best players don't complement each other well on offense. You can only blame the coach so much.

Bird and McHale in 85/86 scored just under half of the Celtics points in the playoffs and I don't think there were that many complaints that that team wasn't well balanced.

The reality is, most championship teams are dominated by two elite offensive players and fill in the rest with role players that balance out the stars, especially in the last 30 years where the Bulls were dominated by Jordan and Pippen, the Rockets had Dream and Clyde, the Lakers with Shaq and Kobe, the Mavs last year were essentially the Dirk and Terry show, etc.  Even the Spurs have been essentially a three man show with Duncan, Manu, and Parker (which is much closer to the Heat with Bosh).  Elite players win titles.  Elite players also dominate the scoring of the team they are on.  It is just the way the NBA works except in very rare circumstances (like the Pistons). 

The Heat have a well balanced team.  Elite players, dirty work guys, high percentage shooters, great team and individual defense.  Sure they aren't a perfect team and could always upgrade areas, but they are well balanced.

[tenn_smoothie]

this entire thread is just unbelievable.

we are not even out of the first round yet and neither is Philly for that matter. the Celts now face a near must-win game 6 at the Garden thursday nite because they did what the posters on this thread are doing - they relaxed and took a win for granted because of a 1st-half lead and lost due to hubris.

the Hawks are not dead yet and neither are the Bulls - Celts and their fans need to keep their mind on the next game only and let the other series play themselves out.

all eyes and attention on Game 6 thursday nite !!!

[Smitty77]

Soap07,

How in the world does that not make sense?

Smitty77

[More Banners]

  I'd hazard a guess that you put a lot of stock in the regular season back when the Celts were stinking it up. In any case, I don't see a huge improvement. James is probably playing a little better this year, Bosh is about the same and Wade isn't doing as well. I still don't see their bench players having a huge role on a team with Wade and James, and I don't think that their bench has been earth-shatteringly good either.

Agree with everything here. Well done.

LeBron and Wade have very strong back muscles, due to the heavy carrying they have to do every single night. The team is not well balanced.

Its built around "we have two superstars in their prime, they can carry everyone else, every single night" and when they have an off night, they lose.

KG will destroy Bosh as he has done all throughout his career and especially this season.

Bradley will limit Wade.

Pierce CAN score enough to negate LeBron but he probably wont every single game.

The Key to Miami has always been Bosh.

When Bosh plays well they win, when he doesent they lose because the load is too much to carry for LeBron and Wade.

The Heat are incredibly well balanced team, they just aren't the best coached team in the world.  Seriously, Chris Bosh is their third best player.  A 22/10 player for multiple seasons that is still in his prime is their THIRD best player.  Miller and Chalmers are excellent shooters and floor spacers.  Haslem, Battier, and Anthony do the dirty work.  They defend well at all positions. 

If the Heat don't win the title (barring injury) it will be entirely on Spoelstra and his lack of creativity and overall coaching ability, especially on the offensive end of the floor.

  The Heat are talented at the top, but I don't think I'd call a team where 2 players score half or more of the points incredibly balanced, especially when their best players don't complement each other well on offense. You can only blame the coach so much.

Bird and McHale in 85/86 scored just under half of the Celtics points in the playoffs and I don't think there were that many complaints that that team wasn't well balanced.

The reality is, most championship teams are dominated by two elite offensive players and fill in the rest with role players that balance out the stars, especially in the last 30 years where the Bulls were dominated by Jordan and Pippen, the Rockets had Dream and Clyde, the Lakers with Shaq and Kobe, the Mavs last year were essentially the Dirk and Terry show, etc.  Even the Spurs have been essentially a three man show with Duncan, Manu, and Parker (which is much closer to the Heat with Bosh).  Elite players win titles.  Elite players also dominate the scoring of the team they are on.  It is just the way the NBA works except in very rare circumstances (like the Pistons). 

The Heat have a well balanced team.  Elite players, dirty work guys, high percentage shooters, great team and individual defense.  Sure they aren't a perfect team and could always upgrade areas, but they are well balanced.

I have to agree with this.  It's not that they do the scoring.  They're out there to score, after all.  It's that their offense counts on getting those points the hard way.

If they ran our offenses the Celtic way with their players, it would be a complete layup and open jumper drill.  Seriously, it'd be like shootaround, all wide open and easy.

In other words, they would be unstoppable with a coach that could get them to play like a real team, and fortunately there aren't many of those, since Riley won't hire PJ or do it himself, and Doc and Pop are taken.  It doesn't leave many options.

Either of the Van Gundy's or Jerry Sloan?

NYK will need a coach next year, too.

I don't know why I'm so into the train wreck down there.  I find it so interesting how they could be so close to all-time great team, but are kind of all boneheaded in a way.  If the right coach can get that boneheadedness in check and the group they have working well...  So I think the coach is the ticket down there, or at least the first thing to try.

[lightspeed5]

we beat the heat 3 times in april. our bench beat their bench in the 3rd game. i feel good about going against them.

[BballTim]

  I'd hazard a guess that you put a lot of stock in the regular season back when the Celts were stinking it up. In any case, I don't see a huge improvement. James is probably playing a little better this year, Bosh is about the same and Wade isn't doing as well. I still don't see their bench players having a huge role on a team with Wade and James, and I don't think that their bench has been earth-shatteringly good either.

Agree with everything here. Well done.

LeBron and Wade have very strong back muscles, due to the heavy carrying they have to do every single night. The team is not well balanced.

Its built around "we have two superstars in their prime, they can carry everyone else, every single night" and when they have an off night, they lose.

KG will destroy Bosh as he has done all throughout his career and especially this season.

Bradley will limit Wade.

Pierce CAN score enough to negate LeBron but he probably wont every single game.

The Key to Miami has always been Bosh.

When Bosh plays well they win, when he doesent they lose because the load is too much to carry for LeBron and Wade.

The Heat are incredibly well balanced team, they just aren't the best coached team in the world.  Seriously, Chris Bosh is their third best player.  A 22/10 player for multiple seasons that is still in his prime is their THIRD best player.  Miller and Chalmers are excellent shooters and floor spacers.  Haslem, Battier, and Anthony do the dirty work.  They defend well at all positions. 

If the Heat don't win the title (barring injury) it will be entirely on Spoelstra and his lack of creativity and overall coaching ability, especially on the offensive end of the floor.

  The Heat are talented at the top, but I don't think I'd call a team where 2 players score half or more of the points incredibly balanced, especially when their best players don't complement each other well on offense. You can only blame the coach so much.

Bird and McHale in 85/86 scored just under half of the Celtics points in the playoffs and I don't think there were that many complaints that that team wasn't well balanced.

The reality is, most championship teams are dominated by two elite offensive players and fill in the rest with role players that balance out the stars, especially in the last 30 years where the Bulls were dominated by Jordan and Pippen, the Rockets had Dream and Clyde, the Lakers with Shaq and Kobe, the Mavs last year were essentially the Dirk and Terry show, etc.  Even the Spurs have been essentially a three man show with Duncan, Manu, and Parker (which is much closer to the Heat with Bosh).  Elite players win titles.  Elite players also dominate the scoring of the team they are on.  It is just the way the NBA works except in very rare circumstances (like the Pistons). 

The Heat have a well balanced team.  Elite players, dirty work guys, high percentage shooters, great team and individual defense.  Sure they aren't a perfect team and could always upgrade areas, but they are well balanced.

  Ok, now fit "their two best players are both ball dominant and don't mesh particularly well together" into your analysis, or maybe point out that all of the teams you mentioned had the same type of problem.

[Moranis]

  I'd hazard a guess that you put a lot of stock in the regular season back when the Celts were stinking it up. In any case, I don't see a huge improvement. James is probably playing a little better this year, Bosh is about the same and Wade isn't doing as well. I still don't see their bench players having a huge role on a team with Wade and James, and I don't think that their bench has been earth-shatteringly good either.

Agree with everything here. Well done.

LeBron and Wade have very strong back muscles, due to the heavy carrying they have to do every single night. The team is not well balanced.

Its built around "we have two superstars in their prime, they can carry everyone else, every single night" and when they have an off night, they lose.

KG will destroy Bosh as he has done all throughout his career and especially this season.

Bradley will limit Wade.

Pierce CAN score enough to negate LeBron but he probably wont every single game.

The Key to Miami has always been Bosh.

When Bosh plays well they win, when he doesent they lose because the load is too much to carry for LeBron and Wade.

The Heat are incredibly well balanced team, they just aren't the best coached team in the world.  Seriously, Chris Bosh is their third best player.  A 22/10 player for multiple seasons that is still in his prime is their THIRD best player.  Miller and Chalmers are excellent shooters and floor spacers.  Haslem, Battier, and Anthony do the dirty work.  They defend well at all positions. 

If the Heat don't win the title (barring injury) it will be entirely on Spoelstra and his lack of creativity and overall coaching ability, especially on the offensive end of the floor.

  The Heat are talented at the top, but I don't think I'd call a team where 2 players score half or more of the points incredibly balanced, especially when their best players don't complement each other well on offense. You can only blame the coach so much.

Bird and McHale in 85/86 scored just under half of the Celtics points in the playoffs and I don't think there were that many complaints that that team wasn't well balanced.

The reality is, most championship teams are dominated by two elite offensive players and fill in the rest with role players that balance out the stars, especially in the last 30 years where the Bulls were dominated by Jordan and Pippen, the Rockets had Dream and Clyde, the Lakers with Shaq and Kobe, the Mavs last year were essentially the Dirk and Terry show, etc.  Even the Spurs have been essentially a three man show with Duncan, Manu, and Parker (which is much closer to the Heat with Bosh).  Elite players win titles.  Elite players also dominate the scoring of the team they are on.  It is just the way the NBA works except in very rare circumstances (like the Pistons). 

The Heat have a well balanced team.  Elite players, dirty work guys, high percentage shooters, great team and individual defense.  Sure they aren't a perfect team and could always upgrade areas, but they are well balanced.

  Ok, now fit "their two best players are both ball dominant and don't mesh particularly well together" into your analysis, or maybe point out that all of the teams you mentioned had the same type of problem.

Jordan and Pippen are very similar to James and Wade.  They just had a much better coach.  If the Heat don't win the title (barring injury) it will be almost entirely Spoelstra's fault.  His offense lacks creativity, he just gets the ball to James or Wade and let them go to work.  Which frankly may be enough to win a title because they are that good, but it also could end up like last year against the Mavs. 

[nickagneta]

Jordan and Pippen are very similar to James and Wade.  They just had a much better coach. 

Now this is just deception in my view.

Jordan had one of the most aggressive and dominating personalities in the history of sports. Pippen was a born follower and very submissive in his stance in the locker room and his hierarchy on that team.

He never called for or demanded the ball. Pippen was an extraordinary talent who's game was as good as any #1 option's game but who had the perfect second banana/follower personality and basketball game. He scored within the offense. He didn't specifically look for his offense. Ever. heck the playoffs between the threepeats is proof of that as he asked out of being on the floor during a game deciding last second situation.

LeBron and Wade is not the same as Jordan/Pippen or even Larry/McHale. Lebron and Wade both dominate the ball and attempt to create their own shot and both are alpha personality guys. Neither Larry/McHale nor Jordan/Pippen fall into that same dynamic.

[hpantazo]

[/quote]Jordan and Pippen are very similar to James and Wade.  They just had a much better coach.  If the Heat don't win the title (barring injury) it will be almost entirely Spoelstra's fault.  His offense lacks creativity, he just gets the ball to James or Wade and let them go to work.  Which frankly may be enough to win a title because they are that good, but it also could end up like last year against the Mavs.  
[/quote]

this is not Spoelstra's fault at all. In the first season of Wade-LBJ-Bosh, Spoelstra tried to get them to run his plays and play team ball, and they had serious trouble adapting and the heat got off to a bad start. At some point then, they reverted to Wade and James dominating with one on one plays and left Spoelstra's game plan in the dust. It's pretty clear that Spoelstra didn't have the pull to force them to change their games like Rivers managed to do with Pierce even before LG and Ray came over. This is in part due to lack of support from Riley imo.

[jdz101]

we beat the heat 3 times in april. our bench beat their bench in the 3rd game. i feel good about going against them.

Regular season games mean very little. The heat destroyed us last year after we had a 3-1 edge on them in the regular season.

[17wasEZ]

Didn't Rick Puker pick the Hawks in 7?  I think he is the only one at ESPN that had the Hawks winning the series.

[thestackshow]

we beat the heat 3 times in april. our bench beat their bench in the 3rd game. i feel good about going against them.

Regular season games mean very little. The heat destroyed us last year after we had a 3-1 edge on them in the regular season.

We had an emotionally deflated team back then we no Center rotation guys, no bench, and Rondo with one arm.

We are a much better team this year.

[Kane3387]

Jordan and Pippen are very similar to James and Wade.  They just had a much better coach. 

Now this is just deception in my view.

Jordan had one of the most aggressive and dominating personalities in the history of sports. Pippen was a born follower and very submissive in his stance in the locker room and his hierarchy on that team.

He never called for or demanded the ball. Pippen was an extraordinary talent who's game was as good as any #1 option's game but who had the perfect second banana/follower personality and basketball game. He scored within the offense. He didn't specifically look for his offense. Ever. heck the playoffs between the threepeats is proof of that as he asked out of being on the floor during a game deciding last second situation.

LeBron and Wade is not the same as Jordan/Pippen or even Larry/McHale. Lebron and Wade both dominate the ball and attempt to create their own shot and both are alpha personality guys. Neither Larry/McHale nor Jordan/Pippen fall into that same dynamic.

Well technically he didn't ask out. He refused to go in because he wasn't the one getting to shoot the last second shot.