"Miami does not want to play Boston" -- Bucher

[nickagneta]

An easy way for Miami to avoid playing Boston?  Miami should lose in the next round, then they won't have to worry about it.

GENIUS!!! TP!!

[twinbree]

I don't even want to think about the ECF while we're still in the first round. All this talk of Miami fearing us while we're 2 rounds away makes me worry Rondo is going to be met with a egregious flagrant foul on his first trip into the lane. Or Pierce will get a well placed kick to knee. I finally convinced myself I overreacted to Rondo's elbow but an allstar game and one broken nose later I'm back to worrying how far Wade will go to win.

[Moranis]

Can Moranis please talk to us more about this great depth that Miami has over last year because I'm not seeing it?

I will admit that their bench might be as good as last years but I don't think it any better and think it might be worse.

Miami's playoff starters this year

LeBron
Wade
Bosh
Chalmers
Haslem

Miami's playoff starters last year

LeBron
Wade
Bosh
Bibby
Anthony/Ilgauskas - Ilgauskas wasn't used or was hurt and stopped playing

Miami's playoff rotational bench this year

Battier
Miller
Anthony
Jones - very little playing time
Cole - very little playing time

Miami's playoff rotational bench last year

Miller
Anthony - stopped coming off the bench once Ilgauskas stopped playing
Jones
Haslem
Chalmers
House - very little playing time
Howard - very little playing time

So two of last year's bench players, Haslem and Chalmers, have graduated to the starting lineup, mostly because Bibby is gone and Anthony isn't playing anywhere near the level that he flashed at the end of last year.

Jones' role has been replaced by Battier and Eddie House's role by Norris Cole.

I see a very similar overall skill set on this year's playoff bench with zero good bigs coming off the bench, whereas last year at least Haslem was coming off the bench. I also see a lack of experience coming off the bench instead of vets like Juwan howard and Eddie House I see Joel Anthony and Norris Cole.

Maybe it's just me but I don't see this great increase in bench strength that Moranis is talking about. I still see the Heat's top players playing big minutes even though they absolutely crushed the Knicks in two out of the three games they have played this off season. To me that's a sign of a bad bench.

Haslem played 3 minutes in the entire series against Boston last year.  Miller played 30 minutes in the entire series against Boston (after not playing at all in the last 3 games against Philly).  Just because they were on the team, didn't mean they had any effect at all on the outcome of the Boston series.  They didn't as they barely played.  Just adding those two guys to full health greatly improved the bench (Anthony now on it instead of starting and Miller coming off it).  Add in Battier and you get even more improvement.  That is essentially the Heat's 8 man rotation, much improved from the 8 man rotation against Boston last year (which had Z, Bibby, and Jones instead of Haslem, Miller, and Battier).  

  The Heat had a better winning percentage and better point and efficiency differentials in 10-11 than this year. Considering how poorly they started out in 10-11 it's very probable that they were playing better going into the playoffs last spring than they are now. I think you talked a lot about how much better they were going to be this year than last, but the numbers seem to say the opposite.

I put almost no stock in this regular season with the weird start, no training camp, compressed schedule, etc.  Additionally, the Heat had a lot more injuries to Lebron, Wade, Bosh than they did last year and unlike last year I don't believe the Heat cared at all about their record (and thus took a lot of time off).  Spoelstra was openly trying weird sets, defenses, and lineups, etc. to try and prepare for the playoffs.

The Heat are a better team this year than they were last year.

[BballTim]

Can Moranis please talk to us more about this great depth that Miami has over last year because I'm not seeing it?

I will admit that their bench might be as good as last years but I don't think it any better and think it might be worse.

Miami's playoff starters this year

LeBron
Wade
Bosh
Chalmers
Haslem

Miami's playoff starters last year

LeBron
Wade
Bosh
Bibby
Anthony/Ilgauskas - Ilgauskas wasn't used or was hurt and stopped playing

Miami's playoff rotational bench this year

Battier
Miller
Anthony
Jones - very little playing time
Cole - very little playing time

Miami's playoff rotational bench last year

Miller
Anthony - stopped coming off the bench once Ilgauskas stopped playing
Jones
Haslem
Chalmers
House - very little playing time
Howard - very little playing time

So two of last year's bench players, Haslem and Chalmers, have graduated to the starting lineup, mostly because Bibby is gone and Anthony isn't playing anywhere near the level that he flashed at the end of last year.

Jones' role has been replaced by Battier and Eddie House's role by Norris Cole.

I see a very similar overall skill set on this year's playoff bench with zero good bigs coming off the bench, whereas last year at least Haslem was coming off the bench. I also see a lack of experience coming off the bench instead of vets like Juwan howard and Eddie House I see Joel Anthony and Norris Cole.

Maybe it's just me but I don't see this great increase in bench strength that Moranis is talking about. I still see the Heat's top players playing big minutes even though they absolutely crushed the Knicks in two out of the three games they have played this off season. To me that's a sign of a bad bench.

Haslem played 3 minutes in the entire series against Boston last year.  Miller played 30 minutes in the entire series against Boston (after not playing at all in the last 3 games against Philly).  Just because they were on the team, didn't mean they had any effect at all on the outcome of the Boston series.  They didn't as they barely played.  Just adding those two guys to full health greatly improved the bench (Anthony now on it instead of starting and Miller coming off it).  Add in Battier and you get even more improvement.  That is essentially the Heat's 8 man rotation, much improved from the 8 man rotation against Boston last year (which had Z, Bibby, and Jones instead of Haslem, Miller, and Battier).  

  The Heat had a better winning percentage and better point and efficiency differentials in 10-11 than this year. Considering how poorly they started out in 10-11 it's very probable that they were playing better going into the playoffs last spring than they are now. I think you talked a lot about how much better they were going to be this year than last, but the numbers seem to say the opposite.

I put almost no stock in this regular season with the weird start, no training camp, compressed schedule, etc.  Additionally, the Heat had a lot more injuries to Lebron, Wade, Bosh than they did last year and unlike last year I don't believe the Heat cared at all about their record (and thus took a lot of time off).  Spoelstra was openly trying weird sets, defenses, and lineups, etc. to try and prepare for the playoffs.

The Heat are a better team this year than they were last year.

  I'd hazard a guess that you put a lot of stock in the regular season back when the Celts were stinking it up. In any case, I don't see a huge improvement. James is probably playing a little better this year, Bosh is about the same and Wade isn't doing as well. I still don't see their bench players having a huge role on a team with Wade and James, and I don't think that their bench has been earth-shatteringly good either.

[Moranis]

Can Moranis please talk to us more about this great depth that Miami has over last year because I'm not seeing it?

I will admit that their bench might be as good as last years but I don't think it any better and think it might be worse.

Miami's playoff starters this year

LeBron
Wade
Bosh
Chalmers
Haslem

Miami's playoff starters last year

LeBron
Wade
Bosh
Bibby
Anthony/Ilgauskas - Ilgauskas wasn't used or was hurt and stopped playing

Miami's playoff rotational bench this year

Battier
Miller
Anthony
Jones - very little playing time
Cole - very little playing time

Miami's playoff rotational bench last year

Miller
Anthony - stopped coming off the bench once Ilgauskas stopped playing
Jones
Haslem
Chalmers
House - very little playing time
Howard - very little playing time

So two of last year's bench players, Haslem and Chalmers, have graduated to the starting lineup, mostly because Bibby is gone and Anthony isn't playing anywhere near the level that he flashed at the end of last year.

Jones' role has been replaced by Battier and Eddie House's role by Norris Cole.

I see a very similar overall skill set on this year's playoff bench with zero good bigs coming off the bench, whereas last year at least Haslem was coming off the bench. I also see a lack of experience coming off the bench instead of vets like Juwan howard and Eddie House I see Joel Anthony and Norris Cole.

Maybe it's just me but I don't see this great increase in bench strength that Moranis is talking about. I still see the Heat's top players playing big minutes even though they absolutely crushed the Knicks in two out of the three games they have played this off season. To me that's a sign of a bad bench.

Haslem played 3 minutes in the entire series against Boston last year.  Miller played 30 minutes in the entire series against Boston (after not playing at all in the last 3 games against Philly).  Just because they were on the team, didn't mean they had any effect at all on the outcome of the Boston series.  They didn't as they barely played.  Just adding those two guys to full health greatly improved the bench (Anthony now on it instead of starting and Miller coming off it).  Add in Battier and you get even more improvement.  That is essentially the Heat's 8 man rotation, much improved from the 8 man rotation against Boston last year (which had Z, Bibby, and Jones instead of Haslem, Miller, and Battier).  

  The Heat had a better winning percentage and better point and efficiency differentials in 10-11 than this year. Considering how poorly they started out in 10-11 it's very probable that they were playing better going into the playoffs last spring than they are now. I think you talked a lot about how much better they were going to be this year than last, but the numbers seem to say the opposite.

I put almost no stock in this regular season with the weird start, no training camp, compressed schedule, etc.  Additionally, the Heat had a lot more injuries to Lebron, Wade, Bosh than they did last year and unlike last year I don't believe the Heat cared at all about their record (and thus took a lot of time off).  Spoelstra was openly trying weird sets, defenses, and lineups, etc. to try and prepare for the playoffs.

The Heat are a better team this year than they were last year.

  I'd hazard a guess that you put a lot of stock in the regular season back when the Celts were stinking it up. In any case, I don't see a huge improvement. James is probably playing a little better this year, Bosh is about the same and Wade isn't doing as well. I still don't see their bench players having a huge role on a team with Wade and James, and I don't think that their bench has been earth-shatteringly good either.

When the Celts were stinking up and now, my position hasn't changed with respect to them, i.e. I don't believe it they are a realistic title contender and I would have blown it up.  The only thing that would change my position is getting by the Heat.

[nickagneta]

  I'd hazard a guess that you put a lot of stock in the regular season back when the Celts were stinking it up. In any case, I don't see a huge improvement. James is probably playing a little better this year, Bosh is about the same and Wade isn't doing as well. I still don't see their bench players having a huge role on a team with Wade and James, and I don't think that their bench has been earth-shatteringly good either.

Agree with everything here. Well done.

[Smitty77]

Fafnir,

Taking the average of your four preferred categories, then NY was the 12th best defensive team.  I can buy that.

I can also almost buy that Boston was the 11.35th best defensive team for the entire year.  Remember, we played horrendous defense for almost half a year and rested our starters the last week as well.

Smitty77

[colincb]

Delonte West and Jeff Green are totally offended by your comment (who both btw, played significantly more minutes than Glen Davis in the Miami series)

Both played less minutes per game than BBD did during the season and the playoffs.  BBD played the 5th highest mpg during the season and 6 mpg more than JG and 11 mpg more than DW.  He was clearly the 6th man entering the MIA series.

BBD played 11 mpg less against MIA than during the season, Green played 2 mpg less and Delonte played 4.5 minutes more.  The three had a combined PER of 38.0 during the season to a PER of 25.6 during the playoffs.  None of them have a right to be offended as each played below their regular season PERs during the playoffs.  However, Davis was particularly atrocious in the MIA series averaging 4 ppg, 7.7 ppg below his season's average.  Somehow I think Ray et al can do better.

[soap07]

Fafnir,

Taking the average of your four preferred categories, then NY was the 12th best defensive team.  I can buy that.

I can also almost buy that Boston was the 11.35th best defensive team for the entire year.  Remember, we played horrendous defense for almost half a year and rested our starters the last week as well.

Smitty77

Why would you take the average? That makes no sense.

[thestackshow]

  I'd hazard a guess that you put a lot of stock in the regular season back when the Celts were stinking it up. In any case, I don't see a huge improvement. James is probably playing a little better this year, Bosh is about the same and Wade isn't doing as well. I still don't see their bench players having a huge role on a team with Wade and James, and I don't think that their bench has been earth-shatteringly good either.

Agree with everything here. Well done.

LeBron and Wade have very strong back muscles, due to the heavy carrying they have to do every single night. The team is not well balanced.

Its built around "we have two superstars in their prime, they can carry everyone else, every single night" and when they have an off night, they lose.

KG will destroy Bosh as he has done all throughout his career and especially this season.

Bradley will limit Wade.

Pierce CAN score enough to negate LeBron but he probably wont every single game.

The Key to Miami has always been Bosh.

When Bosh plays well they win, when he doesent they lose because the load is too much to carry for LeBron and Wade.

[Who]

I think Shane Battier is an important bench player for Miami who has been underutilized so far. He should have a major role in a series against the Celtics but I am not sure Spoelstra will give it to him. So he may or may not be a key role player for Miami in that series (depending on Spoelstra).

I haven't been impressed with Haslem this season. His rebounding has been very good but he has struggled heavily offensively and his defense has dropped off some (above average instead of well above average like it has been in the past).

They still can't get Mike Miller to play at a high level. Can't involve him in their offense often enough with the hero-ball from Wade and LeBron. Pushed into a James Jones-like role offensively.

Norris Cole has really struggled after a bright start. Looks like Spoelstra has lost a great deal of confidence in him and rightly so.

Ronny Turiaf gives them improved depth at center but will only make a minor impact. Joel Anthony is still around and is a solid alternative to Turiaf. Unfortunately for Miami, the main problem is Spoelstra still doesn't have a clue how to use his big men properly.

[Who]

Chris Bosh matches up very well with Kevin Garnett.  Last year in the playoffs they were about even and both were well below their season averages in the series.  KG was nominally better in game 5 and was significantly better in game 3 (the only game Boston won), the other 3 games Bosh out played Garnett.  Now I realize, Bosh and KG aren't always matched up head to head, but they generally played each other and they will do so again this year (if that series happens), while Anthony will take Bass (a much better match-up for the Heat - though I would like to think Bass will still be able to find range).

The only spot the Celtics have any sort of real advantage is Rondo against Chalmers and even Chalmers has had pretty solid success against Rondo (comparatively speaking anyway) because Chalmers is one of the few players in the league fast enough to stay with Rondo.  The last two years the rotations of Arroyo/Chalmers and Bibby/Chalmers has basically held Rondo in check in the playoffs (I know Rondo was injured last year so that is a bit skewed).  

The reality is Miami is a horrid match-up for Boston.  

I think Bosh and Garnett can be a neutral matchup if (1) Garnett and Bosh are matched up at center against one another with enough floor spacing to open up the court for each of them (2) matched up at PF alongside one another with limited offensive threats at center ... but not if (3) Garnett is playing center in a spread out offense and Bosh is playing PF in a packed in offense which reduces his offensive opportunities which in turn allows KG to snuff out Bosh's offense.

At the moment, Miami are using Bosh alongside Haslem and are firmly in that #3 category so I'd expect Garnett to have a pretty big advantage over Bosh in a playoff series.

Not because Bosh isn't capable of of contributing more but because Spoelstra isn't using him right (in this specific matchup ... and in general).

[Moranis]

Chris Bosh matches up very well with Kevin Garnett.  Last year in the playoffs they were about even and both were well below their season averages in the series.  KG was nominally better in game 5 and was significantly better in game 3 (the only game Boston won), the other 3 games Bosh out played Garnett.  Now I realize, Bosh and KG aren't always matched up head to head, but they generally played each other and they will do so again this year (if that series happens), while Anthony will take Bass (a much better match-up for the Heat - though I would like to think Bass will still be able to find range).

The only spot the Celtics have any sort of real advantage is Rondo against Chalmers and even Chalmers has had pretty solid success against Rondo (comparatively speaking anyway) because Chalmers is one of the few players in the league fast enough to stay with Rondo.  The last two years the rotations of Arroyo/Chalmers and Bibby/Chalmers has basically held Rondo in check in the playoffs (I know Rondo was injured last year so that is a bit skewed).  

The reality is Miami is a horrid match-up for Boston.  

I think Bosh and Garnett can be a neutral matchup if (1) Garnett and Bosh are matched up at center against one another with enough floor spacing to open up the court for each of them (2) matched up at PF alongside one another with limited offensive threats at center ... but not if (3) Garnett is playing center in a spread out offense and Bosh is playing PF in a packed in offense which reduces his offensive opportunities which in turn allows KG to snuff out Bosh's offense.

At the moment, Miami are using Bosh alongside Haslem and are firmly in that #3 category so I'd expect Garnett to have a pretty big advantage over Bosh in a playoff series.

Not because Bosh isn't capable of of contributing more but because Spoelstra isn't using him right (in this specific matchup ... and in general).

I don't think Bosh will struggle guarding KG no matter the offense the Celtics play at this particular point in their careers, which was really borne out in the regular season, where they both essentially neutralized each other (though KG was the better overall player in 2 of the 3 games - Bosh out-rebounded KG by a large margin in the 3 games).  Those two guys are a wash.  KG will be better one game, Bosh better the next, which has played out the last 12 games they have played each other (heck even the last 4 games of Bosh's Toronto time, it has been true).  They just cancel each other out (though Bosh is consistently the better rebounder at this point even in his poor offensive performances (KG has only won the rebounding edge 3 times in the last 12 games)).

[Moranis]

  I'd hazard a guess that you put a lot of stock in the regular season back when the Celts were stinking it up. In any case, I don't see a huge improvement. James is probably playing a little better this year, Bosh is about the same and Wade isn't doing as well. I still don't see their bench players having a huge role on a team with Wade and James, and I don't think that their bench has been earth-shatteringly good either.

Agree with everything here. Well done.

LeBron and Wade have very strong back muscles, due to the heavy carrying they have to do every single night. The team is not well balanced.

Its built around "we have two superstars in their prime, they can carry everyone else, every single night" and when they have an off night, they lose.

KG will destroy Bosh as he has done all throughout his career and especially this season.

Bradley will limit Wade.

Pierce CAN score enough to negate LeBron but he probably wont every single game.

The Key to Miami has always been Bosh.

When Bosh plays well they win, when he doesent they lose because the load is too much to carry for LeBron and Wade.

The Heat are incredibly well balanced team, they just aren't the best coached team in the world.  Seriously, Chris Bosh is their third best player.  A 22/10 player for multiple seasons that is still in his prime is their THIRD best player.  Miller and Chalmers are excellent shooters and floor spacers.  Haslem, Battier, and Anthony do the dirty work.  They defend well at all positions. 

If the Heat don't win the title (barring injury) it will be entirely on Spoelstra and his lack of creativity and overall coaching ability, especially on the offensive end of the floor.

[Mr October]

The Heat are incredibly well balanced team, they just aren't the best coached team in the world.  Seriously, Chris Bosh is their third best player.  A 22/10 player for multiple seasons that is still in his prime is their THIRD best player.  Miller and Chalmers are excellent shooters and floor spacers.  Haslem, Battier, and Anthony do the dirty work.  They defend well at all positions.

If the Heat don't win the title (barring injury) it will be entirely on Spoelstra and his lack of creativity and overall coaching ability, especially on the offensive end of the floor.

Pretty much. The Heat have just about everything they need to win a title.

Just a couple flaws: The offense in the half court is way too "your turn, my turn". And then they don't have a big guy to protect the rim. Lebron is their best option for that and he has to guard the outside SFs.