"Miami does not want to play Boston" -- Bucher

[Fafnir]

Are certain statistically-good defensive teams more likely to collapse when they play good competition than others?  My guess would be yes.  My speculation is that teams that rank near the top in eFG% allowed (this season, the Bulls and Celtics) are least likely to collapse against good teams.

I wouldn't be shocked if that was the case, but I'd want to look at some research before I assumed it to be true.

I think the Knicks own offense's propensity for live ball turnovers would be as big of a factor as relying on forcing turnovers. Especially given how Miami is so aggressive in transition, the complete joke of game 1 was fueled by 24 turnovers.

Edit: Also looking at opponents shot locations it appears typically the Knicks get beat from the three point line and the foul line. They do a very respectable job of limiting at the rim shot attempts. (only allowing 24 shots at the rim)

If you want to know the value of Dwight Howard, the Magic allow a league low 21 shots at the rim this year. That's with the not very good perimeter defenders surrounding him.

[BballTim]

Sadly I don't think it matters.  The Heat are just too good.

I bet I could find a lot of people making the same comments prior to the Dallas series.  

exactly, and i'd like to think we are a better team defensively than the knicks...

the Heat have NO answer for Rajon rondo or Kevin garnett(with the way he has been playing)

id like to think a series vs. the heat could go either way....and this time we actually have wing defenders in bradley/pietrus we can throw at wade/lebron

Chris Bosh matches up very well with Kevin Garnett.  Last year in the playoffs they were about even and both were well below their season averages in the series.  KG was nominally better in game 5 and was significantly better in game 3 (the only game Boston won), the other 3 games Bosh out played Garnett.  Now I realize, Bosh and KG aren't always matched up head to head, but they generally played each other and they will do so again this year (if that series happens), while Anthony will take Bass (a much better match-up for the Heat - though I would like to think Bass will still be able to find range).

The only spot the Celtics have any sort of real advantage is Rondo against Chalmers and even Chalmers has had pretty solid success against Rondo (comparatively speaking anyway) because Chalmers is one of the few players in the league fast enough to stay with Rondo.  The last two years the rotations of Arroyo/Chalmers and Bibby/Chalmers has basically held Rondo in check in the playoffs (I know Rondo was injured last year so that is a bit skewed).  

The reality is Miami is a horrid match-up for Boston.  

  We've had 6 or so games in the last 2 years where we beat the Heat pretty handily. Granted most of them were regular season, but it certainly hasn't been the case that they've had our number, or that it would be much of a surprise if we beat them in the playoffs.

[angryguy77]

Sadly I don't think it matters.  The Heat are just too good.

I bet I could find a lot of people making the same comments prior to the Dallas series.  

exactly, and i'd like to think we are a better team defensively than the knicks...

the Heat have NO answer for Rajon rondo or Kevin garnett(with the way he has been playing)

id like to think a series vs. the heat could go either way....and this time we actually have wing defenders in bradley/pietrus we can throw at wade/lebron

Chris Bosh matches up very well with Kevin Garnett.  Last year in the playoffs they were about even and both were well below their season averages in the series.  KG was nominally better in game 5 and was significantly better in game 3 (the only game Boston won), the other 3 games Bosh out played Garnett.  Now I realize, Bosh and KG aren't always matched up head to head, but they generally played each other and they will do so again this year (if that series happens), while Anthony will take Bass (a much better match-up for the Heat - though I would like to think Bass will still be able to find range).

The only spot the Celtics have any sort of real advantage is Rondo against Chalmers and even Chalmers has had pretty solid success against Rondo (comparatively speaking anyway) because Chalmers is one of the few players in the league fast enough to stay with Rondo.  The last two years the rotations of Arroyo/Chalmers and Bibby/Chalmers has basically held Rondo in check in the playoffs (I know Rondo was injured last year so that is a bit skewed).  

The reality is Miami is a horrid match-up for Boston.  

One knock i keep hearing about the heat from commentators is they have no real discernable offense. It's basically give the ball to Wade or lebron iso's and get the heck out of the way. I think that plays right into our team defense concepts and puts us at the advantage.

that was the knock on them last year too and they beat boston in 5 games with a lot less quality depth/health.  Pierce isn't fast enough, strong enough, etc. anymore to consistently be able to give James fits (he has his moments, but they are too few and too far between to make a real difference defensively), and Wade should be able to get his looks against Rondo and Bradley (Allen can't slow him down at all anymore).  Now that they have Miller and Battier (and still have Chalmers and Jones), they will be able to kick out and have much more effective looks.  Even Bosh is a pretty solid outside shooter (not at the three line, but foul line extended he is excellent).  They have the pieces there that weren't around last year and Boston could do nothing against them last year. 

Boston's only realistic shot at beating Miami is a Lebron James injury.

Do you really think we wouldn't have won had Rondo not gone down? I think we come out of that series to be honest. Also, do you not remember the ridiculous shots Leroid and Wade were making throughout the whole series? James was making some very tough shots that he never makes in those situations. If they shoot like that again then we have no chance, but I don't see that happening a second year in a row.

Of course they can beat us, but I believe if we bring our A game we can beat them.

[Fafnir]

I don't think you can say we would have won the series if Rondo wasn't hobbled, but it would have gone to 6 games at least.

[angryguy77]

I don't think you can say we would have won the series if Rondo wasn't hobbled, but it would have gone to 6 games at least.

That's true, we still might have lost, but I don't think it's fair to use last year's series as an indication of how this year's series would go if we play them.

Look how close those games were at the end, I think a healthy rondo helps put a few more points on the board and we overcome the ridiculous shooting that James and D "dirt bag" wade throw up. But that's just my opinion and I admit that I could be wrong.

[CelticHooligan3]

I don't think you can say we would have won the series if Rondo wasn't hobbled, but it would have gone to 6 games at least.

Still can't beleive he played after that.. Unreal.

[BballTim]

I don't think you can say we would have won the series if Rondo wasn't hobbled, but it would have gone to 6 games at least.

  If we'd gone back to Miami 2-2 it would have been a different series. We could have lost, or it could have easily gone the same way the Dallas series did.

[CelticG1]

I don't think you can say we would have won the series if Rondo wasn't hobbled, but it would have gone to 6 games at least.

That's true, we still might have lost, but I don't think it's fair to use last year's series as an indication of how this year's series would go if we play them.

Look how close those games were at the end, I think a healthy rondo helps put a few more points on the board and we overcome the ridiculous shooting that James and D "dirt bag" wade throw up. But that's just my opinion and I admit that I could be wrong.

I think people are really dismissing how ridiculous Lebron and Wade were in our series and the Bulls. They were unbelievably clutch especially from 3.

They played ridiculous against 2 of the best defenses in the league and they eventually came back to earth.

Plus the whole matchups thing is overrated. We don't put Pierce or Ray on an island and tell them to guard one if those guys. Our defense is on a string shifting and rotating constantly.

Our offense isn't like that either. Its not as simple as "Lebron is going to shutdown Pierce". Our offense is about moving without the ball and ball movement. We must have the most assists in the league because we take good open shots and our patient with our offense.  We actually run plays

[Q_FBE]

There is a lot of basketball to be played before I get to comment on this thread.

[Kane3387]

I don't think you can say we would have won the series if Rondo wasn't hobbled, but it would have gone to 6 games at least.

Still can't beleive he played after that.. Unreal.

It was insane. He is a tough little S. 0. B.!!! It's why I let the "Bump" slide because any guy willing to do that for his team is not selfish.

[Moranis]

I don't think you can say we would have won the series if Rondo wasn't hobbled, but it would have gone to 6 games at least.

That's true, we still might have lost, but I don't think it's fair to use last year's series as an indication of how this year's series would go if we play them.

Look how close those games were at the end, I think a healthy rondo helps put a few more points on the board and we overcome the ridiculous shooting that James and D "dirt bag" wade throw up. But that's just my opinion and I admit that I could be wrong.

I just don't see Rondo as being to overcome KG, Pierce, and Allen's old age.  The old men were just worn down and couldn't close games.  I think Rondo would have helped, but he wouldn't have made that much of a difference.  The old guys are old and played like it last year.  They seem to have more bounce in their step thus far this post season, but they also aren't playing a physical team like Miami, which I think has a great deal to do with the age rearing its ugly head last year.  Don't get me wrong, I would love to be wrong, but I just can't see Boston beating Miami unless Lebron is injured.

[CelticHooligan3]

I don't think you can say we would have won the series if Rondo wasn't hobbled, but it would have gone to 6 games at least.

That's true, we still might have lost, but I don't think it's fair to use last year's series as an indication of how this year's series would go if we play them.

Look how close those games were at the end, I think a healthy rondo helps put a few more points on the board and we overcome the ridiculous shooting that James and D "dirt bag" wade throw up. But that's just my opinion and I admit that I could be wrong.

I just don't see Rondo as being to overcome KG, Pierce, and Allen's old age.  The old men were just worn down and couldn't close games.  I think Rondo would have helped, but he wouldn't have made that much of a difference.  The old guys are old and played like it last year.  They seem to have more bounce in their step thus far this post season, but they also aren't playing a physical team like Miami, which I think has a great deal to do with the age rearing its ugly head last year.  Don't get me wrong, I would love to be wrong, but I just can't see Boston beating Miami unless Lebron is injured.

To me there's a difference between "physical" and dirty. What Wade did last year falls into the latter catergory for me. But really who's physical on that team? I can name one guy in their rotation.. Haslem. That is all.

[Moranis]

I don't think you can say we would have won the series if Rondo wasn't hobbled, but it would have gone to 6 games at least.

That's true, we still might have lost, but I don't think it's fair to use last year's series as an indication of how this year's series would go if we play them.

Look how close those games were at the end, I think a healthy rondo helps put a few more points on the board and we overcome the ridiculous shooting that James and D "dirt bag" wade throw up. But that's just my opinion and I admit that I could be wrong.

I just don't see Rondo as being to overcome KG, Pierce, and Allen's old age.  The old men were just worn down and couldn't close games.  I think Rondo would have helped, but he wouldn't have made that much of a difference.  The old guys are old and played like it last year.  They seem to have more bounce in their step thus far this post season, but they also aren't playing a physical team like Miami, which I think has a great deal to do with the age rearing its ugly head last year.  Don't get me wrong, I would love to be wrong, but I just can't see Boston beating Miami unless Lebron is injured.

To me there's a difference between "physical" and dirty. What Wade did last year falls into the latter catergory for me. But really who's physical on that team? I can name one guy in their rotation.. Haslem. That is all.

Wade's hit on Rondo was absolutely dirty, but if you don't think the Heat are physical then you aren't watching them that closely.  They are an incredibly physical team on both ends of the floor.  They just use their size, strength, etc. so well. 

[BballTim]

I don't think you can say we would have won the series if Rondo wasn't hobbled, but it would have gone to 6 games at least.

That's true, we still might have lost, but I don't think it's fair to use last year's series as an indication of how this year's series would go if we play them.

Look how close those games were at the end, I think a healthy rondo helps put a few more points on the board and we overcome the ridiculous shooting that James and D "dirt bag" wade throw up. But that's just my opinion and I admit that I could be wrong.

I just don't see Rondo as being to overcome KG, Pierce, and Allen's old age.  The old men were just worn down and couldn't close games.  I think Rondo would have helped, but he wouldn't have made that much of a difference.  The old guys are old and played like it last year.  They seem to have more bounce in their step thus far this post season, but they also aren't playing a physical team like Miami, which I think has a great deal to do with the age rearing its ugly head last year.  Don't get me wrong, I would love to be wrong, but I just can't see Boston beating Miami unless Lebron is injured.

  I think that Pierce, KG and Rondo have all looked significantly better than they did last year entering the playoffs. It's not like they were playing like they are now and then hit a wall against the Heat.

[CelticHooligan3]

I don't think you can say we would have won the series if Rondo wasn't hobbled, but it would have gone to 6 games at least.

That's true, we still might have lost, but I don't think it's fair to use last year's series as an indication of how this year's series would go if we play them.

Look how close those games were at the end, I think a healthy rondo helps put a few more points on the board and we overcome the ridiculous shooting that James and D "dirt bag" wade throw up. But that's just my opinion and I admit that I could be wrong.

I just don't see Rondo as being to overcome KG, Pierce, and Allen's old age.  The old men were just worn down and couldn't close games.  I think Rondo would have helped, but he wouldn't have made that much of a difference.  The old guys are old and played like it last year.  They seem to have more bounce in their step thus far this post season, but they also aren't playing a physical team like Miami, which I think has a great deal to do with the age rearing its ugly head last year.  Don't get me wrong, I would love to be wrong, but I just can't see Boston beating Miami unless Lebron is injured.

To me there's a difference between "physical" and dirty. What Wade did last year falls into the latter catergory for me. But really who's physical on that team? I can name one guy in their rotation.. Haslem. That is all.

Wade's hit on Rondo was absolutely dirty, but if you don't think the Heat are physical then you aren't watching them that closely.  They are an incredibly physical team on both ends of the floor.  They just use their size, strength, etc. so well. 

You might be right. I did forget about battier. But Bostrich, Mike Miller, Mario Chalmers, Lebron and Wade don't really scream "physical" to me. Im gonna make a mental note to look for it now though so thanks. Gotta scout to be up to date.