Draft options

[nostar]

I've been looking at the mock drafts for a couple or weeks now and I think I have a good idea of what players are needed on which teams. Right now our picks look to be 22/23. With those picks we aren't going to get premium talent. The options are:

Trade up
Trade down/out
Chance late 1st-rounders

My feeling is that if we can't trade up we should trade down. The only player worth their salt that might be available at those picks is Arnett Moultrie and it would really depend on what we could get for our picks if Moultrie is the prize of our draft.

So here is my armchair GM-ing.

Plan A: Trade up

Next years draft looks like $hit. Let's throw our 1st next year along with our 1sts this year at the Hornets or the Blazers for their picks this year. If they want assets we can work a sign and trade or Bass or Ray, maybe throw in Johnson as a cheap prospect for the coming years. I'd like to keep Bradley but if it's Bradley + this years picks for both of their 1sts I'm probably going to do that.

Plan B: Trade down/out

At 22/23 the best we can hope for is Moultrie and a cheap backup PG like Marquis Teague or Tyshaun Taylor. I'm willing to trade our picks for a player who is established if we cannot manage Plan A. Some players that might be worth 2 late 1st rounders are:

Josh Smith (wants out, probably won't resign in 2013)
Javale McGee (immature, dumb)
Greg Monroe (maybe not worth it?)
Martin and/or Scola combo (Houston looking to get taller and younger)
Monta Ellis (wishful thinking)
DeMarcus Cousins (I dread this but he's going to be a great center when he stops being a moron)
DeMar DeRozan (wildcard, might only need 1st + 2nd to get him)
Jefferson or Millsap (Utah is stacked at PF)

With that list of proven players I think trading out of this years lauded draft class isn't the worst idea. I'm not looking forward to drafting Fab Melo and Royce White when we inevitably make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs as the 4th seed in the east. With the exception of Josh Smith in Atlanta all of those players are on rebuilding teams. Teams in rebuilds need picks. Seems like a good position for Danny could swing something.

Plan C: Chance picking late (twice)

I have to turn to history here and warn against this. In the last 8 years here are the guys picked 20th or later that have had become stars. My apologies for the subjectivity but I'm talking guys who are considered to be the 1st or 2nd scoring options (allstars) or have outstanding defensive statistics.

2004:
Jameer Nelson
Kevin Martin

2005:
Monta Ellis
David Lee

2006:
RAJON RONDO

2007:
Marc Gasol

2008:
DeAndre Jordan

------------------
And I stretched calling Kevin Martin and DeAndre Jordan stars maybe. Yeah yeah I know Avery Bradley was #19 and Perkins was #27. I know that Jeremy Lin went undrafted. While occassionally late 1st round picks work out the overwhelming majority of the time they don't. History doesn't look favorably on post 20 picks in the last decade, at least not for star players. If we can pull a known quantity from another team for a our picks or even 2 proven glue guys it would be a safer bet. That is why Plan C is the worst. It's the most risky and the least likely to keep us from full rebuild once our veterans retire.

If Danny had a history of drafting well I'd be much more confident in Plan C. Danny is WAY better at trading for players than drafting them. With the exception of 2004 we have pretty much struck out with drafting, including trading Brooks this last year. In 2004 we had 3 first rounders that dramatically increased the odds of us getting something right. I'll credit Danny with Jeff Green, but the genius in that was trading him for Ray. Avery Bradley was a nice grab as well but I'm sure the genius in Bradley will be a trade too. In 9 years as GM Danny has made 2 great picks. Jefferson (traded for KG) and Green (traded for Ray). Now that isn't nothing but it's also 2 for 20...3/19 if you count Bradley as a success at this point. My point is that I'm way more comfortable with Danny making deals than making drafts.

[LooseCannon]

You missed at 20th or later guys who are currently their team's #2 scorer in Kyle Lowry, Paul Milsap, and Ryan Anderson, as well as Sacramento's top scorer Marcus Thornton.  I'd rather have Anderson rather than any of the late first round picks you mentioned except for Rondo and maybe Marc Gasol.   I also find it amusing that half of the ten veterans you mention under Plan B were drafted 20th overall or later.

Trading for known, veteran quantities is clearly the best idea.  That is, it is the best idea if your goal is to minimize the probability that the Celtics end up with a star.  I'm not really interested in making trades with the same mindset that led to Joe Johnson for Tony Delk and Rodney Rogers.  Based on past results, I estimate that a pick in the 21-30 range has about a 30% chance of being good enough to be a regular rotation player on a playoff team and a 10% chance of being an above-average starter.

You seem to under-estimate the value of a late first-round pick while simultaneously over-estmating its trade value.

[nostar]

You missed at 20th or later guys who are currently their team's #2 scorer in Kyle Lowry, Paul Milsap, and Ryan Anderson, as well as Sacramento's top scorer Marcus Thornton.

You're right I took some license with who I included as a star, then again I prefaced it with a couple of guidelines and admitted to it being a subjective list.

I'd rather have Anderson rather than any of the late first round picks you mentioned except for Rondo and maybe Marc Gasol.

Maybe Marc Gasol? You're rather have Anderson...who is almost certainly a product of a playing with the most dominant center in the NBA rather than Josh Smith or Monta Ellis? I am at a loss there. You have got to be out of your mind.

I also find it amusing that half of the ten veterans you mention under Plan B were drafted 20th overall or later.

I'm not saying players drafted 20th or later can't be good. I'm saying it's uncommon. I'm more than happy to trade for players who were late drafts and made the most out of it. I think it's in our interest to do so.

I estimate that a pick in the 21-30 range has about a 30% chance of being good enough to be a regular rotation player on a playoff team and a 10% chance of being an above-average starter.

Your metric isn't totally what I'm aiming for, which isn't bad but that is where I take issue. I don't want a regular rotation player for a playoff team. I'm looking to maximize our gain from the picks we have this year. We don't get 2 first-round picks very often and we're going to have a lot of cap space to resign anyone who comes here. Also I have no idea where you get the 30% number. From my research that estimation is probably twice what it should be.

You seem to under-estimate the value of a late first-round pick while simultaneously over-estmating its trade value.

I "under-estimate" their value for us. I don't think we can get the things we need at those spots in the draft. Or more accurately I think it's possible that we can get more for trading our picks to teams in full rebuild.

[mctyson]

If any trading happens it will be marginally up or down, like we did last year for JJJ.  I would prefer trading the later 1st rounder for a 2 and a future first.  I think this draft is deep enough to get complementary players in the late 1st, early second round.  If this C's could pick up a 2 in the 30's for their 1st in the mid 20's, and get a future first from a team likely to be in the lottery next year, I pull the trigger.

Then again, it depends what the offseason plan is.  

[European NBA fan]

I've been looking at the mock drafts for a couple or weeks now and I think I have a good idea of what players are needed on which teams. Right now our picks look to be 22/23. With those picks we aren't going to get premium talent. The options are:

Trade up
Trade down/out
Chance late 1st-rounders

My feeling is that if we can't trade up we should trade down. The only player worth their salt that might be available at those picks is Arnett Moultrie and it would really depend on what we could get for our picks if Moultrie is the prize of our draft.

So here is my armchair GM-ing.

Plan A: Trade up

Next years draft looks like $hit. Let's throw our 1st next year along with our 1sts this year at the Hornets or the Blazers for their picks this year. If they want assets we can work a sign and trade or Bass or Ray, maybe throw in Johnson as a cheap prospect for the coming years. I'd like to keep Bradley but if it's Bradley + this years picks for both of their 1sts I'm probably going to do that.

Plan B: Trade down/out

At 22/23 the best we can hope for is Moultrie and a cheap backup PG like Marquis Teague or Tyshaun Taylor. I'm willing to trade our picks for a player who is established if we cannot manage Plan A. Some players that might be worth 2 late 1st rounders are:

Josh Smith (wants out, probably won't resign in 2013)
Javale McGee (immature, dumb)
Greg Monroe (maybe not worth it?)
Martin and/or Scola combo (Houston looking to get taller and younger)
Monta Ellis (wishful thinking)
DeMarcus Cousins (I dread this but he's going to be a great center when he stops being a moron)
DeMar DeRozan (wildcard, might only need 1st + 2nd to get him)
Jefferson or Millsap (Utah is stacked at PF)

With that list of proven players I think trading out of this years lauded draft class isn't the worst idea. I'm not looking forward to drafting Fab Melo and Royce White when we inevitably make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs as the 4th seed in the east. With the exception of Josh Smith in Atlanta all of those players are on rebuilding teams. Teams in rebuilds need picks. Seems like a good position for Danny could swing something.

Plan C: Chance picking late (twice)

I have to turn to history here and warn against this. In the last 8 years here are the guys picked 20th or later that have had become stars. My apologies for the subjectivity but I'm talking guys who are considered to be the 1st or 2nd scoring options (allstars) or have outstanding defensive statistics.

2004:
Jameer Nelson
Kevin Martin

2005:
Monta Ellis
David Lee

2006:
RAJON RONDO

2007:
Marc Gasol

2008:
DeAndre Jordan

------------------
And I stretched calling Kevin Martin and DeAndre Jordan stars maybe. Yeah yeah I know Avery Bradley was #19 and Perkins was #27. I know that Jeremy Lin went undrafted. While occassionally late 1st round picks work out the overwhelming majority of the time they don't. History doesn't look favorably on post 20 picks in the last decade, at least not for star players. If we can pull a known quantity from another team for a our picks or even 2 proven glue guys it would be a safer bet. That is why Plan C is the worst. It's the most risky and the least likely to keep us from full rebuild once our veterans retire.

If Danny had a history of drafting well I'd be much more confident in Plan C. Danny is WAY better at trading for players than drafting them. With the exception of 2004 we have pretty much struck out with drafting, including trading Brooks this last year. In 2004 we had 3 first rounders that dramatically increased the odds of us getting something right. I'll credit Danny with Jeff Green, but the genius in that was trading him for Ray. Avery Bradley was a nice grab as well but I'm sure the genius in Bradley will be a trade too. In 9 years as GM Danny has made 2 great picks. Jefferson (traded for KG) and Green (traded for Ray). Now that isn't nothing but it's also 2 for 20...3/19 if you count Bradley as a success at this point. My point is that I'm way more comfortable with Danny making deals than making drafts.

Danny's picks:

2004: Jefferson (15), West (24), Allen (25) - no busts, but regular starters/key bench players. Justin Reed (40) at least got a couple of seasons in the NBA.

2005: G. Green (18) - seems to be maturing, but could be considered a bust. Still he is a legit NBA player now. Ryan Gomes (50). An NBA starter until this season. Good find.

2006: Traded the 7th pick for Telfair (no draft bust, but a bad deal). Rajon Rondo (21) steal of the draft (along with Millsap). Leon Powe (49) again a good find. No later picks from that year have had any impact.

2007: Jeff Green (5) traded for Ray Allen (huge deal - instrumental in bringing the Big 3 together). Gabe Pruitt (32) and Glen Davis (35). Big Baby was a 6th Man of the Year candidate last season (until his horrible shooting slump). Good find.

2008: J.R. Giddens (30). A bust, but not much talent when you draft this late (although Dragic, Pekovic and Jordan stand out). Bill Walker (47) and Semih Erden (60) - two legit NBA players.

2009: No first round pick (in the KG trade). Lester Hudson (58), still in the NBA.

2010: Avery Bradley (19), appears to be a possible starting sg or at least a fine rotational player. Luke Harangody (52), still in the league.

2011: JaJuan Johnson (27), E'Twaun Moore (55). The jury is still out...

I think Ainge does a pretty good job, when he estimates talent in the draft.

[LooseCannon]

I'd rather have Anderson rather than any of the late first round picks you mentioned except for Rondo and maybe Marc Gasol.

Maybe Marc Gasol? You're rather have Anderson...who is almost certainly a product of a playing with the most dominant center in the NBA rather than Josh Smith or Monta Ellis? I am at a loss there. You have got to be out of your mind.

I would say Anderson is better than Rashard Lewis at his best in Orlando, and we have data on Lewis in Seattle for how he would play without Dwight Howard.

I estimate that a pick in the 21-30 range has about a 30% chance of being good enough to be a regular rotation player on a playoff team and a 10% chance of being an above-average starter.

Your metric isn't totally what I'm aiming for, which isn't bad but that is where I take issue. I don't want a regular rotation player for a playoff team. I'm looking to maximize our gain from the picks we have this year. We don't get 2 first-round picks very often and we're going to have a lot of cap space to resign anyone who comes here. Also I have no idea where you get the 30% number. From my research that estimation is probably twice what it should be.

The 30% comes from me counting the number of players who had a peak of at least two years where I think they performed well enough that could have been a regular rotation player for a playoff team.

You seem to under-estimate the value of a late first-round pick while simultaneously over-estmating its trade value.

I "under-estimate" their value for us. I don't think we can get the things we need at those spots in the draft. Or more accurately I think it's possible that we can get more for trading our picks to teams in full rebuild.

My problem with your idea is that you seem to be looking for a sure thing.  Let's say that Josh Smith has an arbitrary value of 8 on a scale of 1 to 10.  With a late first round pick, let's say you have a 10% chance of getting a player worth 8, a 20% chance of a player worth 6, a 30% chance of a 5, a 20% chance of a 4, and a 20% of a 2.  Your expected value for a pick is 4.7, so you total value of two picks in 9.4 and you would be doing the opposite of maximizing value if you traded those two picks for Josh Smith.

Now, that's not an accurate valuation of Smith and the picks, just a simplified illustration to show how taking the riskier path may be the better option.  I'd suggest that keeping both picks means that there's close to a 20% chance of getting at least one player on the level of Kevin Martin and at least a 50% chance of getting a player on the level of Taj Gibson.

[Evantime34]

I disagree that moltrie will be the only good player left when we select. I expect some combination of royce white, dion waiters, terrence ross, mason plumlee, tony wroten jr all who I expect will be nba players available when we pick.

I'm not trading Bradley plus picks unless it gets us into the top five. Bradley is only 21 playing elite defense and has improved so much just this year. Next year I anticipate him improving just as much and giving us a constant defensive force at the 2.

[erisred]

To be a real contender in the NBA, you need a superstar with a good sidekick (or two or three near superstars) and a good supporting cast. It is *very* unlikely that the C's can get their next franchise player in this draft. It's even more unlikely that trading 2 later 1st round picks will get the C's the player(s) they really need going forward.

Frankly, I think that trading the late picks for one/some pretty good player(s) is the worst thing Danny could do. We would end up being just good enough to never be bad enough to move out of the middle of the pack. That's NBA purgatory and it is where most of the teams in the league reside year in and year out.

I think the Celtics might be able to stay "marginal" contenders (like they are now) for a year longer with the addition of a player or two. After that, though, the team will have to crash *hard* and become really, really, bad for a while before getting good again. However, if Danny gets a couple of good young players in this draft who develop over time and Bradley really turns into something and JJ develops then the time at the *bottom* can be limited to 1 or 2 years.

I don't see a way forward that doesn't include a trip to the bottom.  The way back up to the top, though, could come via trade, draft and/or free agent. By trade, we have to have the "assets" to deal (very good young players with "upside"). By draft, least likely to be honest, we need to hit the bottom to get shots at top picks...it took Chicago 10 years, but it only took Seattle/Oka 3 or 4. By FA, we still need the "assets" to lure them here...cap space ($$$) and good players (or the assets to get them).