if we keep winning games ainge is probably going to package our picks for rivers

[Marcus13]

Ewww - I wouldnt touch Austin Rivers with a ten foot pole in the first round

[Cman]

I think it is more likely (and probably smarter) for Ainge to trade down and acquire a future first round pick. 

Ditto, especially if the Cs end up with 2 second round picks as well.

Acquiring a future first will also help with potential trades in the future. Ainge is all about acquiring assets.
In terms of assets:
3 non-lottery rookies and a future first > 4 non-lottery rookies.

[nickagneta]

I think it is more likely (and probably smarter) for Ainge to trade down and acquire a future first round pick. 

Ditto, especially if the Cs end up with 2 second round picks as well.

Acquiring a future first will also help with potential trades in the future. Ainge is all about acquiring assets.
In terms of assets:
3 non-lottery rookies and a future first > 4 non-lottery rookies.

When the Celtics were in a "win now" mode and looking to get similar talent to the end of the first round but didn't want to be locked into a first round contact, trading down made sense, especially if you had intel that your player would still be there many picks later.

Here I think Danny no longer is worrying about the guarantee of first round picks and since the big time, difference making free agents are all off the board, I don't see him worrying about putting to many prospects on this team. So the better the prospect, the more likely they get on this team next year.

And the best prospects in this draft will be found in the top 20-25 picks. Once you hit the 27-28 player, I think this draft turns from, getting a definite role player to the general crap shoot you see every year at the end of the first and into the second round.

There are 3 possibly 5 All-Stars caliber players:

Anthony Davis
Michael Kidd Gilchrist(if he comes out)
Thomas Robinson
Bradley Beal
Harrison Barnes(though he's more of a Melo type All-Star, selfish scorer with lots of hype)

After that there's probably 20 or so players that will be solid starters to excellent role players in the NBA and have the potential to once or twice be All-Stars:

Austin Rivers
Tyler Zeller
Cody Zeller
Jared Sullinger
Andre Drummond
Jeremy Lamb
Perry Jones
Damian Lilliard
Terrence Jones
James McAdoo
John Henson
Quincy Miller
Kendall Marshall
Terrence Jones
Terrence Ross
Royce White
Myers Leonard
Dion Walters
Arnett Moultrie

After that, I really think that you are taking as big a gamble on anyone else as you are on any players you would normally be seeing in the end of the first or second round of any other year. This draft is deep, its not endless and IMO, the quality depth ends right around 25.

[EDWARDO]

Picks 21-30 in the past decade or so have turned up three marginal all stars, and very few top rotation players.  I wouldn't trade the 12th pick for the 22 and 24th, for example, even in a deep draft.  If some team is hungry with quantity over quality, more power to them, and Ainge would probably be ready to oblige them/  

2009 - Darren Collison, Rodrigue Beaubois, Taj Gibson
2008 - Ryan Anderson, Nicolas Batum, Serge Ibaka, George Hill
2007 - Wilson Chandler, Aaron Afflalo, Aaron Brooks, Tiago Splitter
2006 - Rajon Rondo, Kyle Lowry
2005 - David Lee
2004 - Delonte West, Tony Allen, Kevin Martin, Beno Udrih
2003 - Boris Diaw, Travis Outlaw, Kendrick Perkins, Leandor Barbosa, Josh Howard
2002 - Tayshaun Prince, Nenad Krstic, John Salmons

Funny how many of those values were drafted by our GM.

they were, though he has clearly missed on a some picks since then, he has by and large has done a very solid job drafting overall.  Yet another reason to keep 2 picks rather than trade for 1 pick.  

Ainge's track record has been pretty decent, with 1 out of 3 1st round draft picks panning out (Bradley), and maybe Johnson does one day too.

Holding him responsible for missing out on guys like Isiah Thomas isn't really fair.

I saw Ted Williams pop up to left field once. He really blew that at bat. Next guy up hot a hit. Williams sucks.

[cman88]

I would say johnson will end up being a success as well...hes not ready yet defensively. But he can score as we saw when he filled in for Bass

Right now it looks like we have the 17th and 22nd pick..you could find some solid players with those picks.

[Chris]

I am all for trading up in the draft.  I think it is a good way to get the best talent.  However, you trade up for someone you are convinced will be great.  Rivers has too many questions on any team, let alone a team where he would present a major chemistry question, playing for his father.  You can't give up extra assets to trade for a risk like that.

I think you can trade up if a guy like Sullinger, Barnes, or someone else like that fell.  Guys who have less bust potential, even if their cielings might not be sky high.  Giving up extra assets for a high risk guy like Rivers, Drummond, or Perry Jones, is how you really set your franchise back.

[Q_FBE]

I think I might trade downtown avoid Austin Rivers. We can possibly get a proven player like Kirk Hinrich or Drew Gooden in a sign and trade.

[Fan from VT]

On a team with Ronod and Pierce signed for next season and Bradley actually emerging, why would we package picks to move up to grab another guard? NONE of Rondo/Bradley/Rivers can play the three, we have a GAPING whole in Center, our SF and PF are old and our PF is not even under contract.

We need to keep our picks and go 4/5 with one if not both or trade up for a better 4/5. We cannot use 2 picks to get one guard unless other unexpected moves are made.

[EDWARDO]

I think I might trade downtown avoid Austin Rivers. We can possibly get a proven player like Kirk Hinrich or Drew Gooden in a sign and trade.

I also hope to get gout and lose my job. Let's cross our fingers!!!

[slamtheking]

bad idea.

1) SG is not the position of greatest need on this team with Bradley emerging as a real talent.  He might not score like Rivers but his shot is definitely coming around and Rivers is not even close to being as good as Bradley on D.
2) Rivers very well may be available when the C's make their first pick without having to move up.  I'd still only take him if he's the BPA at that time.
3) If Ainge trades both firsts to move up, he does it to get a big man.  That's just a conventional wisdom, you make moves for talented big men rather than guards. 
4) Rivers is slotted for late teens/early 20's for a reason -- he's really raw and going to need time to develop.  If he was known to turn out to be the next Kobe or MJ, yes, make the trade BUT there's no one that would even suggest he'd be that good.

[EDWARDO]

I think I might trade downtown avoid Austin Rivers. We can possibly get a proven player like Kirk Hinrich or Drew Gooden in a sign and trade.

I also hope to get gout and lose my job. Let's cross our fingers!!!

Want to clear that I do NOT think trading first founders in a great draft for guys like Drew Gooden and Hinrich is a good idea. In fact, I think it is a very very very very bad idea.

[LooseCannon]

1) SG is not the position of greatest need on this team with Bradley emerging as a real talent.  He might not score like Rivers but his shot is definitely coming around and Rivers is not even close to being as good as Bradley on D.

Especially given the age of the current roster and the possibility that either Bradley or whoever is drafted could be part of a package that Ainge tries to put together to acquire a star to play alongside Rondo, the Celtics would probably be better off drafting the best player available (or, at least, the best player available who fits the team's style of play) rather than targeting specific positions.

[slamtheking]

1) SG is not the position of greatest need on this team with Bradley emerging as a real talent.  He might not score like Rivers but his shot is definitely coming around and Rivers is not even close to being as good as Bradley on D.

Especially given the age of the current roster and the possibility that either Bradley or whoever is drafted could be part of a package that Ainge tries to put together to acquire a star to play alongside Rondo, the Celtics would probably be better off drafting the best player available (or, at least, the best player available who fits the team's style of play) rather than targeting specific positions.

BPA is almost always the smart move.  Unless the team has a glut of players at that same position, in which case a trade moving that player for someone that fills a hole and another asset is the better move.

bank on Danny taking the BPA when he picks.

[Chris]

1) SG is not the position of greatest need on this team with Bradley emerging as a real talent.  He might not score like Rivers but his shot is definitely coming around and Rivers is not even close to being as good as Bradley on D.

Especially given the age of the current roster and the possibility that either Bradley or whoever is drafted could be part of a package that Ainge tries to put together to acquire a star to play alongside Rondo, the Celtics would probably be better off drafting the best player available (or, at least, the best player available who fits the team's style of play) rather than targeting specific positions.

BPA is almost always the smart move.  Unless the team has a glut of players at that same position, in which case a trade moving that player for someone that fills a hole and another asset is the better move.

bank on Danny taking the BPA when he picks.

I agree that you never pass on the best player available, just because of fit.  However, it is rare that there is someone that much better than the other players available at that point in the draft.  After the first few picks, everyone is kind of an eye of the beholder type...which means it is important to take fit into consideration, to maximize the value.

Now, that doesn't mean you have to take a center, because that is a hole in your roster...because you shouldn't be counting as a rookie to fill a role like that anyways.  But, you don't want a guy to be too blocked, that it will stop them from developing. 

It's a delicate balance.

[LooseCannon]

I do think that fitting into the system is something important.  If the best player available won't function well within the more complicated Celtics defense, then he won't play under Doc Rivers and he will neither contribute nor build up trade value.  If the best player available is an iso-ball scoring wing in love with taking hero shots who doesn't fit the team's offense, then maybe the Celtics should pass and either get the next best player if he is close in value or look to trade down or into next year.