if we keep winning games ainge is probably going to package our picks for rivers

[pearljammer10]

Austin Rivers is nowhere close to being worth 2 1st rounders.

Somehow, I think Danny and his scouting staff already knows this.  I doubt there is even a notion of this going on right now.

thank you. words right out of my mouth

[LooseCannon]

i guess my question at this point is what is the different, talent-wise between a 14 pick and a 28 pick? if this is a deep draft, does that mean that the talent level is pretty much the same for the bottom half of the draft?

if so, then moving up or down may not be a prime motive for ainge.

i am looking forward to see what ainge does this draft. i suspect he will be moving around on draft day. maybe he will buy a first round pick if one is available.

Historically, there are always a few players available for the 28th pick who out-perform the 14th pick in the draft (unless the 14th pick turns out to be a real stud).  So, anyone who says that a late first-round pick is worthless is an idiot.  In the bottom third of the first round, you probably have about a one-in-three chance of getting a player who will eventually be a starter somewhere for at least a couple of seasons (but a player can be a bad starter). 

Here's how Ainge will probably go about things.  Once the draft order is established, he will try to figure out how far he can move up if he tries to package pick, and possibly other assets.  Then, he will evaluate players who he thinks he can get with picks he either already owns or believes he can trade for.  If he expects the gettable player he likes most will be drafted ahead of his best pick, then he will try to trade up.  If he thinks he can trade down and still get the guy he wants for a smaller salary slot while also picking up something useful such as a second round pick, then he will trade down.  If all the players he likes get drafted, he'll probably try to make a move to acquire a future first round pick.

[Moranis]

Picks 21-30 in the past decade or so have turned up three marginal all stars, and very few top rotation players.  I wouldn't trade the 12th pick for the 22 and 24th, for example, even in a deep draft.  If some team is hungry with quantity over quality, more power to them, and Ainge would probably be ready to oblige them/  

2009 - Darren Collison, Rodrigue Beaubois, Taj Gibson
2008 - Ryan Anderson, Nicolas Batum, Serge Ibaka, George Hill
2007 - Wilson Chandler, Aaron Afflalo, Aaron Brooks, Tiago Splitter
2006 - Rajon Rondo, Kyle Lowry
2005 - David Lee
2004 - Delonte West, Tony Allen, Kevin Martin, Beno Udrih
2003 - Boris Diaw, Travis Outlaw, Kendrick Perkins, Leandor Barbosa, Josh Howard
2002 - Tayshaun Prince, Nenad Krstic, John Salmons

Those are just the best of the best, plenty of very solid rotation players or young guys that could still be stars (obviously Rondo stands out among that list, but there are plenty of other good starters in that mix).  

The 12th Picks during that period - Melvin Ely, Nick Collison, Robert Swift, Yaroslav Korolev, Hilton Armstrong, Thaddeus Young, Jason Thompson, Gerald Henderson.  Not exactly the cream of the crop coming out of the 12th pick from 2002-2009.  In fact 2007 with Thad Young (and it is arguable) is the only year where you would even want the 12th pick over any of the players from 21-30 that I identified (there are plenty of crappy players in those picks as well, which aren't identified) nonetheless two players from 21-30.  The 12th picks have been terrible of late.   

[EDWARDO]

Um Evidence?  or just pure speculation?

Seriously I am now pulling for Rivers to get drafted by the Celtics, just so I can read the comments when he averages 3 pts no assists, no steals in 15 mins of play.

What will EVEN BETTER is reading the same people eat crow when he's scoring 20 points per game his 3rd year.

I've truly enjoyed everyone who was POSITIVE Bradley was GARBAGE back track. Fantastic.

[Tradetime]

One mock draft has us at the 17th pick, taking Tyler Zeller with that pick - and I'd be perfectly fine with that: a big that can run the floor, makes his free throws, and has a decent offensive game. I'd hate to see us slide down into the late 20's, only to see Ainge play the "I have this mysterious player up my sleeve" trick, a la J.R. Giddens.

[esel1000]

it wouldnt be for rivers... this teams drafting a center, especially if we trade up and only have one pick no questions asked

[byennie]

I don't see why we would spend both of our picks to have someone compete with Bradley for playing time. We need young bodies, but not all at the same position.

If we trade up, I'd expect it either to be for size, or move WAY up based on someone valuing Bradley, who has suddenly become one of our most tradable assets. If Bradley + picks could get us high enough, it would be worth considering.

One way or another I think we're getting the best center we can, not cashing out for Rivers.

[manl_lui]

as most of the above already said, Rivers is not worth 2 first rounders, the only player I consider for both first rounder is Anthony Davis and Thomas Robinson (yes I watched the finals game today lol)

if we plan on bringing back the big 3 for cheap, I say use our two draft pick to draft a small forward and a center

[colincb]

If the draft is a crap shoot, then I'd rather roll the dice twice than once.  Rivers may well be the BPA when we first pick, but if he's gone earlier, so what?  There are plenty of professional basketball people who aren't in love with his game, even if some here think he's scoring 20+ by year 3.  Bird and PP managed to average 20+ per year in their third year. Parish, Mchale, Allen, and KG didn't.  So Austin Rivers would be better than 2/3rds of the either Big 3.  

If we decide to blow up the team so that we can experience the thrill of the next 5-10 years in lottery-land, then it's possible Austin could pull that off.  It's far less likely if we add a couple of very good FAs for 10-12MM each to the Big 4.  Rivers, if we pick him, probably ends up in the NDBL under that scenario.  OMG, what a disappointment to some that would be if we actually try to contend for the next 2 years.

[lightspeed5]

Um Evidence?  or just pure speculation?

Seriously I am now pulling for Rivers to get drafted by the Celtics, just so I can read the comments when he averages 3 pts no assists, no steals in 15 mins of play.

What will EVEN BETTER is reading the same people eat crow when he's scoring 20 points per game his 3rd year.

I've truly enjoyed everyone who was POSITIVE Bradley was GARBAGE back track. Fantastic.

exactly. tp.

[EDWARDO]

If the draft is a crap shoot, then I'd rather roll the dice twice than once.  Rivers may well be the BPA when we first pick, but if he's gone earlier, so what?  There are plenty of professional basketball people who aren't in love with his game, even if some here think he's scoring 20+ by year 3.  Bird and PP managed to average 20+ per year in their third year. Parish, Mchale, Allen, and KG didn't.  So Austin Rivers would be better than 2/3rds of the either Big 3.  

If we decide to blow up the team so that we can experience the thrill of the next 5-10 years in lottery-land, then it's possible Austin could pull that off.  It's far less likely if we add a couple of very good FAs for 10-12MM each to the Big 4.  Rivers, if we pick him, probably ends up in the NDBL under that scenario.  OMG, what a disappointment to some that would be if we actually try to contend for the next 2 years.

Have heard many people say this draft has 25 solid players, but only a few great ones. IE, the difference between the 6th pick and the 26th pick is not that wide...  Perfect scenario if you own picks 20 and 22....

The Clips winning streak is a gigantic biker though.

[EDWARDO]

If the draft is a crap shoot, then I'd rather roll the dice twice than once.  Rivers may well be the BPA when we first pick, but if he's gone earlier, so what?  There are plenty of professional basketball people who aren't in love with his game, even if some here think he's scoring 20+ by year 3.  Bird and PP managed to average 20+ per year in their third year. Parish, Mchale, Allen, and KG didn't.  So Austin Rivers would be better than 2/3rds of the either Big 3.  

If we decide to blow up the team so that we can experience the thrill of the next 5-10 years in lottery-land, then it's possible Austin could pull that off.  It's far less likely if we add a couple of very good FAs for 10-12MM each to the Big 4.  Rivers, if we pick him, probably ends up in the NDBL under that scenario.  OMG, what a disappointment to some that would be if we actually try to contend for the next 2 years.

Have heard many people say this draft has 25 solid players, but only a few great ones. IE, the difference between the 6th pick and the 26th pick is not that wide...  Perfect scenario if you own picks 20 and 22....

The Clips winning streak is a gigantic biker though.

Err, gigantic bummer, not biker... Interesting visual though

[guava_wrench]

i saw the kid play..and i don't see the big deal..he was sort of a ball hog, and he turned it over a lot..maybe just the one game..but he is just another guard...is he great..i don't see it...the Celtics need another big man or 2, or 3.....if they can get them........i heard his interview....you thought rondo was cocky....this kid is 19..and in his interview, he was so proud of himself, and only himself..and all HE did...ya WOW, a big 19 years......and a father coaching that kid...hardly would work...spoiled..and he wouldn't listen...he wasn't even wearing a Celtics hat at his fathers teams game.....

What interview was that. I only saw the interview at the Celtics game and he seem pretty reasonable in that interview. Sounded grounded and he seemed to have a good perspective on things.

Rondo is at another level on cocky so you need a lot more to go on before making the jump to comparing anyone to him for your claim to be anything more than hyperbole.

[democritic]

If the draft is a crap shoot, then I'd rather roll the dice twice than once.

This.

[chambers]

I have no idea why you think Danny would give up two first rounders in this draft for someone we might be moving up 2-4 places to get.
This is simply illogical.
Austin is good, but he's not good enough to give up two first rounders.
You're dreaming bro.