Author Topic: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...  (Read 12312 times)

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Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #45 on: February 14, 2012, 03:11:40 PM »

Online Moranis

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What do they seriously think they'll get for Nash at age 38?



Here is your problem.  You are thinking about this as Nash for Rondo.  Nash is close to a throw-in in that deal.  Gortat has become one of the best centers in the league, and is also one of the biggest bargains in the league.  He is the holdup, and they are right to ask for the moon for him.

Agreed.  The deal proposed in the original thread would have been a fair package for both teams at the start of the season, but since then, Rondo has had an up and down season while Gortat has been a top 10 center in the league. 

Of course, a big part of that is likely the Steve Nash effect -- which is the same reason Amare hasn't been nearly as impressive since joining the Knicks.  Still, talented 7 footers are worth a lot more than talented point guards in this league.

  Amare was fairly impressive until the Knicks traded for Melo.


Surely.

Still, not as impressive as he was playing alongside Nash.
actually he was.  Amare was putting up MVP numbers until the Melo trade last year.
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Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #46 on: February 14, 2012, 03:13:20 PM »

Offline goCeltics

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problem for the suns is that gortat is a ufa in two years, and that team is headed nowhere, an offer of rondo and the oppurtinty to shed a contract should be more than enough. Besides there are other centers on the market that should help this team or doc can just play wilcox, amazing how much better rondo looks when somebody runs with him

Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #47 on: February 14, 2012, 03:14:37 PM »

Online Moranis

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What do they seriously think they'll get for Nash at age 38?



Here is your problem.  You are thinking about this as Nash for Rondo.  Nash is close to a throw-in in that deal.  Gortat has become one of the best centers in the league, and is also one of the biggest bargains in the league.  He is the holdup, and they are right to ask for the moon for him.

Agreed.  The deal proposed in the original thread would have been a fair package for both teams at the start of the season, but since then, Rondo has had an up and down season while Gortat has been a top 10 center in the league.  

Of course, a big part of that is likely the Steve Nash effect -- which is the same reason Amare hasn't been nearly as impressive since joining the Knicks.  Still, talented 7 footers are worth a lot more than talented point guards in this league.

  Amare was fairly impressive until the Knicks traded for Melo.


I would put that another way.  Amare was impressive until the Knicks traded away Felton.  Amare is a pick and roll big man, and without a PG who can run the pick and roll, he is not very good.
Amare is a 20 point scorer and about 8 rebounds a game and has been fairly consistent in those numbers every year.  Last year pre-Melo trade he was an upper 20's scorer and still finished at over 25 a game.  Even with the disaster that was the Knicks starting PG situation this year he is still at over 18 a game.  To call him not very good is just plain silly.
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Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #48 on: February 14, 2012, 03:17:14 PM »

Offline Chris

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What do they seriously think they'll get for Nash at age 38?



Here is your problem.  You are thinking about this as Nash for Rondo.  Nash is close to a throw-in in that deal.  Gortat has become one of the best centers in the league, and is also one of the biggest bargains in the league.  He is the holdup, and they are right to ask for the moon for him.

Agreed.  The deal proposed in the original thread would have been a fair package for both teams at the start of the season, but since then, Rondo has had an up and down season while Gortat has been a top 10 center in the league.  

Of course, a big part of that is likely the Steve Nash effect -- which is the same reason Amare hasn't been nearly as impressive since joining the Knicks.  Still, talented 7 footers are worth a lot more than talented point guards in this league.

  Amare was fairly impressive until the Knicks traded for Melo.


I would put that another way.  Amare was impressive until the Knicks traded away Felton.  Amare is a pick and roll big man, and without a PG who can run the pick and roll, he is not very good.
Amare is a 20 point scorer and about 8 rebounds a game and has been fairly consistent in those numbers every year.  Last year pre-Melo trade he was an upper 20's scorer and still finished at over 25 a game.  Even with the disaster that was the Knicks starting PG situation this year he is still at over 18 a game.  To call him not very good is just plain silly.

Its all relative.  He has been significantly worse than he was last year, and I think that has largely had to do with playing with no PG so far this season.  He also has been out of shape, and it has really hurt his explosiveness.

Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #49 on: February 14, 2012, 04:13:06 PM »

Offline dtrader

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Rondo's, by the way, is actually ABOVE the league average for point guards ... his shooting woes are entirely overrated.

Nobody is saying Rondo's FG% is whack. In fact, it's always been pretty good. It's the fact that he can't make a shot past 15 feet even with all the space in the world.

Back on topic:

The sentiment over at PHX seems to be that Rondo is only as good as he is because he has the big 3 to pass to - it's something I think most non-Celtics fans believe to some degree.

As a first or second option (which Nash is, over there), no-one expects him to play to the standard required.

Rondo will be a great PG (assists-wise) on a run-and-gun team.
But what percentage of any team's opportunities are in transition. Because he can't shoot, and is afraid to penetrate as much as he could because of his FT% woes, he eliminates much of the gain his superior court vision affords him in a half-court offensive setting.

  Rondo's shooting from 16-23 feet is *above* league average, so your "fact" is clearly not true. He also has a higher usage rate than Nash, who *isn't* a first or second option in Phoenix. And he's top 5 or so for point guards so I think "afraid to go to the rim" is out the window as well. Your post may have been fairly accurate 3-4 years ago, not currently though.


If Nash isnt the Suns 1st or 2nd options, then who is?  The only other offensive threats on that team are dudley (who just camps out on the 3 pt line), and Gortat (who scores on clean ups around the basket, and pick and rolls set up by Nash). 3-4 years ago they actually had some talent surrounding him, so maybe then he wasnt the 1st option...this year everything runs through (and usually ends) with Nash.  He's definitely their #1 option.

  Gortat takes more shots than Nash, so does Frye. Hill takes the same amount as Nash and Dudley's pretty close. If you consider free throws, Nash takes about as many shots as Rondo, and most of our offense runs through Rajon as well.

As far as Rondos shooting from 16-23 feet being "above average"...The numbers dont even tell half the story.  He might have a higher fg% from that distance, but thats because he's left COMPLETELY UNGUARDED.  Every other PG in the league will be well defended there, so they should be expected to shoot a lower % than someone whose shot was uncontested. 

  Sigh. If you actually read what you quoted you'd see that I was responding to:

  "It's the fact that he can't make a shot past 15 feet even with all the space in the world."

  In that sense, your statement is pretty much useless. But beyond that, I'd point out that it's ridiculous to claim that every other PG in the league will be well defended there. I don't know if people only watch the occasional Celts game and only pay attention when they're looking for reasons to criticize Rondo, but there seems to be a lot of people who think that Rondo's left wide open on every shot but every other outside shot is contested like Paul or Ray or Kobe are taking them. That's not the case, plenty of wide open outside shots are taken in every nba game that's played, even by point guards.

Basically Rondo shoots completely uncontested 16-23 foot jumpshots at a slightly higher rate then average NBA players shoot them when they are being guarded.  Thats not a positive.  It's especially not a positive, if that "league average" being quoted includes 16-23 footers that are shot by power forwards and centers (players that would bring the "league average" down, but shouldnt be used as a comparison for the shooting of a guard).  If "contested 16-23 foot jumpshots shot by guards" was a stat that was available, it would be a useful comparison...and one I'd expect Rondo to fail miserably at.

  First of all, the stat holds true whether you're talking about point guards or players in general. Secondly, Rondo taking jump shots and hitting them at a higher rate than others is quite obviously a positive. Scoring points efficiently is somewhat important in the nba. Maybe instead of criticizing Rondo for only taking wide open jumpers, you should consider criticizing the shot selection of players that take contested 16-23 foot jumpers. Everyone knows that long two point shots are the least efficient shots to take, taking them while you're well guarded isn't very smart.

actually from what I've read, frye, (as well as hill and dudley) played in more games than Nash this year, and still took less shots.  Gortat has more shot attempts, but like I said in my initial post...thats because he cleans up everyones misses.  He's not taking more shots because he's the offense runs through him.  Plus, every team in the league knows that Nash is the suns 1st option, so they key in on him, and try to force the ball out of his hands (making lesser players beat them). Getting forced to pass out of double teams might bring Nash's FG attempts down, but it doesnt mean he isnt the teams 1st option...it just means that everyone knows that he IS the 1st option.

As far as the 16-23 footers....The fact that the initial statement said "15 feet with all the space in the world" IS important, but unless your point is that a professional basketball player being able to hit less than 1 out of every 2 wide open, unguarded 16 foot jumpshots is acceptable, then my statement stands.  That is NOT at all acceptable.  When Rondo is beyond 16 feet, he is given so much space that it's essentially a shootaround practice.  It isnt even comparable to other guards playing against relaxed defense, where they are semi-open to shoot. Rondo often has no one in the same area code as him on the perimeter.  No other guard is played as loosely, so a stat that doesnt bring the defense in as a variable is not representative.

Rondo taking and hitting jumpshots at a higher rate than others is great, but the stats are only really useful, if all the players compared in the statistic are playing under similar situations.  I'm not criticizing him for taking wide open jumpers.  The whole league should take them if available.  I'm criticizing him for only hitting 40% of them, when I think just about any other respectable starting guard in the league would hit around 60% if given the same amount of space.  Including the stats of post players in the %s only makes sense if you think guards and centers should be equally skilled perimeter shooters. That doesnt make sense to me personally, but maybe it does to others.

Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #50 on: February 14, 2012, 04:29:55 PM »

Offline CelticG1

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Quote
 Rondo's shooting from 16-23 feet is *above* league average, so your "fact" is clearly not true.

Do you think Rondo has been an above league average shooter from 16-23 feet this year ?
In raw percentage terms, yes he's hitting around 41% compared to 39%.

His overall spot up percentage is below league average however. What I think would be more telling would be his wide open make rate. I don't know where we can get that though.

yeah I would love to see this as well. Rondo is rarely if ever challenged on his.jumpers. It feels like he is pretty much wiiiide open on every shot he takes outside the paint. Theres a reason why people dare him to shoot and give him wide open looks. If he was truly, an above average shooter from that range Kobe wouldnt sag off 10 ft from his and.if he did rondo would make him pay by displaying that above average shooting.

Is there another guard in the league that gets more wide open jumpers than Rondo?

I'm really not trying to knock him but bottom line is at the very least he is very inconsistent with his jumper and it can not be relied upon in any form as part of our offense.

Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #51 on: February 14, 2012, 04:48:36 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Rondo's, by the way, is actually ABOVE the league average for point guards ... his shooting woes are entirely overrated.

Nobody is saying Rondo's FG% is whack. In fact, it's always been pretty good. It's the fact that he can't make a shot past 15 feet even with all the space in the world.

Back on topic:

The sentiment over at PHX seems to be that Rondo is only as good as he is because he has the big 3 to pass to - it's something I think most non-Celtics fans believe to some degree.

As a first or second option (which Nash is, over there), no-one expects him to play to the standard required.

Rondo will be a great PG (assists-wise) on a run-and-gun team.
But what percentage of any team's opportunities are in transition. Because he can't shoot, and is afraid to penetrate as much as he could because of his FT% woes, he eliminates much of the gain his superior court vision affords him in a half-court offensive setting.

  Rondo's shooting from 16-23 feet is *above* league average, so your "fact" is clearly not true. He also has a higher usage rate than Nash, who *isn't* a first or second option in Phoenix. And he's top 5 or so for point guards so I think "afraid to go to the rim" is out the window as well. Your post may have been fairly accurate 3-4 years ago, not currently though.


If Nash isnt the Suns 1st or 2nd options, then who is?  The only other offensive threats on that team are dudley (who just camps out on the 3 pt line), and Gortat (who scores on clean ups around the basket, and pick and rolls set up by Nash). 3-4 years ago they actually had some talent surrounding him, so maybe then he wasnt the 1st option...this year everything runs through (and usually ends) with Nash.  He's definitely their #1 option.

  Gortat takes more shots than Nash, so does Frye. Hill takes the same amount as Nash and Dudley's pretty close. If you consider free throws, Nash takes about as many shots as Rondo, and most of our offense runs through Rajon as well.

As far as Rondos shooting from 16-23 feet being "above average"...The numbers dont even tell half the story.  He might have a higher fg% from that distance, but thats because he's left COMPLETELY UNGUARDED.  Every other PG in the league will be well defended there, so they should be expected to shoot a lower % than someone whose shot was uncontested. 

  Sigh. If you actually read what you quoted you'd see that I was responding to:

  "It's the fact that he can't make a shot past 15 feet even with all the space in the world."

  In that sense, your statement is pretty much useless. But beyond that, I'd point out that it's ridiculous to claim that every other PG in the league will be well defended there. I don't know if people only watch the occasional Celts game and only pay attention when they're looking for reasons to criticize Rondo, but there seems to be a lot of people who think that Rondo's left wide open on every shot but every other outside shot is contested like Paul or Ray or Kobe are taking them. That's not the case, plenty of wide open outside shots are taken in every nba game that's played, even by point guards.

Basically Rondo shoots completely uncontested 16-23 foot jumpshots at a slightly higher rate then average NBA players shoot them when they are being guarded.  Thats not a positive.  It's especially not a positive, if that "league average" being quoted includes 16-23 footers that are shot by power forwards and centers (players that would bring the "league average" down, but shouldnt be used as a comparison for the shooting of a guard).  If "contested 16-23 foot jumpshots shot by guards" was a stat that was available, it would be a useful comparison...and one I'd expect Rondo to fail miserably at.

  First of all, the stat holds true whether you're talking about point guards or players in general. Secondly, Rondo taking jump shots and hitting them at a higher rate than others is quite obviously a positive. Scoring points efficiently is somewhat important in the nba. Maybe instead of criticizing Rondo for only taking wide open jumpers, you should consider criticizing the shot selection of players that take contested 16-23 foot jumpers. Everyone knows that long two point shots are the least efficient shots to take, taking them while you're well guarded isn't very smart.

actually from what I've read, frye, (as well as hill and dudley) played in more games than Nash this year, and still took less shots.  Gortat has more shot attempts, but like I said in my initial post...thats because he cleans up everyones misses.  He's not taking more shots because he's the offense runs through him.  Plus, every team in the league knows that Nash is the suns 1st option, so they key in on him, and try to force the ball out of his hands (making lesser players beat them). Getting forced to pass out of double teams might bring Nash's FG attempts down, but it doesnt mean he isnt the teams 1st option...it just means that everyone knows that he IS the 1st option.

  Check out the numbers, what you heard is wrong. And I think you're trying to redefine first option to help along your argument.

As far as the 16-23 footers....The fact that the initial statement said "15 feet with all the space in the world" IS important, but unless your point is that a professional basketball player being able to hit less than 1 out of every 2 wide open, unguarded 16 foot jumpshots is acceptable, then my statement stands.

  When I said his statement was false, my point was pretty much that his statement was false. Standing by your statement doesn't really affect what I said.

Rondo taking and hitting jumpshots at a higher rate than others is great, but the stats are only really useful, if all the players compared in the statistic are playing under similar situations.  I'm not criticizing him for taking wide open jumpers.  The whole league should take them if available.  I'm criticizing him for only hitting 40% of them, when I think just about any other respectable starting guard in the league would hit around 60% if given the same amount of space.  Including the stats of post players in the %s only makes sense if you think guards and centers should be equally skilled perimeter shooters. That doesnt make sense to me personally, but maybe it does to others.

  Post players don't matter, he's still better than the average point guard. I understand that you're criticizing him for not making more of his jumpers, but that's still a better thing than many other point guards taking the ones that they do. How much does it help the Spurs for Parker to take close to half his shots from 15 and out when his eFG% on them is about 35%?

  I'd also say, if you watch more games (or at least pay more attention to this when you watch games) you'll see a pretty fair amount of uncontested (or, at best, very weakly contested) long jump shots (including threes) and you'll be shocked to find that a lot less than 60% of them go in.

Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #52 on: February 14, 2012, 06:17:55 PM »

Offline chambers

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I have to say, I'm really torn on this one. (The JO, ROndo for Nash Gortat)

I have thought all along that we do not trade Rondo unless we get CP3 or someone of that caliber in return.

This trade as proposed might make us contenders for this year.

Obviously after this year, I would rather have Rondo, but squeezing one more title out of this group would be enticing.

At the end of the day, it wouldnt make use clear cut favorites so I probably wouldnt do it.

I've thought about this and I think that it turns our team into something like the Dallas Mavericks last year. That being an outside favorite who, if clicking offensively, can make a serious run.
We don't have Dirk, but having Gortat and Nash and Ray and Paul gives us offense from more outlets than the Mavs had.
Our defense is a given and Nash effects it negatively, but our help is our strength and our defense often covers players personal weaknesses- Gortat is an upgrade over JO (who is great defensively) because of his strength, athleticism and rebounding on the defensive end.
Ball movement is our biggest weapon on offense and having Nash means that opponents must honor his jump shooting ability- he's like a slower version of Rondo but can score at will from outside (including the 3 point shot) if needed.
We immediately get the pick and roll that Nash+Gortat have been running for a while now and we have the perimeter shooters to compliment that pick and roll ( just like Dallas).

Very tempting for me to say the least.

God I love Rondo though, and would rather a rebuild that focuses on a run and gun team with him as the second/third fiddle to some stars helped by role playing athletes.
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Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #53 on: February 14, 2012, 06:46:01 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Nash is too old for my tastes, not that they matter.

Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #54 on: February 14, 2012, 06:48:23 PM »

Offline jambr380

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Ughhh, it seems as though Rondo's value around the league has gone down and Gortat's has apparently gone up. In no way would I ever want to make the proposed trade by the OP. If Rondo is so undervalued, then I am perfectly happy keeping him on our team, even if clearing his contract gives us an opportunity for Howard and D Williams. Getting a player like Gortat doesn't really do anything for us in the future, though (and I feel the same way about Varejao). Any player we get for him has to be a major building block for the future or someone still on their rookie contract.

Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #55 on: February 14, 2012, 07:32:39 PM »

Offline chambers

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Ughhh, it seems as though Rondo's value around the league has gone down and Gortat's has apparently gone up. In no way would I ever want to make the proposed trade by the OP. If Rondo is so undervalued, then I am perfectly happy keeping him on our team, even if clearing his contract gives us an opportunity for Howard and D Williams. Getting a player like Gortat doesn't really do anything for us in the future, though (and I feel the same way about Varejao). Any player we get for him has to be a major building block for the future or someone still on their rookie contract.

I understand your reasoning, but I think this trade quite possibly makes us a contender this year. If Nash can last this year and next year, we really have 2 years on the championship window with a few other moves.

Starting 5 of
Nash
Ray
Pierce
Kg
Gortat

Is a significant upgrade over what we currently have.
What kind if building block do you think we realistically get for rondo at this point? Maybe a top 10 pick if we are lucky.
I would rather keep him than trade him, but if he is going to be moved ( which there's a reasonable possibility), something like this makes use of the best players/squad we are going to have for at least 2-3 years.

How realistic are our chances of d will and Howard? We could compete with that d will/Howard team with this line up.
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Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #56 on: February 14, 2012, 07:34:55 PM »

Offline PosImpos

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What do they seriously think they'll get for Nash at age 38?



Here is your problem.  You are thinking about this as Nash for Rondo.  Nash is close to a throw-in in that deal.  Gortat has become one of the best centers in the league, and is also one of the biggest bargains in the league.  He is the holdup, and they are right to ask for the moon for him.

Agreed.  The deal proposed in the original thread would have been a fair package for both teams at the start of the season, but since then, Rondo has had an up and down season while Gortat has been a top 10 center in the league. 

Of course, a big part of that is likely the Steve Nash effect -- which is the same reason Amare hasn't been nearly as impressive since joining the Knicks.  Still, talented 7 footers are worth a lot more than talented point guards in this league.

  Amare was fairly impressive until the Knicks traded for Melo.


Surely.

Still, not as impressive as he was playing alongside Nash.
actually he was.  Amare was putting up MVP numbers until the Melo trade last year.

MVP of a mediocre team, maybe.

Whereas the last time he was playing with Nash he was one of the best players in the league in the second half of the 2010 season and helped carry the Suns within 2 games of the Finals.
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Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #57 on: February 14, 2012, 07:36:22 PM »

Offline PosImpos

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Oh, and there's also the matter of the GM survey which was released a little over a month ago.

In that survey, Rondo was not voted into the top 5 in the "best passer" category.

He was noted for his toughness and his defense, however.  But I think most here would consider his passing his greatest strength, yet GMs around the league voted for Steve Nash, Ricky Rubio, and Chris Paul over Rondo.

  Almost all the votes went to two players in that vote. When you say "not in the top 5" that means a couple of players got 1 vote when he didn't. Beyond that, "best passer" is a fairly nebulous term. What exactly does it mean? What's the criteria? One definition might favor Rondo, another would favor CP3.


Maybe so, but the fact that GMs picked Ricky Rubio (a rookie) over Rondo was pretty shocking.
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Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #58 on: February 14, 2012, 07:54:41 PM »

Offline Inside-Out

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For Nash and Gortat?

Rondo, JO, a 2012 2nd rounder, 2013 1st rounder.

Nash/Bradley/Moore
Pietrus/Ray/Quisy
Pierce/Sasha
KG/Bass/JJJ
Gortat/Wilcox/Steimsma

That roster is loaded and tough.

Re: Phoenix fans take on Rondo+JO for Nash+Gortat...
« Reply #59 on: February 14, 2012, 08:12:47 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Oh, and there's also the matter of the GM survey which was released a little over a month ago.

In that survey, Rondo was not voted into the top 5 in the "best passer" category.

He was noted for his toughness and his defense, however.  But I think most here would consider his passing his greatest strength, yet GMs around the league voted for Steve Nash, Ricky Rubio, and Chris Paul over Rondo.

  Almost all the votes went to two players in that vote. When you say "not in the top 5" that means a couple of players got 1 vote when he didn't. Beyond that, "best passer" is a fairly nebulous term. What exactly does it mean? What's the criteria? One definition might favor Rondo, another would favor CP3.


Maybe so, but the fact that GMs picked Ricky Rubio (a rookie) over Rondo was pretty shocking.

  The fact that they'd pick Rubio over all of Rondo/Nash/CP3 before he ever played a minute of nba ball is fairly odd, I agree.