Grading Danny Ainge from 2003-11 (Here's your GM Boston)

[Donoghus]

Nice, well thought-out post.

[Roy H.]

Also - i forgot to mention this - Roy, yes Theo's contract was a big part of the KG deal.  But the next deal on the table for the Wolves was KG for Odom and Bynum (Odom having a fairly big, near max contract for LA that wasn't expiring till after the 2009 season.)  Theo's contract was very important to them, but I almost guarantee the Wolves would have rather had, say, Brandon Roy and pay an extra year of LaFrentz' contract.  That probably would have ended up in us, keeping, say someone like a Ryan Gomes, or maybe an extra first rounder.

Maybe, but maybe not.  In hindsight, that trade helped us acquire KG and a title.  If we'd drafted Brandon Roy, maybe Minnesota takes the Lakers offer, leaving us with the Big Al / Roy / Rondo core, with Roy ultimately blowing out his knees.  Maybe it *does* save us Ryan Gomes, and maybe because we have Gomes on the roster, we don't sign James Posey. 

It's too hard to say.  If we're evaluating on results, the results of that trade turned out brilliantly.  The Twolves got immediate cap relief because of Theo's expiring, insured contract, and we got a ring.

Jefferson and Roy back in 2007, looked like two legitimate young pieces to build around for years to come.  You can say, maybe/maybe not.

But it's really moot anyways because the point is back then, Ainge never thought much of Roy anyways.  It was either Foye or trading the pick.  I dock Ainge for that.

How do you know it was either Foye or trading the pick, though?  Until Danny makes a selection, we don't know who he liked.  And one of the reasons that GMs were thought not to like Roy much was due to his knees.  It's hard to dock folks too much for that, isn't it?  Danny could have drafted Roy, had the KG trade not materialize, and then given Roy a max contract.  Portland probably isn't thrilled with that course of events.

Even if Danny had drafted Rudy Gay, there's no guarantee we'd be better off.  If the KG trade doesn't go through (and I think you're trivializing almost $30 million in savings for Minnesota, between one less year of salary and insurance paying for Theo's deal), we're stuck rebuilding, we're trading Pierce, etc.  In hindsight, there's no way we can say that would have been a better option.

[celtics2]

I give Ainge an A. He gave us many thrills as a player now as GM is doing the same. It's not a perfect work of art but he accomplished what we were begging for. Now he has to find a way to set aside the starting team holding onto Pierce and Allen to come off the bench if the $$ can be worked out.

Yes a Tommy Point for your effort here.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I thought Sheed worked out quite well for us. Bad season, great post-season, a quarter away from the championship.

[guava_wrench]

Good post.

I think letting Posey walk was a good move.

I also noticed you left out an adjective when describing B.Roy - "retired".

[bdm860]

I actually read the whole thing, so I think you should give me a Tommy Point 

Good, detailed write up, although I disagree with a few things and some comments.

I believe the Sheed trade (Sheed to Detroit) was made to keep Sheed from signing with the Knicks in the summer, because he certainly wasn’t staying with Atlanta.  So Danny did that to hurt New York, make the division easier for us.

With things like the 2004 draft, it’s tough to say Danny wanted Swift or Luke Jackson or anybody else and would have taken them if available.  I know we see tons of reports of Danny loving these guys, but you never know what he’s really going to do.  I think a big part of being a GM is to NOT let people know what move you’re trying to make.  Maybe a team would have traded up for Al Jefferson, but thought he’d fall to later in the draft since they Danny was trying to get Swift or Jackson.  Maybe Seattle drafted Swift because they thought they could flip him to Boston for a little more.  I think there is really no way to know who the GM would really pick.  Even if Danny said it now “I would have drafted Swift”, I might not believe him (because he’s still a GM, can’t let people know his real thought process).

How can the Garnett trade only be an A and not an A+?  No Garnett, no success.   The Ray Allen and Garnett trades should both be A+.

I think the 2010 offseason should be an A, or at least a B+.  Best record in the league first half of the season with no Perk says a lot.  We added a lot of good pieces.
And you really think we should have signed Korver and Brewer over Jermaine O’Neal?  All we had was an injured Perk who may not even come back at all that season.  Shaq hadn’t signed yet.  We needed a Center.  Of course he didn’t work out that year, but we NEEDED a C, not wings.  (Although ironically, half way through the season, we needed more back up wings, and traded a Center for one, but then come playoffs we need big men again, go figure).

[BudweiserCeltic]

I think what has set Ainge apart from other GM's in my opinion, is not how good his trades have been or how he has drafted, but how he has handled the assets he has found himself with. He made a crappy draft choice? What did he do with that? Usually has found a way to make a decent trade at bring back value, etc. And that's the aspect of Ainge that I like. He certainly makes some faulty player evaluations and some bad trades, but he's always thinking moves ahead of how he can turn a bad situation into a good one, and that's all you can ask from a GM I think particularly when "potential" is quite volatile.

[bdm860]

A couple of things that makes it tough to grade GM’s.  You also have to consider the moves the team didn’t make (which is basically impossible).

Not re-signing Antoine in ’05, huge.  I think a lot of GM’s would have re-signed him.

Also rumored trades for Allen Iverson in ‘06/’07 and Baron Davis ’05.  Think what would have happened if he pulled the trigger on those deals. 

And who knows how many other countless trades or signings DIDN’T happen that could have.  Look at how many crappy trades and signings Isiah Thomas made.  Sometimes doing nothing is better than signing Jerome James or trading for Eddy Curry, Stephon Marbury, Penny Hardaway, Steve Francis, etc.

Also, I think we all need to look at GM’s like good baseball players, not good free throw shooters. If a GM is hitting .300 or over, he's doing a good job, if he's hitting .400 that's awesome, and .500 is unfathomable for anything more than short stretches.  You can't expect GM's to hit 80% to 90% of their shots though.  The percentages for good GM's are more like those of good baseball hitters, not good free throw shooters.

[Celtics4ever]

I like Ainge after the Pitino years.

[guava_wrench]

I actually read the whole thing, so I think you should give me a Tommy Point 

Good, detailed write up, although I disagree with a few things and some comments.

I believe the Sheed trade (Sheed to Detroit) was made to keep Sheed from signing with the Knicks in the summer, because he certainly wasn’t staying with Atlanta.  So Danny did that to hurt New York, make the division easier for us.

With things like the 2004 draft, it’s tough to say Danny wanted Swift or Luke Jackson or anybody else and would have taken them if available.  I know we see tons of reports of Danny loving these guys, but you never know what he’s really going to do.  I think a big part of being a GM is to NOT let people know what move you’re trying to make.  Maybe a team would have traded up for Al Jefferson, but thought he’d fall to later in the draft since they Danny was trying to get Swift or Jackson.  Maybe Seattle drafted Swift because they thought they could flip him to Boston for a little more.  I think there is really no way to know who the GM would really pick.  Even if Danny said it now “I would have drafted Swift”, I might not believe him (because he’s still a GM, can’t let people know his real thought process).

How can the Garnett trade only be an A and not an A+?  No Garnett, no success.   The Ray Allen and Garnett trades should both be A+.

I think the 2010 offseason should be an A, or at least a B+.  Best record in the league first half of the season with no Perk says a lot.  We added a lot of good pieces.
And you really think we should have signed Korver and Brewer over Jermaine O’Neal?  All we had was an injured Perk who may not even come back at all that season.  Shaq hadn’t signed yet.  We needed a Center.  Of course he didn’t work out that year, but we NEEDED a C, not wings.  (Although ironically, half way through the season, we needed more back up wings, and traded a Center for one, but then come playoffs we need big men again, go figure).

That is the problem with grading moves with knowledge of the outcome. Orlando signing Grant Hill turns out to be a horrible move despite being a no-brainer at the time.

[LB3533]

I think Danny's overall tenure as GM deserves a B or maybe a B+, he did bring us a title.

Danny can't get an A because he really messed up during his earlier years as GM.

I will never forget the John Carroll error, as much as I want to.

I will never forget Jiri Welch, the next Hondo, has much as I want to.

I will never forget Pierce egging his own crowd on when they were booing him after a missed showboat dunk.

I will never forget Raef missing practically the whole season and then the team needed to depend on a drunk Vin Baker.

Danny made a ton of earlier mistakes, but he has grown and he has matured and he has learned.

Case in point...he meddled with Jim O'Brien's coaching and he didn't acquire players that suited Obie's system. Danny has bent over backwards for Doc...when we were losing 18 games in a row, he never meddled with Doc's coaching.

Over the last 4-5 years, we've been able to experience very good to great basketball.

We've seen multiple hall of famers player with each other and young stars in the making.

Blowing this era up too soon is going to hurt a lot and it's probably going to kill anyone else directly involved. See how much Perk was in pain when he was traded. Take a look at how the team responded when Perk was traded away...it shook the team.

Ainge did very well this past offseason, our bench has players who can play solid ball. And our youngsters look like they can at least stay in the league with a given role.

Avery Bradley: as much of a train wreck he is on offense, he's got a place in the NBA due to his defense...I seriously doubt he will be out of the league like Gabe Pruitt or Lester Hudson.

Etwan Moore: he looks like an "instant offense" guy off the bench, maybe a Jamal Crawford type career if Moore is lucky. Though Jamal Crawford has starter type talent.

JJ: He looks like a mix of Lamarcus Aldridge and KG, I don't think is max potential is either of them, but he may turn out to be a very solid player...maybe a 1 or 2 time All-Star...a David West type career, hopefully.

These 3 plus BBD and Rondo are way better draft selections than Ainge had made earlier and in the middle of his GM career (save for Big Al, Delonte and Tony Allen.)

Great post OP, I enjoyed the hard work put into it and I enjoyed the read. Hopefully we can enjoy further discussion and not let this thread topic turn into a flame war.

[bdm860]

Danny made a ton of earlier mistakes, but he has grown and he has matured and he has learned.

Case in point...he meddled with Jim O'Brien's coaching and he didn't acquire players that suited Obie's system. Danny has bent over backwards for Doc...when we were losing 18 games in a row, he never meddled with Doc's coaching.

I might not use this as an example of Danny getting better.

O'Brien was in place before Ainge got here.  He probably wasn't the coach Ainge wanted.  So Ainge meddles a little and doesn't acquire (or trades away) the players the coach wants, and ultimately gets O'Brien to quit, leaving Danny open to hire his own coach without having to fire O'Brien and still having to pay his contract (and maybe avoids ticking off the fans too).  Now that Ainge has his guy coaching, he doesn't need to meddle, and since they have similar basketball/team outlooks, they want the same players (for the most part).

A coach and GM who aren't on the same page is doomed to fail.  It's always tough when the coach is hired before the GM.  So maybe this was an example of Danny successfully manipulating O'Brien. 

Just another way to look at it.

[PosImpos]

JJ: He looks like a mix of Lamarcus Aldridge and KG, I don't think is max potential is either of them, but he may turn out to be a very solid player...maybe a 1 or 2 time All-Star...a David West type career, hopefully.

Seriously?  He was drafted late in the first round and hasn't played even 48 minutes in the NBA.  I think it'll be a windfall if he turns out to be on the same level as Hakim Warrick; forget about having a David West career.

[LB3533]

Danny made a ton of earlier mistakes, but he has grown and he has matured and he has learned.

Case in point...he meddled with Jim O'Brien's coaching and he didn't acquire players that suited Obie's system. Danny has bent over backwards for Doc...when we were losing 18 games in a row, he never meddled with Doc's coaching.

I might not use this as an example of Danny getting better.

O'Brien was in place before Ainge got here.  He probably wasn't the coach Ainge wanted.  So Ainge meddles a little and doesn't acquire (or trades away) the players the coach wants, and ultimately gets O'Brien to quit, leaving Danny open to hire his own coach without having to fire O'Brien and still having to pay his contract (and maybe avoids ticking off the fans too).  Now that Ainge has his guy coaching, he doesn't need to meddle, and since they have similar basketball/team outlooks, they want the same players (for the most part).

A coach and GM who aren't on the same page is doomed to fail.  It's always tough when the coach is hired before the GM.  So maybe this was an example of Danny successfully manipulating O'Brien. 

Just another way to look at it.

This may be true, but Danny shouldn't have re-upped Obie's contract if Obie wasn't his guy.

I am sure they had conversations and meetings and they kinda found out they wanted the same things....initially.

Obie wanted to play uptempo ball and shoot 3's, but he also wanted to lock down on D with Harter's defensive system.

So Danny tried to get Ainge a shot blocking 3 pointer shooting big man in Raef...but Raef was hurt. There goes part of the plan.

Danny wanted to get an uptempo PG so he got Banks, but Banks turned out to be not so good.

So at the very least, Obie had parts of his defensive team with Tony Battie, Eric Williams knowing the system...but then Danny trades them away for Chris Mihm and Ricky Davis.

Now Davis is the best player in the deal, however none of what we got back from this Cleveland trade fit with our defensive system.

We might have gotten better offensively and we might have gotten more uptempo in personnel, but we got worse defensively.

Doc and Danny have a great relationship, but even then Doc wasn't safe from ownership...whom I believe wanted Doc fired, but Ainge was going to quit if Doc got canned.

This type of strong relationship has much more chance of success than the relationship that Obie and Danny started off with.

[KGs Knee]

This post definitelty deserves a TP!  Fairly well written, and obviously the OP put a substantial amount of effort into it.


As for the actual content, some I agree with, some I don't.  As Roy pointed out earlier, your point of reference seems to vasilate between "at the moment" and "hindsight".  I don't think it can be like this.  Also, I just see some of the situations differently.

I have a lot of thoughts on Ainge myself, but will focus on just one aspect.  The rest would require a post similar to the OP's in length.

-Ainge's off-season/in-seaon moves during the Big 3 era have been average at best.  

The Great:  Posey, House, PJ Brown, Bass for BBD.  These moves need no explaination, they are that obvious.

The Good:  Sheed, Shaq (for the value he was signed at-not necesaarily results), Peitrus, West (again for value-not necessarily results).  Each contributed in a meaningful way, but had there downsides as well.  Overall, these players were decent signings.

The Bad:  Letting Posey walk, letting TA walk.  Not giving Allen the 3rd year on a contract was a mistake. The additional $3-$4 mil next year would not hamstring us as much as people think.  Also, we wouldn't have likely needed to make the Perk trade.  It may not have changed the outcome last year (Rondo going down ended everything), but it was a bad move none the less.  Danny let TA walk just as he was coming into his own.  Suffering through all of his ups an downs only to let him walk just as he reaches his potential was bad.  Also, letting Posey walk was bad too.  People like to use Posey's contract against him, but realize this.  Posey's deal will be expiring this off-season.  Same as KG and Ray.  Our cap space would not be hurt.  Furthermore, having Posey on the books would not have prevented us from signing a single player signed since.  This supposed contract issue is a misnomer. We have not been able to find a legitimate back-up for Pierce since.

The terrible:  O'Bryant, Mikki Moore, Sheldon Williams, Murphy.  Not much needs to be said here. These players stunk.

Like I said, overall these moves are average at best in totality.  Considering, what has been at stake, I'd say Ainge gets a C- for these moves.   Some helped us win a title, others may very well have hurt.