A history lesson for those wanting to blow it up

[nickagneta]

Players drafted outside the top ten picks who are among the top ten in each draft class in career value according to win shares (skipping 2011 because of few games):

2010: Landry Fields, Ed Davis, Trevor Booker, Patrick Patterson
2009: Ty Lawson, Taj Gibson, Dejuan Blair, Darren Collison, Jrue Holiday
2008: George Hill, Nicolas Batum, Ryan Anderson, Luc Mbah a Moute
2007 Marc Gasol, Carl Landry, Thaddeus Young, Jared Dudley, Arron Affalo
2006: Rajon Rondo, Paul Milsap, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Lowry, JJ Redick, Craig Smith
2005: David Lee, Danny Granger, Jarrett Jack, Louis Williams
2004: Kevin Martin, Josh Smith, Al Jefferson, Jameer Nelson, Anderson Varejao
2003: David West, Josh Howard, Kyle Korver, Boris Diaw, Mo Williams
2002: Carlos Boozer, Tayshaun Prince, John Salmons, Luis Scola

Marc Gasol and Ryan Anderson are both legitimately All-Star worthy players who could completely blow up that string of years without an all-star.  By some metrics, Anderson is performing at an All-NBA level and could be this year's Kevin Love - a player who put up good per minute stats that didn't fade when given an expanded role.

The time to blow it up, if there was one, was in the off-season.  The lockout completely screwed that up. 

Can we get any more of an obscure stat to try to show that what I am saying is untrue?

Career value in win share versus that of the top ten players drafted within the same draft class regardless of whether that draft class was a good draft class or whether the players in question are the type of players you would build a championship caliber team around?

Did you look at that list of players? Are the Celtics really going to build the next championship banner of those types of players? I doubt it and that's why I think blowing it up is a bad idea.

[guava_wrench]

Also, I would expect from 2008-2011 to have "none" all-stars outside the lottery, because normally it takes a few years for players to hit their primes which is when they usually become all-stars.  Off the top of my head, there are players in this league playing at an all-star level right now who were drafted outside the lottery, but missed your 2002 cut off like Manu and Tony Parker.

And while all-stars may not normally be drafted outside the lottery, many very capable ball players do, who will eventually be needed to round out a contending team.

Bit of an opportunistic cutoff point? Stacking the deck maybe?

To be fair, Manu and Parker were drafted back when international wasn't scouted quite as well. But the 2002 cutoff is arbitrary and allows players like Pierce and Nowitzki to be excluded. This is the problem with data collection when we already know the conclusion we want.

2001 had Joe Johnson at 10, Zach Randolph at 19, Gerald Wallace at 25, Tony Parker at 28, Arenas at 30 (second round!), Mehmet Okur at 37 -- ALL all stars. I find it hard to believe that the OP didn't look at 2001 and innocently excluded it.

In 1999 Shawn Marion was 9, Ron Artest was 16, Kirilenko was 24, Manu was 57!

1998: Nowitzki 9, Pierce 10. The top 4 players at least (incl Jamison and VC) were all picked after the top 3. Rashard Lewis was 32. Brad Miller wasn't even drafted!

[guava_wrench]

Also, I would expect from 2008-2011 to have "none" all-stars outside the lottery, because normally it takes a few years for players to hit their primes which is when they usually become all-stars.  Off the top of my head, there are players in this league playing at an all-star level right now who were drafted outside the lottery, but missed your 2002 cut off like Manu and Tony Parker.

And while all-stars may not normally be drafted outside the lottery, many very capable ball players do, who will eventually be needed to round out a contending team.

Bit of an opportunistic cutoff point? Stacking the deck maybe?

To be fair, Manu and Parker were drafted back when international wasn't scouted quite as well. But the 2002 cutoff is arbitrary and allows players like Pierce and Nowitzki to be excluded. This is the problem with data collection when we already know the conclusion we want.

2001 had Joe Johnson at 10, Zach Randolph at 19, Gerald Wallace at 25, Tony Parker at 28, Arenas at 30 (second round!), Mehmet Okur at 37 -- ALL all stars. I find it hard to believe that the OP didn't look at 2001 and innocently excluded it.

In 1999 Shawn Marion was 9, Ron Artest was 16, Kirilenko was 24, Manu was 57!

1998: Nowitzki 9, Pierce 10. The top 4 players at least (incl Jamison and VC) were all picked after the top 3. Rashard Lewis was 32. Brad Miller wasn't even drafted!

P.S. These players combined could definitely win it all.

[nickagneta]

Let us also not forget that the Celtics used mostly later first round picks to put together the most recent title team.  The only lottery picks traded to get KG and Allen were Sebastian Telfair and what became Jeff Green.  Pierce was a lottery pick, but no one else on that title team that was drafted by the Celtics was drafted in the lottery. 

This is wrong.

They traded a #5 pick to Seattle - Green
They traded a #24 pick to Seattle - Delonte

They traded a #18 pick to Minnesota - Green
They traded a #15 pick to Minnesota - Jefferson
They traded a #13 pick to Minnesota - Telfair
They traded a #28 pick to Minnesota - Ellington
And they traded a pick back to Minnesota that was Boston's which I think might have ended up being a #6 pick in 2009 - Flynn.

So of all the picks they traded for Ray and KG, 2 ended up being top 6 picks, 2 ended up being top 15 picks and three were what would be called late picks.

[nickagneta]

Also, I would expect from 2008-2011 to have "none" all-stars outside the lottery, because normally it takes a few years for players to hit their primes which is when they usually become all-stars.  Off the top of my head, there are players in this league playing at an all-star level right now who were drafted outside the lottery, but missed your 2002 cut off like Manu and Tony Parker.

And while all-stars may not normally be drafted outside the lottery, many very capable ball players do, who will eventually be needed to round out a contending team.

Bit of an opportunistic cutoff point? Stacking the deck maybe?

To be fair, Manu and Parker were drafted back when international wasn't scouted quite as well. But the 2002 cutoff is arbitrary and allows players like Pierce and Nowitzki to be excluded. This is the problem with data collection when we already know the conclusion we want.

2001 had Joe Johnson at 10, Zach Randolph at 19, Gerald Wallace at 25, Tony Parker at 28, Arenas at 30 (second round!), Mehmet Okur at 37 -- ALL all stars. I find it hard to believe that the OP didn't look at 2001 and innocently excluded it.

In 1999 Shawn Marion was 9, Ron Artest was 16, Kirilenko was 24, Manu was 57!

1998: Nowitzki 9, Pierce 10. The top 4 players at least (incl Jamison and VC) were all picked after the top 3. Rashard Lewis was 32. Brad Miller wasn't even drafted!

Well guava you are 100% wrong and the reason is I decided to go out 10 years because I was hoping for a turnaround in less than a decade and wanted to show how hard it would be to do it through the draft using late round picks.
 
EDIT: If the only proof that the blow it up attitude will work is 11-13 years old when scouting was much different internationally and the best players weren't coming out almost exclusively after just one year of college, then color me glad I am not relying on that type of strategy to get us back to prominence.

[guava_wrench]

Also, I would expect from 2008-2011 to have "none" all-stars outside the lottery, because normally it takes a few years for players to hit their primes which is when they usually become all-stars.  Off the top of my head, there are players in this league playing at an all-star level right now who were drafted outside the lottery, but missed your 2002 cut off like Manu and Tony Parker.

And while all-stars may not normally be drafted outside the lottery, many very capable ball players do, who will eventually be needed to round out a contending team.

Bit of an opportunistic cutoff point? Stacking the deck maybe?

To be fair, Manu and Parker were drafted back when international wasn't scouted quite as well. But the 2002 cutoff is arbitrary and allows players like Pierce and Nowitzki to be excluded. This is the problem with data collection when we already know the conclusion we want.

2001 had Joe Johnson at 10, Zach Randolph at 19, Gerald Wallace at 25, Tony Parker at 28, Arenas at 30 (second round!), Mehmet Okur at 37 -- ALL all stars. I find it hard to believe that the OP didn't look at 2001 and innocently excluded it.

In 1999 Shawn Marion was 9, Ron Artest was 16, Kirilenko was 24, Manu was 57!

1998: Nowitzki 9, Pierce 10. The top 4 players at least (incl Jamison and VC) were all picked after the top 3. Rashard Lewis was 32. Brad Miller wasn't even drafted!

Well guava you are 100% wrong and the reason is I decided to go out 10 years because I was hoping for a turnaround in less than a decade and wanted to show how hard it would be to do it through the draft using late round picks.

You only included 9 years in your list and of course we can't judge the careers of guys drafted this season or even last, especially with guys drafted so young on average.

Regardless, the names I posted pretty much kill the theory.

[European NBA fan]

Players drafted outside the top ten picks who are among the top ten in each draft class in career value according to win shares (skipping 2011 because of few games):

2010: Landry Fields, Ed Davis, Trevor Booker, Patrick Patterson
2009: Ty Lawson, Taj Gibson, Dejuan Blair, Darren Collison, Jrue Holiday
2008: George Hill, Nicolas Batum, Ryan Anderson, Luc Mbah a Moute
2007 Marc Gasol, Carl Landry, Thaddeus Young, Jared Dudley, Arron Affalo
2006: Rajon Rondo, Paul Milsap, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Lowry, JJ Redick, Craig Smith
2005: David Lee, Danny Granger, Jarrett Jack, Louis Williams
2004: Kevin Martin, Josh Smith, Al Jefferson, Jameer Nelson, Anderson Varejao
2003: David West, Josh Howard, Kyle Korver, Boris Diaw, Mo Williams
2002: Carlos Boozer, Tayshaun Prince, John Salmons, Luis Scola

Marc Gasol and Ryan Anderson are both legitimately All-Star worthy players who could completely blow up that string of years without an all-star.  By some metrics, Anderson is performing at an All-NBA level and could be this year's Kevin Love - a player who put up good per minute stats that didn't fade when given an expanded role.

The time to blow it up, if there was one, was in the off-season.  The lockout completely screwed that up.  

Can we get any more of an obscure stat to try to show that what I am saying is untrue?

Career value in win share versus that of the top ten players drafted within the same draft class regardless of whether that draft class was a good draft class or whether the players in question are the type of players you would build a championship caliber team around?

Did you look at that list of players? Are the Celtics really going to build the next championship banner of those types of players? I doubt it and that's why I think blowing it up is a bad idea.

A starting lineup with three of these: Rondo, Batum, Millsap and M. Gasol would be pretty exciting and probably a superstar away from being a contender. But the chance of hitting 2 or 3 players with that level of talent late in one draft is very slim.

[Inside-Out]

If there are about 5 real keepers in every draft, perhaps a star or two, that's 5/30 or 1/6 1st rounders, right?  Broken up by about half are in the top 10-15, we've got two shots to get maybe the one star player that might drop out of the top 15.

Is that crazy, or is that pretty much what Danny would have to do with two non-top 10 picks to get a star in this draft?

[GreenFaith1819]

Thoughtful post, Nick.

I'm in it for the ride. I'm sure we all are.

I just hope Danny is...don't let these GMs under-value our talent. I'm sure the NBA would love for The Celtics to go back into another 20 year hibernation period.

At the end of the day, I'm sure even the most ardent "Blow it Up, trade everyone" Posters want nothing but the best for the team.

[Moranis]

Let us also not forget that the Celtics used mostly later first round picks to put together the most recent title team.  The only lottery picks traded to get KG and Allen were Sebastian Telfair and what became Jeff Green.  Pierce was a lottery pick, but no one else on that title team that was drafted by the Celtics was drafted in the lottery.  

This is wrong.

They traded a #5 pick to Seattle - Green
They traded a #24 pick to Seattle - Delonte

They traded a #18 pick to Minnesota - Green
They traded a #15 pick to Minnesota - Jefferson
They traded a #13 pick to Minnesota - Telfair
They traded a #28 pick to Minnesota - Ellington
And they traded a pick back to Minnesota that was Boston's which I think might have ended up being a #6 pick in 2009 - Flynn.

So of all the picks they traded for Ray and KG, 2 ended up being top 6 picks, 2 ended up being top 15 picks and three were what would be called late picks.

The only lottery picks traded to land KG and Allen, were Sebastian Telfair and #5 (Jeff Green).  One of the future picks turned into a lottery pick (but that was because it was Minnesota's and not Boston's), but it was a future pick and thus can't be considered as a lottery pick at the time of the trade (Green could be because it was known at the time of the trade it was #5).

EDIT: I was actually wrong, I forgot Wally went to Seattle and Wally was the 6th pick in the 99 draft.  Of course Ratliff (#18) and Gomes (#50) were also in those trades, which you left out as well.  

So in total 3 lottery picks were traded (but let's be real here Wally and Telfair weren't cornerstones of either of those trades) and frankly Boston essentially traded later 1st round picks (and I'm defining later as anything not in the lottery) for a top 50 all time player, why, because Ainge drafted well for a few years and correctly acquired multiple later 1st round picks, which he hit on.  Is there a guarantee you will hit on the later 1st round picks, of course not, but it does happen and happens often enough that it isn't a fluke.

[nickagneta]

Let us also not forget that the Celtics used mostly later first round picks to put together the most recent title team.  The only lottery picks traded to get KG and Allen were Sebastian Telfair and what became Jeff Green.  Pierce was a lottery pick, but no one else on that title team that was drafted by the Celtics was drafted in the lottery.  

This is wrong.

They traded a #5 pick to Seattle - Green
They traded a #24 pick to Seattle - Delonte

They traded a #18 pick to Minnesota - Green
They traded a #15 pick to Minnesota - Jefferson
They traded a #13 pick to Minnesota - Telfair
They traded a #28 pick to Minnesota - Ellington
And they traded a pick back to Minnesota that was Boston's which I think might have ended up being a #6 pick in 2009 - Flynn.

So of all the picks they traded for Ray and KG, 2 ended up being top 6 picks, 2 ended up being top 15 picks and three were what would be called late picks.

The only lottery picks traded to land KG and Allen, were Sebastian Telfair and #5 (Jeff Green).  One of the future picks turned into a lottery pick (but that was because it was Minnesota's and not Boston's), but it was a future pick and thus can't be considered as a lottery pick at the time of the trade (Green could be because it was known at the time of the trade it was #5).

Of course it was considered a lottery pick because everyone knew Minnesota was moving KG and would suck unbelievably in the next 1-3 years(they have actually sucked every year since).

So by your accounting they moved 4 lottery picks most in the top 6 for KG and Allen and a few of later picks. The later picks were salary filler along with Theo. What Seattle and Minny wanted were the lotto picks and Jefferson a mid round gem, not the later picks.

[LooseCannon]

Did you look at that list of players? Are the Celtics really going to build the next championship banner of those types of players? I doubt it and that's why I think blowing it up is a bad idea.

It's funny that I think that list is an argument for not blowing it up with mid-season trades because I believe it is possible to get some good value from two mid-to-late first round picks.  It's unlikely to get a star but not impossible and more likely than getting one via a trade in the next couple of months.

EDIT: Anyways, blow it up to me means trading bench players like Bass, Dooling, Pietrus, Pavlovic, and Wilcox for draft picks to teams that need depth due to inevitable injuries and going with a bench of D-Leaguers and draft busts received as trade ballast.

[Moranis]

Let us also not forget that the Celtics used mostly later first round picks to put together the most recent title team.  The only lottery picks traded to get KG and Allen were Sebastian Telfair and what became Jeff Green.  Pierce was a lottery pick, but no one else on that title team that was drafted by the Celtics was drafted in the lottery.  

This is wrong.

They traded a #5 pick to Seattle - Green
They traded a #24 pick to Seattle - Delonte

They traded a #18 pick to Minnesota - Green
They traded a #15 pick to Minnesota - Jefferson
They traded a #13 pick to Minnesota - Telfair
They traded a #28 pick to Minnesota - Ellington
And they traded a pick back to Minnesota that was Boston's which I think might have ended up being a #6 pick in 2009 - Flynn.

So of all the picks they traded for Ray and KG, 2 ended up being top 6 picks, 2 ended up being top 15 picks and three were what would be called late picks.

The only lottery picks traded to land KG and Allen, were Sebastian Telfair and #5 (Jeff Green).  One of the future picks turned into a lottery pick (but that was because it was Minnesota's and not Boston's), but it was a future pick and thus can't be considered as a lottery pick at the time of the trade (Green could be because it was known at the time of the trade it was #5).

Of course it was considered a lottery pick because everyone knew Minnesota was moving KG and would suck unbelievably in the next 1-3 years(they have actually sucked every year since).

So by your accounting they moved 4 lottery picks most in the top 6 for KG and Allen and a few of later picks. The later picks were salary filler along with Theo. What Seattle and Minny wanted were the lotto picks and Jefferson a mid round gem, not the later picks.

Wally was salary filler and Telfair was in exactly the same boat as Gerald Green and Ryan Gomes i.e. not a centerpiece.  Minnesota got a 2 future 1st's (one was its own back) and Seattle got #5. 

To claim Boston traded 4 lottery picks for KG and Allen is just plain silly.

[BballTim]

Let us also not forget that the Celtics used mostly later first round picks to put together the most recent title team.  The only lottery picks traded to get KG and Allen were Sebastian Telfair and what became Jeff Green.  Pierce was a lottery pick, but no one else on that title team that was drafted by the Celtics was drafted in the lottery.  

This is wrong.

They traded a #5 pick to Seattle - Green
They traded a #24 pick to Seattle - Delonte

They traded a #18 pick to Minnesota - Green
They traded a #15 pick to Minnesota - Jefferson
They traded a #13 pick to Minnesota - Telfair
They traded a #28 pick to Minnesota - Ellington
And they traded a pick back to Minnesota that was Boston's which I think might have ended up being a #6 pick in 2009 - Flynn.

So of all the picks they traded for Ray and KG, 2 ended up being top 6 picks, 2 ended up being top 15 picks and three were what would be called late picks.

The only lottery picks traded to land KG and Allen, were Sebastian Telfair and #5 (Jeff Green).  One of the future picks turned into a lottery pick (but that was because it was Minnesota's and not Boston's), but it was a future pick and thus can't be considered as a lottery pick at the time of the trade (Green could be because it was known at the time of the trade it was #5).

Of course it was considered a lottery pick because everyone knew Minnesota was moving KG and would suck unbelievably in the next 1-3 years(they have actually sucked every year since).

So by your accounting they moved 4 lottery picks most in the top 6 for KG and Allen and a few of later picks. The later picks were salary filler along with Theo. What Seattle and Minny wanted were the lotto picks and Jefferson a mid round gem, not the later picks.

Wally was salary filler and Telfair was in exactly the same boat as Gerald Green and Ryan Gomes i.e. not a centerpiece.  Minnesota got a 2 future 1st's (one was its own back) and Seattle got #5. 

To claim Boston traded 4 lottery picks for KG and Allen is just plain silly.

  I'd split the difference and call it 3, more or less. Going from Raef to Theo cost a lottery pick, more or less.

[jambr380]

Nick, I like your original post a lot and it really shows how difficult it is to build a 'star-studded' team with mid-range picks. I do, however, appreciate guava's input and he helped show that it isn't impossible given the right draft class, time, and a gm who knows what he is doing.

I do agree that 'blowing it up' really doesn't make a whole lot of sense, unless we are bringing back something very solid and on a short contract (Josh Smith type).

The other idea floating around is what we can get for Rondo, while holding on to the our expirings. While this is another way of blowing it up, if we could get a young potential star (Paul George and maybe Collison - again, not my idea) and a pick, then this would pave the way for Howard and Deron. And if that plan doesn't come to fruition, we have a young roster to build around.

I do not agree with trading for Steve Nash unless we get their ridiculously high lottery pick in the process. I don't understand the love for Gortat either - yuck!