A history lesson for those wanting to blow it up

[nickagneta]

I have read ad nauseum on this site calls for blowing this team up, trading the aging starters for picks and expiring contracts or two year contracts. We have to get bad this year and we have to accumulate picks.

Here's the reality, anyone willing to take on Pierce, Allen or KG are going to be contenders and they will get better for having one of those players on their team. The picks we get back will probably be in the late first round.

Can we mostly agree on that?

Good.

In rebuilding through the draft what you want to do is draft All-Star talent and get a bunch of those guys on your team and keep them on your team. Memphis and OKC are proof of this.

But how many All-Stars get picked after the lottery?

Heck how many All-Stars get picked after pick 6 in the draft?

Can anyone name me the last player to be drafted after pick #6
that became an All-Star?

That's right our own Rajon Rondo in 2006....6 years ago.

Picking outside of the lottery and trying to find All-Star level players is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Here is the list of players selected as All-Stars drafted outside of the lottery recently:

2011 - None
2010 - None
2009 - None
2008 - None
2007 - None
2006 - Rajon Rondo #21
2005 - Danny Granger #17, David Lee #30
2004 - Jameer Nelson #20
2003 - David West #18, Josh Howard #29, Mo Williams #47
2002 - Carlos Boozer #35

Now lets add some context. Rondo, West, and Boozer are the only multiple time All-Stars. Everyone else had an outstanding half year to a year that got them in. Heck, Williams only got in because of injuries to others and because his buddy LeBron cried like a baby to get him in. And Boozer is only on this list because he was drafted so low because of his injury his last year at Duke otherwise he was a top 5 pick.

The simple fact is trading away the Big Three to get late lottery picks and get worse this year is only putting off rebuilding by a couple of months. There is no set timetable for this team's return once rebuilding starts. It could be 3 year. It could be 5 years. It could be 8 years. It could be longer.

There's no proof that trading away the Big Three now and getting late picks for them is going to get us rebuilt faster. One could say that doing such a thing could slow the rebuild down because in order to trade them Danny might have to put long term salary cap flexibility into jeopardy.

So if there's no proof the trading away the Big Three is going to get us rebuilt faster, if getting All-Star quality players late in the first round is nearly impossible, if trading the Big Three could cause problems with the long term cap flexibility, then why blow it up?

To get so bad that our pick ends up in the 10-14 area and we get a less than 1% chance of landing a top three pick? Only 2 times in the last ten years has a team outside of the worse 6 teams ended up with a top three pick in the draft. The chances of being outside the worse 6 teams and getting a top three pick are astronomical.

And I hate to break the news people but no amount of trading the Big Three away and tanking are going to get this team into the 6 worse teams in the league this year. With teams like New Orleans, Sacramento, Phoenix, Golden State, Charlotte, Washington and Detroit in the league this year and the Celtics depth of talent, the chances of landing as one of the worst ten teams in the league, is probably already a moot point.

So, still wanna blow it up? The chances of getting so bad as to land a top three difference making selection in this year's draft is almost nil. The chances of drafting a difference making All-NBA level player outside of the top 6 picks or so are just about nil. The chances of landing an All-Star level player in the late first round with those picks everyone wants are almost nil.

So why not wait for the rebuild to begin after this season and enjoy the ride rather than harping on starting something that there is no guarantee will speed up the return of this franchise to prominence?

[action781]

Well said, Nick.  TP.  I'm planning on enjoying this potential last ride. 

The only thing that can be said about an accumulation of first round draft picks is that they have shown over the past year to be useful assets to include into trade packages for proven (even star) players.  Even if the GMs acquiring them in these trades don't realize that the picks may not be as useful as they hope, their value isn't in their actual value, but their perceived value to whomever is acquiring them.

[action781]

Also, I would expect from 2008-2011 to have "none" all-stars outside the lottery, because normally it takes a few years for players to hit their primes which is when they usually become all-stars.  Off the top of my head, there are players in this league playing at an all-star level right now who were drafted outside the lottery, but missed your 2002 cut off like Manu and Tony Parker.

And while all-stars may not normally be drafted outside the lottery, many very capable ball players do, who will eventually be needed to round out a contending team.

[ACF]

That was the best post I've read here in a very long time. It made a lot of sense. Thanks, we needed that, Nick.

I am going to stock up on the Kool-Aid and just enjoy The Farewell Tour. We may be going out but we'll be going out guns blazing and we won't have any bullets left when we reach the finish line. Go Celts.

[PosImpos]

I really doubt any such trade will become available, but if Danny had the option to trade any of the Big 3 for valuable future assets, be they 1st round picks or just reasonably young and productive players with potential on not-horrible contracts, he needs to consider that option.

Still, I really doubt that will even be on the table.

As others have pointed out, your list is kind of skewed because players from the most recent drafts haven't had enough time to bloom into All-Stars, perhaps.  Also, rebuilding isn't just about getting All-Stars.  It's about accumulating as much young talent as possible, developing it, and either trading it or fitting it together to gradually upgrade your team until you have a contender. 

The franchise talent is, of course, the key component of a rebuild, and to get one of those you need to draft high.  But first round picks, even late-ish ones, can have value if you draft well and make smart moves.

[nickagneta]

I really doubt any such trade will become available, but if Danny had the option to trade any of the Big 3 for valuable future assets, be they 1st round picks or just reasonably young and productive players with potential on not-horrible contracts, he needs to consider that option.

Still, I really doubt that will even be on the table.

As others have pointed out, your list is kind of skewed because players from the most recent drafts haven't had enough time to bloom into All-Stars, perhaps.  Also, rebuilding isn't just about getting All-Stars.  It's about accumulating as much young talent as possible, developing it, and either trading it or fitting it together to gradually upgrade your team until you have a contender. 

The franchise talent is, of course, the key component of a rebuild, and to get one of those you need to draft high.  But first round picks, even late-ish ones, can have value if you draft well and make smart moves.

The reason I only went back ten years is to demonstrate that if rebuilding, just how long it takes to make a player an All-Star, as well as how infrequently it happens if you are not drafting in the top 6 every year.

Yes, the recent years show no All-Stars after the lottery, that's because those picks take a long time to develop or just aren't that good. The best of the best will shine through right away and pay dividends immediately. But they are located in the top 6 picks every year.

Having a bunch of role players or fringe starters or the occasional solid starter or near impossible to find All-Star clogging the roster, trying to develop all of them isn't going to help this team.

I say, ride this out this year, hope for the best, rip this team apart in the off-season and start planning the trip to new York for the 2013 and 2014 and 2015 lotteries in hopes of landing a top 3 pick in those years.

Blowing it up now accomplishes nothing and I think history is on my side in showing that.

[Celtics18]

Tommy point to Nick for an excellent post.

[Q_FBE]

I agree with everything Nick said. Trading away aging stars for picks and stiffs is a path to multiple years of FAILURE!!! The team needs to evolve through what they have. We also should keep in mind to keep KG and RA if they want to take less money for the sake of good OL' Celtic Pride Ubuntu (CPU for short). There is no shortage of good role players out there. You just don't want to commit 50 million - 5 years for one of them. For every Anderson Varejao, there are FIVE Mark Blounts. Plus we don't want more aging stars on the decline like Vince Carter and Tim Duncan. They aren't going to beat Miami and Chicago in a 7 game series. We can make our pitch for DH(45% at the FT line but you shore up rebounding) or can try for some help next year to backfill for KG and JO if they do retire.

I would rather let the season play out and evaluate the needs later. I don't think we will revisit year after year of 24 and 58 after Paul Pierce retires but I can't rule it out. We could get stiffed at every turn and get relegated there but just don't do self inflicted damaging trades like Semih Harongody to Cleveland for a 2nd round pick that has lost quite a bit of value. The Perkins trade was a pure bust for Danny, ain't no sugarcoating that.

[2short]

sadly i can only give one tp for the post
it feels kind of odd to read a common sense & positive post on cblog

[OttawaCeltic]

Hmmm... interesting points... but still...
BLOW IT UP! BLOW IT UP!

Rondo to Suns for Nash+1rd pick(likely top 5, unprotected)
OR
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7k79qep +our Clips pick to Memphis

LETS GO AINGE!

[Tone]

either way we still have to blow it up

[wdleehi]

either way we still have to blow it up

One way, we have one more winning season to enjoy and don't take back mediocre talent and bad contracts. 


Then the team likely crashes to the point where it can get those top 6 draft picks.

[ACF]

Hmmm... interesting points... but still...
BLOW IT UP! BLOW IT UP!

Rondo to Suns for Nash+1rd pick(likely top 5, unprotected)
OR
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7k79qep +our Clips pick to Memphis

LETS GO AINGE!

[LooseCannon]

Players drafted outside the top ten picks who are among the top ten in each draft class in career value according to win shares (skipping 2011 because of few games):

2010: Landry Fields, Ed Davis, Trevor Booker, Patrick Patterson
2009: Ty Lawson, Taj Gibson, Dejuan Blair, Darren Collison, Jrue Holiday
2008: George Hill, Nicolas Batum, Ryan Anderson, Luc Mbah a Moute
2007 Marc Gasol, Carl Landry, Thaddeus Young, Jared Dudley, Arron Affalo
2006: Rajon Rondo, Paul Milsap, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Lowry, JJ Redick, Craig Smith
2005: David Lee, Danny Granger, Jarrett Jack, Louis Williams
2004: Kevin Martin, Josh Smith, Al Jefferson, Jameer Nelson, Anderson Varejao
2003: David West, Josh Howard, Kyle Korver, Boris Diaw, Mo Williams
2002: Carlos Boozer, Tayshaun Prince, John Salmons, Luis Scola

Marc Gasol and Ryan Anderson are both legitimately All-Star worthy players who could completely blow up that string of years without an all-star.  By some metrics, Anderson is performing at an All-NBA level and could be this year's Kevin Love - a player who put up good per minute stats that didn't fade when given an expanded role.

The time to blow it up, if there was one, was in the off-season.  The lockout completely screwed that up. 

[Moranis]

If the Celtics blow it up, the Celtics will get worse, and thus since they are barely a playoff team right now, will in fact end up in the lottery.  In fact, if the right trades are made, the team could be so bad it is guaranteed a top ten pick, in what is most likely the deepest draft in years.  If the Celtics then pick up a few more firsts, they could possibly move up in the draft, or trade them and utilize the cap space to get other players. 

Also, if the Celtics don't blow it up, what is exactly the plan to avoid the team from going into rebuilding next year.  The draft picks will be worse, the cap room isn't going to land a major star, so the team will be mediocre or bad next year, but won't have utilized the expiring contracts to pick up more assets.

Let us also not forget that the Celtics used mostly later first round picks to put together the most recent title team.  The only lottery picks traded to get KG and Allen were Sebastian Telfair and what became Jeff Green.  Pierce was a lottery pick, but no one else on that title team that was drafted by the Celtics was drafted in the lottery.