C's are clearly not contenders

[Q_FBE]

I am not counting on making it to the ECF or even the NBA finals this year. The talent and especially the physical stamina just is not there to work through a grueling regular season where we were clearly not prepared for and then make a significant post season run (winning at least two playoff series).  This is an evaluation year to see who we want on our team next year. A lot of players are playing for their next contracts so we should have an idea what their capabilities are. I doubt that any here is delusional about the Celtics being contenders for the 2012 NBA Championship. But then again I am getting a pleasent surprise of watching the Patriots playing in this years Super Bowl I guess hope springs eternal and the journey is the reward.

[BballTim]

"It probably will, though, because the 12th pick has much higher trade value, and is more likely to get us a more valuable young asset than the 18th pick."

It's not really true that a 12th pick is all that likely to get us a more valuable young asset than the 18th pick.  If you look through the draft history, you'll find that the 12th pick of the draft has not consistently yielded a better player than the 18th pick.

The reason that they say the draft is a crap shoot is because it's true.  Once you get out of that top 5 "can't miss" range, things always get a little murky in the draft.  (Even in the top 5, it's generally not that cut and dried.)  So, not only do you have to get lucky in the sense that the ping pong balls fall right, but you also have to get lucky (and a little bit good) with the player that you select.

Danny's going to have two players somewhere in that 15 to 25 range this year.  And, although it is a crap shoot, good players consistently come out of that group.  With two shots at it, I like Danny's chances of making good on at least one of them in what they say is a deep draft.  

Having the 12th pick versus the 18th pick, though, would give us a significantly more valuable trade asset.  We'd have a much better chance of being able to move up into the top 10 by packaging that pick with the Clips pick.

In any case, this is kind of a pointless discussion because it's unlikely that there will be any decent moves out there to "blow up" the team and tank for the lottery.  Probably not worth it to tank the season just to get a late lottery pick.  In that sense, you're right.

My original point was mainly that there's a big difference between picking in the late lottery / mid 1st for a few years and tanking to pick in the top 5-10 for a few years.  

If you hang out on the edge of the playoffs, you need to get fantastically lucky in the draft or have a great free agent destination to land a star.

  I'm not sure I agree with your overall reasoning on this. You want to begin rebuilding as soon as it's clear we're not title contenders, that I can see. But the only way to get to be a title contender (at least at the level that you want) is to get a franchise player. In terms of reaching that goal, the 12th or 18th pick isn't going to make a huge difference, and arguably gettign a 6-8 pick won't either. Grab some decent young players in the draft without getting a superstar and your team will improve to the point that you're less likely to get a superstar in the draft.

[tyrone biggums]

The main reason this all will not work is that the only teams that will take on Ray and KG are teams that feel that they are the missing piece for a title run. So what we would be left with is bad contracts and late 1st round picks. That is the harsh reality of this debate. Anyone who thinks otherwise that we will magically get a mid 1st or a lottery pick for KG or Ray is delusional themselves. Boston fans in general have been obsessed for the last few years with the notion of rebuilding and building a dynasty in sports, which doesn't happen overnight but you have to do this the right way. Why not simply let the contracts expire? Hell that's the argument everyone seems to make with the Perkins trade, that we would have been better off letting him just go and pulling off a sign and trade.

Why hamstring the cap for the next 3-4 years for the price of late 1st round picks that you can just buy from a team anyways? That's essentially how Boston got Rondo...they kicked in x amount of cash and some scrubs. Portland was notorious for selling their late first rounders for 2 or 3 years. This has happened before, there are other ways to get 1st round picks that won't screw the cap.   

[tyrone biggums]

So...do people still feel this way? They seem to be hanging tough with the Lakers tonight.

[indeedproceed]

Still not contenders, at least in the traditional sense of being among the favorites.

[vinnie]

Correction -- Neither the Celtics nor the Lakers are real contenders. They are both slightly better than average teams who will at best make it to the second round of the playoffs.

[esel1000]

if the celtics could REBOUND and DO SOMETHING IN THE POST then we'd be in much better shape right now

[PosImpos]

Correction -- Neither the Celtics nor the Lakers are real contenders. They are both slightly better than average teams who will at best make it to the second round of the playoffs.

Truth.

Below average offense, very good defense = good but not great teams, won't beat true contenders in the playoffs.

[CelticSooner]

These are the real C's we can expect to see come April and beyond. They don't even try and rebound the ball most of the time. Rondo can be a liability on offense when he isn't aggressive. A team that relies way too much on jumpshots.

That type of recipe doesn't work against good teams, especially in the playoffs.

[ManUp]

Correction -- Neither the Celtics nor the Lakers are real contenders. They are both slightly better than average teams who will at best make it to the second round of the playoffs.

Truth.

Below average offense, very good defense = good but not great teams, won't beat true contenders in the playoffs.

Yup, it's said because the winning streak had me sipping the kool-aid for a second and I had hope. Still have hope, but reality is kind of a B right now. FWIW, with every loss to a decent/quality opponent I think Danny is warming to the idea of blowing this team up.

[thirstyboots18]

This is your conclusion after the Celtics dropped three games in their last thirteen?   I see...

[vinnie]

This is your conclusion after the Celtics dropped three games in their last thirteen?   I see...

No - This has been my conclusion all year. They don't rebound and for the most part they have not beaten better than average teams -- 3 quality wins -- one versus Indiana and 2 versus Orlando. That's it.

[j804]

Correction -- Neither the Celtics nor the Lakers are real contenders. They are both slightly better than average teams who will at best make it to the second round of the playoffs.

Truth.

Below average offense, very good defense = good but not great teams, won't beat true contenders in the playoffs.

Yup, it's said because the winning streak had me sipping the kool-aid for a second and I had hope. Still have hope, but reality is kind of a B right now. FWIW, with every loss to a decent/quality opponent I think Danny is warming to the idea of blowing this team up.

You are right I'm even warming up to the fact that blowing up this team might not be the worse thing probably wouldn't even bother me 

[greensquirrel]

Anything more than a second round exit will be a very pleasant surprise to me. I'm ok with it, age is a b***h.

[tenn_smoothie]

And here we are 4 years later with a group who by all rights should have at least two banners to their name (sometimes i think Len Bias is still with us).

we've evolved into a team that still plays good defense ( though slower on the rotations nowadays) and is simply bad at rebounding and offense.

Age & Danny have taken their toll.