Author Topic: C's are clearly not contenders  (Read 29252 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #90 on: February 01, 2012, 07:02:37 AM »

Offline tyrone biggums

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1457
  • Tommy Points: 91
I do not want to watch a 5-7 year rebuilding plan once again.

Well, we're going to have to watch at least a 3-4 year rebuilding plan at some point, anyway.

Riding it out longer with this group just means it'll be that much longer before the team is really contending again.

We're probably locked into this group for the rest of the season, though.

exactly it makes me scratch my head when people say this with our core players being 34,35 and 36 .... do they expect these guys to play forever? they have already dropped off a ton from their prime..

Not at all, however, putting all of our stock into draft picks isn't a cure all either. If we take on bad contracts to get draft picks, which we would have to in order for any team to give us value for Ray or KG then its not worth it. I would rather just let them expire and see what the team can make happen in free agency. If Howard doesn't come here then great but I mean at least they tried before already giving up. I don't want to see a roster in two years with our next Vin Baker on the books.

For example, remember way back when the Celtics had 3 draft picks? The choices were Kedrick Brown, Joe Johnson, and Joe Forte. Brown and Forte never amounted to anything and Joe Johnson became a very good player. Its a deep draft and all, but there isn't that one game breaking talent in this draft that I would give up the cap space for.

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #91 on: February 01, 2012, 07:28:22 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

  • NCE
  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20090
  • Tommy Points: 1331
Tanking works but nothing is 100% successful.   This is not the kind of team you tank with with all the vets.  Tanking does not ensure the top pick.

I doubt Ainge can pull off a rapid rebuild.  We would have to sign a marque talent in free Agency.   We would have to resign some of our vets on the cheap and draft well.   It is going to be hard to pull all of this off.  There is no guarentee that a top talent will want to come here.  Which leaves tanking the next year and hoping we get a stud.  At best this means that it will be at least a three year minimum to rebuild.  As for trading assets now who wants them?   I think we over value our guys here in terms of what we can get for them.  They are older than dirt.  We are going to have to take back cap space to get anything for them.  The draft too is risky.  Ainge has found more players though in the second round than Pitino did in the first folks.  So I think we will do ok.

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #92 on: February 01, 2012, 08:38:12 AM »

Offline BballTim

  • Dave Cowens
  • ***********************
  • Posts: 23724
  • Tommy Points: 1123
I do not want to watch a 5-7 year rebuilding plan once again.

Well, we're going to have to watch at least a 3-4 year rebuilding plan at some point, anyway.

Riding it out longer with this group just means it'll be that much longer before the team is really contending again.

We're probably locked into this group for the rest of the season, though.

  Unless you think that rebuilding takes a fixed amount of time, starting it earlier doesn't necessarily mean ending it sooner. Cleveland was bad 5-6 years before they got LeBron, Orlando got Howard the first year they missed the playoffs.


I don't think it takes a fixed amount of time.

However, to the extent that rebuilding is based on acquiring draft picks, it basically comes down to rolling the dice a certain number of times until you get a franchise star or get a high enough pick that you can trade for one.

So the more opportunities you get to roll the dice, and sooner, the higher likelihood you have of landing that next centerpiece for your team.

In that sense, any season in which you are essentially playing for moral victories is a wasted opportunity to roll that dice.

  It's not so much simply acquiring draft picks as it is getting a franchise player, right? In that sense whether we have the 12th pick or the 18th won't really speed up the rebuild.

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #93 on: February 01, 2012, 08:53:51 AM »

Offline dark_lord

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8808
  • Tommy Points: 1126
how many people really thought heading into this season we were contenders?!  i think that is the delusional mindset.

although we werent/arent contenders, we are competitive.  when a team is competitive, especially with a history of "turning it on" in the post season, they might have an outside shot. do i think we win a title, no.  but i dont write them off completely, nor do i think we "blow it up".

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #94 on: February 01, 2012, 09:24:26 AM »

Offline GreenFaith1819

  • NCE
  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15402
  • Tommy Points: 2785
I think I can go with Dark_Lord's post, especially the last para.

Still shocked, though, to see this thread pop up after the buzzer sounded last night.

To me, what is the point?

I guess I can make the choice to NOT view or read the thread, but - that is virtually impossible, lol...under "Latest Forum Topics", how can a person MISS it?

So we HAVE to at least READ it (the title), which again makes one wonder.

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #95 on: February 01, 2012, 09:47:38 AM »

Offline PosImpos

  • NCE
  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12383
  • Tommy Points: 903
  • Rondo = Good
I do not want to watch a 5-7 year rebuilding plan once again.

Well, we're going to have to watch at least a 3-4 year rebuilding plan at some point, anyway.

Riding it out longer with this group just means it'll be that much longer before the team is really contending again.

We're probably locked into this group for the rest of the season, though.

  Unless you think that rebuilding takes a fixed amount of time, starting it earlier doesn't necessarily mean ending it sooner. Cleveland was bad 5-6 years before they got LeBron, Orlando got Howard the first year they missed the playoffs.


I don't think it takes a fixed amount of time.

However, to the extent that rebuilding is based on acquiring draft picks, it basically comes down to rolling the dice a certain number of times until you get a franchise star or get a high enough pick that you can trade for one.

So the more opportunities you get to roll the dice, and sooner, the higher likelihood you have of landing that next centerpiece for your team.

In that sense, any season in which you are essentially playing for moral victories is a wasted opportunity to roll that dice.

  It's not so much simply acquiring draft picks as it is getting a franchise player, right? In that sense whether we have the 12th pick or the 18th won't really speed up the rebuild.

It probably will, though, because the 12th pick has much higher trade value, and is more likely to get us a more valuable young asset than the 18th pick.

Plus, if we're talking about the difference between continuing to try to compete as a playoff team beyond this year or just straight up rebuilding, the difference between a top 5 or top 10 pick and a top 15-20 pick is enormous.
Never forget the Champs of '08, or the gutsy warriors of '10.

"I know you all wanna win, but you gotta do it TOGETHER!"
- Doc Rivers

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #96 on: February 01, 2012, 11:33:34 AM »

Offline CFAN38

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4964
  • Tommy Points: 433
Im against "tanking" we need to play every game to win. However im all for trading ray or kg(not likely for assets).

If we end up with say the 18th and 23 picks, then I would like danny to lock into 1 player projected in the 12-15 range that he thinks has the making of an allstar and go after him using both picks and one of our young guys (if needed). My guys would hands down be Rivers as I think he has the makings of a 20pt nba scorer and a smart all around game. Aside from rivers there are a few others like Quincy Miller,J Lamb, T Ross. Aside from the draft Ive also posted many times that we need to come out of this summers FA market with a center, either dwight or one of the young group coming free.

EXAMPLE for next season

Omar Asik (8.5 mill)[26], Steimsma (1.5mill][27]
Bass (6 mill)[27], JJJ[23]
Pierce[35],Green(5 mill)[36]
Rivers[20],Moore[23]
Rondo[26],Avery[22]

This unit has a good balance of young,young vets, and the captain.

As a starter i would expect 8pts 10rb out of asik,Bass 12pt 6rb,pierce 16pts 5rb,rivers 15pts (i could see him in running for rookie of the year) and rondo 15pts. Defence will be a work in progress but the potential will be there.

The bench would hinge on the recovery of J green and the development of avery ,JJJ,steim and moore. This bench is a running group that would struggle defending the post.
Mavs
Wiz
Hornet

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #97 on: February 01, 2012, 11:48:46 AM »

Offline Inside-Out

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 521
  • Tommy Points: 32
We absolutely could contend immediately simply by getting Howard.  That's really the only plan that I can see for a 2012 rebuild.

Rondo
Draft Pick
Pierce
KG
Howard

That starts Rondo, Howard, and perhaps PP and KG as all-stars.

Bench:

JGreen
Ray
J3
Moore
Bradley
Draft Pick
Steimsma

The bench offers Ray and JGreen for offense, Bradley for perimeter defense, plus some wild cards.

Howard is the answer for 2012, and its worth holding out for him.  After that, we'll see.

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #98 on: February 01, 2012, 11:49:43 AM »

Offline guava_wrench

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9931
  • Tommy Points: 777
I do not want to watch a 5-7 year rebuilding plan once again.

Well, we're going to have to watch at least a 3-4 year rebuilding plan at some point, anyway.

Riding it out longer with this group just means it'll be that much longer before the team is really contending again.

We're probably locked into this group for the rest of the season, though.
It is easy to forget that we did not miss the playoffs for an extended period of time during the last rebuilding. In fact, we were in the playoffs for 4 seasons up to 2005, before missing them the 2 years before the KG trade. Of course, we had Pierce when we went through rebuilding.

We can't really forecast what kind of contributors we will get through future drafts so we can't put a time frame on "rebuilding". What we can say is that it is a change of philosophy to acquiring as much future talent as we can instead of trying to get the right blend of players now to win it all.

Perhaps 2006-2007 was so bad that it felt like 5-7 years?

Of course, getting someone like Howard makes this all moot.

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #99 on: February 01, 2012, 12:00:12 PM »

Offline Celtics18

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11688
  • Tommy Points: 1469


"It probably will, though, because the 12th pick has much higher trade value, and is more likely to get us a more valuable young asset than the 18th pick."





It's not really true that a 12th pick is all that likely to get us a more valuable young asset than the 18th pick.  If you look through the draft history, you'll find that the 12th pick of the draft has not consistently yielded a better player than the 18th pick.

The reason that they say the draft is a crap shoot is because it's true.  Once you get out of that top 5 "can't miss" range, things always get a little murky in the draft.  (Even in the top 5, it's generally not that cut and dried.)  So, not only do you have to get lucky in the sense that the ping pong balls fall right, but you also have to get lucky (and a little bit good) with the player that you select.

Danny's going to have two players somewhere in that 15 to 25 range this year.  And, although it is a crap shoot, good players consistently come out of that group.  With two shots at it, I like Danny's chances of making good on at least one of them in what they say is a deep draft.  
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #100 on: February 01, 2012, 12:05:07 PM »

Offline PosImpos

  • NCE
  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12383
  • Tommy Points: 903
  • Rondo = Good


"It probably will, though, because the 12th pick has much higher trade value, and is more likely to get us a more valuable young asset than the 18th pick."




It's not really true that a 12th pick is all that likely to get us a more valuable young asset than the 18th pick.  If you look through the draft history, you'll find that the 12th pick of the draft has not consistently yielded a better player than the 18th pick.

The reason that they say the draft is a crap shoot is because it's true.  Once you get out of that top 5 "can't miss" range, things always get a little murky in the draft.  (Even in the top 5, it's generally not that cut and dried.)  So, not only do you have to get lucky in the sense that the ping pong balls fall right, but you also have to get lucky (and a little bit good) with the player that you select.

Danny's going to have two players somewhere in that 15 to 25 range this year.  And, although it is a crap shoot, good players consistently come out of that group.  With two shots at it, I like Danny's chances of making good on at least one of them in what they say is a deep draft.  



Having the 12th pick versus the 18th pick, though, would give us a significantly more valuable trade asset.  We'd have a much better chance of being able to move up into the top 10 by packaging that pick with the Clips pick.

In any case, this is kind of a pointless discussion because it's unlikely that there will be any decent moves out there to "blow up" the team and tank for the lottery.  Probably not worth it to tank the season just to get a late lottery pick.  In that sense, you're right.

My original point was mainly that there's a big difference between picking in the late lottery / mid 1st for a few years and tanking to pick in the top 5-10 for a few years.  

If you hang out on the edge of the playoffs, you need to get fantastically lucky in the draft or have a great free agent destination to land a star.
Never forget the Champs of '08, or the gutsy warriors of '10.

"I know you all wanna win, but you gotta do it TOGETHER!"
- Doc Rivers

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #101 on: February 01, 2012, 12:19:39 PM »

Offline dark_lord

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8808
  • Tommy Points: 1126

Still shocked, though, to see this thread pop up after the buzzer sounded last night.

To me, what is the point?

i agree.  it has gotten old real quick to see these type of posts created after every loss.  it would be the same if after every win, multiple threads created saying we win will win the title this year.

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #102 on: February 01, 2012, 12:28:32 PM »

Offline Celtics18

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11688
  • Tommy Points: 1469


"It probably will, though, because the 12th pick has much higher trade value, and is more likely to get us a more valuable young asset than the 18th pick."




It's not really true that a 12th pick is all that likely to get us a more valuable young asset than the 18th pick.  If you look through the draft history, you'll find that the 12th pick of the draft has not consistently yielded a better player than the 18th pick.

The reason that they say the draft is a crap shoot is because it's true.  Once you get out of that top 5 "can't miss" range, things always get a little murky in the draft.  (Even in the top 5, it's generally not that cut and dried.)  So, not only do you have to get lucky in the sense that the ping pong balls fall right, but you also have to get lucky (and a little bit good) with the player that you select.

Danny's going to have two players somewhere in that 15 to 25 range this year.  And, although it is a crap shoot, good players consistently come out of that group.  With two shots at it, I like Danny's chances of making good on at least one of them in what they say is a deep draft.  



Having the 12th pick versus the 18th pick, though, would give us a significantly more valuable trade asset.  We'd have a much better chance of being able to move up into the top 10 by packaging that pick with the Clips pick.

In any case, this is kind of a pointless discussion because it's unlikely that there will be any decent moves out there to "blow up" the team and tank for the lottery.  Probably not worth it to tank the season just to get a late lottery pick.  In that sense, you're right.

My original point was mainly that there's a big difference between picking in the late lottery / mid 1st for a few years and tanking to pick in the top 5-10 for a few years.  

If you hang out on the edge of the playoffs, you need to get fantastically lucky in the draft or have a great free agent destination to land a star.

Good. We agree then.  There's absolutely no need to be in a rush to blow this current team up. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #103 on: February 01, 2012, 12:59:55 PM »

Offline PosImpos

  • NCE
  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12383
  • Tommy Points: 903
  • Rondo = Good


"It probably will, though, because the 12th pick has much higher trade value, and is more likely to get us a more valuable young asset than the 18th pick."




It's not really true that a 12th pick is all that likely to get us a more valuable young asset than the 18th pick.  If you look through the draft history, you'll find that the 12th pick of the draft has not consistently yielded a better player than the 18th pick.

The reason that they say the draft is a crap shoot is because it's true.  Once you get out of that top 5 "can't miss" range, things always get a little murky in the draft.  (Even in the top 5, it's generally not that cut and dried.)  So, not only do you have to get lucky in the sense that the ping pong balls fall right, but you also have to get lucky (and a little bit good) with the player that you select.

Danny's going to have two players somewhere in that 15 to 25 range this year.  And, although it is a crap shoot, good players consistently come out of that group.  With two shots at it, I like Danny's chances of making good on at least one of them in what they say is a deep draft.  



Having the 12th pick versus the 18th pick, though, would give us a significantly more valuable trade asset.  We'd have a much better chance of being able to move up into the top 10 by packaging that pick with the Clips pick.

In any case, this is kind of a pointless discussion because it's unlikely that there will be any decent moves out there to "blow up" the team and tank for the lottery.  Probably not worth it to tank the season just to get a late lottery pick.  In that sense, you're right.

My original point was mainly that there's a big difference between picking in the late lottery / mid 1st for a few years and tanking to pick in the top 5-10 for a few years.  

If you hang out on the edge of the playoffs, you need to get fantastically lucky in the draft or have a great free agent destination to land a star.

Good. We agree then.  There's absolutely no need to be in a rush to blow this current team up.  

Not unless a move presents itself that will set us up better for rebuilding, no.

Just as long as we agree that at the end of this season, the Big 3 era is over and it's time to fill the team with young players and veterans on short deals and rebuild through the draft.

I'm resigned to this season being nothing but a bridge year since the Big 3 aren't really very tradeable and cap space is important to hold onto.  But after this season, it's tanking / young player development time.
Never forget the Champs of '08, or the gutsy warriors of '10.

"I know you all wanna win, but you gotta do it TOGETHER!"
- Doc Rivers

Re: Let us stop the delusion , C's are clearly not contenders
« Reply #104 on: February 01, 2012, 02:00:45 PM »

Offline Celtics18

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11688
  • Tommy Points: 1469


"It probably will, though, because the 12th pick has much higher trade value, and is more likely to get us a more valuable young asset than the 18th pick."




It's not really true that a 12th pick is all that likely to get us a more valuable young asset than the 18th pick.  If you look through the draft history, you'll find that the 12th pick of the draft has not consistently yielded a better player than the 18th pick.

The reason that they say the draft is a crap shoot is because it's true.  Once you get out of that top 5 "can't miss" range, things always get a little murky in the draft.  (Even in the top 5, it's generally not that cut and dried.)  So, not only do you have to get lucky in the sense that the ping pong balls fall right, but you also have to get lucky (and a little bit good) with the player that you select.

Danny's going to have two players somewhere in that 15 to 25 range this year.  And, although it is a crap shoot, good players consistently come out of that group.  With two shots at it, I like Danny's chances of making good on at least one of them in what they say is a deep draft.  



Having the 12th pick versus the 18th pick, though, would give us a significantly more valuable trade asset.  We'd have a much better chance of being able to move up into the top 10 by packaging that pick with the Clips pick.

In any case, this is kind of a pointless discussion because it's unlikely that there will be any decent moves out there to "blow up" the team and tank for the lottery.  Probably not worth it to tank the season just to get a late lottery pick.  In that sense, you're right.

My original point was mainly that there's a big difference between picking in the late lottery / mid 1st for a few years and tanking to pick in the top 5-10 for a few years.  

If you hang out on the edge of the playoffs, you need to get fantastically lucky in the draft or have a great free agent destination to land a star.

Good. We agree then.  There's absolutely no need to be in a rush to blow this current team up.  

Not unless a move presents itself that will set us up better for rebuilding, no.

Just as long as we agree that at the end of this season, the Big 3 era is over and it's time to fill the team with young players and veterans on short deals and rebuild through the draft.

I'm resigned to this season being nothing but a bridge year since the Big 3 aren't really very tradeable and cap space is important to hold onto.  But after this season, it's tanking / young player development time.

I'll partially agree to that.  I do think it's time to start getting young players into the mix after this season, but I'll entertain the notion of Ray and Kevin coming back if they'll do it cheaply enough.  Otherwise, I agree that it's "thank you for your service and good luck in your future endeavors" for them.

As far as Paul goes, he stays until his contract is up as far as I'm concerned. 

I'm still not interested in a rush to the bottom, though.  We have an off-season coming up where we are in a very good position to attain good young assets even if it's not of the superstar variety.  I don't mind having a decent team that's not a likely title contender for the next couple of years while Danny wheels and deals to put us back in contender status.  If it also takes a "natural" tank year or two at some point along the way, then so be it. 

I'm staunchly philosophically opposed to the "blatant" tank method that so many espouse, though.  This idea that many fans seem to have that you do whatever it takes to accrue losses just goes against the competitive grain, and I don't actually think it works.

Working towards building a culture of losing does not make your team better in the long run.   
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson